Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RayX12]

...... FUD

It correlates very well (suspiciously well in fact) with the 2013 bubble aftermath. However, the timeline is hugely accelerated, meaning we're almost at the bottom of it already. By my reckoning, it will take a maximum of two more months to bottom out, assuming it hasn't already. The massive volumes we saw on 6 Feb  at $6k will be hard to beat and I'm still in two minds whether that's likely to get broken again.

http://telegra.ph/Inferno-market-outlook-The-Double-Bubble-Analysis-03-16

wow!  LOOK AT THAT GRAPH!

The bottom is in... me thinks!

Go BITCOIN GO

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-16/fewer-americans-hold-cryptocurrencies-than-you-probably-think

Great stuff from Bloomberg there.
What do you reckon the real figure for ownership is? 0.5%?

[Elwar]

It correlates very well (suspiciously well in fact) with the 2013 bubble aftermath. However, the timeline is hugely accelerated, meaning we're almost at the bottom of it already. By my reckoning, it will take a maximum of two more months to bottom out, assuming it hasn't already. The massive volumes we saw on 6 Feb  at $6k will be hard to beat and I'm still in two minds whether that's likely to get broken again.

Yes, I'm hoping this is the case. Though I am prepared for a hold out until 2020 just in case.

My bottom for my retirement number is about $3500. But even if it dips below that for a little while it's all good.

[bitserve]

I hate to say it but this looks like another long term downtrend like we get after all of the huge spikes in price.

It might end up that we have to wait until late 2019 for a reversal as we start to near the next halving.

Either way I will hodl because trying to time the market and play like a trader has never done well for me. It's always been best to just buy and hodl.

We will shoot up past $19k probably in 2020 but until then, get ready for the long winter.

It correlates very well (suspiciously well in fact) with the 2013 bubble aftermath. However, the timeline is hugely accelerated, meaning we're almost at the bottom of it already. By my reckoning, it will take a maximum of two more months to bottom out, assuming it hasn't already. The massive volumes we saw on 6 Feb  at $6k will be hard to beat and I'm still in two minds whether that's likely to get broken again.

http://telegra.ph/Inferno-market-outlook-The-Double-Bubble-Analysis-03-16

Another thing we should take into account is 2013 rise was MUCH more explosive too. Granted both 2013 and 2017 were clearly "bubbly" but 2013 experienced a rise from around $10 at January to $1200 at december. That is more than a 100x in just one year.

2017 was more or less 20x from dip to peak, so 5 times less explosive in comparison.

So.. well.... there are differences for sure. Not only past behaviour doesn't guarantee future ones but, it is in fact different circumstances.

If the deflating of the "bubble" were to also be 5 times less intense, that would mean a -2x instead of a -10x as a bottom (if there were such correlation). Which is more or less the price we are now (or it could be anything from $5K to $12K).

Of course the price can go any direction in the short term but I guess it will end up stabilising on the right price and continue with the trend. I would not discard the possibility of a new ATH this same year just yet, although I think the probabilities now are not bigger than that of a long winter (hopefully not than long as the last one).

[Last of the V8s]

https://livestream.com/accounts/27034343/events/8107686/videos/171628467

@mechmarkets 4 hours ago https://twitter.com/mechmarkets/status/975016524418310144

Here is Winklevoss happily describing what sounds like hedge fund fiduciaries front-running clients on his exchange, Gemini.

[blacky90]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

[Anon136]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

What altcoin actually has real utility? Monero, ethereum and maybe filecoin (when it comes out)? And of those 3 only one is a money. So really only Monero should be capitalized beyond what is necessary for on network token utility. Bitcoin dominance should probably be 80% or more.

[bobo012]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

I think it is not enough. Correction will come, but in Bitcoins favor.

[cAPSLOCK]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

I think it is not enough. Correction will come, but in Bitcoins favor.

Ooh.  I see a cagematch forming!

[Elwar]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

What altcoin actually has real utility? Monero, ethereum and maybe filecoin (when it comes out)? And of those 3 only one is a money. So really only Monero should be capitalized beyond what is necessary for on network token utility. Bitcoin dominance should probably be 80% or more.

BBQcoin

you can buy BBQ sauce with it!

[bitserve]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

What altcoin actually has real utility? Monero, ethereum and maybe filecoin (when it comes out)? And of those 3 only one is a money. So really only Monero should be capitalized beyond what is necessary for on network token utility. Bitcoin dominance should probably be 80% or more.

BBQcoin

you can buy BBQ sauce with it!

