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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
No, it's coming later this year - 44 (36.7%)
No, it's coming next year or after - 16 (13.3%)
Total Voters: 120

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25774058 times)
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HairyMaclairy
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March 16, 2018, 10:21:44 PM

So what is a good exit point for the bcash lol pump for the Satoshi vision conference ?

Can Roger pump to 0.2?   Is 0.25 achievable ?

We just missed one and his pumps are getting smaller and smaller. As someone said on reddit BCH performs like a penny stock.

Surely that’s just a pre-pump to clear the stops.  If the best they can do for their signature event is 0.1125 then that’s laughably pathetic.  
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March 16, 2018, 10:37:05 PM


-tera bera

Duration:

Glade - 6 weeks
Glide -  6 months

Beginning:

Glade - 3 year record breaking volume after 70% decline
Glide  - ? Another volume bounce indicator somewhere around 5.5k ?

End

Glade - Attempts to bust past a 100% increase or reach any level that will credibly start a new bull run fizzle out (failing at 11.8 twice, then at 10 on the way down sealed it as over)
Glide -  ? Same as above, trying to get past 10k fails ?
I'm not particularly committed to the price path I drew. I just like the log channel and wanted to illustrate how wrong the original author could be.
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March 16, 2018, 10:55:52 PM
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March 16, 2018, 11:03:42 PM


I admit that it can be a bit of a pain in the ass to attempt to find your comfort zone, and even to experience levels of temptation emotion to deviate.  Furthermore, the market can play out in ways that are a bit beyond expectations and new preparations need to take place to ensure that you remain prepared for either price direction.  

In the last month, I made a couple decently-sized tweaks, and I designed each of my tweaks in order to feel more comfortable for either direction rather than attempting to increase my profits.  And, in November/December, I had to make a couple of decently-sized tweaks, too, because the price was performing more bullishly than anticipated.

That's it. It's about being comfortable. As in almost any tight game, upping the worst case outcome requires worsening the best case. And that's what I'm doing right now.

Quote
At some point in the near future, we are going to have to refer to the d_eddie ladder-scalping method... a form of tailoring, tweaking and adjusting particular to bitcoinlandia...   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Hehe, it would be nice, wouldn't it? However, I'm too much of a newbie at trading - and what's more, I'm kind of ignoring on purpose the intricacies of proper TA. That's why, if I came up with something like this, it must be already a well-known technique, and I'm quite confident it already has a name. If I knew its name, I could look it up and learn about possible pitfalls.
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March 16, 2018, 11:07:12 PM


-tera bera

Duration:

Glade - 6 weeks
Glide -  6 months

Beginning:

Glade - 3 year record breaking volume after 70% decline
Glide  - ? Another volume bounce indicator somewhere around 5.5k ?

End

Glade - Attempts to bust past a 100% increase or reach any level that will credibly start a new bull run fizzle out (failing at 11.8 twice, then at 10 on the way down sealed it as over)
Glide -  ? Same as above, trying to get past 10k fails ?
I'm not particularly committed to the price path I drew. I just like the log channel and wanted to illustrate how wrong the original author could be.

A voice of reason. There are a quite a number of projection charts that can be drawn from the same data. Extrapolation is never uniquely determined. I have no idea how much the different charts can differ qualitatively, but quantitatively there is quite a bit of possible variation, as you showed.

Another option would be sqrt(x) rather than log channel, à la masterluc's friend.
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March 16, 2018, 11:08:42 PM
Last edit: March 16, 2018, 11:25:41 PM by Biodom
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This's interesting. We're no-where near the dotcom bubble yet in terms of market-cap:



I generally agree with this. The idea that it's the end of a great bubble conflicts with the capitalization of previous great bubbles. The South Sea Bubble went to $4tn in real terms and that was confined to a single country (albeit a world power then).

As Tera points out, we should include all crypto in the calculation, but at ~$850B the peak is still rather underwhelming as the finale of a global mania.

The quoted graph is somewhat strange as it suggests above $1 tril in internet stocks in 1995 or something close.
As far as I remember, Yahoo only started trading in 1996, although I could be wrong.
AMZN 1997, Ebay 1998. If they suggest that 1995 internet companies were Intel, MSFT and CSCO, than it is clearly a stretch.
Besides, I read somewhere else that "pure" Internet peaked at just 3 tril in 2000.

I agree with the overall conclusion that 850bil (at the peak) or 320-330 bil now, 18-20 years after the internet 'bubble", feels like an awfully small number.

