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Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 4 (2.9%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.9%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.7%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (2.2%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.9%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 26 (18.8%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 23 (16.7%)
$10,500-10,999 - 12 (8.7%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 11 (8%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 9 (6.5%)
>$12,000 - 30 (21.7%)
>$20,000 - 11 (8%)
Total Voters: 138

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21240010 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (66 posts by 16 users deleted.)
d_eddie
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March 17, 2018, 12:03:49 AM

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.
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fragout
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March 17, 2018, 12:04:41 AM

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

"This is the ultimate thing that you hear about when you have a bubble, when the guy shining your shoes tells you what stock to buy," the Visa executive said.

This quote sums up the mentality of these guys
Ibian
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March 17, 2018, 12:08:21 AM

We are managing to stay out of the Swamps of Anger.  



Although the price line seems to have changed Dark Forest to Dank Forest.
Where exactly is the dungeon of capitulation? Negative prices?
It begins somewhere between 7500 and 5000. Which would be a lovely problem to have for a lot of us.
Ibian
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March 17, 2018, 12:09:48 AM

Satoshi vision conference ?

Is there any evidence AT ALL that satoshi's vision was to "scale" bitcoin by cramming more and more transactions into blocks until the point where full node operators need to open a data center and purchase a T1 line? Where the hell does ver get this crap about this being "satoshi's vision"?
...that has nothing to do with the number of transactions.

Can you be more specific? What has nothing to do with the number of transactions?
The number of transactions has nothing to do with the choice to build a data center.
JayJuanGee
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March 17, 2018, 12:10:21 AM

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

Visa is not going to go down that easy and without a fight, so they are likely going to have to play dirty - and likely also be forced to lower their fees, too.... 
Ibian
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March 17, 2018, 12:10:55 AM

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

"This is the ultimate thing that you hear about when you have a bubble, when the guy shining your shoes tells you what stock to buy," the Visa executive said.

This quote sums up the mentality of these guys
That line is not wrong, seen in isolation, to be fair. It's just that not everything is a bubble.
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March 17, 2018, 12:10:59 AM

Satoshi vision conference ?

Is there any evidence AT ALL that satoshi's vision was to "scale" bitcoin by cramming more and more transactions into blocks until the point where full node operators need to open a data center and purchase a T1 line? Where the hell does ver get this crap about this being "satoshi's vision"?
...that has nothing to do with the number of transactions.

Can you be more specific? What has nothing to do with the number of transactions?
The number of transactions has nothing to do with the choice to build a data center.

ooooookkkkkk. You are off on a different planet buddy.
Ibian
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March 17, 2018, 12:12:28 AM

Satoshi vision conference ?

Is there any evidence AT ALL that satoshi's vision was to "scale" bitcoin by cramming more and more transactions into blocks until the point where full node operators need to open a data center and purchase a T1 line? Where the hell does ver get this crap about this being "satoshi's vision"?
...that has nothing to do with the number of transactions.

Can you be more specific? What has nothing to do with the number of transactions?
The number of transactions has nothing to do with the choice to build a data center.

ooooookkkkkk. You are off on a different planet buddy.
Open source. We know how it works. Have known from the start.

You are the one making an assertion here. In what way does the number of transactions force miners into data centers?
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March 17, 2018, 12:13:45 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

Visa is not going to go down that easy and without a fight, so they are likely going to have to play dirty - and likely also be forced to lower their fees, too....  

highlighted...thereby becoming a great short, perhaps.
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March 17, 2018, 12:17:27 AM

Satoshi vision conference ?

Is there any evidence AT ALL that satoshi's vision was to "scale" bitcoin by cramming more and more transactions into blocks until the point where full node operators need to open a data center and purchase a T1 line? Where the hell does ver get this crap about this being "satoshi's vision"?
...that has nothing to do with the number of transactions.

Can you be more specific? What has nothing to do with the number of transactions?
The number of transactions has nothing to do with the choice to build a data center.

ooooookkkkkk. You are off on a different planet buddy.
Open source. We know how it works. Have known from the start.

You are the one making an assertion here. In what way does the number of transactions force miners into data centers?

Doesn't legendary mean anything? You understand that transactions are made of data right? Processing more of them requires more bandwidth than processing less of them, right? Why am I having this ridiculous conversation? Are you high?
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March 17, 2018, 12:24:02 AM

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.

