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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25493616 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Torque
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January 22, 2018, 12:12:58 AM

IMO certain altcoins have a place in this world unless and until bitcoin can fit every use case required. It's getting pretty close to being able to do with the inclusion of LN, rootstock and other 2nd layers/sidechains.

Really tho? Is it not ironic that Bitcoin's supposedly "slow dev cycle" is why altcoins exist, but 99.999999999999% of them have never actually participated in an e-Commerce transaction? You know, actually used to buy stuff online, which is what they all supposedly tout as their eventual purpose for existing? Years will pass and altcoins still won't have merchant adoption. Years will pass and ICO apps won't go anywhere. Perhaps a decade or more will pass, and all of the alts will be exactly where they are today in the merchant world: nowhere.

The delusion runs insanely deep with shitcoins. Insanely deep. There is only so long that you can keep using the "yes but in the future my alt will..." argument.
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TERA2
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January 22, 2018, 12:15:56 AM

btc used to be 90% dominance. That changed when we started getting investors and retail traders who know nothing about cryptocurrencies, instead of all the buyers being from the technical community and knowing better. It's kind of like the penny stock market where average joe retail traders are buying up companies that dont even exist to a $100M market cap, just because its cheap. These are good days to be a developer or an altcoin trader, just not a bitcoin idealist.
thrax
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January 22, 2018, 12:17:21 AM

Bitcoin's up $600 from its 24 hour low. If it keeps pumping we'll soon be back above $12000.
Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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January 22, 2018, 12:22:08 AM

talking of monero
https://www.reddit.com/r/bitfinex/comments/7r8z3w/bitfinex_froze_my_account_with_over_1_million/
bfx and pigs in league. 'tainted' coins ...
cAPSLOCK
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January 22, 2018, 12:45:46 AM


Yup... 

I personally think LAPPS will nullify the significance of the majority of alts.  But of all the alts Monero may remain valuable.

I am curious how the two blockchains might interact on their respective coming second layers.
d_eddie
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January 22, 2018, 12:51:16 AM

The lastest from Masterluc:

Quote
Question:
In past posts, you wrote that the price can hit low, and you advised to buy bottoms down to 8k.
Is the scenario of dropping to 8k still in force?

Answer:
I do not exclude that possibility. But on the wave like a zigzag correction passed.

I think he's saying that a drop to 8K would invalidate his Elliot Wave count. Given his history of correct Elliot wave counts to date, that's quite unlikely.
Can you please link the discussion(s) where Masterluc usually gives out his words of wisdom?
thrax
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January 22, 2018, 12:56:46 AM

The lastest from Masterluc:

Quote
Question:
In past posts, you wrote that the price can hit low, and you advised to buy bottoms down to 8k.
Is the scenario of dropping to 8k still in force?

Answer:
I do not exclude that possibility. But on the wave like a zigzag correction passed.

I think he's saying that a drop to 8K would invalidate his Elliot Wave count. Given his history of correct Elliot wave counts to date, that's quite unlikely.
Can you please link the discussion(s) where Masterluc usually gives out his words of wisdom?

It's here. It used to be called "analysis never ends", but he changed the title to "analysis".

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.0
jojo69
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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January 22, 2018, 01:01:07 AM


It's here. It used to be called "analysis never ends", but he changed the title to "analysis".

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.0

he hasn't posted directly in a long time
yefi
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January 22, 2018, 01:03:01 AM

btc used to be 90% dominance. That changed when we started getting investors and retail traders who know nothing about cryptocurrencies, instead of all the buyers being from the technical community and knowing better. It's kind of like the penny stock market where average joe retail traders are buying up companies that dont even exist to a $100M market cap, just because its cheap. These are good days to be a developer or an altcoin trader, just not a bitcoin idealist.

Yep, the markets are stricken with cheapitis. We should clone Bitcoin, but reset one bitcoin to one satoshi. With a 2.1 quadrillion supply, we'll own the market (and I'm not even sure if I'm joking).
infofront
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January 22, 2018, 01:07:11 AM

IMO certain altcoins have a place in this world unless and until bitcoin can fit every use case required. It's getting pretty close to being able to do with the inclusion of LN, rootstock and other 2nd layers/sidechains.

