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Question: When $60K? (EST time zone)
Feb. 21 - 7 (5.7%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25183139 times)
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blade87
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June 21, 2017, 02:15:35 AM

I'm fine with SegWit + 2mb, so long as the following 2mb hard fork code is tested extensively beforehand.
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June 21, 2017, 02:23:59 AM

Support seems high for 2x ATM, a little pool luck and we could be at 85 and a few more small pools would possibly get us to 90. At this point I'm glad for any sort of consensus, though I prefer just Segwit and no 2MB.
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June 21, 2017, 02:27:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee

Bitcoin is not sinking, and bitcoin is not broken.

Sure there are various tweaks that can make bitcoin better, but there is no emergency death situation as you seem to want to argue.

If you think going from 90% to less than 40% market dominance is not an emergency...  And scaling, or better yet, this absurd drama has played some part for that decrease of market quota.

Also, Bitcoin is not broken, that's right... And I don't know enough about blockchains as I do about networks and most networks that exceed 80-90% capacity are bound to severe issues. We would need to reduce that congestion to 50% to be safe. Segwit will largely help in the long term, a blocksize increase can aleviate some of the issues right now.

Quote

I thought that I already got a consession from you that the first step is Segwit?  So, yeah the second and third steps might happen, but you gotta do the first step before you get to the second step... so even though the odds of the second step might be pretty decent, the second step is not inevitable, as you seem to continue to suggest .. and maybe you have some kind of misreading about what has to happen in order for the second step to take place... and in any event it does not seem to be inevitable.. so why do you keep getting ahead of yourself?  one step at a time, no?  

By the way, it looks like there are people who will be working on testing the second step and going through various kinds of work to carry out the second step, but that still does not make the second step inevitable, even if it has decent chances to occur.  

And, stop suggesting what I want, because I am only calling the situation as I see it, and this is not a matter about what I want or do not want, but instead a description of community dynamics and sentiment about the 2mb (second step) aspect of the segwit2x.

What miners are signaling is Segwit2x and that includes a compromise to a blocksize increase to 2MB. Are you suggesting that after getting the Segwit part, there will be enough support for a UASF to block the 2MB HF? Good luck with that.

Quote

I don't know why you are getting so worked up about this?  It seems pretty likely that the first step is going to occur, and even if the second step were to fall through, we still have the first step... so cross that bridge when you get there rather than getting worked up and suggesting that the whole thing might be a failure if the second step were not to occur.

It would be a disaster if after getting Segwit some people insist on an UASF to avoid the 2MB hard fork. Anyway, I am pretty confident that won't happen.

I don't want a UASF, I don't want a contentios SF or HF, I don't want EC/BU no matter that... I basically don't want anything that could result on a split.

Quote
Well, it looks like you are in luck and there appears to be a largely non-contentious solution on the horizon... right?  It looks like the current variation of segwit2x that allows a softforking of segwit first is gaining pretty likely success and support.


80.6% support on coindance 24 hour marker right now.

https://coin.dance/blocks


Yep, and that makes me REALLY happy. Maybe you don't want to celebrate it... But you will when you see the outcome. Wink



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June 21, 2017, 02:29:00 AM

I'm fine with SegWit + 2mb, so long as the following 2mb hard fork code is tested extensively beforehand.
If there is going to be a software bug, it will be in SegWit not in the 2mb hard fork. The hard fork is just a few lines, SegWit is a massive and complex change and probably will have bugs.
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June 21, 2017, 02:32:07 AM

I'm fine with SegWit + 2mb, so long as the following 2mb hard fork code is tested extensively beforehand.

Miners wont HF with buggy code even the market will refuse it with overwhelming support. Jihan wants to rush it to try to be ahead of the waves of new people after sewitt. Those side-chains will scale Bitcoin beyond expectations wich making a HF unnecessary. Miners will still be making more than enough profits on-chain tx. If the code is ok and with full support than we they can land a save HF, i'm ok with that.
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June 21, 2017, 02:33:42 AM

So I was thinking about the price and how it relates to velocity of money. As we get more transactions and LN which will allow for very fast velocity of bitcoin, would that send the price up or down?
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June 21, 2017, 02:45:55 AM

So I was thinking about the price and how it relates to velocity of money. As we get more transactions and LN which will allow for very fast velocity of bitcoin, would that send the price up or down?

