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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25817927 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
cAPSLOCK
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March 19, 2018, 04:36:48 PM

maybe btc is different, but pumps like this are typical for bear markets.
bull usually does not involve 20-30% day gains (apart from blowoff tops).
we shall see.

I hate to say it, but you are probably right.

Still... you DO see bigass candles on bigass volume when markets TURN.

Is that happening?  Million dollar (1btc?) question.

Not to be Debbie Downer, but do you remember in summer of 2014 when:

1. Price was held steady sideways @ $420/btc for nearly 2-1/2 months. Almost the whole summer. This felt like forever.

2. Price then pumped with bull flags to ~$650/btc. or so. Many said this was the sign that the downturn and sideways was over.

3. Price crashed again in 2015 to ~$200/btc. .... nearly 7 months later!

That's why I've never trusted this market. Once whales have control of the float, they can peg it wherever they want for whatever length of time they wish.

Oh, I remember.

And I think that scenario is somewhat LESS likely than the one I posited.  But I think the original scenario is most likely.  We are still in a bear, but hopefully not one that needs to last years.

That said, I do still see a lot of reasons to hope.  Fundamentals are WAY different now than they were in 2014.  In 2014 Bitcoin was magical internet money.  Today it is *nearly* a household word.  Free(ish) nations are inching towards giving it room to grow as opposed to regulating it to death (we still have a lot to see here... and the next two days will be interesting)  At the same time the scourge of "ICO"s is under scrutiny, which I consider to be good.  Roguish and authoritarian states are either mining or creating cryptos.  Mixed, but goodish.  Layer 2 is in!  It's like the birth of the web.  The internet had been around for years.  Then suddenly there were all these pages with this guy on them:


And that's where we are.  The real use cases are coming.

There are a lot of really smart people in the world.  And they are the ones who have the money.  Some don't like this fact, but it is what it is.

They are going to figure out what we have known for years.

Soon.™
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March 19, 2018, 04:43:18 PM

I have made money from the last bull run and withdrawn it into my bank to not care about this drop. One thing I am certain, I will buy back when the market is favorable. I have small orders already filled but big ones waiting at the very bottom. Dont be scared. Bitcoin from the very start is like this. We've seen worse. It will recover.

I closed off my short on the last terrific shake down to 7.3k. Too much profit to ignore.

Then I thought - before starting to nurse it again, why not go long?

So I have a long position now, from the past low. It's in profit right now, but I would like to wait a bit more before closing and reversing it.

So, I think this is the problem with margin trading. You begin cautiously - it's a hedge, you know - and before you know it, you turn into a gambler. A winning gambler for the time being, but that's the point: the change in attitude. Using margin trading properly and sticking to the plan - ot at least to the mindset - requires lots of discipline.

My hunch about quick-reversing and longing is still paying out, but if I manage to close this in profit, I'm going back to my safety short. Then let it go down to 2k. I won't care.

It seems that we are thinking about this in a similar way, but I think that if you can set your orders in such a way that it minimizes the gambling aspect, then you have yourself a system that you can follow for the long term.  But you are likely correct in your instinct that one bad trade could wipe out 10 profitable ones, perhaps.
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March 19, 2018, 04:55:08 PM

When using RSI as a technical indicator, what is the appropriate time period to be using?  For a large portion of the past day the RSI has been 60-70ish.  Will we likely see a drop in the price in the coming days?
criptix
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March 19, 2018, 04:56:18 PM

NO G20/EU regulations!!!!

I LOVE MAMA MERKEL!!!!!
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March 19, 2018, 05:04:11 PM

NO G20/EU regulations!!!!

I LOVE MAMA MERKEL!!!!!

Link ?
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March 19, 2018, 05:05:08 PM

NO G20/EU regulations!!!!

I LOVE MAMA MERKEL!!!!!

Link ?

Its been acknowledged as the reason to the pump we have had over the past day.
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March 19, 2018, 05:06:24 PM
Merited by yefi (1)

Speaking of capitulation, I'm CONSIDERING starting to contemplate selling a batch - if I can - between $7.5-$8k before end of March just to get the tax monkey off my back. Sent an email to my accountant asking what the penalty is on $xM deferred from Q1 to Q2.

Seriously.

Sheeeit.

No proud to admit this.

Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.
EVERYONE.

Last summer majormax said there would be no new ATH for another few years. Bitcoin hit a $20k ATH half a year later.

... the trend is now down, and there will not be a new all time high for a couple of years or more.

This is a repeat of early 2014, the patterns are easy to see. The variation now is that the alts have a larger share of total market capitalisation. Capital will flow back to BTC, but it will not reverse the trend overall.

2 year view, BTC will fall 65% from the peak, alts will fall 70-90%  (with many going to zero ultimately)

Today he's making the same prediction of a few years of bear market without another ATH. His trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.

. ... and you are not ready to sell yet, but would be more ready at say $2500.

The key thing now (and it will prove impossible for most people) is to accept that whatever you hold will decline in $ price by another 75% (making 90% decline in total), and that will take place in a grinding downwards pattern, including long counter-trend rallies, spread over ~2 years.


Like you mentioned, many of the bear shills predict the same bullshit over and over and over again.  Sure, some days they are partially correct especially during periods of price correction - but they are largely wishing and spreading misinformation because a lot of opportunities would be missed if you followed their suggestion by either selling or buying less than you otherwise would during opportune price correction periods.

