Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Alright, so I have been to the big free museum in Wellington, to the harbor where every single boat is behind a locked gate, and plan to go to the night market today (it closes at 11 pm, not actually a "night" market).

Is there anything else I absolutely have to see or do before I descend into a two day drinking binge?

[bluebits]

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

"This is the ultimate thing that you hear about when you have a bubble, when the guy shining your shoes tells you what stock to buy," the Visa executive said.

This quote sums up the mentality of these guys

Their mentality is spot-on. You can't convince these people to load in, they have to do if for themselves at the absolute peak. Almost everything said by these big bankers is trivially true, I think this explains the reactions from Dimon etc when BTC is brought up, it is a form of bemusement on their part that people cannot see something so obvious.

[JayJuanGee]

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.

Last time we heard from him he was mumbling something about exiting in stages (dollar cost averaging).

Hope he is ok and didn't sell more than enough to have some peace of mind and restored confidence in his hodling abilities.

Exactly.. we should refer to that strategy of "mumbling" because such a strategy is dumb for exiting on the way down, and I already as much responded to that nonsensical assertion.  

So, hopefully Rosewater (I am not convinced that BMB and Rosewater are the same peeps) has not been following such a dumb plan in the way that he had outlined it.

[Ibian]

Alright, so I have been to the big free museum in Wellington, to the harbor where every single boat is behind a locked gate, and plan to go to the night market today (it closes at 11 pm, not actually a "night" market).

Is there anything else I absolutely have to see or do before I descend into a two day drinking binge?

... maybe take a ride on the cable-car (funicular) from Lampton Quay and then hit the untold craft brew pubs on or just off Cuba St./Courtney Place area (which fits nicely with your binge-drinking plan).

I ride big metal tubes at appreciable fractions of the speed of sound way high up in the air on a regular basis. So, meh. Thanks for the suggestion all the same tho.

[bitserve]

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.

Last time we heard from him he was mumbling something about exiting in stages (dollar cost averaging).

Hope he is ok and didn't sell more than enough to have some peace of mind and restored confidence in his hodling abilities.

Exactly.. we should refer to that strategy of "mumbling" because such a strategy is dumb for exiting on the way down, and I already as much responded to that nonsensical assertion.  

So, hopefully he has not been following such a dumb plan in the way that he had outlined it.

Well, I specifically told him my opinion that dollar cost averaging is in fact also a good idea for exiting positions... when you don't know if the price is going to pump or dump next.

Of course if you knew it was going to dump, then go all out inmediatelly, and if it is gonna pump, go all in.... but who really knows that for sure??

[HairyMaclairy]

Alright, so I have been to the big free museum in Wellington, to the harbor where every single boat is behind a locked gate, and plan to go to the night market today (it closes at 11 pm, not actually a "night" market).

Is there anything else I absolutely have to see or do before I descend into a two day drinking binge?

... maybe take a ride on the cable-car (funicular) from Lampton Quay and then hit the untold craft brew pubs on or just off Cuba St./Courtney Place area (which fits nicely with your binge-drinking plan).

I ride big metal tubes at appreciable fractions of the speed of sound way high up in the air on a regular basis. So, meh. Thanks for the suggestion all the same tho.

Need to get out of the city into the wilderness. Get a fly fishing guide if that is your thing, rent a big game fishing charter for marlin or go hiking in the Southern Alps.  You sound like you might like going pigging, just some dogs and a knife to go boar hunting.

Or go to the Marlborough and do the vineyards. Or go surfing at Raglan and get your ass kicked by the Southern rollers.  Lots to do just not in Wellington itself.

[JayJuanGee]

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.

Last time we heard from him he was mumbling something about exiting in stages (dollar cost averaging).

Hope he is ok and didn't sell more than enough to have some peace of mind and restored confidence in his hodling abilities.

Exactly.. we should refer to that strategy of "mumbling" because such a strategy is dumb for exiting on the way down, and I already as much responded to that nonsensical assertion.  

So, hopefully he has not been following such a dumb plan in the way that he had outlined it.

Well, I specifically told him my opinion that dollar cost averaging is in fact also a good idea for exiting positions... when you don't know if the price is going to pump or dump next.

Of course if you knew it was going to dump, then go all out inmediatelly, and if it is gonna pump, go all in.... but who really knows that for sure??

