Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

Again, Elliott wave theory has helped tremendously to anticipate the sell off over the past 48 hours.

Here is the chart posted to subscribers before the break down:



And here is the updated chart afterwards:




We are also announcing a special 3 for 2 winter promotion:


For 9.90 BTC, you will get 3 months of subscription
- for the price of less than 2 normal monthly fees. Just send an email to S3052@gmx.ch and pay by Feb 16, midnight. You will get a dedicated BTC address from us.

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[Crypt_Current]

I'm pretty happy with the subscription so far S3052 -- thanks for your service!

[zby]

Again, Elliott wave theory has helped tremendously to anticipate the sell off over the past 48 hours.

Here is the chart posted to subscribers before the break down:



And here is the updated chart afterwards:




We are also announcing a special 3 for 2 winter promotion:


For 9.90 BTC, you will get 3 months of subscription
- for the price of less than 2 normal monthly fees. Just send an email to S3052@gmx.ch and pay by Feb 16, midnight. You will get a dedicated BTC address from us.

So we bounced from 4.21 instead of from 4 and it was at 4.9 - breaking your red line at 4.64 - does that mean that we broke that down trend earlier?

[Crypt_Current]

Again, Elliott wave theory has helped tremendously to anticipate the sell off over the past 48 hours.

Here is the chart posted to subscribers before the break down:



And here is the updated chart afterwards:




We are also announcing a special 3 for 2 winter promotion:


For 9.90 BTC, you will get 3 months of subscription
- for the price of less than 2 normal monthly fees. Just send an email to S3052@gmx.ch and pay by Feb 16, midnight. You will get a dedicated BTC address from us.

So we bounced from 4.21 instead of from 4 and it was at 4.9 - breaking your red line at 4.64 - does that mean that we broke that down trend earlier?

If I am understanding correctly, no, because price will remain in the pink channel and so there is probably room for more downside

[notme]

Except the bottom of the pink channel is only connected to one real price point and the target point... that's like saying "we haven't hit the target, so we may still hit the target".

[BrightAnarchist]

I have my own analysis of the recent fall in price, on my blog: http://goxxed.blogspot.com/2012/02/btc-back-in-bear-market.html

To summarize, I think this means stocks have topped due to a major non-confirmation between the S&P and BTC, which has been the pattern for the past couple years - you may put me on record saying that

[jimbobway]

I have my own analysis of the recent fall in price, on my blog: http://goxxed.blogspot.com/2012/02/btc-back-in-bear-market.html

To summarize, I think this means stocks have topped due to a major non-confirmation between the S&P and BTC, which has been the pattern for the past couple years - you may put me on record saying that

Interesting.  What is your reasoning on why BTC and S&P are very closely related?

[BrightAnarchist]

I have my own analysis of the recent fall in price, on my blog: http://goxxed.blogspot.com/2012/02/btc-back-in-bear-market.html

To summarize, I think this means stocks have topped due to a major non-confirmation between the S&P and BTC, which has been the pattern for the past couple years - you may put me on record saying that

Modeling $/BTC as a stock is one of the least meaningful, and more persistent myths plaguing Bitcoin...

I do not think of BTC as a stock, I am merely commenting that at the present time all financial assets are highly correlated as a result of the influence of the wildly oversized credit markets ( think giant world-wide debt bubble ). Thus far BTC price movements have also been highly correlated.

Really though this is more of a comment about the financial markets in general at their present juncture, and so not really specific to Bitcoin.

[miscreanity]

I have my own analysis of the recent fall in price, on my blog: http://goxxed.blogspot.com/2012/02/btc-back-in-bear-market.html

There hasn't been a BTC bear market... unless you're daytrading.

[S3052]

I have my own analysis of the recent fall in price, on my blog: http://goxxed.blogspot.com/2012/02/btc-back-in-bear-market.html

To summarize, I think this means stocks have topped due to a major non-confirmation between the S&P and BTC, which has been the pattern for the past couple years - you may put me on record saying that

Modeling $/BTC as a stock is one of the least meaningful, and more persistent myths plaguing Bitcoin...

I violently disagree, the past 18 months of technical analysis of the bitcoin markets has shown that it can be analyzed and predicted in the same way as the stock market and other financial markets.
Herding behavior and psychology is the same everywhere.

[waveaddict]

indeed it is 

I have my own analysis of the recent fall in price, on my blog: http://goxxed.blogspot.com/2012/02/btc-back-in-bear-market.html

To summarize, I think this means stocks have topped due to a major non-confirmation between the S&P and BTC, which has been the pattern for the past couple years - you may put me on record saying that

Modeling $/BTC as a stock is one of the least meaningful, and more persistent myths plaguing Bitcoin...