Negligible if we only consider the velecity factor. I could get a number out of my ass, but if you want to calculate it you just need to take two figures:

1- The delay that most transactions have right now. Say 1 hour to be conservative?
2- The total of payments (withdraws from Bitcoin to FIAT) that happen in a day / 24

Or just get a rough idea of what those delayed payments represent, and that is the figure.

But then, inputs are also somewhat delayed. Considering the price is currently rising and not the opposite the net result means that instant transactions would mean more (1 hour equivalent) money in than out. So it could be argued that it would influence the price in a (completely negligible) positive way.

Now, if we consider what influence other factors like media attention for having finally solved this absurd drama, or how Bitcoin recovers its dominance as a payment method and not just store of value.... well... thats not negligeable.

Usually when someone refers to velocity of money, it doesn't mean the (almost negligible) time the transactions needs for settling but this:

Quote
It can refer to the income velocity of money, which is the frequency at which the average same unit of currency is used to purchase newly domestically-produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one unit of money is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time.

And that has more to do with what usage people do with their money/bitcoins/whatever.

TL;DR: Negligible. Irrelevant.
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June 21, 2017, 02:49:09 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee

Bitcoin is not sinking, and bitcoin is not broken.

Sure there are various tweaks that can make bitcoin better, but there is no emergency death situation as you seem to want to argue.

If you think going from 90% to less than 40% market dominance is not an emergency...  And scaling, or better yet, this absurd drama has played some part for that decrease of market quota.

Yep.. you are getting caught up on irrelevant facts.  Bitcoin has been going up in amazing ways during this whole time, and the fact that various alts, including ethereum and ripple, were pumped 2x to 50x more than bitcoin does not cause a logical conclusion that bitcoin is broken but instead some kind of false narrative that you seem to want to buy into... and measure "success" of bitcoin based on term and pumping that has been created by others.

You seem to be getting distracted by bullshit and nonsense.




Also, Bitcoin is not broken, that's right... And I don't know enough about blockchains as I do about networks and most networks that reach 80% capacity are bound to severe issues. We would need to reduce that congestion to 50% to be safe. Segwit will largely help in the long term, a blocksize increase can aleviate some of the issues right now.

Look at you.  Admitting that you do not know, but at the same time prescribing something based on whatever you know about networks.

Do you know about the technology of seg wit?  Do you know about spam attacks?  do you now about economics and market behavior?


Quote

I thought that I already got a consession from you that the first step is Segwit?  So, yeah the second and third steps might happen, but you gotta do the first step before you get to the second step... so even though the odds of the second step might be pretty decent, the second step is not inevitable, as you seem to continue to suggest .. and maybe you have some kind of misreading about what has to happen in order for the second step to take place... and in any event it does not seem to be inevitable.. so why do you keep getting ahead of yourself?  one step at a time, no?  

By the way, it looks like there are people who will be working on testing the second step and going through various kinds of work to carry out the second step, but that still does not make the second step inevitable, even if it has decent chances to occur.  

And, stop suggesting what I want, because I am only calling the situation as I see it, and this is not a matter about what I want or do not want, but instead a description of community dynamics and sentiment about the 2mb (second step) aspect of the segwit2x.

What miners are signaling is Segwit2x and that includes a compromise to a blocksize increase to 2MB. Are you suggesting that after getting the Segwit part, there will be enough support for a UASF to block the 2MB HF? Good luck with that.

I don't how it is going to play out, and I already stated what I think.  I think that there is consensus to get segwit first in the form of a softfork, and that is what is seeming to excite the market and the signaling at the moment.  I don't know how the rest plays out because I do not know how the results of the code testing is going to play out and I do not know the level of consensus that will be sustainable in reference to the 2mb aspect of the compound question...

Yeah people seem to agree about the first part of the compound question and that seems to be what is causing the signaling and the market excitement, but still a question regarding how the second part is going out play out, no?




Quote

I don't know why you are getting so worked up about this?  It seems pretty likely that the first step is going to occur, and even if the second step were to fall through, we still have the first step... so cross that bridge when you get there rather than getting worked up and suggesting that the whole thing might be a failure if the second step were not to occur.

It would be a disaster if after getting Segwit some people insist on an UASF to avoid the 2MB hard fork. Anyway, I am pretty confident that won't happen.

I don't know if any kind of USAF would be required.  We get segwit going and then there is not enough support for the rest.  Why would a UASD be needed in order to block the 2mb part from getting activated?  It seems that if there is not enough support for the 2mb aspect then it would not get implemented, right?



