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Question: When $60K? (EST time zone)
Feb. 21 - 7 (5.7%)
Feb. 22 - 19 (15.6%)
Feb. 23 - 13 (10.7%)
Feb. 24 - 9 (7.4%)
Feb. 25 - 8 (6.6%)
Feb. 26 - 9 (7.4%)
Feb. 27 - 3 (2.5%)
Feb. 28 - 4 (3.3%)
March - 28 (23%)
After March - 14 (11.5%)
Never - 8 (6.6%)
Total Voters: 122

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25190879 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
ft73
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June 27, 2017, 08:54:51 AM

2450-2450$
Well, thats oddly specific. Wink

Sorry  Grin
I meant 2450-2470$.
A few key levels cross there.

Nah.. there is too much going on in this space, and what you say - breaking upwards at this point is not that important.

We have too much going on in the alt coin space that seems to be placing various additional downward price pressures on BTC... but in the end, we are likely going to have some decoupling and some ability to for bitcoin to resume its expected course of action.

Maybe we could experience a double bottom around $2120 and still be o.k. in terms of continuing upwards?

If we break below $2k, on the other hand, then maybe $1500 would reasonably within play... even though it may be a bit difficult to get there, even with the downwards movements of the alt coins and ICO space.

I'd say we're heading down, yet i look out for signs of reversal.
I'm considering that range quite meaningful, in my evaluation.

IF we're heading down, 2120$ should be a simple intermediate step.
You see, H&S ...

My bet on target would be 1700-1750$.
Daily SMA100 should move about there and BTC usually honours it.
Consider that donwmove so far stopped at SMA50, which is another important level.

EDIT: fixed typo.
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JayJuanGee
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June 27, 2017, 08:58:50 AM

2450-2450$
Well, thats oddly specific. Wink

Sorry  Grin
I meant 2450-2470$.
A few key levels cross there.

Nah.. there is too much going on in this space, and what you say - breaking upwards at this point is not that important.

We have too much going on in the alt coin space that seems to be placing various additional downward price pressures on BTC... but in the end, we are likely going to have some decoupling and some ability to for bitcoin to resume its expected course of action.

Maybe we could experience a double bottom around $2120 and still be o.k. in terms of continuing upwards?

If we break below $2k, on the other hand, then maybe $1500 would reasonably within play... even though it may be a bit difficult to get there, even with the downwards movements of the alt coins and ICO space.

I'd say we're heading down, yet i look out for signs of reversal.
I'm considering that range quite meaningful, in my evaluation.

IF we're heading down, 2120$ should be a simple intermediate step.
You see, H&S ...

My bet on target would be 1700-1750$.
Daily SMA100 should move about there and BTC usually honours it.
Consider that donwmove so far stopped at SMA50, which is another important level.

EDIT: fixed typo.


Bitcoin defies technical analysis on a regular basis.  I don't have any problem giving some weight to some technical analysis, but we have to take the technical analysis with a grain of salt... , no?

Bitcoin is not a mature market, and we have a lot of weird dynamics going on right now with segwit related upcoming dates and alt coin mini-implosions that don't seem to be letting off - but they are not necessarily bearish for bitcoin, even though they seem to have some dragging down effect on BTC, at the moment.
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June 27, 2017, 09:03:25 AM

Those of you talking about decoupling from alts and Ether, I'm interested to know what this is based on. Thanks
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June 27, 2017, 09:09:57 AM


Bitcoin defies technical analysis on a regular basis.  I don't have any problem giving some weight to some technical analysis, but we have to take the technical analysis with a grain of salt... , no?

Bitcoin is not a mature market, and we have a lot of weird dynamics going on right now with segwit related upcoming dates and alt coin mini-implosions that don't seem to be letting off - but they are not necessarily bearish for bitcoin, even though they seem to have some dragging down effect on BTC, at the moment.

Sure.
However i'm risking my own money and i consider technical analysis a quite valuable asset.


JayJuanGee
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June 27, 2017, 09:19:28 AM

Those of you talking about decoupling from alts and Ether, I'm interested to know what this is based on. Thanks

You talkin bout me, Willis?

I am merely describing some possible dynamics that are based on speculation, and these kinds of "decoupling" concepts had been frequent talking points in the ETH scene in recent weeks - when many of those ETH pumpers were talking about "flippening" and "decoupling" in such a way that ETH was going to become the new crypto market cap leader.

