Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Everything is roses. Why are you people always so down? We're still up from a year ago. Or whatever

How am I going to sell enough Bitcorn to support myself and Rick, both, for early retirement, at these prices ?!??

Everything IS NOT OK, man.

You were right to sell when you did. Alas, you probably should have unloaded the whole bucket and never looked back.

Live and learn?

For long term BTC hodlers and accumulators, I frequently question the reasonableness of "whoa is me," assertions, because the level of our current correction - a bit above 70% from the high point (and within about 7 months), remains totally within reason, especially if you consider that the BTC price appreciation was about 78x from $250 in 2 years, and with current prices in the $6,100 arena, we are still up about 24x. 

But gosh, we should not expect necessarily to have forever up without corrections or attempts to weed out weak hands, yet whether there is going to be more down or not is surely not a given.. so we do not know, but even the $1,300 to $3,000 scenarios are not without reason, even though currently, they seem to be far from a given...   So yeah, if guys and gal is fretting about being able to maintain themselves at these prices, there may be a need to sell some coins.. so we can weed the remainder of the weak hands.

[JayJuanGee]

- In 5 months we've had a triple bottom with a great support at $5800
- Most of the altcoin markets are already down by 90% and lower
- There are blockchain projects that are so undervalued as a result of the bear market that I'm tempted to rob a bank just so I can buy some extra bags
- The twitter "influencers", a.k.a. shitcoin pump and dumpers have been eliminated
- The telegram pump groups and the youtube crypto analysts that were spamming the shit out of us have disappeared as well

Your grandma, your hairdresser, the gravediggers and the McDonalds workers have capitulated a long time ago.

What you see in the chart below is not people selling their bags in desperation, it's just whale day traders liquidating each other with the power of margin, otherwise, you cannot explain rationally the trading pattern. I mean, it's sideways trading for a few days (sometimes weeks) followed by green/red dildo candles. Capitulation doesn't happen this way.



All in all, I find these to be positive signs. Bitcoin is still lower in market cap than Jeff Bezos's wealth. I'm patiently waiting for the next bubble.

I remember when you used to be an irritating and seemingly ongoing negative nancy trolling bear.

Something must have happened to you, because in recent times, you seem to have transformed and have been truly dropping pearls of wisdom upon us.   Go figure?

[Rosewater Foundation]

"whoa is me," assertions

[Rosewater Foundation]

I remember when

We're being trolled to hold. It's like shooting fish in a barrel, because we're all fanatics. Do you see?

[JayJuanGee]

Caution: Mempool rising.

I don't see it.  Currently, estimated BTC fees low and estimated transaction times fast...

We seem to be in ongoing great shape...

If a mempool attack had been in the works 12 hours ago, there seems to be little to no effect 12 hours later.

[YourMother]

- In 5 months we've had a triple bottom with a great support at $5800
- Most of the altcoin markets are already down by 90% and lower
- There are blockchain projects that are so undervalued as a result of the bear market that I'm tempted to rob a bank just so I can buy some extra bags
- The twitter "influencers", a.k.a. shitcoin pump and dumpers have been eliminated
- The telegram pump groups and the youtube crypto analysts that were spamming the shit out of us have disappeared as well

Your grandma, your hairdresser, the gravediggers and the McDonalds workers have capitulated a long time ago.

What you see in the chart below is not people selling their bags in desperation, it's just whale day traders liquidating each other with the power of margin, otherwise, you cannot explain rationally the trading pattern. I mean, it's sideways trading for a few days (sometimes weeks) followed by green/red dildo candles. Capitulation doesn't happen this way.



All in all, I find these to be positive signs. Bitcoin is still lower in market cap than Jeff Bezos's wealth. I'm patiently waiting for the next bubble.

I remember when you used to be an irritating and seemingly ongoing negative nancy trolling bear.

Something must have happened to you, because in recent times, you seem to have transformed and have been truly dropping pearls of wisdom upon us.   Go figure?