Really tho? Is it not ironic that Bitcoin's supposedly "slow dev cycle" is why altcoins exist, but 99.999999999999% of them have never actually participated in an e-Commerce transaction? You know, actually used to buy stuff online, which is what they all supposedly tout as their eventual purpose for existing? Years will pass and altcoins still won't have merchant adoption. Years will pass and ICO apps won't go anywhere. Perhaps a decade or more will pass, and all of the alts will be exactly where they are today in the merchant world: nowhere.

The delusion runs insanely deep with shitcoins. Insanely deep. There is only so long that you can keep using the "yes but in the future my alt will..." argument.

I'd clarify myself by saying most altcoins have a place in this world, or raison d'etre, in theory.
I suspect we mostly agree. For instance ETH exists because we apparently need a decentralized (lol) DAPP platform. But by the time any useful DAPPs come, rootstock will be mature enough to handle them.


Can you please link the discussion(s) where Masterluc usually gives out his words of wisdom?

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
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January 22, 2018, 01:10:32 AM

Can anyone tell my how futures work?


1. If someone have put money that Bitcoin will short and on 24.01 it will BOOM up - he will lose money right?
2. When exacly cme futures end? Exact time please



JUST look at 24.01.17 - the day that will change crypto. Now I know why price is same non stop. RATINGS coming to crypto !! The thing that has ten times more power than any futures.


5 star rating for bitcoin and lower stars for other = bitcoin goes few thousands up in matter of minutes.

Bitcoin get less than 5 starts = crypto world is gona dip dip dip = even if Xrp gets 5 stars (as a REALIST I see that coming - jews wants to control crypto market). People will buy XRP but BTC/ETH will drop - and everything is bought in BTC/ETH - so everything falls. Then in the ashes whales buy all XRP and GG


I REALLY HOPE there are to many jews that just want MONEY over POWER - and they will give 5 stars to BTC (easiest way to make money - they buy BTC - it moons = they make LOADS of MONEY)


What do you think about it - IMHO ratings are CRUCIAL - they destroyed whole US Market in 2008 - now they have power to destroy crypto -  WITH RATING 3 or lower = Bye Bye any investor in US



HERE: https://news.bitcoin.com/u-s-rating-agency-to-issue-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrency-grades-wednesday/
BTC 5 stars
cAPSLOCK
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January 22, 2018, 01:13:01 AM

I am curious how the two blockchains might interact on their respective coming second layers.

Bitcoin <-> Monero atomic swaps ? What a time to be alive !

No kidding...  And that functionality would a a super powerful combo.  Bitcoin will have just gotten a layer 2 modern day Swiss bank account extension.

Then again...  nullc said when he left Blockstream he would be working on privacy, presumably for BTC, although he seems to be a Monero fan as well seeing as his profile here has a XMR address in it. Wink
thrax
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January 22, 2018, 01:16:33 AM


It's here. It used to be called "analysis never ends", but he changed the title to "analysis".

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.0

he hasn't posted directly in a long time

He seems to post once every four or five months now. If he continues that pattern we are due another post in March or April.

He probably made so much from trading that he's too busy with lambos, hookers, and blow to bother posting here much.

Nevertheless he still finds time to post on twitter and tradingview.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/masterluc?lang=en

https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/
muadib83
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January 22, 2018, 01:17:27 AM

Its going down again - and again lost money omg Angry
cAPSLOCK
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January 22, 2018, 01:19:20 AM

Its going down again - and again lost money omg Angry

If you sell now you will have done so just in time to buy back in at a loss!  Again!
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January 22, 2018, 01:24:34 AM

This is bullshit - I bought at 11.300 - Sold 11.500 - still I am down 120$ because everyone sold ealier eh - what a crap
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January 22, 2018, 01:26:36 AM

So when was the last time someone actually spotted some bid or ask wall and posted about it in this thread?
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January 22, 2018, 01:28:44 AM

@thrax, @jojo69, @infofront - Thanks for the links!
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January 22, 2018, 01:32:50 AM

Fuck it I am waiting till ratings;p and CME - will decide then to quit for a while to be sure of the trend or when it drops to 8k (wont happen imho right now)
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January 22, 2018, 01:43:59 AM

As I see it - whales do money if it is dipping, and if it is going up Embarrassed

There is no exchange with my fiat that I could win in daytrade.


I bought btc back but I see it will dip for sure - but at my exchanges there is so low volume and bot manipulation that even If i sell and buy back at night when it will be low - still I wont be +

And no one here have shown me any good reason/evidence that Hodling = winning

If you holdl from january 2013, you make about a 1000x in 5 years.

