Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Jacques_Bittard]

Trading cryptos is as addictive as gambling.  When I break my rule of not trading on bear markets, then I get burned. During the rule of Karhu, one must be humble and without greed. Karhu will bless those who will stay in fiat and keep out of crypto during these times. Predictability is too low and the odds unfavorable for success.
There are rumors that 'Binance hack' was just a diversion. Something that sounded alarming enough to justify the selling volume, and something that was weak enough for regular Joes to keep up their bids to catch the "panic sellers".
Usually, during bull markets the weekdays are good and the weekends are bad. During bear markets, it's usually the opposite. So, there is a good chance that the price will recover a little in the next couple of days, but it still is a risky gamble, because bear markets have the tendency steer in the direction that will be surprising to the majority.

The main thing that gives bitcoin value is belief. Belief has to pay for about 5 billion dollars per year for electricity and hardware to run a payment network with 5 million users. That is a lot of weight on belief and belief can only do so much. Unnecessarily expensive and outdated systems like BTC PoW mining are dragging this market down.

[mymenace]

I wanted followers to COMPARE the chart ABOVE with this Schematic Image - https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png

I've found - When comparing Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics to crypto currency pairs AFTER a major consolidation event - the highs of the Automatic Rallies in Phase A are hardly ever near the same level as the highs of automatic rallies in phase B. So, do NOT assume Phase A "highs" on crypto currency charts MUST look the same or similar to that which is seen in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. That schematic is ONLY an example and by no means implies the price action MUST play out EXACTLY as depicted in the Schematic.

Wyckoff Schematics MAINLY referred to stocks NOT crypto. Stocks hardly EVER drop down the percentages crypto does in such a short time span. Nor do they hardly EVER pump up the percentages crypto does in such a short time span. This is the main reason the HIGH of an Automatic Rally in Phase A is hardly ever up to the height of the highs in Phase B of an Accumulation Schematic.

Also keep in mind I "know" I have members of Composite Groups who frequent my posts in publications. I'm NOT saying that to be arrogant or to act like I'm "somebody of note." Cause I'm not... I simply "know" because two of them are following me. Also, I'm NOT going to say their user name.

I'm simply pointing this out to say this information could be used to your disadvantage if you're not careful. Meaning, it's STILL possible they take this down to the 0.618 FIB at $8,123.82 before they begin a SPRING with A TEST.

Remember, as I posted in the note in the chart above, a SPRING is a price move BELOW the support level of the Trading Range (TR) established in phases A and B that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop BELOW support APPEARS to signal resumption of the downtrend. IN REALITY, THOUGH, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a SUCCESSFUL test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity.

IMPORTANT: A low-volume SPRING (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position. The key is checking the volume in our current location compared to previous downward price movements.

NOTE: how I had the Red Horizontal Ray marking the Upper part of the trading range (TR) and the Black Horizontal Ray marking the SUPPORT part of the trading range (TR). We have just now went below the support line of the trading range.  The BLACK SUPPORT LINE of the TR at $9022.82 and the RED RESISTANCE LINE of the TR at $11,780.

Here is a link with further information on the EVENTS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE SCHEMATIC. It was put together well in a short synopsis of Wyckoff Schematics: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

Books by Wyckoff can be found here. However, make sure to scroll down till you see the name, Richard Wyckoff. MANY other books on trading can be found here as well. Excellent source of trading material FREE online: http://www.traders-software.com/Trading%20Books/

An excellent video to start with on teachings for Wyckoff by David H. Weis can be found here: "David Weis on Wyckoff, Support/Resistance , and Waves" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzISUr1itWg&amp=&ytbChannel=BigMikeTrading

3 day candle chart on bitcoinwisdom shows a close enough double top

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_top_and_double_bottom
The time between the two peaks is also a determining factor for the existence of a double top pattern. If the tops appear at the same level but are very close in time, then the probability is high that they are part of the consolidation and the trend will resume.

current trend is bullish both technical and fundamental

very close tops
good chance to buy

[dmwardjr]

3 day candle chart on bitcoinwisdom shows a close enough double top

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_top_and_double_bottom
The time between the two peaks is also a determining factor for the existence of a double top pattern. If the tops appear at the same level but are very close in time, then the probability is high that they are part of the consolidation and the trend will resume.

current trend is bullish both technical and fundamental

very close tops
good chance to buy

Agreed...