Sure these scenarios could still play out, but we seem to be having some opposite dynamic at the moment in which ETH is crashing harder than BTC, and it seems to be the case that ETH is bring BTC down to some extent..

but yeah, a lot of this is speculation and logic and a description of a tension that seems to exist and even a close question regarding what is happening exactly (and we may not know for sure until several weeks later when we look at these dynamics retrospectively).

In other words, none of these are certainties, they are merely descriptions of possible dynamics that could be playing out, and since this is a speculation thread, a lot of this is fair game, especially since we are talking about an evolving and ongoing set of dynamics and attempting to identify what is happening in order to hedge our next moves, whether and what to invest in and when, if at all.
JayJuanGee
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June 27, 2017, 09:28:55 AM


Bitcoin defies technical analysis on a regular basis.  I don't have any problem giving some weight to some technical analysis, but we have to take the technical analysis with a grain of salt... , no?

Bitcoin is not a mature market, and we have a lot of weird dynamics going on right now with segwit related upcoming dates and alt coin mini-implosions that don't seem to be letting off - but they are not necessarily bearish for bitcoin, even though they seem to have some dragging down effect on BTC, at the moment.

Sure.
However i'm risking my own money and i consider technical analysis a quite valuable asset.



There is nothing wrong with putting a certain amount of weight on factors (including technical analysis), and even seeing the world differently than other folks to make your investments (based on technical analysis, for example); however, here, you are posting in a quasi-public thread and you are telling us where you believe prices to be going based on technical analysis that does not account for some of the other important factors that I mentioned.


Ok. sure on a personal level, you could be taking some of the technical analysis with a grain of salt, but your posts do not seem to reflect that grain of salt very well, if you happen to be doing such.
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June 27, 2017, 09:35:03 AM

Those of you talking about decoupling from alts and Ether, I'm interested to know what this is based on. Thanks

You talkin bout me, Willis?

I am merely describing some possible dynamics that are based on speculation, and these kinds of "decoupling" concepts had been frequent talking points in the ETH scene in recent weeks - when many of those ETH pumpers were talking about "flippening" and "decoupling" in such a way that ETH was going to become the new crypto market cap leader.

Sure these scenarios could still play out, but we seem to be having some opposite dynamic at the moment in which ETH is crashing harder than BTC, and it seems to be the case that ETH is bring BTC down to some extent..

but yeah, a lot of this is speculation and logic and a description of a tension that seems to exist and even a close question regarding what is happening exactly (and we may not know for sure until several weeks later when we look at these dynamics retrospectively).

In other words, none of these are certainties, they are merely descriptions of possible dynamics that could be playing out, and since this is a speculation thread, a lot of this is fair game, especially since we are talking about an evolving and ongoing set of dynamics and attempting to identify what is happening in order to hedge our next moves, whether and what to invest in and when, if at all.

Thanks for such a comprehensive response! I was worried that I might be missing a more concrete fundamental. If I am, then at least we all are. Hopefully not

I've noticed also that Eth seems to be pulling Btc about a bit. I had been reckoning that liquidity is the major difference between them, hence why the less mature Eth goes up and down farther than Btc.

ICO speculation was not the only reason for Eth's rise. A bunch of big corporations jumping on board has fueled it too. This corporate commitment makes me doubtful that Ether would continue to fall once Bitcoin starts to recover. I would hazard that they're not likely to decouple until after mutual recovery from this correction/bubblepop.
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June 27, 2017, 09:38:57 AM
Last edit: June 27, 2017, 09:52:31 AM by ft73


Bitcoin defies technical analysis on a regular basis.  I don't have any problem giving some weight to some technical analysis, but we have to take the technical analysis with a grain of salt... , no?

Bitcoin is not a mature market, and we have a lot of weird dynamics going on right now with segwit related upcoming dates and alt coin mini-implosions that don't seem to be letting off - but they are not necessarily bearish for bitcoin, even though they seem to have some dragging down effect on BTC, at the moment.

Sure.
However i'm risking my own money and i consider technical analysis a quite valuable asset.



There is nothing wrong with putting a certain amount of weight on factors (including technical analysis), and even seeing the world differently than other folks to make your investments (based on technical analysis, for example); however, here, you are posting in a quasi-public thread and you are telling us where you believe prices to be going based on technical analysis that does not account for some of the other important factors that I mentioned.