Below is a copy of my earlier attempt at a response to the matter (although my nested response is directed at birr, it is also intended for Rosewater, and I am not sure if he read it), and in essence I am saying that reverse dollar cost averaging is stupid.

Sure you can sell a chunk of BTC if you are nervous about whatever situation you have gotten yourself into, but you need to go back to the strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up because it does not work to attempt dollar cost averaging the other way around... and sure, sometimes when in doubt an alternative plan (especially in BTC) would just be to HODLCRAEFULly through the situation.

I'm about ready to capitulate myself. Is it best to dollars cost average your way out as well?
PS. I have no complaints, have done well.

Consider that in dollar cost averaging, you convert dollars at a steady rate into another asset.  It works, because when the asset is expensive, your dollars buy less of it, and when the asset is cheap your dollars buy more of it.  That's exactly how you want to go about buying something.
Now consider selling an asset.  If you extract dollars at a steady rate from your store of the asset, it means that when the asset is expensive, you sell less of it, and when the asset is cheap you sell more of it.  That is most definitely not how you want to do it.
Instead, to wind down your position in an asset, you should sell that asset at a steady rate; e.g., sell the same amount of bitcoin every month.
By doing it that way, you are getting more dollars when bitcoin is expensive, and less dollars when bitcoin is cheap.
Another way to think about it is this:  when you acquire an asset using dollar cost averaging, in effect you're selling dollars, and by selling those dollars at a steady rate you get the best results.  Winding down an asset's position is the mirror image that process.  You're selling bitcoin, and selling those bitcoins at a steady rate denominated in bitcoin (not dollars) gives the best results.

@birr... The first part of your discussion of dollar cost averaging lends some insight to the practice because you are indicating that there is something wrong with employing an opposite strategy... however, then your suggestion largely devolves into a kind of recommendation of a reverse dollar cost average strategy.

NO matter if you are in a BTC accumulation stage, or a maintenance stage or a liquidation stage, your strategy should be to attempt to sell BTC on the way up and to buy BTC on the way down.  Of course the more you are on one spectrum or another remains a personal choice but it also effects how you may employ the strategy.  So for example, if you are in a BTC accumulation stage you might buy more on dips and perhaps sell less on rises because your goal is accumulation, but that should not cause you to sell on the way down or buy on the way up.

Usually, if some one who is employing a sell on the way up and buy on the way down is panicking because they screwed up and did not sell enough, so the strategy probably would be to attempt to make up for the screw up by selling a decent sized chunk and then returning to the strategy of buying if the price goes down with the proceeds that were generated from the sale.

Continuing to sell on the way down or creating a plan that continues to sell on the way down is not a good strategy nor is it equally good as buying on the way down... and perhaps making and emergency sell because of a screw up and then maybe even going back to HODL, if not feeling comfortable enough to buying on the way down.

[cAPSLOCK]

We are managing to stay out of the Swamps of Anger.  



Although the price line seems to have changed Dark Forest to Dank Forest.

Where exactly is the dungeon of capitulation? Negative prices?

Damnit if you'll just take this bitcoin off me I'll give you a quarter of a million dollars!

[d_eddie]

Hehe, it would be nice, wouldn't it? However, I'm too much of a newbie at trading - and what's more, I'm kind of ignoring on purpose the intricacies of proper TA. That's why, if I came up with something like this, it must be already a well-known technique, and I'm quite confident it already has a name. If I knew its name, I could look it up and learn about possible pitfalls.

Could you recap what you're up to?

I used the last dip to lighten my safety short and profit a bit. The dip was welcome, because my short entry point was drifting towards unprofitability as the price raised.

Now I'm waiting to rebuild the missing part a bit at a time, scalping the small waves as we get back to where we were, around 8.5-8.6k. When will it be? I don't know, of course. That's the unnerving nursing/babysitting part.

My ultimate goal is having a short that tracks the current price, ideally an inch higher up from it (wishful thinking, and impossible on maxima. I know).

When I'm set or near-set, let them moon it - I'll drop it when the pain exceeds my threshold. Let them swamp it - I'll get richer than I would have been without my safety short.

[El duderino_]

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UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK

[d_eddie]

So we going to get one of those weekend pumps instead of dump?