I was trolling the fuck out of you, guys. I did it because it was fun and it was very much in trend at that time lol. Not to mention that I had some strong comrades in NotLambChop, Prof. Stolfi and others

I was buying like a lunatic at $200

[rafanadal]

I told you not to get excited about those shitty 300 dollar pumps

[JayJuanGee]

I remember when

We're being trolled to hold. It's like shooting fish in a barrel, because we're all fanatics. Do you see?

You can do whatever the fuck you want.

And, by the way, if guys and gal here are suggesting strategies, that does not mean that you are "being trolled", because if you are a grown up , you have to figure out for yourself, and surely there is no problem to use forums (and threads) like this as a means to brainstorm your ideas.

As many regulars here realize (beaten to death, perhaps) I have a BTC strategy that I follow for myself, and it seems to work very well for me and from my perspective, so I ongoingly recommend that peeps attempt to find or follow such a strategy or a similar strategy.

In the end, you gotta do whatever the fuck you believe is good for yourself and to tailor your system to your finances, risk profile and timeline, etc...

I understand also, that it is very difficult for folks to get away from gambling mentalities.  I know a lot of gambling mentalities through these bitcoin talk threads and also in real life,  and I believe that gambling mentalities and strategies tend to screw over peeps who employ such strategies, even though there may be some rare gambler types who are able to develop buy/sell/hold systems that cause them to profit sufficiently reasonable or even perhaps to profit more than the non-gambler types.. but like I suggested, those kinds of profitable gambler types seem to be rare beasts, even though a lot of folks seem inclined to get sucked into gambling styles of investing and failing to identify the differences between fundamentally strong assets and other pump and dump assets.  Lot's of misinformation (and even convincing misinformation) to get sucked into.

[Rosewater Foundation]

I don't see it. 

Nevertheless

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I remember when you used to be an irritating and seemingly ongoing negative nancy trolling bear.

Something must have happened to you, because in recent times, you seem to have transformed and have been truly dropping pearls of wisdom upon us.   Go figure?

I was trolling the fuck out of you, guys. I did it because it was fun and it was very much in trend at that time lol. Not to mention that I had some strong comrades in NotLambChop, Prof. Stolfi and others

I was buying like a lunatic at $200

Hahahahaha.. .

I was questioning whether to merit an admitted troll, but I suppose it takes all types in these here WO parts in order for us to be both entertained and to attempt to educate ourselves to sort the wheat from the chaff (hard knocks of the real world) and I suppose that there is a certain value in receiving confessions from an experienced hitman. 

[ThePunisher49X]

It is a funny beast.
One minute it is dropping back down to under $6000 the next it pumps to $100 and everybody on youtube are going
'Told ya so to hodl!'
Damn you CNBC saying it is dead yet again.

Who is this Stiglitz guy anyways?
https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/987029/Bitcoin-price-ripple-cryptocurrency-ethereum-BTC-to-USD-XRP-news-Stiglitz

[JayJuanGee]

I feel desperate in these uncertain times.

That usually means you didn't take enough profit in the good times. I felt really bad about the bitcoin that I sold at 1000 when this thing was 20,000 but at times like these I feel so much better having taken some good profit at 15,000. I know I'm a terrible hodler but taking profit at the tops makes it so that I'm not really stressed at all at the bottoms. It's probably worth it to be stress free.

Also, to anyone who is feeling down in the dumps about the current price action, I recommend downloading the Bitcoin Lightning Network app on your android phone and playing with it. Doing this has made me very excited about the future of bitcoin and reaffirmed my long term bull expectation. Paying a penny for something and having it be super easy and super fast and unbelievably cheap transaction fee is just fun to do.

I think that most of us know Elwar enough to recognize that he was being a bit facetious with his earlier self-assessed "desperation."  Seems that he was also inclined to believe that we could be at a possible bottom, here, and I am not sure if that it is too optimistic, or not.