[Rosewater Foundation]

Trends mean as much as my ass does with Kobayashi on the loose.
NB. My ass means nothing

[dmwardjr]

Trends mean as much as my ass does with Kobayashi on the loose.
NB. My ass means nothing

Well, with him advertising what he has to sell, I'm sure there are plenty of multi-millionaires out there who would love to chew him a new ass by gobbling up those coins.

[JayJuanGee]

3 day candle chart on bitcoinwisdom shows a close enough double top

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_top_and_double_bottom
The time between the two peaks is also a determining factor for the existence of a double top pattern. If the tops appear at the same level but are very close in time, then the probability is high that they are part of the consolidation and the trend will resume.

current trend is bullish both technical and fundamental

very close tops
good chance to buy

Agreed...

I don't know what to think.

I did spend part of today restructuring several of my BTC buy orders in seemingly realistic possible ways between $8700 and $3,500, just in case.

My BTC sell orders are largely in place - and they go up to what feels like embarrassingly high levels that are NOT likely to fill any time soon - even though they had seemed like they were with a range of decently probable in mid-December... now those sell orders are all just dangling up there, reminding me in a kind of "stratospheric" area.

[mymenace]

3 day candle chart on bitcoinwisdom shows a close enough double top

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_top_and_double_bottom
The time between the two peaks is also a determining factor for the existence of a double top pattern. If the tops appear at the same level but are very close in time, then the probability is high that they are part of the consolidation and the trend will resume.

current trend is bullish both technical and fundamental

very close tops
good chance to buy

Agreed...

I don't know what to think.

I did spend part of today restructuring several of my BTC buy orders in seemingly realistic possible ways between $8700 and $3,500, just in case.

My BTC sell orders are largely in place - and they go up to what feels like embarrassingly high levels that are NOT likely to fill any time soon - even though they had seemed like they were with a range of decently probable in mid-December... now those sell orders are all just dangling up there, reminding me in a kind of "stratospheric" area.

same feeling

from about price point $6000USD (and got it back their to rebuy) seems like someone else took over the markets

both fud and btc volume,

5 sides from what i can tell , bcash, mining, media, legislation, hacks

testing control and moving up and down

opportunity if you can get it, $2000 swings


Belief the train has left the station
Belief the technology is on a rocket to the moon
Belief there are no more stations, all aboard

Then why the stoppage?

[Rosewater Foundation]

Because 160,000 BTC are preparing to be dumped on the market. Am I the only one here??

[mymenace]

Trading cryptos is as addictive as gambling.  When I break my rule of not trading on bear markets, then I get burned. During the rule of Karhu, one must be humble and without greed. Karhu will bless those who will stay in fiat and keep out of crypto during these times. Predictability is too low and the odds unfavorable for success.
There are rumors that 'Binance hack' was just a diversion. Something that sounded alarming enough to justify the selling volume, and something that was weak enough for regular Joes to keep up their bids to catch the "panic sellers".
Usually, during bull markets the weekdays are good and the weekends are bad. During bear markets, it's usually the opposite. So, there is a good chance that the price will recover a little in the next couple of days, but it still is a risky gamble, because bear markets have the tendency steer in the direction that will be surprising to the majority.

The main thing that gives bitcoin value is belief. Belief has to pay for about 5 billion dollars per year for electricity and hardware to run a payment network with 5 million users. That is a lot of weight on belief and belief can only do so much. Unnecessarily expensive and outdated systems like BTC PoW mining are dragging this market down.

from about price point $6000USD seems like someone else took over the markets

both fud and btc volume,

5 sides from what i can tell , bcash, mining, media, legislation, hacks

testing control and moving up and down

opportunity if you can get it, $2000 swings


Belief the train has left the station
Belief the technology is on a rocket to the moon
Belief there are no more stations, all aboard

Then why the stoppage?

fib chart perfect each bottom hey








yes the mtgox sell off over 164000btc we hearin and seein it

[explorer]

Another wannabe trader thinks he can analyse patterns, trends and support/resistance on the 5 minute chart.



