Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Majormax]

Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom! "?

Well, yes : and reasons : 

Price/      Time/    Volume/

Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive.  This is advanced trading logic.

By example in this case:

IF  volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough.

IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows.

IF  price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low).

So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much.  Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V .

Aha! Great insight! In other words, what counts is mainly the sum of volume * price... right?
I'd never seen it from this angle, but it makes a lot of sense.

One thing I like about this place is that there's always something to take away. At least for me.

Yes, you are a logical thinker.

Most people seem to think that there are pre determined price levels, whereas of course that is not true. You can always make estimates with if/but caveats, and I attempt to do that. My validation is in my successful trade over decades. I have made all my income and assets myself, entirely from trading.

You are right in that this is a great thread, with only a minimal amount of trolls and ad hominem attackers.

[criptix]

Well...I will likely DIE with my BTC hoard intact...but if BTC hits $6k, I am annoucing here now I will panic sell like an 8 year old child...all my

non-hoard btc/ltc and probably a good chunk of my LISK ICO coins.....

I retired 1/14/18 (yep ..that bit of karma broke the crypto universe) so goal is NOT to touch soc sec or traditional investment and/or cover

health insurance next 3 years till I'm 66 years old. (my brother is broker of traditional investments)

thus my exit strategy and the FUD to follow on NOT selling at the high on Alts and my BTC hoard....my reply, HOPEFULLY, will be in 3 years if it all goes to sh*t...

'crypto allowed me to retire 3 years early...bite me'


as an end game it lacks a bit of class...but if the BTC hoard is intact.....well ..ugly but do'able.....will just have to 'suck it up'

the pucker factor is getting intense...at least for my ALT hoard....(don't ask about scrypt-pow mining I will start to cry...)

fun,fun

brad

The day might come when the last hodler will forsaken BTC but this day is not today.

Today we just hodl and wet our pants  

[d_eddie]

Last summer majormax said there would be no new ATH for another few years. Bitcoin hit a $20k ATH half a year later.

(relevant quote snipped)

Today he's making the same prediction of a few years of bear market without another ATH. His trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.

(more doom and gloom stuff)

Great of you to out bunk predictions!
To use the words of our resident gay star,

Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.

which may well be the case. Predicting the future is an art for artists, visionaries, madmen. Over half of which are proved wrong anyway.

However, this doesn't detract from that specific observation: P/ T/ V/. I think it really makes a lot of sense, and it's a valuable tool to analyze any situation - not just the current one - and not necessarily to obtain accurate long term predictions. A few weeks would be more than enough in most crypto circumstances.

[d_eddie]

Well...I will likely DIE with my BTC hoard intact...but if BTC hits $6k, I am annoucing here now I will panic sell like an 8 year old child...all my

non-hoard btc/ltc and probably a good chunk of my LISK ICO coins.....

What? A seasoned old timer, early adopter, pioneer miner like you?

NO WAY!

Try to do that, and we will ask Bob to show you how wrong you were. I hear he's got lots of time on his hands right now...

[cAPSLOCK]

45.6

 


wow, this is escalating quickly. what is going on in the altworld? eth collapse?  

Bingo.   Also all the trash.  Well all but Btrash.  I need to see it die in a fire.  A few quality projects are faring better.  If you sort the drop from low to high you will see a list made up at least 70% by projects will real utility or proven value and/or stability Monero, Decred, ZCash, Namecoin, Lightcoin.  And along with those last two another venerable oldies: peercoin and primecoin!

ETC is actually green.  And I am not sure what that means...  because I think the ETH implosion is partly because we really don't NEED that technology.  Lightning will likely supplant it eventually.

Until lightning is mature.  I believe coins with true utility and/or testbed functionality will remain viable.

[BitcoinBunny]

Speaking of capitulation, I'm CONSIDERING starting to contemplate selling a batch - if I can - between $7.5-$8k before end of March just to get the tax monkey off my back. Sent an email to my accountant asking what the penalty is on $xM deferred from Q1 to Q2.

