Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

BTC $8700. Most extraordinary.

I think everyone has been expecting a big dump and the failure of that big dump is bullish. But the weekend isn’t over.  The next 28 hours are critical. 

Oh fuck.  Earwig’o. 

Toronto Stock Exchange to launch cryptocurrency exchange

https://www.ccn.com/toronto-stock-exchange-operator-to-launch-cryptocurrency-brokerage-platform/

Unexpected eh? FUD suppressed 100%, BCH hashrate menace vanished and all. I am also slightly surprised, but actually not that much. There were too many of us predicting a regular weekend dump and then on Monday blah blah - starting from me! It's not like "I knew, y'all clueless morons!"

Now let's be paranoid for a while - as a thought exercise. If I were a nasty whale - bear or bull is no fit category for such beasts - I'd try to fool the average noncontrarian smart traders who think they've got it all figured out - yes, that's me. And I don't feel I am alone. How would I go about that? Just the opposite of what's predicted by the smart herd of cows. Let her go up, up. No weekend dump, see, nice eh? Moon coming, hehe. A slightly better than average Monday... and then a brutal dive on Tuesday or Wednesday. That's when a short hedge can have your back and piss off the whale.

Just thinkin' aloud. Food for debate.

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[pacman7331]

BTC $8700. Most extraordinary.

I think everyone has been expecting a big dump and the failure of that big dump is bullish. But the weekend isn’t over.  The next 28 hours are critical. 

Oh fuck.  Earwig’o. 

Toronto Stock Exchange to launch cryptocurrency exchange

https://www.ccn.com/toronto-stock-exchange-operator-to-launch-cryptocurrency-brokerage-platform/

Unexpected eh? FUD suppressed 100%, BCH hashrate menace vanished and all. I am also slightly surprised, but actually not that much. There were too many of us predicting a regular weekend dump and then on Monday blah blah - starting from me! It's not like "I knew, y'all clueless morons!"

Now let's be paranoid for a while - as a thought exercise. If I were a nasty whale - bear or bull is no fit category for such beasts - I'd try to fool the average noncontrarian smart traders who think they've got it all figured out - yes, that's me. And I don't feel I am alone. How would I go about that? Just the opposite of what's predicted by the smart herd of cows. Let her go up, up. No weekend dump, see, nice eh? Moon coming, hehe. A slightly better than average Monday... and then a brutal dive on Tuesday or Wednesday. That's when a short hedge can have your back and piss off the whale.

Just thinkin' aloud. Food for debate.

Yes, but why?

[JayJuanGee]

Well, so much for trying to short BTC on margin as a hedge and setting a wimpy stop loss. REKT! Should have known better. Not sure what strategy that I need to employ to try and preserve value in this downtrend market.  

Initially, I thought that you said that you had entered a short, and then you cancelled (or closed early) because you did not have enough nerve to wait it out.

So, this subsequent short appears that you decided to enter another short, which did not work out.

Your thinking on this whole topic seems to be off, and several of us, have mentioned decent ways to buy on the way down and sell on the way up... both of those protect you from the downside, and  generally you do not need margin in bitcoin in order to make a lot of money... which is likely to remain true into the future.

Since I have largely been floating my BTC dedicated funds (that is BTC/dollars that are dedicated to BTC investing) BTC/$  ratio in the 87% to 97% arena (currently at about 93.5% BTC), I will concede that the total value of my portfolio in terms of dollars is way more valuable when BTC prices go up, and all of my activity back and forth is difficult to measure, and even does not look that good, in terms of dollars, when BTC prices are going down; however, a key component in this whole matter is to NOT get caught up on the dollar value of the holdings, and instead be attempting to accumulate BTC.  

If you value your wealth in BTC, then in the long term then in the long term, it is very likely that you are going to be richer in dollars, too.  You just should not be getting caught up in short term assessments that your wealth is going down in dollars, merely because bitcoin is going  down... .. Bitcoin going down equals buying opportunities and just continue to attempt to remain judicious in order that you never run out of BTC to sell on the way up and dollars to buy BTC with on the way down.

If you take these above principles to heart (currently the buying on the way down aspect), and stop fucking around with various attempts at gambling with margin plays, then with the passage of time your wealth is likely to continue to increase.

Well, so much for trying to short BTC on margin as a hedge and setting a wimpy stop loss. REKT! Should have known better. Not sure what strategy that I need to employ to try and preserve value in this downtrend market.  

Please tell me you aren't serious...