I don't want a UASF, I don't want a contentios SF or HF, I don't want EC/BU no matter that... I basically don't want anything that could result on a split.

Why does it matter what you want?  The situation is going to play out however, it wants.  Why do people continue to want to project what they want?  Either you like what bitcoin is and you invest or you do not like it and you invest in something else.. why does the rest regarding what you want matter?




Quote
Well, it looks like you are in luck and there appears to be a largely non-contentious solution on the horizon... right?  It looks like the current variation of segwit2x that allows a softforking of segwit first is gaining pretty likely success and support.


80.6% support on coindance 24 hour marker right now.

https://coin.dance/blocks


Yep, and that makes me REALLY happy. Maybe you don't want to celebrate it... But you will when you see the outcome. Wink



I don't know what the fuck you are talking about?  I see the segwit2x support and it appears like it has a good chance of going to the next step.  It seems to be a very bullish development.  I am invested in bitcoin, so I like bullish developments because I become more wealthy as the price goes up, as long as my coins don't get hacked and as long as I don't sell too many of them.   Wink Cheesy
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June 21, 2017, 03:23:55 AM



so we already got a lot of folks out there screaming that segwit2x is a kind of package, when the first part of segwit seems to be agreed upon; however, the second part of the deal (the 2mb aspect) seems to have contingencies.  So, if it ends up that the second part does not go through, then then a large number of folks will be whining that Core broke the agreement, blah blah blah.. and the 2mb aspect was supposed to be "guaranteed", just like (and maybe even worse) they were mischaracterizing and whining about the Hong Kong agreement. 

Where am I going wrong in my thinking, here?

It's a package deal SegWit first followed by 2MB later. Those signalling are agreeing to activate SegWit and also support a later hard fork to increase the block size.

Now it is true that major players could lie and later retract their support for 2MB sort of a "ha ha I got mine" approach to negotiation but this would be utterly destructive to trust and kill any chance for future upgrades to the protocol for the foreseeable future.

You can't build a consensus on falsehood. Once commitments are made they should be honored. Otherwise it is very bad news for all of us as the consensus system will become nonfunctional.
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June 21, 2017, 03:27:18 AM

I don't care who wins, I just want this discussion ended, so there will be less fuel for the FUDsters and people will invest more.
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June 21, 2017, 03:52:20 AM




so we already got a lot of folks out there screaming that segwit2x is a kind of package, when the first part of segwit seems to be agreed upon; however, the second part of the deal (the 2mb aspect) seems to have contingencies.  So, if it ends up that the second part does not go through, then then a large number of folks will be whining that Core broke the agreement, blah blah blah.. and the 2mb aspect was supposed to be "guaranteed", just like (and maybe even worse) they were mischaracterizing and whining about the Hong Kong agreement. 

Where am I going wrong in my thinking, here?

It's a package deal SegWit first followed by 2MB later. Those signalling are agreeing to activate SegWit and also support a later hard fork to increase the block size.

Now it is true that major players could lie and later retract their support for 2MB sort of a "ha ha I got mine" approach to negotiation but this would be utterly destructive to trust and kill any chance for future upgrades to the protocol for the foreseeable future.

Your framework seems to be wrong.


This is not a situation about being disingenuous later and withdrawing from the agreement.


The first part of the agreement (implement segwit) does not have any contingencies.  The first part is to implement a softfork of segwit, and almost everyone seems to agree to that first part.

The second part of the agreement involving 2mb and a hardfork has at least two contingencies.  The first part of the contingencies is the testing out of the 2mb code, and the second part is having consensus to implement that portion.  There might even be a third part which is whether it is better to implement the second part (if it is done) as a hardfork or as a softfork.  Of course a hardfork is not too problematic when you have 100% consensus, but we already know that both the 2mb portion and the hardfork portion are filled with folks who believe that neither of those are necessary... so both of those components might lose support along the way, so it is not a matter of being disingenuous at all.  You can act in good faith, but if the 2mb does not test out well and does not achieve consensus and if a hardfork seems too problematic, then the second part might not go through.  That is not disingenuousness.



You can't build a consensus on falsehood. Once commitments are made they should be honored.

Do you understand the concept of a compound question?

Do you understand the concept of contingencies?