Exactly my hunch. I got it while following the price more closely than usual, scalping my short up. I'm gonna have a hard weekend for sure :-)

Edit:  Genesis Capital has lent over $100 million in crypto to bears.

https://amp.businessinsider.com/a-bitcoin-trading-firm-just-opened-up-a-lending-business-and-its-going-gangbusters-2018-3?__twitter_impression=true

This sounds like bullshit. It can't be true. Such a business model leaks too much profit if the underlying cryptocurrency appreciates.

I assume both principal and interest is payable in BTC.

The way I read it, the loan is denominated in USD. If so, it's impossible to claim the same BTC amount. Or did I get it wrong? I'm stressed out by my safe trading binge.

[JayJuanGee]

Hehe, it would be nice, wouldn't it? However, I'm too much of a newbie at trading - and what's more, I'm kind of ignoring on purpose the intricacies of proper TA. That's why, if I came up with something like this, it must be already a well-known technique, and I'm quite confident it already has a name. If I knew its name, I could look it up and learn about possible pitfalls.

Could you recap what you're up to?

I used the last dip to lighten my safety short and profit a bit. The dip was welcome, because my short entry point was drifting towards unprofitability as the price raised.

Now I'm waiting to rebuild the missing part a bit at a time, scalping the small waves as we get back to where we were, around 8.5-8.6k. When will it be? I don't know, of course. That's the unnerving nursing/babysitting part.

My ultimate goal is having a short that tracks the current price, ideally an inch higher up from it (wishful thinking, and impossible on maxima. I know).

When I'm set or near-set, let them moon it - I'll drop it when the pain exceeds my threshold. Let them swamp it - I'll get richer than I were without my safety short.

Certainly, one thing that you are attempting that is quite different from me (and jbreher I believe - and quite a few quys and perhaps gal are leery of such) is that you are incorporating margin dynamics into your plays that make them more complicated.  Therefore, if you are able to describe systematic ways to employ margin, then you will be able to contribute to the space in your own unique ways. 

By the way, I have concluded that in bitcoin it can be very very very profitable merely playing with strategies that involve straight trading and no margins, so therefore margin trading is not necessary in order to get very rich from bitcoin.  It would take quite a bit to convince me to employ margin trading or that I would acknowledge that such is necessary - however, if you are able to present clear and simple techniques that are easily understandable, then I for one might be willing to attempt your strategy, if it makes sense to me and seems that there is a way that I can use it to make myself feel more comfortable (rather than less comfortable because of such employment of it).

[bitserve]

Below is a copy of my earlier attempt at a response to the matter (although my nested response is directed at birr, it is also intended for Rosewater, and I am not sure if he read it), and in essence I am saying that reverse dollar cost averaging is stupid.

Sure you can sell a chunk of BTC if you are nervous about whatever situation you have gotten yourself into, but you need to go back to the strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up because it does not work to attempt dollar cost averaging the other way around... and sure, sometimes when in doubt an alternative plan (especially in BTC) would just be to HODLCRAEFULly through the situation.

But what you are arguing there is that it is basically a wrong idea to exit low. Which we all agree. But he was especifically asking if it was better to exit (now) in a single trade or to dollar cost average the exit. The intention to exit was thus a premise in his question.

As such, it is better to do it averaging the exit for exactly the same reasons it is good to average the entry. I also suggested an alternative way which is scalping the volatility for liquidity (you basically assume downtrend and act accordingly in the staggered trades using the volatility to get an additional profit ie: sell double on each daily pump and buy half on each daily dip). But it all depends on the deadline someone has to complete the full exit.

[HairyMaclairy]

So we going to get one of those weekend pumps instead of dump?

Exactly my hunch. I got it while following the price more closely than usual, scalping my short up. I'm gonna have a hard weekend for sure :-)

Edit:  Genesis Capital has lent over $100 million in crypto to bears.

https://amp.businessinsider.com/a-bitcoin-trading-firm-just-opened-up-a-lending-business-and-its-going-gangbusters-2018-3?__twitter_impression=true

This sounds like bullshit. It can't be true. Such a business model leaks too much profit if the underlying cryptocurrency appreciates.

I assume both principal and interest is payable in BTC.

The way I read it, the loan is denominated in USD. If so, it's impossible to claim the same BTC amount. Or did I get it wrong? I'm stressed out by my safe trading binge.