Besides, MSM keeps talking about crypto bubble. They did no such thing during 1998-2000. Instead, it was always rah rah.
I remember some B2B companies that were nothing, but a reverse FUD from Mary Meeker, etc. They all pretty much zeroed.
VERT, lol, fun memories.
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March 16, 2018, 11:33:14 PM
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We are managing to stay out of the Swamps of Anger.  



Although the price line seems to have changed Dark Forest to Dank Forest.
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March 16, 2018, 11:36:42 PM

So we going to get one of those weekend pumps instead of dump?

Exactly my hunch. I got it while following the price more closely than usual, scalping my short up. I'm gonna have a hard weekend for sure :-)

Quote

This sounds like bullshit. It can't be true. Such a business model leaks too much profit if the underlying cryptocurrency appreciates.
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March 16, 2018, 11:41:14 PM

Hehe, it would be nice, wouldn't it? However, I'm too much of a newbie at trading - and what's more, I'm kind of ignoring on purpose the intricacies of proper TA. That's why, if I came up with something like this, it must be already a well-known technique, and I'm quite confident it already has a name. If I knew its name, I could look it up and learn about possible pitfalls.
Could you recap what you're up to?
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March 16, 2018, 11:47:34 PM
Last edit: March 17, 2018, 12:03:44 AM by marcus_of_augustus
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the Sumerians invented writing. and the same folks in the same area and the same time also invented money. both inventions together made it possible for the first time in history that lots of people -that did not know each other personally- were able to cooperate to form large kingdoms, armies, large scale tax collection, religions, etc. before the Sumerians had invented money and letters/writing people only cooperated with the 100-150 people they personally knew.

I think this proposition is still in contention amongst scholars of monetary history in prehistoric times, so to speak. Since in the times of prehistory we only have proto-writings then we rely only on evidential artifacts of what society was like and what tools that had been invented by then. The Sumerian writings date to around 3,000 BCE but we have the much much older bulla seals used as early as 8,000 BCE. Bullae seals are really the first form of writing, albeit in a pre-hieroglyphic form.

It's my theory that the evolution of bullae to inscribed tablets, for more efficient keeping of ledgers, was actually the precursor to writing. Written accounts, i.e. ledger money, was the necessity that invented writing (recording objects and numbers as storage and transfer of value), eventually giving rise to the written word that was then used more broadly for creative measures and historical recordings which came along afterwards as a subsequent invention.

tl;dr the invention of money first as Bullae and then as written ledgers had necessarily invented a form of the written word before the Sumerians ... not writing was invented and then written ledgers came along afterwards.
JayJuanGee
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March 16, 2018, 11:51:57 PM


I admit that it can be a bit of a pain in the ass to attempt to find your comfort zone, and even to experience levels of temptation emotion to deviate.  Furthermore, the market can play out in ways that are a bit beyond expectations and new preparations need to take place to ensure that you remain prepared for either price direction.  

In the last month, I made a couple decently-sized tweaks, and I designed each of my tweaks in order to feel more comfortable for either direction rather than attempting to increase my profits.  And, in November/December, I had to make a couple of decently-sized tweaks, too, because the price was performing more bullishly than anticipated.

That's it. It's about being comfortable. As in almost any tight game, upping the worst case outcome requires worsening the best case. And that's what I'm doing right now.

I believe that I understand what you are saying here.

I might characterize what I do a little bit differently, and that is that I structure buys and sells in order to attempt to profit from what are the most likely scenarios, so even though I am prepared for the more extreme scenarios, those more extreme scenarios are not the center of my planning.

Further, as more extreme scenarios begin to play out (which does happen in bitcoin from time to time), then I have to adjust my earlier plan to account for the happening of the more extreme scenario.  To me, it sounds like you are in the middle of doing this second thing... you are adjusting your previous plan in order to become more comfortable within  a new scenario that is currently playing out, and as the BTC price goes up and down and up and down, your plan is likely going to cause you to become more and more comfortable because the price is going to come to you in one direction or another within your new plan, which does not get you out of a likely necessity of having to tweak again later down the road in order to become more comfortable again.

Quote
At some point in the near future, we are going to have to refer to the d_eddie ladder-scalping method... a form of tailoring, tweaking and adjusting particular to bitcoinlandia...   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Hehe, it would be nice, wouldn't it? However, I'm too much of a newbie at trading - and what's more, I'm kind of ignoring on purpose the intricacies of proper TA. That's why, if I came up with something like this, it must be already a well-known technique, and I'm quite confident it already has a name. If I knew its name, I could look it up and learn about possible pitfalls.