Last time we heard from him he was mumbling something about exiting in stages (dollar cost averaging).

Hope he is ok and didn't sell more than enough to have some peace of mind and restored confidence in his hodling abilities.
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March 17, 2018, 12:27:05 AM

We are managing to stay out of the Swamps of Anger.  



Although the price line seems to have changed Dark Forest to Dank Forest.
Where exactly is the dungeon of capitulation? Negative prices?
It begins somewhere between 7500 and 5000. Which would be a lovely problem to have for a lot of us.


If we have been into bitcoin for any period of time, then I would not characterize a drop between $7500 and $5k as any kind of a "lovely" problem, even though it may be a manageable problem in which we could make lemonade out of lemons.

Furthermore, if you have been in the BTC space for any kind of significant period of time, even if you may be decently prepared for further downwards price movements, you have had plenty of opportunities to accumulate bitcoin at lower prices, so there really does not seem to be any "lovely" reason(s) to experience further downward price movements, except merely some of the additional purging of weak hands that is likely to occur and also the possibilities of some of the additional purging of some of these alt coin and scam ICO projects that would also be likely to occur with further downwards price plays.
Ibian
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March 17, 2018, 12:28:54 AM

Doesn't legendary mean anything?
Good fucking question.
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March 17, 2018, 12:32:42 AM

Alright, so I have been to the big free museum in Wellington, to the harbor where every single boat is behind a locked gate, and plan to go to the night market today (it closes at 11 pm, not actually a "night" market).

Is there anything else I absolutely have to see or do before I descend into a two day drinking binge?
bluebits
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March 17, 2018, 12:33:53 AM

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

"This is the ultimate thing that you hear about when you have a bubble, when the guy shining your shoes tells you what stock to buy," the Visa executive said.

This quote sums up the mentality of these guys

Their mentality is spot-on. You can't convince these people to load in, they have to do if for themselves at the absolute peak. Almost everything said by these big bankers is trivially true, I think this explains the reactions from Dimon etc when BTC is brought up, it is a form of bemusement on their part that people cannot see something so obvious.
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March 17, 2018, 12:38:23 AM

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.

Last time we heard from him he was mumbling something about exiting in stages (dollar cost averaging).

Hope he is ok and didn't sell more than enough to have some peace of mind and restored confidence in his hodling abilities.

Exactly.. we should refer to that strategy of "mumbling" because such a strategy is dumb for exiting on the way down, and I already as much responded to that nonsensical assertion.  

So, hopefully Rosewater (I am not convinced that BMB and Rosewater are the same peeps) has not been following such a dumb plan in the way that he had outlined it.
Ibian
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March 17, 2018, 12:44:53 AM

Alright, so I have been to the big free museum in Wellington, to the harbor where every single boat is behind a locked gate, and plan to go to the night market today (it closes at 11 pm, not actually a "night" market).

Is there anything else I absolutely have to see or do before I descend into a two day drinking binge?

... maybe take a ride on the cable-car (funicular) from Lampton Quay and then hit the untold craft brew pubs on or just off Cuba St./Courtney Place area (which fits nicely with your binge-drinking plan).
I ride big metal tubes at appreciable fractions of the speed of sound way high up in the air on a regular basis. So, meh. Thanks for the suggestion all the same tho.
bitserve
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March 17, 2018, 12:46:57 AM

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.

Last time we heard from him he was mumbling something about exiting in stages (dollar cost averaging).

Hope he is ok and didn't sell more than enough to have some peace of mind and restored confidence in his hodling abilities.

Exactly.. we should refer to that strategy of "mumbling" because such a strategy is dumb for exiting on the way down, and I already as much responded to that nonsensical assertion.  

So, hopefully he has not been following such a dumb plan in the way that he had outlined it.

Well, I specifically told him my opinion that dollar cost averaging is in fact also a good idea for exiting positions... when you don't know if the price is going to pump or dump next.

Of course if you knew it was going to dump, then go all out inmediatelly, and if it is gonna pump, go all in.... but who really knows that for sure??
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March 17, 2018, 12:56:43 AM

Alright, so I have been to the big free museum in Wellington, to the harbor where every single boat is behind a locked gate, and plan to go to the night market today (it closes at 11 pm, not actually a "night" market).

Is there anything else I absolutely have to see or do before I descend into a two day drinking binge?