You keep trying to suggest that the situation is cut and dry, and it is not.  There is both a compound subject matter and there are contingencies that are connected with the second part of the implementation that have not been worked out and are subject to mustering support for the testing and for the outcome of the testing leading to the implementation of the second part.


Otherwise it is very bad news for all of us as the consensus system will become nonfunctional.

I doubt it.  There will still be progress being made.  Why would you conclude that it is a bad thing that the second part might not get implemented?  If the second part cannot achieve consensus at a later date, then it is likely not worthy of being implemented...and anyhow it should not be easy to just make a whole bunch of unvetted changes to bitcoin... if changes are going to be made, then there needs to be consensus about whatever new code is being implemented. 

In regards to segwit, the code is already there and already ready to go live... in the matter of the 2mb aspect the code is not there, and I am a bit unclear whether a hardfork would be the necessary way of accomplishing the matter in order to ensure that there is consensus about how to implement the 2mb if it does get implemented.
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June 21, 2017, 03:54:07 AM

I don't care who wins, I just want this discussion ended, so there will be less fuel for the FUDsters and people will invest more.


Bitcoin is a decentralized system, so there is always going to be disagreement and there is always going to be battles and there is always going to be folks attempting to sabotage bitcoin in various ways.  The higher the value, the more battles.
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June 21, 2017, 04:25:48 AM


You can't build a consensus on falsehood. Once commitments are made they should be honored.

Do you understand the concept of a compound question?

Do you understand the concept of contingencies?

You keep trying to suggest that the situation is cut and dry, and it is not.  There is both a compound subject matter and there are contingencies that are connected with the second part of the implementation that have not been worked out and are subject to mustering support for the testing and for the outcome of the testing leading to the implementation of the second part.


The miners who are signalling NYA should abide by their agreement to support both SegWit and a later unspecified 2MB hard fork. This is essentially a contract if an unenforceable one and following through with ones agreements is necessary to achieve anything in a consensus system.

That said Core had not agreed to 2MB hard fork so they are not bound to this like the NYA signalling folks are.
Thus there will still be a need for further negotiations.

Core will insist on their being the source of code updates and their typical 6 month testing period for new code. The miners will want a fork with some especially Bitmain wanting to use non-Core code and faster roll out time.

The two sides will be so close at this point that fracturing the network as opposed to coming to some kind of agreement would be silly.
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June 21, 2017, 04:47:29 AM


You can't build a consensus on falsehood. Once commitments are made they should be honored.

Do you understand the concept of a compound question?

Do you understand the concept of contingencies?

You keep trying to suggest that the situation is cut and dry, and it is not.  There is both a compound subject matter and there are contingencies that are connected with the second part of the implementation that have not been worked out and are subject to mustering support for the testing and for the outcome of the testing leading to the implementation of the second part.


The miners who are signalling NYA should abide by their agreement to support both SegWit and a later unspecified 2MB hard fork. This is essentially a contract if an unenforceable one and following through with ones agreements is necessary to achieve anything in a consensus system.

The concept of contract and consensus are different.

Consensus just requires people to act in their own self interest, and when the reach a high enough threshold, then the matter implements in accordance with the rules.

With a contract, either it is enforceable or it is not a contract. 
 

That said Core had not agreed to 2MB hard fork so they are not bound to this like the NYA signalling folks are.
Thus there will still be a need for further negotiations.

Core will insist on their being the source of code updates and their typical 6 month testing period for new code. The miners will want a fork with some especially Bitmain wanting to use non-Core code and faster roll out time.

The two sides will be so close at this point that fracturing the network as opposed to coming to some kind of agreement would be silly.



I think that I largely agree with this last point that you are making, even if it will not play out exactly as you suggest, seems that you are describing a very likely scenario.

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June 21, 2017, 04:54:08 AM


I continue to wonder why there are so many folks who continue to assert that 2mb is needed and a kind of must and a kind of emergency, without even verifying how segwit plays out.  Causes me to tentatively conclude that there is likely some hidden agenda in regards to such a desire to implement something that really seems to be unnecessary - and whether the implementation of unnecessary is for governance reasons or just some kind of big business reasons seems to escape me.

Most of us are simple bitcoin holders and just want the issue to be resolved.

Most of us do not want the Chinese miners to take over the bitcoin code and trust Core to manage upgrades far more then we trust other groups that do not prioritize decentralization.