I think that the longer that you engage in this process and reflect upon it by writing it out or whatever, the more likely that you are going to develop some plans that you can call your own - even if others happen to engage in some variation of such practices... and maybe instead of calling it the d_eddie scalping-ladder method, you may come up with a new and more daring method that you decide to name as the d_eddie avoidance of suicide method..    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Regarding TA, fuck it!!!   or at least take TA with a BIG ASS grain of salt, and use which portions you believe might be helpful on the margins rather than centering your approach around such seeming nonsense.
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March 16, 2018, 11:52:02 PM

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually
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March 16, 2018, 11:54:57 PM

the Sumerians invented writing. and the same folks in the same area and the same time also invented money. both inventions together made it possible for the first time in history that lots of people -that did not know each other personally- were able to cooperate to form large kingdoms, armies, large scale tax collection, religions, etc. before the Sumerians had invented money and letters/writing people only cooperated with the 100-150 people they personally knew.

I think this proposition is still in contention amongst scholars of monetary history in prehistoric times, so to speak. Since in the times of prehistory we only have proto-writings then we rely only on evidential artifacts of what society was like and what tools that had been invented by then. The Sumerian writings date to to around 3,000 BCE but we have the much much older bulla seals used as early as 8,000 BCE. Bullae seals are really the first form of writing, albeit in a pre-hieroglyphic form.

It's my theory that the evolution of bullae to inscribed tablets, for more efficient keeping of ledgers, was actually the precursor to writing. Written accounts, i.e. ledger money, was the necessity that invented writing (recording objects and numbers for accounts), eventually giving rise to the written word that was used more broadly for creative measures and historical recordings (storage and transfer of value) came along afterwards as a subsequent invention.

tl;dr the invention of money first as Bullae and then as written ledgers had necessarily invented a form of the written word before the Sumerians ... not writing was invented and then written ledgers came along afterwards.
Somewhat related is Beautyon's characterisation of Bitcoin as text https://hackernoon.com/why-america-cant-regulate-bitcoin-8c77cee8d794
HairyMaclairy
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March 16, 2018, 11:55:12 PM

So we going to get one of those weekend pumps instead of dump?

Exactly my hunch. I got it while following the price more closely than usual, scalping my short up. I'm gonna have a hard weekend for sure :-)

Quote

This sounds like bullshit. It can't be true. Such a business model leaks too much profit if the underlying cryptocurrency appreciates.

I assume both principal and interest is payable in BTC.
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March 16, 2018, 11:55:56 PM

We are managing to stay out of the Swamps of Anger.  



Although the price line seems to have changed Dark Forest to Dank Forest.
Where exactly is the dungeon of capitulation? Negative prices?
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March 16, 2018, 11:56:10 PM

Satoshi vision conference ?

Is there any evidence AT ALL that satoshi's vision was to "scale" bitcoin by cramming more and more transactions into blocks until the point where full node operators need to open a data center and purchase a T1 line? Where the hell does ver get this crap about this being "satoshi's vision"?
...that has nothing to do with the number of transactions.
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March 17, 2018, 12:02:11 AM
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We are managing to stay out of the Swamps of Anger.  



Although the price line seems to have changed Dark Forest to Dank Forest.
Where exactly is the dungeon of capitulation? Negative prices?

It’s the Wall Observer $1,000 Party.  It’s being held at a time share resort in Milwaukee.  We are all going to drink Pabst Blue Ribbon and listen to a lecture on physical silver by Roach. 
Anon136
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March 17, 2018, 12:02:55 AM

Satoshi vision conference ?

Is there any evidence AT ALL that satoshi's vision was to "scale" bitcoin by cramming more and more transactions into blocks until the point where full node operators need to open a data center and purchase a T1 line? Where the hell does ver get this crap about this being "satoshi's vision"?
...that has nothing to do with the number of transactions.

Can you be more specific? What has nothing to do with the number of transactions?
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March 17, 2018, 12:03:49 AM

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.
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March 17, 2018, 12:04:41 AM

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

"This is the ultimate thing that you hear about when you have a bubble, when the guy shining your shoes tells you what stock to buy," the Visa executive said.

This quote sums up the mentality of these guys
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