Bcash

You can buy more  Bitcorns dumping onto Ver pumps!

[blacky90]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

I think it is not enough. Correction will come, but in Bitcoins favor.

for an coin that can not be used as a currency i highly doubt that

[bobo012]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

What altcoin actually has real utility? Monero, ethereum and maybe filecoin (when it comes out)? And of those 3 only one is a money. So really only Monero should be capitalized beyond what is necessary for on network token utility. Bitcoin dominance should probably be 80% or more.

BBQcoin

you can buy BBQ sauce with it!

Theres also potcoin. You cant buy anything with that, but a lot of people worldwide loves pot.

[bobo012]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

I think it is not enough. Correction will come, but in Bitcoins favor.

for an coin that can not be used as a currency i highly doubt that

98% of alts are vaporware. There's some legit of course.
As this crypto market slides down, i expect dominance of btc to rise. hence i expect alts to crash more and thus increase dominance

[cAPSLOCK]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

I think it is not enough. Correction will come, but in Bitcoins favor.

for an coin that can not be used as a currency i highly doubt that

*sigh*  You don't really have very much bitcoin do you?

[bitserve]

wow i think 43% bitcoin dominance is way too much

correction will come soon

I think it is not enough. Correction will come, but in Bitcoins favor.

for an coin that can not be used as a currency i highly doubt that

*sigh*  You don't really have very much bitcoin do you?

Most probably his net amount of BTC is *negative*. Simply not having any Bitcoin would not be enough of a reason to be here spreading ridiculous FUD with no vested interest at all.

P.S.: 43.1% now.

[Anon136]

As a business owner I wouldn't price anything in bitcoin. Not yet anyway. Maybe after wider adoption it's volatility calms down. But you can still price your products in ounces of gold or silver and take bitcoin as payment. So that whole "bitcoin cant be a currency" thing is dumb. It may or may not ever be a good money. But it makes a fine currency even right now.

[PoolMinor]

@birr... The first part of your discussion of dollar cost averaging lends some insight to the practice because you are indicating that there is something wrong with employing an opposite strategy... however, then your suggestion largely devolves into a kind of recommendation of a reverse dollar cost average strategy.

NO matter if you are in a BTC accumulation stage, or a maintenance stage or a liquidation stage, your strategy should be to attempt to sell BTC on the way up and to buy BTC on the way down.  Of course the more you are on one spectrum or another remains a personal choice but it also effects how you may employ the strategy.  So for example, if you are in a BTC accumulation stage you might buy more on dips and perhaps sell less on rises because your goal is accumulation, but that should not cause you to sell on the way down or buy on the way up.

Usually, if some one who is employing a sell on the way up and buy on the way down is panicking because they screwed up and did not sell enough, so the strategy probably would be to attempt to make up for the screw up by selling a decent sized chunk and then returning to the strategy of buying if the price goes down with the proceeds that were generated from the sale.

Continuing to sell on the way down or creating a plan that continues to sell on the way down is not a good strategy nor is it equally good as buying on the way down... and perhaps making and emergency sell because of a screw up and then maybe even going back to HODL, if not feeling comfortable enough to buying on the way down.

What's wrong with my post?  I am merely describing a practice, and my disagreement that a kind of incremental selling on the way down that has been described as dollar cost averaging is a good plan.. In essence, I think that largely it is stupid because it seems ill thought out because it contradicts the more important strategy, which should be buying on the way down (not selling on the way down).

Geez louise....I cannot tell if you are trolling or not?
It should have been obvious that I am agreeing with you here. I merited the post, then I post a picture illustrating that I agree with it.

I realize we have been at odds in the past but it should serve as a breath of fresh air for you that I find your opinion to be valid. Your strategy is very similar to mine, very simply, buy on the way down and sell on the way up.

-PoolMinor

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

As a business owner I wouldn't price anything in bitcoin. Not yet anyway. Maybe after wider adoption it's volatility calms down. But you can still price your products in ounces of gold or silver and take bitcoin as payment. So that whole "bitcoin cant be a currency" thing is dumb. It may or may not ever be a good money. But it makes a fine currency even right now.

It's far more convenient than the payment methods Europe generally uses right now, as credit cards aren't really that much of a thing there. Once the likes of Lightning Network and mass adoption in retail take place I won't really see myself using any other currency anymore unless I had to.

[bones261]

Just giving a 2x leverage short a try. We should be getting big green dildos, shortly.

Yea you're screwed buddy. I just put up a sell order. That means the price is about to moon.

I'm too much of a chicken shit for this. Closed my position. Maybe another day.