Nah it’s denominated in BTC. 

This would mean they borrow some amount in bitcoin, sell it, and then repay in bitcoin (at whatever price) whenever the loan comes due."

[d_eddie]

Woops, can't even read anymore. Thanks for setting me straight.

[d_eddie]

+500 dollars erased in matter of minutes

That's when a short on the side turns into a valuable asset.

[HairyMaclairy]

Oopsie

[JayJuanGee]

Below is a copy of my earlier attempt at a response to the matter (although my nested response is directed at birr, it is also intended for Rosewater, and I am not sure if he read it), and in essence I am saying that reverse dollar cost averaging is stupid.

Sure you can sell a chunk of BTC if you are nervous about whatever situation you have gotten yourself into, but you need to go back to the strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up because it does not work to attempt dollar cost averaging the other way around... and sure, sometimes when in doubt an alternative plan (especially in BTC) would just be to HODLCRAEFULly through the situation.

But what you are arguing there is that it is basically a wrong idea to exit low. Which we all agree. But he was especifically asking if it was better to exit (now) in a single trade or to dollar cost average the exit. The intention to exit was thus a premise in his question.

Here is one time that I will concede (it does not happen very often) that the wordiness of my response may have caused a loss of the thrust of what I was attempting to say.

Pretty much I was attempting to say that if you believe that you have fucked up, and you want to feel comfortable because you believe the price is going to go down, then you should figure out a way to sell a chunk that will cause you to become more comfortable, and then continue with a strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up (and that would not be dollar cost average selling on the way down because that makes little fucking sense in light of the more grande principle that calls for buying on the way down and selling on the way up).

I understand the premise and intention of his question, and I think that the strategy goes against the overall principle that I would be advocating.

Of course, we are kind of mixing two principles here, because dollar cost averaging does not really have anything to do with price, and dollar cost averaging is a time thing... so following a pure dollar cost averaging strategy would be to just buy or sell an exact amount (perhaps once a week) no matter what the price was at that time, and I am not opposed to that kind of strategy; however, the way that Rosewater was using the term, he seem to be referring to selling an incremental amount on the way down (irrespective of time), and just to be clear and repetitive, I think that is a stupid and even a strategy that is contrary to MORE GRAND principles to buy on the way down and sell on the way up.   

As such, it is better to do it averaging the exit for exactly the same reasons it is good to average the entry.

For reasons already outlined above, I don't think so.

I also suggested an alternative way which is scalping the volatility for liquidity (you basically assume downtrend and act accordingly in the staggered trades using the volatility to get an additional profit ie: sell double on each daily pump and buy half on each daily dip). But it all depends on the deadline someone has to complete the full exit.

Actually, you are describing a little bit different of a principle, and I cannot really disagree with this kind of mitigation/compromise strategy because you can tailor such an approach to make the downside less painful than it might otherwise be, and thereby cause you better downside protections because you are attempting to ensure that you are not selling at the absolute bottom... so I agree with that kind of attempt at mitigating damages to the best of your ability (that kind of is hoping that the bottom is close to being in).

[xhomerx10]

Satoshi vision conference ?

Is there any evidence AT ALL that satoshi's vision was to "scale" bitcoin by cramming more and more transactions into blocks until the point where full node operators need to open a data center and purchase a T1 line? Where the hell does ver get this crap about this being "satoshi's vision"?

...that has nothing to do with the number of transactions.

Can you be more specific? What has nothing to do with the number of transactions?

The number of transactions has nothing to do with the choice to build a data center.

ooooookkkkkk. You are off on a different planet buddy.

Open source. We know how it works. Have known from the start.

You are the one making an assertion here. In what way does the number of transactions force miners into data centers?

  It might help this discussion to note that full node ≠ miner

[d_eddie]

Now I feel as though there will be IRS agents infiltrating our party.  I suggest we have to sign a message with our posted addresses to gain entry.  Maybe r0ach can guard the door to keep the riff raff out

And worse than the IRS, possibly. It will be a meetup of very rich peeps, remember: one million dollars will be just 10 BTC.

I think the details (place, time, reservations) should only be discussed in a private board. Invitation-only private. And yes, it would be appropriate to have some state of the art crypto verification at the door - like signing a message with the right key. No joke.