Surely, it would be nice to get a bit of upward BTC price action from here.. but even though such uppity could happen at any minute, it could also take months for that upwards scenario to meaningfully happen.  How many more sellers are there?  How many more hands can be shaken?  Do the bears have enough coins that they are willing and able to dump in order to inspire such additional shaking of coins?

[JayJuanGee]

Wtf it is 8100 right now what is happening there?

WEX currently has 20% withdrawal fees on USD and EUR, after they removed a few offramps. It was normal until last week, then slowly went to 9%, then 15%, then 20% today.

Notice that as withdrawal fees approach 100%, everything will moon. May or may not be a wexit scam after the exchange may or may not have been sold.

so many new exchanges have popped up... there will be a big elimination coming... trust the old ones, those who never been hacked and let the suckers do the debugging and join the quest for the best DEX.

What are you saying, exactly here?  

WEX is a rebranding of BTC-e, so of course, they have a long history, and surely their last episode was a bit of a shocker with the US Government getting into their system and seizing some of their assets (but seemingly not the crypto)... WEX already had a really decent opportunity to perform an exit scam... so, it seems doubtful that they would do an exit scam...

Of course, some WEX skeptics would assert that they are just engaged in ongoing milking of their customers, and the exit scam will come at some later point, when there is no more customer funds to milk.  Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps?

I have 21,000 NMC on WEX.

I've tried so hard to get them off the exchange but have come to accept that I will never get them back.

At current NMC/BTC prices, that is about 40 BTC, no?  

Did you lose verification of your WEX account, because you can withdraw tokens, no?  

I recall that in July 2017, the US Govt seized BTC-e assets, and it took a bit more than a month for WEX to grant access to previous accounts.

I think that there was some ease of access to the new accounts as long as your log-in still worked, and for certain accounts, they required additional verification, I believe mostly if for some reason you had lost access to your previous account - like you lost your password or there was some desire to increase your limits or to deposit/withdraw fiat.  Personally, I thought that a large number of users could have gotten by without increasing their verification, as long as their old log-in still worked and was transferred over to WEX - that was the case with me.  My old log-in caused me to be able to generate a new password (under their new password system) and then to be able to access all of my balances from my previous BTC-e account - except there was a rebalancing of about 40% or whatever it was for the socializing losses situation that they promised would be paid back 100% - within no later than 2 years, and many of those have not been paid back, yet (about 1 year later).  So, I am thinking that there must have been some specific issue with your account that raised questions about whether you needed to increase your verification or whether you could prove your identity.. or did they fuck up your ability to access in some other way? or were there some other circumstances that you are able to pinpoint?

I personally have been able to deposit and withdraw BTC from their system, and I have not gotten any increased verifications beyond my previous BTC-e access credentials.

I bought the NMC a long time ago when they were very cheap. Kept them on btc-e because they weren't really worth much (compared to my BTC).

Before they were seized (about half a year before) I went to log in and pull them off as the price was up a bit and they were actually worth something.

But my account had been frozen due to not logging in for a year. They had a long verification process I had to go through to get logged in. I followed it. I move countries all the time so proof of residence is never easy for me. There was back and forth until they asked for a passport (I had given them my Korean drivers license). Once they saw that I was American all communication stopped. I was in a never ending ("processing") holding pattern.

Nothing I can do to get it unlocked. They have everything they need. A few of us are trying to track down the owners. The only way I see getting it back is through not so nice means.

"You applied for verification. Wait for approval."

About a year with that message.

That seems to be a bit strange, and even a bit scammy, and it seems that a large part of the obstacle matter happened before the July 2017 USA Govt seizure.  That is a lot of quantity of coins (in terms of BTC value), and it seems that it could be worth it to hire some kind of russian diplomat.. there is a language barrier, perhaps too.  I had found that some of my previous communications did have some difficulties based on language, but they are likely NOT too excited to deal with anyone who has USA connections.. and then your identifications are conflicting too.. but that might just be an excuse than an actual barrier that is not able to confirm you to be you.  The only other issue would be if there were more than one person making a claim to your account, then they are left in a pickle (but that does not seem to be the case with your actual situation).