Seriously.

Sheeeit.

No proud to admit this.

Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.
EVERYONE.

I'm thinking the same.

We can all hope/say it will moon in the future but short to mid term trading is as unpredictable as anything.

I don't see the point of drawing a line between tops and bottoms AT A CERTAIN POINT and then extrapolating onwards. Those lines are constantly changing from what I've seen over the last 1 1/2 years.

[undeadbitcoiner]

but if BTC hits $6k, I am annoucing here now I will panic sell like an 8 year old child...

...and then it'll jump off from $5.9k.

Back to 10K and will be Crying like 7 Years old 

[d_eddie]

Speaking of capitulation, I'm CONSIDERING starting to contemplate selling a batch - if I can - between $7.5-$8k before end of March just to get the tax monkey off my back. Sent an email to my accountant asking what the penalty is on $xM deferred from Q1 to Q2.

Seriously.

Sheeeit.

No proud to admit this.

Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.
EVERYONE.

I'm thinking the same.

We can all hope/say it will moon in the future but short to mid term trading is as unpredictable as anything.

I don't see the point of drawing a line between tops and bottoms AT A CERTAIN POINT and then extrapolating onwards.

Or a curve, for that matter. Even without shifting points, too many curves can fit a fixed set. An uncountable infinity, actually.

I guess it's just a tool to help figure out the short term.

[Lopumbo]

as BTC failed as a P2P currency the circlejerks proposed to use it a store of value 
fantastic, how long do i have to HODL my fiat until inflation its up 70% of its value?

[Searing]

Well...I will likely DIE with my BTC hoard intact...but if BTC hits $6k, I am annoucing here now I will panic sell like an 8 year old child...all my

non-hoard btc/ltc and probably a good chunk of my LISK ICO coins.....

What? A seasoned old timer, early adopter, pioneer miner like you?

NO WAY!

Try to do that, and we will ask Bob to show you how wrong you were. I hear he's got lots of time on his hands right now...

retired....the alts and mining were to get me to 66 years then take traditonal investements and soc sec as a goal (i can retire now on that but stubborn)

thus, my end strategy...if i have to flush all the alts...and btc hoard is intact to do above my reply, not selling alts and btc at the high will be

'crypto allowed me to retire ...3 years early..bite me!'

but if BTC hits $6k, I am annoucing here now I will panic sell like an 8 year old child...

...and then it'll jump off from $5.9k.

Back to 10K and will be Crying like 7 Years old 

again..will flush the alts and all non-hoard btc at 6k or around to protect my retirement plan of not taking anything till 66 years

will be ugly...but will HODL the BTC


but .....how does it go

needs must, when the devil drives...

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/needs_must_when_the_devil_drives

the BTC hoard MUST be protected at all costs...even if I am the only one with BTC 25 years from now in the Nursing Home..my precious

that does not mean I won't flush the alt coin hoard at BTC hitting 6k let me tell ya! to accomplish above 3 year plan

ugly, ugly...and don't ask me about scrypt-pow mining ...I will just cry....

again, sorry, retired 1/14/18....and karma could not handle me not working....I skunked the works

so how it sits now....with the above 'dubious retirement plans'

[infofront]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/W5wwj74c-Bitcoin-Long-Term-Trend-Analysis-A-near-term-clue-BLX-Update/

See how similar does it look? It is all over GoX again. Bloodbath to $2k incoming. They won't let it shoot up again unless dumb people do panic sells below $5k.

I checked that page, but I don't get the point. It seems to have been written in 2017 and updated.

*Btw whoever made this TA is a fucking genius and a legend.

The statements and predictions are generic, and there are whole orders of magnitude between alternatives. Are you being serious or sarcastic?