For those of us who have educated ourselves on the issue it is clear that a 2MB hardfork is not needed as some kind of emergency solution but it is equally clear that it is needed to maintain overall good will in the community especially the mining community.

Since everyone seems to agree that a blocksize increase will eventually be required as bitcoin grows and most people including core developers feel that the dangers of a single one time increase are manageable I am of the strong opinion that a 2MB hardfork rolled out and deployed by Core using their usual slow and complete vetting process would be far less damaging than telling the miners to go take a hike after SegWit is activated.
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June 21, 2017, 04:58:10 AM


I don't know what the fuck you are talking about?  I see the segwit2x support and it appears like it has a good chance of going to the next step.  It seems to be a very bullish development.  I am invested in bitcoin, so I like bullish developments because I become more wealthy as the price goes up, as long as my coins don't get hacked and as long as I don't sell too many of them.   Wink Cheesy


Arguing with you is so much resource intensive it's not worth it (more so when I have to do it in a foreign language). Let's just take this last paragraph in which I think we both do agree and enjoy the run up.

And, again, buy a damn hardware wallet Wink

P.S.: And, maybe I wasn't very eloquent with my poor english, but all that CoinCube has said in his last posts is exactly my opinion, which him has expressed with much more clear and concise words.
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June 21, 2017, 05:12:16 AM



I continue to wonder why there are so many folks who continue to assert that 2mb is needed and a kind of must and a kind of emergency, without even verifying how segwit plays out.  Causes me to tentatively conclude that there is likely some hidden agenda in regards to such a desire to implement something that really seems to be unnecessary - and whether the implementation of unnecessary is for governance reasons or just some kind of big business reasons seems to escape me.

Most of us are simple bitcoin holders and just want the issue to be resolved.

I was starting to agree with some of your points, but now that you are supposedly talking on behalf of a group, you are losing credibility.

Why don't you speak for yourself rather than assuming what "we" wants?




Most of us do not want the Chinese miners to take over the bitcoin code and trust Core to manage upgrades far more then we trust other groups that do not prioritize decentralization.


more nonsense. .. core is not centralized, so you can remove that from your framework, please.



For those of us who have educated ourselves on the issue it is clear that a 2MB hardfork is not needed as some kind of emergency solution but it is equally clear that it is needed to maintain overall good will in the community especially the mining community.

O.k.  so you pretty much concede it is not needed, except maybe it may be needed in the future.

If you were really edumacated about the topic, then you would accept that going forward with caution, such as implementing seg wit first would be the most plausible and reasonable solution.. rather than arguing for something that is not needed and is merely speculative about future proofing bitcoin.. even though seg wit may well take care of all near to medium term issues related to scaling, for example..

Have you ever thought that 2mb may bring more problems than it supposedly resolves?





Since everyone seems to agree that a blocksize increase will eventually be required as bitcoin grows and most people including core developers feel that the dangers of a single one time increase are manageable I am of the strong opinion that a 2MB hardfork rolled out and deployed by Core using their usual slow and complete vetting process would be far less damaging than telling the miners to go take a hike after SegWit is activated.


Maybe I kind of agree with you about this.  Core are not unreasonable people, as you seem to want to assert.  If 2mb or some other blocksize limit increase is needed, then it can be made in the future.. why rush into something that is neither needed nor proven to help more than it hurts?




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June 21, 2017, 05:15:29 AM


I don't know what the fuck you are talking about?  I see the segwit2x support and it appears like it has a good chance of going to the next step.  It seems to be a very bullish development.  I am invested in bitcoin, so I like bullish developments because I become more wealthy as the price goes up, as long as my coins don't get hacked and as long as I don't sell too many of them.   Wink Cheesy


Arguing with you is so much resource intensive it's not worth it (more so when I have to do it in a foreign language). Let's just take this last paragraph in which I think we both do agree and enjoy the run up.

And, again, buy a damn hardware wallet Wink

P.S.: And, maybe I wasn't very eloquent with my poor english, but all that CoinCube has said in his last posts is exactly my opinion, which him has expressed with much more clear and concise words.


your english seems pretty good to me, just some of your ideas suck... hahahahhahahaha    Tongue Tongue

To the moon!!!!!
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June 21, 2017, 05:40:32 AM

Looking at the few blocks not supporting SegWit2x shows that it is mainly small pools that didn't indicate anything and slush pool which indicates support for SegWit.

https://coin.dance/blocks
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