Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Vlada69]

I’m not going anywhere.   I’ve got another 5 years of hold in me. At least.  As I have said many times before, I will be accumulating sub $5k if we get there and very aggressively should we approach 2014 Gox ATH.  

The only way $1200 is possible if bitcoin would be on the way to it's death.
Buying in that situation would be a wrong move.

There was a dip about this time last year.




It soon recovered afterwards.

Yes but mil$ question where it will be?

[1634738669]

1634738669

[Rosewater Foundation]

I'm about ready to capitulate myself. Is it best to dollars cost average your way out as well?
PS. I have no complaints, have done well.

Yes, it is better to dollar cost average the exit, exactly the same as the investment. Unless you were to know for sure it is gonna rise or dump for good.... which you, obviously, don't.

Or just change your trading strategy to "bear market" and do aggresive trades with the target of extracting fiat instead of increasing BTC. It depends on your hurry to fully exit though.

That said, I am considering capitulating too. Except my way of capitulating would be the same I did in 2014-2015... ie: Just hodl, forget, and move onto other things indefinitely.

Thanks for your honesty.

[birr]

I'm about ready to capitulate myself. Is it best to dollars cost average your way out as well?
PS. I have no complaints, have done well.

Consider that in dollar cost averaging, you convert dollars at a steady rate into another asset.  It works, because when the asset is expensive, your dollars buy less of it, and when the asset is cheap your dollars buy more of it.  That's exactly how you want to go about buying something.
Now consider selling an asset.  If you extract dollars at a steady rate from your store of the asset, it means that when the asset is expensive, you sell less of it, and when the asset is cheap you sell more of it.  That is most definitely not how you want to do it.
Instead, to wind down your position in an asset, you should sell that asset at a steady rate; e.g., sell the same amount of bitcoin every month.
By doing it that way, you are getting more dollars when bitcoin is expensive, and less dollars when bitcoin is cheap.
Another way to think about it is this:  when you acquire an asset using dollar cost averaging, in effect you're selling dollars, and by selling those dollars at a steady rate you get the best results.  Winding down an asset's position is the mirror image that process.  You're selling bitcoin, and selling those bitcoins at a steady rate denominated in bitcoin (not dollars) gives the best results.

[Anon136]

I’m not going anywhere.   I’ve got another 5 years of hold in me. At least.  As I have said many times before, I will be accumulating sub $5k if we get there and very aggressively should we approach 2014 Gox ATH.  

The only way $1200 is possible if bitcoin would be on the way to it's death.
Buying in that situation would be a wrong move.

There was a dip about this time last year.




It soon recovered afterwards.

Yes but mil$ question where it will be?

Still not seeing a capitulation candle.

[Biodom]

Just hodl, forget, and move onto other things indefinitely.

Yeah, I increased my stock market activity and decreased my btc trading activity from low to almost nonexistent.
The whole up-down thingie is bewildering to me and I cannot trade what I don't understand.

[HI-TEC99]

I'm about ready to capitulate myself. Is it best to dollars cost average your way out as well?
PS. I have no complaints, have done well.

Yes, it is better to dollar cost average the exit, exactly the same as the investment. Unless you were to know for sure it is gonna rise or dump for good.... which you, obviously, don't.

Or just change your trading strategy to "bear market" and do aggresive trades with the target of extracting fiat instead of increasing BTC. It depends on your hurry to fully exit though.

That said, I am considering capitulating too. Except my way of capitulating would be the same I did in 2014-2015... ie: Just hodl, forget, and move onto other things indefinitely.

Hodling's better than this trading strategy.

[bones261]

I’m not going anywhere.   I’ve got another 5 years of hold in me. At least.  As I have said many times before, I will be accumulating sub $5k if we get there and very aggressively should we approach 2014 Gox ATH.  

The only way $1200 is possible if bitcoin would be on the way to it's death.
Buying in that situation would be a wrong move.

Only if I notice that my Twitter feed has run dry and no one is posting here anymore. If there is still a somewhat active community, BTC is not truly dead. Even if the price is terribly low.

[Vlada69]

I’m not going anywhere.   I’ve got another 5 years of hold in me. At least.  As I have said many times before, I will be accumulating sub $5k if we get there and very aggressively should we approach 2014 Gox ATH.  