I violently disagree, the past 18 months of technical analysis of the bitcoin markets has shown that it can be analyzed and predicted in the same way as the stock market and other financial markets.
Herding behavior and psychology is the same everywhere.

[S3052]

I have my own analysis of the recent fall in price, on my blog: http://goxxed.blogspot.com/2012/02/btc-back-in-bear-market.html

To summarize, I think this means stocks have topped due to a major non-confirmation between the S&P and BTC, which has been the pattern for the past couple years - you may put me on record saying that

Modeling $/BTC as a stock is one of the least meaningful, and more persistent myths plaguing Bitcoin...

I violently disagree, the past 18 months of technical analysis of the bitcoin markets has shown that it can be analyzed and predicted in the same way as the stock market and other financial markets.
Herding behavior and psychology is the same everywhere.

I can not believe such a daft, and factually incorrect pronouncement coming from you sir.

You may be able to use the same tools to analyse $/BTC but it is not, in fact, behaving as a stock.  If it were it would be correlated with the stock market as stocks are. But it is not. $/BTC is an asset class quite different from stocks.

Disagree violently as you wish... Facts is facts.

In fact, after clarifying what you mean, we AGREE 100% :-)

I agree that BTC is NOT correlated to the stock market. My only point was that the BTCUSD market can be analysed well using techniques known from stock markets and other financial markets, namely technical analysis

[N12]

But the Nagle chart is great! He was even logged in yesterday. Wish he would say something.

BTC/USD, last 5 months, with 30 day trailing moving average.

I've been saying "long, slow slide" for months.

It's still not clear what the endgame is. It hardly matters at this point, though. As I point out occasionally, if one business the size of a typical single supermarket used Bitcoins, liquidating their daily receipts would crash the market.  Bitcoin is now too dinky to be used as a currency.

THE ENDGAME, WHAT IS THE ENDGAME NAGLE

[molecular]

herding behavior, you are the Shepherd and we the sheep 

and the smart sheep stay with the crowd

[molecular]

herding behavior, you are the Shepherd and we the sheep 

and the smart sheep stay with the crowd

in the fold! there are wolves in the crowd 

[Spekulatius]

Hi S3052,

Hope u dont mind me posting my analysises in your thread. Maybe it could provide some input for yours? Also, if you like it pls comment.
Because it fits in here better then the original thread I just quote my posts here:

Can you feel it now, Bears? Can you feel the cognitive dissonance now?

Will you recognize it early enough to get your coins back, and perhaps some more?

We shouldnt rejoyce too early! There is no breakout of the downturn, unless 4.80 $ and later the weeker resistance of 4.90 $ is broken.
Furthermore, we are dancing on the edge here (support at 4.30 $).



Hope you dont develop a cognitive dissonance from that Blitzboom

Zoom out and look at the alltime chart + volumes. The resistance is meaningless. What people have done for 6 days consecutively now will break it without a problem. The question is how much resistance the broken long-term trendline will pose in the mid 5s.

But I’ll remember your view, thanks for the reminder.

Lets look at some indicators:



+ The volume you mentioned is indeed indicating a declining selling interest. What a rising price needs now however is rising volume with the price going up at the same time to confirm a recovery. Unless the breakout (look my 2 posts up) at around 4.8 $ is not achieved the intermediate recovery could only be called consolidation and is bound to go down further.
+ RSI is positive (but could down further)
+ We have reached pre-rally level (most bubbles I know of ease out around or sligthly above this level)

- EMA 10 and 21 are negative
- Parabolic SAR is negative as well (not in picture)
- overall market sentiment didnt reach capitulation/despondence yet in my perception
- lots of FUD lately, new bad news every day (FINCen, bitcoinica legal complaint,..)
- in order to generate a positive indicator the "cup & handle" chart pattern visible in every 5 day intervall needs to close above 4.9$, otherwise a further drop is likely

+- What are Manipulators doing? Not much activity lately --> A impending major move becomes more and more likely the more we progress in time

In conclusion, I am more bearish rigth now. Everything depends on a breakthrough 4.8$ (4.9$) to confirm or reverse these indicators.

Thanks for sharing your views

[M4v3R]

My humble take on recent charts:



Lower tops, lower bottoms. We're not done yet with this bear market.

[S3052]

I agree, there is more bearish potential unless 4.8 $ and even more importantly, 5.5 $ are broken to the upside.

[S3052]

We just issued the second update to subscribers for today, including a new in depth Elliott Wave analysis and two competing short and mid term scenarios.

If any new person wants to subscribe, there is a 3 BTC trial period for the first month. Just send an email to S3052@gmx.ch

[S3052]

Here is a new bitcoin mid term chart analysis and forecast http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/

And also, for new people interested (i) to receive bitcoin price forecasts and (ii) trading advice and training:

You can get a -40% trial offer for 3 BTC if you subscribe until Feb 22:
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