Ok. sure on a personal level, you could be taking some of the technical analysis with a grain of salt, but your posts do not seem to reflect that grain of salt very well, if you happen to be doing such.

I think i am sharing my ideas and opinions, as well as you are sharing yours.
I see nothing wrong with that, as long they're politely expressed and not offending.

"Grain of salt" may be quite subjective though, not sure it fits.
JayJuanGee
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June 27, 2017, 10:08:09 AM


Bitcoin defies technical analysis on a regular basis.  I don't have any problem giving some weight to some technical analysis, but we have to take the technical analysis with a grain of salt... , no?

Bitcoin is not a mature market, and we have a lot of weird dynamics going on right now with segwit related upcoming dates and alt coin mini-implosions that don't seem to be letting off - but they are not necessarily bearish for bitcoin, even though they seem to have some dragging down effect on BTC, at the moment.

Sure.
However i'm risking my own money and i consider technical analysis a quite valuable asset.



There is nothing wrong with putting a certain amount of weight on factors (including technical analysis), and even seeing the world differently than other folks to make your investments (based on technical analysis, for example); however, here, you are posting in a quasi-public thread and you are telling us where you believe prices to be going based on technical analysis that does not account for some of the other important factors that I mentioned.


Ok. sure on a personal level, you could be taking some of the technical analysis with a grain of salt, but your posts do not seem to reflect that grain of salt very well, if you happen to be doing such.

I think i am sharing my ideas and opinions, as well as you are sharing yours.
I see nothing wrong with that, as long they're politely expressed and not offending.

"Grain of salt" may be quite subjective though, not sure it fits.

Yep.. fair enough about each of us putting out opinions.

Regarding my repetition of the "grain of salt" concept, sure "grain of salt" is somewhat of a subjective concept, but there is no such thing as complete objectivity when it comes to markets, anyhow.  I have been arguing for years that you cannot completely mathematecize markets in order to suggest that there is a given path because there is also human behavior that is not completely objectifiable or predictable, even if there are patterns. 

When I say "grain of salt", I am suggesting that people need to exercise a certain amount of skepticism in respect to considering the claims of others regarding market dynamics and what factors they believe to be important and what logic they employ and the amount of supposed objectivity that a person is placing into their analysis.

So, grain of salt is not exactly a question of subjectivity, but instead a question of engaging in critical thinking and attempting to assign your own values to something that another person may be arguing and valuing differently.  So, for example, I may conclude that event has a 80% chance of happening and you may conclude that it has a 60% chance of happening, and another person may conclude that it has a 95% chance of happening, and part of my point, especially dealing with people who seem to propagate TA as if there were some kind of certainty, is that they may be attributing way too high a percentage to their perspective... therefore in my thining, grain of salt relates to apportioning value rather than subjectivity.
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June 27, 2017, 10:19:44 AM


Yep.. fair enough about each of us putting out opinions.

Regarding my repetition of the "grain of salt" concept, sure "grain of salt" is somewhat of a subjective concept, but there is no such thing as complete objectivity when it comes to markets, anyhow.  I have been arguing for years that you cannot completely mathematecize markets in order to suggest that there is a given path because there is also human behavior that is not completely objectifiable or predictable, even if there are patterns.  

When I say "grain of salt", I am suggesting that people need to exercise a certain amount of skepticism in respect to considering the claims of others regarding market dynamics and what factors they believe to be important and what logic they employ and the amount of supposed objectivity that a person is placing into their analysis.

So, grain of salt is not exactly a question of subjectivity, but instead a question of engaging in critical thinking and attempting to assign your own values to something that another person may be arguing and valuing differently.  So, for example, I may conclude that event has a 80% chance of happening and you may conclude that it has a 60% chance of happening, and another person may conclude that it has a 95% chance of happening, and part of my point, especially dealing with people who seem to propagate TA as if there were some kind of certainty, is that they may be attributing way too high a percentage to their perspective... therefore in my thining, grain of salt relates to apportioning value rather than subjectivity.

Ok, fine.
I'm not entitled (nor willing) to further discuss about "grain of salt", despite being incline to relativize it.
No pun intended.

I posted my subjective thoughts here in order to add to price action discussion, as this topic is all about "price movement tracking & discussion".
Time to go back on topic ?

 Wink

EDIT:
in the meantime hourly RSI is close to meet its "resistance" line.
It may pierce through or (probably) bump and ignite a correction.

It always failed to overcome it along the last week.
A break-up may signal reversal.