Sigh.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[JayJuanGee]

Because 160,000 BTC are preparing to be dumped on the market. Am I the only one here??

That is not true.

It might happen, but you are overly emphasizing the thread or even the impact of 160k coins hitting the BTC market.  BTC can easily absorb 160k coins if there is not some of the other FUD going on including.. just FUDsters taking advantage of downward momentum to see if they can get weak hands like you to sell.

[Rosewater Foundation]

BTC can easily absorb 160k coins

Wat??

[Bitcoinaire]

I should've sold more in January.....

[bones261]

Because 160,000 BTC are preparing to be dumped on the market. Am I the only one here??

That is not true.

It might happen, but you are overly emphasizing the thread or even the impact of 160k coins hitting the BTC market.  BTC can easily absorb 160k coins if there is not some of the other FUD going on including.. just FUDsters taking advantage of downward momentum to see if they can get weak hands like you to sell.

According to this article, http://fortune.com/2018/03/07/nobuaki-kobayash-sells-bitcoin/, he's been selling since September. It seems he is taking some care to not totally crash the market. To give some perspective, it takes about 92 days to mine 165,000 coins. I think the market can handle it. Although it might hobble along for quite a while.

[HairyMaclairy]

How is it that no one has figured out that Kobayashi is actually Keyser Soze?

[mymenace]

Because 160,000 BTC are preparing to be dumped on the market. Am I the only one here??

That is not true.

It might happen, but you are overly emphasizing the thread or even the impact of 160k coins hitting the BTC market.  BTC can easily absorb 160k coins if there is not some of the other FUD going on including.. just FUDsters taking advantage of downward momentum to see if they can get weak hands like you to sell.

According to this article, http://fortune.com/2018/03/07/nobuaki-kobayash-sells-bitcoin/, he's been selling since September. It seems he is taking some care to not totally crash the market. To give some perspective, it takes about 92 days to mine 165,000 coins. I think the market can handle it. Although it might hobble along for quite a while.

listen to the universe and the report

he wants top value for the coin

buy the dip

$2000 swings easy

sideways action

have fun

[HairyMaclairy]

Hindsight being what it is, I knew I should have listened to my gut and sold a chunk at $11.5k the other day

Fuck.

Oh well.

I have no idea why the Dumposaurus Rex is chasing everyone down this evening.

Chill out a few more years and be a billionaire instead. And have women from Town & Country magazine scoping you out, which seems to be some American version of Tatler. Crypto at the gates indeed. 

[dakiller]

Doing some bear planning



uploaded photo

[jojo69]

oversold up to the 4 hourly

imma ladder buy down from here

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

same feeling

from about price point $6000USD (and got it back their to rebuy) seems like someone else took over the markets

Yeah a lot of sudden downward movement in a very short period of time.

I believe that we still likely have decent buying support at $8k and $7,500; however I suspect that there would not be a lot of buying support between about $5k and $7,500 - in the event that support does not hold in the lower $8k or the mid $7ks.

In other words, I have decent doubts that $6k would hold another time once we start to get back into the $6k price territory, if such were to happen.

both fud and btc volume,

Of course, we cannot be surprised by large price drops FUD spreading because this is bitcoin.

5 sides from what i can tell , bcash, mining, media, legislation, hacks

Bcash seems to be yesterdays news and losing influence.

But there are at least a few areas besides merely taking advantage of momentum..

testing control and moving up and down

opportunity if you can get it, $2000 swings

I am a bit too chicken shit to wait for $2k increments to buy back in, so I buy back in tighter increments around $350, these days.

Belief the train has left the station
Belief the technology is on a rocket to the moon
Belief there are no more stations, all aboard

Then why the stoppage?

This may be  a shaking of the ICO and altcoin parasites as Marcus Augustus mentioned a few weeks ago.  There may be a more decent market incentive to shake some the altcoin and ICO trash.