... maybe take a ride on the cable-car (funicular) from Lampton Quay and then hit the untold craft brew pubs on or just off Cuba St./Courtney Place area (which fits nicely with your binge-drinking plan).
I ride big metal tubes at appreciable fractions of the speed of sound way high up in the air on a regular basis. So, meh. Thanks for the suggestion all the same tho.

Need to get out of the city into the wilderness. Get a fly fishing guide if that is your thing, rent a big game fishing charter for marlin or go hiking in the Southern Alps.  You sound like you might like going pigging, just some dogs and a knife to go boar hunting.

Or go to the Marlborough and do the vineyards. Or go surfing at Raglan and get your ass kicked by the Southern rollers.  Lots to do just not in Wellington itself.
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March 17, 2018, 01:08:27 AM
Merited by PoolMinor (2)

A 200-250$ dip down, almost instant. We won't see BMB/Rosewater for some time, I'm afraid.

Last time we heard from him he was mumbling something about exiting in stages (dollar cost averaging).

Hope he is ok and didn't sell more than enough to have some peace of mind and restored confidence in his hodling abilities.

Exactly.. we should refer to that strategy of "mumbling" because such a strategy is dumb for exiting on the way down, and I already as much responded to that nonsensical assertion.  

So, hopefully he has not been following such a dumb plan in the way that he had outlined it.

Well, I specifically told him my opinion that dollar cost averaging is in fact also a good idea for exiting positions... when you don't know if the price is going to pump or dump next.

Of course if you knew it was going to dump, then go all out inmediatelly, and if it is gonna pump, go all in.... but who really knows that for sure??


Below is a copy of my earlier attempt at a response to the matter (although my nested response is directed at birr, it is also intended for Rosewater, and I am not sure if he read it), and in essence I am saying that reverse dollar cost averaging is stupid.

Sure you can sell a chunk of BTC if you are nervous about whatever situation you have gotten yourself into, but you need to go back to the strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up because it does not work to attempt dollar cost averaging the other way around... and sure, sometimes when in doubt an alternative plan (especially in BTC) would just be to HODLCRAEFULly through the situation.



I'm about ready to capitulate myself. Is it best to dollars cost average your way out as well?
PS. I have no complaints, have done well.
Consider that in dollar cost averaging, you convert dollars at a steady rate into another asset.  It works, because when the asset is expensive, your dollars buy less of it, and when the asset is cheap your dollars buy more of it.  That's exactly how you want to go about buying something.
Now consider selling an asset.  If you extract dollars at a steady rate from your store of the asset, it means that when the asset is expensive, you sell less of it, and when the asset is cheap you sell more of it.  That is most definitely not how you want to do it.
Instead, to wind down your position in an asset, you should sell that asset at a steady rate; e.g., sell the same amount of bitcoin every month.
By doing it that way, you are getting more dollars when bitcoin is expensive, and less dollars when bitcoin is cheap.
Another way to think about it is this:  when you acquire an asset using dollar cost averaging, in effect you're selling dollars, and by selling those dollars at a steady rate you get the best results.  Winding down an asset's position is the mirror image that process.  You're selling bitcoin, and selling those bitcoins at a steady rate denominated in bitcoin (not dollars) gives the best results.

@birr... The first part of your discussion of dollar cost averaging lends some insight to the practice because you are indicating that there is something wrong with employing an opposite strategy... however, then your suggestion largely devolves into a kind of recommendation of a reverse dollar cost average strategy.

NO matter if you are in a BTC accumulation stage, or a maintenance stage or a liquidation stage, your strategy should be to attempt to sell BTC on the way up and to buy BTC on the way down.  Of course the more you are on one spectrum or another remains a personal choice but it also effects how you may employ the strategy.  So for example, if you are in a BTC accumulation stage you might buy more on dips and perhaps sell less on rises because your goal is accumulation, but that should not cause you to sell on the way down or buy on the way up.

Usually, if some one who is employing a sell on the way up and buy on the way down is panicking because they screwed up and did not sell enough, so the strategy probably would be to attempt to make up for the screw up by selling a decent sized chunk and then returning to the strategy of buying if the price goes down with the proceeds that were generated from the sale.

Continuing to sell on the way down or creating a plan that continues to sell on the way down is not a good strategy nor is it equally good as buying on the way down... and perhaps making and emergency sell because of a screw up and then maybe even going back to HODL, if not feeling comfortable enough to buying on the way down.
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