The only way $1200 is possible if bitcoin would be on the way to it's death.
Buying in that situation would be a wrong move.

There was a dip about this time last year.




It soon recovered afterwards.

Yes but mil$ question where it will be?

Still not seeing a capitulation candle.

me neither. bch/btc is ready to blow up unless PV has prepared some other surprise...

[somac.]

some of his questions are interesting... (not radix lol)

What's wrong with radix? genuinely interested, as I've heard a little about it before and it sounded somewhat non-scam like.

When I last looked it was a target for botnets and sybil attacks and was claiming turing-completeness which is idiotic (verging on scammery).
Ideologically also for me, all alts are irrelevant, not least because of the Lindy effect and centralisation around a weird bloke from Stoke-on-Trent.

Do you know when it was that you last looked? I might take a look myself to see if those things have changed.

[Last of the V8s]

some of his questions are interesting... (not radix lol)

What's wrong with radix? genuinely interested, as I've heard a little about it before and it sounded somewhat non-scam like.

When I last looked it was a target for botnets and sybil attacks and was claiming turing-completeness which is idiotic (verging on scammery).
Ideologically also for me, all alts are irrelevant, not least because of the Lindy effect and centralisation around a weird bloke from Stoke-on-Trent.

Do you know when it was that you last looked? I might take a look myself to see if those things have changed.

end of 2017. ish

[somac.]

some of his questions are interesting... (not radix lol)

What's wrong with radix? genuinely interested, as I've heard a little about it before and it sounded somewhat non-scam like.

When I last looked it was a target for botnets and sybil attacks and was claiming turing-completeness which is idiotic (verging on scammery).
Ideologically also for me, all alts are irrelevant, not least because of the Lindy effect and centralisation around a weird bloke from Stoke-on-Trent.

Do you know when it was that you last looked? I might take a look myself to see if those things have changed.

end of 2017. ish

Probably not much different then.

[Biodom]

Still not seeing a capitulation candle.

When was the US stock market capitulation candle during the 1929-1932 Depression?
The correct answer is NEVER.
Those who sold at the bottom of Black Tuesday in 1929 actually got a very decent price.

[Anon136]

I’m not going anywhere.   I’ve got another 5 years of hold in me. At least.  As I have said many times before, I will be accumulating sub $5k if we get there and very aggressively should we approach 2014 Gox ATH.  

The only way $1200 is possible if bitcoin would be on the way to it's death.
Buying in that situation would be a wrong move.

Only if I notice that my Twitter feed has run dry and no one is posting here anymore. If there is still a somewhat active community, BTC is not truly dead. Even if the price is terribly low.

Don't forget https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin very useful tool as well.

Still not seeing a capitulation candle.

When was the US stock market capitulation candle during the 1929-1932 Depression?
The correct answer is NEVER.
Those who sold at the bottom of Black Tuesday in 1929 actually got a very decent price.

It's more useful as a positive indicator than a negative one. When you see one the price is almost certainly about to reverse, how ever the absence of one doesn't mean it isn't going to reverse. Looking back at the history of bitcoin we see them ~50% of the time.

[Elwar]

Been busy SCUBA diving in Tahiti. Noticed the price is down a little. Locals wanting to buy from me. Me telling them I don't sell the dip. Will have to hold off on pocket money for a few.

[Anon136]

Been busy SCUBA diving in Tahiti. Noticed the price is down a little. Locals wanting to buy from me. Me telling them I don't sell the dip. Will have to hold off on pocket money for a few.

Wow an old face. Cool to see someone from so long ago still around.

[infofront]

Been busy SCUBA diving in Tahiti. Noticed the price is down a little. Locals wanting to buy from me. Me telling them I don't sell the dip. Will have to hold off on pocket money for a few.

Haha. The life of an OG Hodler.

[ivomm]

Jan, Feb, March 2017 - oscillating between 800 and 1200$. April, May, June 2017 - jump to 3000$.
Jan, Feb, March 2018 - oscillating between 8000 and 12000$. April, May, June 2018 - jump to 30000$?

Don't forget that all bears tend to turn magically into bulls from time to time. Especially when they feel the market is in the desperation phase.  

[blacky90]

Buying now is a good idea?

[Lontonbit]

Buying now is a good idea?

It's the best time time ever

[smileflowers]

it's a good time to buy bitcoin