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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
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Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509260 times)
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January 29, 2012, 01:46:47 PM
 #1881

proudhon: the update was actually quite bullish.

I thought it was very neutral. I read it as if it goes down, it might go down more, and if it goes up, it might go up more... But as almost always the bullish side was stressed.
So the analysis acts as an amplifier for either direction.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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January 29, 2012, 01:52:48 PM
 #1882

I used it together with chodpaba graphs and decided that there is too much risk that the support zone will be broken.  And also on the up side it was rather difficult climb - both because of chodpaba graphs and asks on tradehill.
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January 29, 2012, 02:16:47 PM
 #1883

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoiniсa 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

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January 29, 2012, 02:44:46 PM
 #1884

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoiniсa 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

Hmm. Would this end up looking more or less like the spikes we've been seeing lately? (such as the several pushes to 5.4 in the last day or so)

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January 29, 2012, 03:11:57 PM
 #1885

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoiniсa 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

this works, it was much much more profitable around $3 or so a few weeks back.
Who loses on that?  bitcoinica?  So they are a bucket shot after all?
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January 29, 2012, 03:23:53 PM
 #1886

sometimes does not work  Grin

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Who loses on that?  bitcoinica?  So they are a bucket shot after all?
nope ... bitkoinica nothing to lose ... losing those who hold rates there for a long time ...

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January 29, 2012, 08:15:03 PM
 #1887

Juts issued an interim bitcoin technical analysis update in the subscriber section.

As the content of this S3052's analysis is private only to subscribed members, I would vote to make the notifications about private too. I know that some PR is always needed, but this reveals hints to the market. Instead, do some week-ago or so POST MORTEM analysis, where you will publish the previous analysis and discuss the outcome.


I agree. At the same time, I want to stress that the private updates should remain private and not revealed here.

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January 30, 2012, 03:59:12 AM
 #1888

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoiniсa 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

this works, it was much much more profitable around $3 or so a few weeks back.
Who loses on that?  bitcoinica?  So they are a bucket shot after all?

Losers are those that react to the sudden move and try to chase it.  You can only take profits on Bitcoinica when someone will take your position at a profitable price.  If you trigger a crossover a lot of people are watching, it can work out pretty well for you.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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January 30, 2012, 05:40:57 PM
 #1889

proudhon: the update was actually quite bullish.

I read the update as neutral. There was no affirmation without a precondition. He didn't even say one way was more likely than the other.

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January 30, 2012, 05:42:53 PM
 #1890

proudhon: the update was actually quite bullish.

I thought it was very neutral. I read it as if it goes down, it might go down more, and if it goes up, it might go up more... But as almost always the bullish side was stressed.

lol. almost exactly what I wrote, could've just +1'd you.

note to self: read all comments before posting.

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January 30, 2012, 07:21:40 PM
 #1891

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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January 30, 2012, 07:36:49 PM
 #1892

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

The Weather: It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
(The season will change)
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated. (We don't know exactly what the weather will be.)

Weather is more predictable than markets.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 30, 2012, 07:38:29 PM
 #1893

I just stopped selling (just kidding)  Cheesy

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January 30, 2012, 08:07:10 PM
 #1894



Chodpaba,

CONGRATS!!!

You opened the 100th page of this thread, and even with a great picture.


I still remember the day when I opened the thread and bitcoin was only having few followers and the BTCUSD price was 0.1 $.

Amazing times..

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January 30, 2012, 09:33:30 PM
 #1895

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.


I hope you didn't take my previous comment as negative criticism... if nothing can be said about the direction, a neutral update is the right thing and knowing the trigger levels is valuable information nevertheless.

So far your short term update seems to be on track... (I hope that didn't reveal too much about the content)

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January 30, 2012, 09:45:38 PM
 #1896



Chodpaba,

CONGRATS!!!

You opened the 100th page of this thread, and even with a great picture.


I still remember the day when I opened the thread and bitcoin was only having few followers and the BTCUSD price was 0.1 $.

Amazing times..


Were you mining on C64s back then?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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January 30, 2012, 11:01:17 PM
 #1897

cbeast, I'm assuming you're arguing that s3052s' report doesn't contain much substance, right? I'm also assuming your post was meant half-jokingly, so please see mine in the same light.

Weather is more predictable than markets.

exactly, that's why your weather-analogy doesn't work so well.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture. (The season will change)

bitcoin does not have a strong seasonal predictability like weather does, and that's why the mid and long term preditctions of s3052s' report actually have substance as opposed to the outlook that spring will come for the northern hemisphere.

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January 30, 2012, 11:05:38 PM
 #1898

Were you mining on C64s back then?

ZX Spectrum FTW.  Wink
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January 30, 2012, 11:15:44 PM
 #1899

Were you mining on C64s back then?

ZX Spectrum FTW.  Wink



busch microtronic, has a TMS 1600 (4 bit), overclocked to 800 kHz

still trying to find a way to fit sha256 somehow Sad

sorry to pollute the 100th page of the thread with pic

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this statement is false


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January 30, 2012, 11:23:26 PM
 #1900

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

The Weather: It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
(The season will change)
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated. (We don't know exactly what the weather will be.)

Weather is more predictable than markets.


markets are as predictable as weather.

i actually made this point in another thread; it's not a negative thing to say about technical analysis...

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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