I don't know what you're looking at, but it looks to me like he absolutely fucking nailed it:

[yefi]

Last summer majormax said there would be no new ATH for another few years. Bitcoin hit a $20k ATH half a year later.

Have to give you props for doing the research. How soon these pontificators forget their hubris! Perhaps they ought learn an ounce of humility.

[HairyMaclairy]

Here’s my prediction:  the bottom will be in when we hit 75%+ dominance.   Only then we will have flushed the scams, imitators and charlatans. 

[Last of the V8s]

[fabiorem]

I don't know what you're looking at, but it looks to me like he absolutely fucking nailed it:

[Toxic2040]

Good news indeed.

https://investir.lesechos.fr/marches/bitcoin-cryptomonnaies/g20-le-fsb-rejette-les-appels-a-une-regulation-des-cryptomonnaies-1750099.php#

LONDON, March 18 (Reuters) - The Financial Stability Board (FSB), which coordinates financial regulation for the G20 countries, on Sunday rejected calls by several countries for cryptocurrency regulation, such as bitcoin .

The FSB, however, stressed the need for greater international coordination in monitoring these rapidly evolving technologies, which still represent a tiny sector equivalent to less than 1% of global gross domestic product.

"The first assessment of the FSB is that currently, these crypto-assets do not pose a risk to global financial stability," said Mark Carney, president of the FSB, in a letter to finance ministers and governors of central banks, which will meet in Buenos Aires on Monday and Tuesday.

Mark Carney, who will leave his post next year, when he resigns as Governor of the Bank of England, noted that his successor would oversee a regulator more inclined to review existing rules than to set up new ones.

In his letter, he also said that the FSB, which has conducted a series of banking and financial reforms after the 2007-2009 crisis, will focus on the current rules rather than design new ones.

"As the work of the FSB, which aims to fill the fault lines that caused the financial crisis, is nearing its end, the latter will focus more (..) on the implementation and rigorous evaluation of the effects. reforms approved by the G20, "said Mark Carney. (Huw Jones Catherine Mallebay-Cowboy for French Service, edited by Danielle Rouquié)

[fabiorem]

less than 1% of global gross domestic product

See? The potential for growth is huge.

[HairyMaclairy]

Short squeeze. 

Please come back next weekend.

[infofront]

As I was browsing some other tradingview forecasts, I came across at least one bullish scenario that looks/sounds plausible.

Yes, other folks are calling for endless doom, like we're stuck in the ATH 0.00% bear channel forever until $2K. I think we already reversed at $6K, as evidenced by the formations (and lack of retraces) in the rally that followed up to $11,700. Now we've retraced that pump all the way back to the magic 0.705 OTE -0.44% zone, and are primed for the next run up. Could we drop a little further? to the 0.764? more?? sure -- but you're better off dollar cost averaging your buys down here instead of chasing the PERFECT bottom, only to get stuck in the gutter as the rocket leaves the launch pad. So I'm quite happy to have bought $7700, and will buy again $7350 and $6950 -- because going up from here, on the right wing of this harmonic pattern , I'm not going to look back and care that much about a few hundred dollars at the entry point

As for timing - we're finishing this descending wedge , and falling until something kicks the market. And right now the looming "news event" (which often causes the market to stall in anticipation) is the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Argentina on Monday the 19th. It seems that cryptocurrency will be on the agenda.

So just like the senate hearings, where the world waited and held its breath, dumping alllllll the way up to the fateful day only to have nothing but positive news from the hearing itself -- we're still slumping in this wedge . The 19th provides the perfect intersection of rising trendlines , the 0.764 retrace fib, and this selloff, making $7350 my favorite entry point, but holding some reserve bids at $6950 as well, just in case bears try to spook the market by breaking a few trendlines at the last second and stop hunting. All it will take is the slightest whiff of favorable news from the world's finance misters, praising the blockchain or at least NOT banning crypto, to light the rocket.

[Toxic2040]

Short squeeze. 

Please come back next weekend.