Yes I am serious. The sentiment around here has been rather bearish. So I gave it a shot. Now I am a few bitcents poorer.   Unfortunately, since I set my stop losses rather conservatively, the stop losses got filled. Oh well, guess it's back to the step method JJG likes so much.

I'm sorry that you keep switching back and forth.  Fuck that margin shit.. and who gives a shit about all the bear talk, even if it is coming from credible sources in this thread.. just figure out your own budget and continue to buy as the price goes down.. and try to figure out your buying points, even if you have to not buy any BTC between $6500 and $8800 and wait until below $6500 (if it were to happen, or something like that).. you gotta figure out your own budget, cash flow and buying points while keeping enough for extreme scenarios either way (that may or may not happen).

[d_eddie]

Hello Bones, I'm sorry it went like that. Maybe it's not a thing for you, but it can work in the right circumstances.

Well, so much for trying to short BTC on margin as a hedge and setting a wimpy stop loss. REKT! Should have known better. Not sure what strategy that I need to employ to try and preserve value in this downtrend market.  

If hedge it must be, it's better to try harder, knowing we'll take a few blows. It's supposed to cost us more than a "wimpy" loss if it goes against us. It takes a cool mind to be able to swallow a 20%-25% loss - but such a loss only if she shows signs of mooning (>10k, say), not if she just gets back but still stays under the latest local max (8900 or so).

The hedge short should be sized (small) and placed (high) as to become an unbearable-cut-me-here liability only around 12k, ideally even higher, so it's advisable to build it from < 1 leverage, scalping (partially closing/longing/buying) on each dip and reshorting (selling) slightly more, higher.

In the process, I had to swallow some losses already to lighten my position. But now I feel safe enough. I'll dump it with a curse if it really becomes unbearable. Btc > 12k? I can live with that. Half-sour curse really. Get under 7.8k and I'll collect some. Not much. Just so I can add it back at a higher price, if (when?) it happens.

You might be a bit too emotional, or your play money might be too small to buy serious insurance. However, with some discipline I think the game can be can practiced (actually played!) as if the small play bankroll were a gazillion dollars. After all, the coin can be broken into very fine grained units.

Please tell me you aren't serious...

He probably wasn't - a half-assed hedge played as a noncommittal bear is no way to go about it.

On the other hand, I confess I'm being serious, Bob - in a cold, but secretly hopeful, would-be unemotional way. Scenarios, worst cases, etc., all worked out in advance is the way to go. Know how much you can lose and in which exact circumstances.

I hope you can feel my neutral, clinical tone, Bones. This post isn't meant to point you out or offend you. On the contrary, you have lots of experience I don't have and likely never will (mining etc), so I look at you with respect and think you might see my point. Honestly, I haven't actually had a very expensive lesson yet, but I did have quite a few smaller ones. That's how I learned the little gameplay I know (very little!). You just got a lesson too, at a reasonable price. You weren't actually rekt if you could decide to call quits (as you did), so you survived after all. Come on, whine less and suffer your blows like a fightin' man  

[HairyMaclairy]

Highlights from Satoshi’s Vision, continued.

“ are you guys confident enough about OPGroup to eventually fork off in November if it doesn’t happen? “

 “That question is not for this time.  That question is for the pass chat. Can I get somebody to rise to the challenge and give us a great question? “

“ are you serious?  Are you serious? “

“ I am very serious. Hold on a second here. “

Peter R (looks bemused)

https://twitter.com/dandarkpill/status/977380524338634752?s=21

Context: 


https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/02/21/bitcoin-cash-descends-politics-smart-contract-like-scripts

[d_eddie]

Yes, but why?

As an exercise to build a model that works, or more mundanely as an exercise to maximize utility in different scenarios - preparing for both UP or DOWN in times of turbulence, as someone would say in many more words.

[cAPSLOCK]

I see $8900

I see:

quoted roach garbage

Sometimes I feel like quoting you so the ones ignoring you can see funny artistic things...

And that is exactly how you too get on the list!  Congrats!  Buh bye.

[d_eddie]

JJG, why the personal attacks here?

I speculate that JJG imagines themself to be the mostest specialest importantest poster in all of Bitcoindom. Perhaps merely marking territory?

1stly) JJG is not plural.    

2ndly) ascribing a self aggrandizing self-assessment seems a form of irrelevant personal attack

3rdly) Marking territory, me?   I thought that I was merely engaging in a back and forth discussion... Surely, I will concede that my back and forth devolved in a bit more of a personality assessment of Rosewater than perhaps necessary, but Rosewater is also bringing some of this on  himself/herself, too.  Further, my assessment  in that earlier post, namely juxtaposing the ideas of toothless and spineless, was meant to communicate about internet sensitivities - all be it, concededly, my post did devolve in a kind of personal way, too.