It's 4.3btc, but still.

I recalculated, and you seem to be correct that I was off by a factor of 10x... so that makes a BIG difference.. 4btc, versus 40btc..
and perhaps 4 btc might not be as much worth the effort to fight and to sort out... even if it hurts, it can be written off because it was purchased a long time ago when the value was way lower...

[RoomBot]

GO, BTC!

where the moon? beyond?

Yes & Yes.

A few more Halvenings, and as people catch on to limited supply and cost of mining.... Asteroid Belt!

[yefi]

A 30-min chart will produce a noisy signal if you want to apply it to a six month trend. I don't see much use going below one-day resolution really.

[mymenace]

@YourMother great TA



trolls what you gonna do




12 July 2012. The Gentleperson's Guide To Forum Spies

https://cryptome.org/2012/07/gent-forum-spies.htm

25 February 2014. Related: GCHQ Full-Spectrum Cyber Effects:

http://cryptome.org/2014/02/gchq-cyber-effects.pdf

24 February 2014. Related: GCHQ Online Deception:

http://cryptome.org/2014/02/gchq-online-deception.pdf

GCHQ DISRUPTION Operational Playbook:

http://cryptome.org/2014/02/gchq-disruption.pdf

29 January 2014. Related: GCHQ Squeaky Dolphin Psychological Operations:

http://cryptome.org/2014/01/gchq-squeaky-dolphin.pdf (18MB)

4 March 2012. Precursor to this sabotage, OSS Sabotage of Organizations:

http://svn.cacert.org/CAcert/CAcert_Inc/Board/oss/oss_sabotage.html

[infofront]

I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair.

I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to defend the value of Bitcoin, to ride out the storm of FUD, and to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone. At any rate, that is what we are going to try to do. That is the resolve of His Majesty’s Government-every man of them. That is the will of Parliament and the nation. The British Empire and the French Republic, linked together in their cause and in their need, will defend to the death their blockchain, aiding each other like good comrades to the utmost of their strength. Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous Altcoins have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Banksters and all the odious apparatus of Socialist rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end, we shall fight on bitfinex, we shall fight on gemini and bitstamp, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our blockchain, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the forums, we shall fight on twitter, we shall fight in /r/bitcoin and /r/btc, we shall fight on tradingview; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, tether blows up, and Bitcoin plunges to $3,000, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of Bitcoin.

[Searing]

I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair. I will avoid falling into a bottomless pit of despair.

my denial is in a different form....'everything' is a bubble...the stock market is next....a normal recession/correction is 20% with Trump and other issues in society ..I expect at least

a 40% recession...thus IF BTC is a store of value like Gold...MAYBE..it will simply, when the above happens, simply go sideways in price or up yet (like gold maybe)

So ..figured my retirement  (traditional) and crypto (best guess at say 3k BTC) and knock wood ...stay out of debt..income is no worse than it was before I was in crypto...

so calling it a win and moving on...

again, too much weird ass, denial crap, in society and business and gov't going on ...sh*t IMHO is going to hit the fan..

If I'm wrong, I'll have 2x the money I expect in everything and will be pleasantly surprised

but...really not thinking that is gonna be the case

(could be worse....w/o crypto I would not have retired 3 years early and thus not be able to whine about above..man would I be frigging freaking out if that was the case...

likely to be pro-active I'd be looking for a 2nd part-time job on top of full time job..just to be proactive...so shudder..it is not that bad for me anyway....crypto 66% dump in

price or not

my 2 satoshi's

brad

[criptix]

to that guy on bitmex, please stop flashing your 30 million sell wall  

(was some hours ago)

[billyjoeallen]

Has anyone noticed how Dash has been the bellweather for many recent market moves? It seems to precede the Bicoin turns by anywhere from a minute to two hours. Dash has a tiniy market cap and paper thin volume, so this should not be the case, IMO.