IMHO, obviously.

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June 27, 2017, 11:11:32 AM

This room needs more NotLambChop

Lambchop doesn't want to entertain us. He wants us to dump and disappear.

He hates us.  Smiley
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June 27, 2017, 11:56:28 AM

Ok so Im about to experiment with a so called non scam LOLOLOLOLOL pump and dump group on Bittrex in a few hours. I have 0.018BTC I am going to play with and see what happens...

Aim as always is increase my BTC stash using P&D of scamcoinz, wish me luck  Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley
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June 27, 2017, 12:00:49 PM

Anyone notice this thread has 1/10th the traffic of past rises and dumps?  I think this is a sign of the fact that there's no reason for cryptocurrency to exist unless you can create an ASIC proof algo where coins can be mined on commodity hardware, or constantly change the algo to defeat them.  Without doing that, the draught of new people coming in signals the date of ASIC creation as the start of the coin's eventual death.  If this thread is any indicator of the system at large, Bitcoin is like a brown dwarf star running on fuel from a prior era.  

The only thing keeping it going at all is that some PoW altcoins are used as proxies for new people to occasionally enter.  Those altcoins are generally only profitable to mine during bull runs, so it also has the side effect of making bubbles larger and bear markets even more bearish.  This phenomenon is why you always see proof of stake coins wither and die like clockwork as well.
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June 27, 2017, 12:25:22 PM

http://news.8btc.com/community-celebrities-cutting-off-relations-with-ico-projects
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June 27, 2017, 12:26:58 PM

Anyone notice this thread has 1/10th the traffic of past rises and dumps?  I think this is a sign of the fact that there's no reason for cryptocurrency to exist unless you can create an ASIC proof algo where coins can be mined on commodity hardware, or constantly change the algo to defeat them.  Without doing that, the draught of new people coming in signals the date of ASIC creation as the start of the coin's eventual death.  If this thread is any indicator of the system at large, Bitcoin is like a brown dwarf star running on fuel from a prior era.  

The only thing keeping it going at all is that some PoW altcoins are used as proxies for new people to occasionally enter.  Those altcoins are generally only profitable to mine during bull runs, so it also has the side effect of making bubbles larger and bear markets even more bearish.  This phenomenon is why you always see proof of stake coins wither and die like clockwork as well.

Well Ive recently returned to the bitcoin world. My story is I sold out 2 years ago due to financial reasons. So I think the reason there is not a lot of newbies is BTC is just too damn expensive to get into for first-timers and for people like me who used to have a modest stash and sold well its no fun participating in a forum of a coin you used to have and is now way more valuable.

Reason for my return is I am determined to start to get back in the game and build up a decent BTC stash mainly using altcoins as a step in the door. I for one was around in 2012 but after having to sell a few years ago stopped checking the forum and lost my old account
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June 27, 2017, 12:28:58 PM

So...bitcoin transactions are getting cheaper...

 Tongue
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June 27, 2017, 12:31:51 PM

Anyone notice this thread has 1/10th the traffic of past rises and dumps?  I think this is a sign of the fact that there's no reason for cryptocurrency to exist unless you can create an ASIC proof algo where coins can be mined on commodity hardware, or constantly change the algo to defeat them.

No, the reason is that all the troll traders that used to frequent this sub are now spending all their time trolling on all the various alt coin forums now.  Bitcoin is passe to them, the market too mature now and not enough impressionable young weak hands to try and manipulate in order to create more volatility.

Plus fake FUD stories, scams and hacks work better on those shitcoins. The Bitcoin community has been there done that and way over it now.

I'm sure that the troll FUDsters will be back here when the whole SegWit shitstorm cranks up.
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June 27, 2017, 12:55:37 PM

Moment of truth approaching ?

Bitstamp, RSI (14,close) on Hourly:


The area between the green dashed lines is "danger area".
Since June 21 price corrects when boundary gets crossed.
Curious about the outcome.

See yourself, "resistance" is clearly visible on 1H ( 4H as well ).
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June 27, 2017, 01:06:52 PM

So...bitcoin transactions are getting cheaper...

 Tongue


True ... but, very strangely, the MEMpool is stable since the PURGE (auto-spamming feature from miners ?).

24h



This day.
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June 27, 2017, 01:16:30 PM

This guy gets it. The blockchain's (er, Bitcoin's) killer app is Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/Coinnoisseur/status/879468433850683392
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