Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

400x profits are not unheard of nor uncommon in bitcoin land.

I know that, but there's a difference between 400X profits and outperforming the market by 400X. You can get 400X profits just by buying and holding long enough. Beating the market by 40,000% is a different thing entirely.

[podyx]

Why are we going down??

[cbutters]

Why are we going down??

It can't be all straight up right now.... we will bounce around and it will be a tough battle to get outside of the descending triangle.... we are almost through though.... might take a few weeks, but we are having a 50% retracement on the last few days movements. Normal market forces at work... There is heavy resistance going up, and moving up and down will help churn that resistance out.

[podyx]

Why are we going down??

It can't be all straight up right now.... we will bounce around and it will be a tough battle to get outside of the descending triangle.... we are almost through though.... might take a few weeks, but we are having a 50% retracement on the last few days movements. Normal market forces at work... There is heavy resistance going up, and moving up and down will help churn that resistance out.

I guess so

[PoolMinor]

The FBI will clarify that bitcoin is a terrorist weapon, since its stated purpose is to destroy the US government and economy.

And the DEA will consider it an addictive drug, for War on Drugs purposes.
 

Welcome to my ignore list.

[chessnut]

400x profits are not unheard of nor uncommon in bitcoin land.

I know that, but there's a difference between 400X profits and outperforming the market by 400X. You can get 400X profits just by buying and holding long enough. Beating the market by 40,000% is a different thing entirely.

Did TERA say he made 400xby only playing the markets? because most of us have made more than 10x just holding. If I traded the swings from 2012, with a bit of luck and leverage I would have made 400x. 10x quickly becomes 20x, 40x.....

not something I would try to do myself however. it would probably take pretty poor money management skills to make that much money actually.

[windjc]

Why are we going down??

It can't be all straight up right now.... we will bounce around and it will be a tough battle to get outside of the descending triangle.... we are almost through though.... might take a few weeks, but we are having a 50% retracement on the last few days movements. Normal market forces at work... There is heavy resistance going up, and moving up and down will help churn that resistance out.

I guess so

Well we didn't even get to 50% retracement of the 8 consecutive red candles (598). Which is shocking given that we went to 592 in a few hours of correction.

But the sell walls to keep price suppressed were amazingly effective. The bulls have no balls currently.

And the bears seem more eager to put up walls than to really sell.

So maybe we just sit and stare at each other for a while somewhere between $550 and $575.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Well we didn't even get to 50% retracement of the 8 consecutive red candles (598). Which is shocking given that we went to 592 in a few hours of correction.

But the sell walls to keep price suppressed were amazingly effective. The bulls have no balls currently.

And the bears seem more eager to put up walls than to really sell.

So maybe we just sit and stare at each other for a while somewhere between $550 and $575.

Seems like a likely scenario.  Not one that I favor atm though, because it looks like I might lose my bet against Pruden  .

[TERA]

it would probably take pretty poor money management skills to make that much money actually.

lol nice. I'm going to save this quote. It's a classic. I'm glad I'm not a banker or something.

[octaft]

I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

I see these types of bets all the time, and it's dumb for the other side, every time. When you win, your prize is worth less than if you lose. If he were to take this, he would be in a sense laying you odds.

Why don't you instead make him an offer for $XXXX USD worth of bitcoin when the bet is settled, and have the person holding them divvy the bitcoin up accordingly (so you get a refund if you don't have to give all the bitcoins on escrow away to cover the $XXXX). That's much more attractive for the bear side of the bet.

[windjc]

I am more than happy to make this bet with you: 5 BTC in escrow.

If Mtgox gives a 80%-100% refund in coins, the price of Bitcoin will not decrease on increased volume more than $100 less than the day of the refund within 2 weeks of the refund.

I see these types of bets all the time, and it's dumb for the other side, every time. When you win, your prize is worth less than if you lose. If he were to take this, he would be in a sense laying you odds.

Why don't you instead make him an offer for $XXXX USD worth of bitcoin when the bet is settled, and have the person holding them divvy the bitcoin up accordingly (so you get a refund if you don't have to give all the bitcoins on escrow away to cover the $XXXX). That's much more attractive for the bear side of the bet.

Sure. Whatever. He's still not taking the bet.

[chessnut]

it would probably take pretty poor money management skills to make that much money actually.

lol nice. I'm going to save this quote. It's a classic. I'm glad I'm not a banker or something.

lol it's nothing personal, I said probably.