This is a good reason/evidence.



So you want to say that Bitcoin will never drop? Please in whole history of stock - find me company or anything that never ever dropped? Please


Sorry but I am not rich - no one gave me anything. Right now I will try on 0.175btc and HODL not looking on the price. If it goes up for uptrend I buy more. If it goes down - oh well that wasn't so much.

Maybe you have just described why you are such a fucking loser?

You are too scared, you lack confidence in bitcoin and it looks like you engage in the opposite practice of what you should be doing.


You seem to be buying on the way up and selling on the way down.   Instead you should be buying on the way down and selling on the way up.  

I actually do this, but I don't understand why "buying on the way down, selling on the way up" is better than vice versa.

Right now, I keep a base/starting value (edited occasionally) for some of my coins, and if the price increases by "x" amount, then for every "y" increase after I sell "z" percentage of my gains at market value, and "z" depends on bull or bearish sentiment that I feel.

Similar principle for buying on the way down.

Why is this better than doing the other way around though?


O.k.  You say that you are already doing the right thing, but you do not know why it is the right thing because you have some kind of inclination to do the opposite?

Actually I will concede that I believe that a large number of people are inclined to do the opposite of what they should, and that is to buy on the way up and to sell on the way down.  

I think that if you really believe in the underlying fundamentals of an asset or you believe that in the longer term that the asset is going to appreciate in value, then you buy on the way down and you sell on the way up because you are trying to accumulate more and more of the asset, and you are also trying to protect yourself from downside volatility.  Your formula for how much you buy on the way down and how much that you sell on the way up will likely need to be tweaked, somewhat, towards  your views and finances.  

For example, I first started accumulating bitcoin in November 2013 - however, perhaps I was lucky, to some extent, because I merely considered myself in an accumulation phase of bitcoin, and even though I knew about the sell on the way up concept, I was so busy attempting to accumulate bitcoin that I never sold any but merely continued to buy on the way down for nearly two years (and also including some dollar cost average investing into that practice).  So, there was some luck in my system, because bitcoin prices largely went down and were flat during my accumulation stage.  

When I first started trading bitcoin in about October 2015, I started out by authorizing myself to sell in fairly tight price increments, because I was trying to get a lot of practice.  Those selling increments added up to selling nearly 2% for every 10% price rise, and I was attempting to accomplish a couple of things.  1st was to accumulate money that I could use to buy back during what I considered to be inevitable price falling from time to time and 2nd was to hopefully (at some point) have accumulated some money to just completely remove from the investment.  With the passage of time, I also figured out various things about my own risk tolerances and what kinds of practices were suitable for me.  I figured out that I have to attempt to set intervals and amounts that would not cause me to be inclined to change them very much because they already accounted for the market outrunning my expectations, and also I developed an inclination to have buy orders that were already set up to automatically buy up to a 30% price correction (and then later the amounts got to be greater and greater, and today for me, such automatic buy order presets go down about 85%.  

Another thing that happened with the passage of time is that my increments between my sales spread to be bigger and bigger (and even a larger percentage apart from one another) but I was also selling less of a percentage of my whole BTC portfolio, so instead of selling nearly 2% of the value of my total BTC portfolio for every 10% price rise, currently my rate is still above 1% for every 10%, but is projected to lower to below 1% sales for every 10% rise in BTC price.  Of course, I am not locked into this and I can either tweak the method or I can make a large lump sum move, if i determine that to be prudent at any given time.  

Yet, with the passage of time and practicing my own system, I have also learned that it tends to play out much better if I just try to employ it like a robot rather than trying to guess the market in any kind of way.

I think that the reason that this kind of buy on the way down and sell on the way up system works better than the opposite is that you are much more likely to sell some at the top and buy some at the bottom than any kind of attempt at timing the market system.  Don't have to think about it or get emotionally involved and the main presumption remains that you are overall long term bullish about the asset in which you are investing in order to feel some level of assurance that in the long term your system is going to be profitable.


I actually do this, but I don't understand why "buying on the way down, selling on the way up" is better than vice versa.
...
Why is this better than doing the other way around though?

If you do it the other way around, "buying on the way up, selling on the way down", you would be buying on the higher price and selling on the lower and be in a loss. Isn't it obvious? When you "buy on the way down, sell on the way up" you actually have a profit at every cycle.


or in other words, this^^^^  - saying the same thing as me but with 10,000x fewer characters.   Cheesy
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