And Bob's statement about EVERYONE being wrong largely amounts to a whimpy-ass and emotional capitulation outburst. Sure some folks are more wrong than others, but one of the dynamics that is most predictable in bitcoin is price volatility in one direction or another and frequently overshooting expectations.  There remain ways to profit from volatility, even when the whole process of buying on the way down and selling on the way up can be painful, especially during periods of overshooting.
Rosewater Foundation
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March 19, 2018, 05:07:02 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Well, it was fun while it lasted

His Flying Noodliness hears all prayers.

(Sometimes the answer is no)
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March 19, 2018, 05:10:50 PM

"Trump Orders New Sanctions Against Venezuela's National Cryptocurrency"

https://www.coindesk.com/trump-orders-new-sanctions-against-venezuelas-national-cryptocurrency/

After G20 summit headache, here comes Trump.
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March 19, 2018, 05:10:56 PM

NO G20/EU regulations!!!!

I LOVE MAMA MERKEL!!!!!

Link ?

Its been acknowledged as the reason to the pump we have had over the past day.

That was the FSB news. The meetings are actually on now and tomorrow.
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March 19, 2018, 05:15:45 PM

BTC mining banned in NY town!

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/03/16/bitcoin-mining-banned-for-first-time-in-upstate-new-york-town
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March 19, 2018, 05:16:28 PM

NO G20/EU regulations!!!!

I LOVE MAMA MERKEL!!!!!

Link ?

Its been acknowledged as the reason to the pump we have had over the past day.

That was the FSB news. The meetings are actually on now and tomorrow.


Yep im talking mainly about that:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-regulations-carney/g20-watchdog-focuses-on-rules-review-holds-fire-on-cryptocurrencies-idUSKBN1GU0SF

From national news i know that france and germany will take it easy too - means the durection for the EU is set in the shirt term too.







Lol - germany just made mining tax free ^^^^^^
infofront (OP)
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March 19, 2018, 05:27:44 PM
Last edit: March 19, 2018, 05:38:04 PM by infofront

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.
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March 19, 2018, 05:34:05 PM

Some fools dumping their bitcoins due to Trump order for Petro, without realizing that it does NOT say anything about bitcoin in any sense at all.


Funny. Dotcom crash = 75% value down from ATH. If bitcoin followed the dotcom crash, then it's already 75% value down from its ATH, so according to that, we've already entered the recovery phase. There's of course no bubble, it's just all about volatility in bitcoin.
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March 19, 2018, 05:54:10 PM

Business news.
Uber finally killed somebody.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/19/uber-self-driving-car-fatality-halts-testing-in-all-cities-report-says.html
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March 19, 2018, 06:19:10 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

When using RSI as a technical indicator, what is the appropriate time period to be using?  For a large portion of the past day the RSI has been 60-70ish.  Will we likely see a drop in the price in the coming days?


 The proper use is daily with a setting of 14.  Large price swings can give false buy and sell signals especially when using an abbreviated time frame.  You should use the RSI in conjunction with other indicators - moving average crossovers are a popular choice (settings of 5, 8 and 13 are considered optimum for day trading) and also watch for RSI failure swings to confirm potential breakouts.


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March 19, 2018, 06:22:55 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), Wekkel (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), infofront (1), 600watt (1), RejectedBanana (1)

Good morning all. Bitcoin has turned a corner it appears as the bulls push the price past 8.5k. Following the breaking news from the White House as President Trump bans the Pedro dollar the price has retracted to 8.3k but I think this is temporary. This EO has very little impact on bitcoin imo and could be taking as a positive because bitcoin is neither mentioned nor implied.

Regardless of the comments coming from the G20 representative, it also had a positive short term impact on the price. For the mid-term and long range ramifications we will just have to wait and see how it works out. The release of the comments happened to coincide with a very apparent TA signal to buy and the market responded with its usual fury. I believe this has propelled us into a early crypto spring rally that might carry us higher.

Imho...the indicated direction of not recommending new enforcement regulations but instead to use existing ones, tells us that "they" are aware of the the nascent bitcoin cryptoverse and are perhaps willing to take a "soft hands" approach until something else is needed. I feel this is important to existing and newly developing bitcoin related businesses as they will not have to jump through new potential regulatory hoops or allocate more capital to attain compliance.

I also think that that .1% market is growing to 1% over the next 18 months. The other .9% is most likely already attempting to enter into the bitcoin market. I think everyone of us should be looking towards 2020 and the Olympic Games being hosted in Tokyo and be thinking up ways to promote the public awareness of bitcoin and its use.


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March 19, 2018, 06:51:40 PM

Clearly you do not comprehend finance is needed to fund everything.....and Washington has sold off everything to continue funding endless wars. But the pot is now empty and the world no longer needs the US(less) dollar. And with nothing to trade, nothing left to sell...and nobody accepting the Washington dollar.....your  military cannot protect you from hyper inflation and bankruptcy.

just now is usa scary acuse of chinnese for somethink/g..usa just carefully chose words against Chinese .. now chinese get green to dig uran ore in russia. superpower are no longer on west.. just msm news keep plebs in "dream"

just kwa kwa here  Cheesy Cheesy
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March 19, 2018, 07:06:58 PM

Epic BLOCKCHAINIAN RHAPSODY!

This guy is amazing.  Must listen all!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzXM2x6rQhs



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March 19, 2018, 07:30:23 PM

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

I would not use AMZ too much as an example... . Nor any of the other FANGs...
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