I would never keep more than 20% of my bitcoins at an exchange, I cant make 400x returns like that. If I used 2.5 leverage, I would be risking a margin call most of the time. I would have lost a lot of money getting caught up in all those spikes. or made money. my point, 400x returns are not in your control.

Im glad you're not my banker, because you would be risking more than 50% of my money most of the time  

[marcus_of_augustus]

So, since the U.S. declared Bitcoin property not money, how soon should Karpeles expect his Dwolla cash back? He was only selling property.

Shrem wasn't laundering money lol  facking bureaucracies

The FBI will clarify that bitcoin is a terrorist weapon, since its stated purpose is to destroy the US government and economy.

And the DEA will consider it an addictive drug, for War on Drugs purposes.
 

You might be closer to the truth than you imagine.

Lawsky specifically cited "national security considerations" when asking for investigations/hearings into Bitcoin.

This basically means the full surveillance machinery of the NSA becomes at his disposal under the anti-terrorism laws. Law enforcement only need to utter these magic words and the military arm of the police state can be turned from external threats to internal threats (to get around habeas corpus and etc). Then they can go about constructing parallel prosecutions cases using 'guidance' data that is illegally obtained and inadmissible in courts.

[creekbore]

just noticed that my favorite log baseline crossed over 500.  rising almost $4/diem now.  crosses the current price on 12 Apr.  crosses ATH on 9 Jul at a rate of $8/diem.

Why say 'diem'?  Is not easier and more accessible to type day?

You know how you keep saying about your rule of thumb re. asking cabbies if they have heard of Bitcoin and they reply, no. 

Try asking them in English rather Latin, maybe you'll get a different response.

[BitChick]

I just read that the majority of the world's tax year begins in April and that many people want to sell coins now to offset taxes for next year and will buy back in April.  Any thoughts on that?  We had a huge rise in price last April.  That could have been one factor. 

[JorgeStolfi]

[ ... ] the anarchic pipedream of an unregulated global economy without banks and outside the reach of governments, laws and police is not only impossible to succeed, but would be a barbaric nightmare if it did.  

You make the claim "impossible to succeed" with no justification or consideration for the end goal of cooperation to produce surpluses for the benefits of all members.

Now, very few of those crimes have resulted in any criminal cases.  So, why should the criminals stop?  Without laws and law enforcement, fraudster and thieves fare much better than people who respect others's property.

You are talking about Wall St. since 2007-08 crises right?

Yeah, them too.  (Hm, now I get it, MtGOX and all that are bitcoin's strategy to be accepted by Wall Street...   )

[TERA]

I just read that the majority of the world's tax year begins in April and that many people want to sell coins now to offset taxes for next year and will buy back in April.  Any thoughts on that?  We had a huge rise in price last April.  That could have been one factor.  

Most people who trade bitcoin have profits, not losses. therefore, they would want to wait till AFTER the tax year begins to sell and take profits.

[chessnut]

I see a three waves down terminated on high volume =D

I think we go up from here the consolidation is over for the day. p

[JorgeStolfi]

Most people who trade bitcoin have profits, not losses.

Hm, how do you know that?

Every dollar that one client withdraws from an exchange was deposited by some other client.  If one client has profit (withdraws more USD than he deposited), some other client will eventually have a loss (withdraw less than he deposited).  So the sum of all profits and losses is zero; actually a bit negative because of fees.

Are you counting profit in BTC, or discounting BTC holdings as investments? That makes things more complicated, but in the end trading does not create dollars nor BTCs, so if one wins, someone else must lose, no?

That still doesn't say how many traders make a profit or loss; it could be that only a few smart traders make huge profits and everybody else loses, or vice-versa.

[chessnut]

Most people who trade bitcoin have profits, not losses.

Hm, how do you know that?

Every dollar that one client withdraws from an exchange was deposited by some other client.  If one client has profit (withdraws more USD than he deposited), some other client will eventually have a loss (withdraw less than he deposited).  So the sum of all profits and losses is zero; actually a bit negative because of fees.

Are you counting profit in BTC, or discounting BTC holdings as investments? That makes things more complicated, but in the end trading does not create dollars nor BTCs, so if one wins, someone else must lose, no?

That still doesn't say how many traders make a profit or loss; it could be that only a few smart traders make huge profits and everybody else loses, or vice-versa.

you could say that bitcoin traders have net profit, and that dollar traders have net loss.