TLDR:  Shit happens.

See, jbreher? JJG is saying sorry in his slightly convoluted way, but to Jimbo and Rosewater, who don't seem to be too hurt or bothered anyway - not to you. You just keep on blurting out that nutjob bigblocker nonsense, so he just can't help not giving a ratt's ass. Nor can I. It's just that I try to keep it civil. We need another 4MB right now as we need a hole in our head, to quote a dead legend.

Now if you could just be nicer to each other, well that would be great.
(insert meme, I can't be bothered).

Like, say, two esteemed colleagues in ladder practices - it wasn't named the 2J-ladder by chance.

Then, soon we could have a nice Easter barbecue (with veggie options and all), and the world would be a better place.

Go figure.

[HairyMaclairy]

$9k incoming?  What a weekend this would be for a BTC pump.

[infofront]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-23/drudge-coulter-trash-trump-over-fake-veto-base-rages

#FakeVeto #BetAgainstTheDebt #TheCollapseIsComing #BuyBitcoin

A big thanks to the political elite of the world, for continuing to give bitcoin a raison d'etre.

[infofront]

Highlights from Satoshi’s Vision, continued.

“ are you guys confident enough about OPGroup to eventually fork off in November if it doesn’t happen? “

 “That question is not for this time.  That question is for the pass chat. Can I get somebody to rise to the challenge and give us a great question? “

“ are you serious?  Are you serious? “

“ I am very serious. Hold on a second here. “

Peter R (looks bemused)

https://twitter.com/dandarkpill/status/977380524338634752?s=21

Context: 


https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/02/21/bitcoin-cash-descends-politics-smart-contract-like-scripts

Are you going to support Bitcoin Cash Classic?

[jojo69]

clashic, they already have that...it kept the original EDA if I recall correctly, probably easy as fuck to mine about now

[pacman7331]

$9k incoming?  What a weekend this would be for a BTC pump.

i’m skeptical...

[realr0ach]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-23/drudge-coulter-trash-trump-over-fake-veto-base-rages

#FakeVeto #BetAgainstTheDebt #TheCollapseIsComing #BuyBitcoin

Torque must be the new Mat the Cat claiming that bitcoin is somehow a good buy if the system is about to implode.  Bitcoin is a speculative pump and dump that will perish with everything else in a liquidity crunch and not even close to a safety asset. The only good buy in that circumstance if you believe the end is nigh is the base of Exter's Pyramid aka silver and gold.

[Toxic2040]

Bitcoin is showing strength as the market has moved beyond $8.9k and seems intent on climbing higher. I expect consolidation down to $8.6k over the next few hours and then a possible push to $9.3k and perhaps beyond.
#dyor #btfd

[HairyMaclairy]

Roger Ver announced Bitcoin.com wallet will only hold bcash lol. 

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Roger Ver announced Bitcoin.com wallet will only hold bcash lol. 

Are they really still going? Do they have anything planned to go against LN? I don't see how they are going to even pretend to be relevant after that.

[realr0ach]

Roger Ver announced Bitcoin.com wallet will only hold bcash lol.  

Are they really still going? Do they have anything planned to go against LN? I don't see how they are going to even pretend to be relevant after that.

The only way LN works for mass adoption is like this, but that was the plan all along.  LN is a trojan horse.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Roger Ver announced Bitcoin.com wallet will only hold bcash lol.  

Are they really still going? Do they have anything planned to go against LN? I don't see how they are going to even pretend to be relevant after that.

The only way LN works for mass adoption is like this, but that was the plan all along:

I would care about your nonsensical rambling if you properly asserted that literally anybody can open hubs, while hardly anyone can open a bank.

[realr0ach]

Roger Ver announced Bitcoin.com wallet will only hold bcash lol.  

Are they really still going? Do they have anything planned to go against LN? I don't see how they are going to even pretend to be relevant after that.

The only way LN works for mass adoption is like this, but that was the plan all along:

I would care about your nonsensical rambling if you properly asserted that literally anybody can open hubs, while hardly anyone can open a bank.

That's not true at all.  The variable of liquidity alone forces it into a TBTF mega-bank model.  Goldman Sachs and friends will also lobby for the govt to impose all the same enormous compliance hurdles, fees, AML/KYC, etc as opening a regular bank.