Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rosewater Foundation]

Odds seem against three years, and odds seem against 3 months, too, but seems that each are within a similar probabilities range.

Absolutely... 3 months to 3 years is a wide range: just a bell curve of probabilty .

So maybe from what seems really hard to forecast, and those range defining guesses, we can estimate a period of ~18 months between 5k and 10k ?

Can you live with that ?  I am guessing that most ppl find it difficult to accept, and they might be at risk of overtrading through boredom.

Jay can do 18 months standing on his head. As for me, price action has become secondary to meme action and ignoring people.

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[FirePoseidon]

Right now the price will remain as low as possible until accumulation is finished. If you look at the graph it is a bollinger band squeeze (accumulation trend). The maniuplators have an infinite supply of capital to use (fiat) since they can print more at will..

[Rosewater Foundation]

The maniuplators have an infinite supply of capital to use (fiat) since they can print more at will..

And yet ... a finite supply of Bitcoins. Do you see?

[JayJuanGee]

Odds seem against three years, and odds seem against 3 months, too, but seems that each are within a similar probabilities range.

Absolutely... 3 months to 3 years is a wide range: just a bell curve of probabilty .

So maybe from what seems really hard to forecast, and those range defining guesses, we can estimate a period of ~18 months between 5k and 10k ?

Can you live with that ?  I am guessing that most ppl find it difficult to accept, and they might be at risk of overtrading through boredom.

Actually, if you agree that 3 months and 3 years are merely a bundle of probabilities that are on a bell curve, then agreeing to a compromise, some point in the middle could become the most probable, but that still does not make the most probable one as to being the scenario that actually plays out or that we should place 100% on that most like scenario... Also the bell curve could be skewed to one side or another from each persons perspective, which might make a spot on one end or another end of the range to be  more likely.

Hypothetically, let's say that for whatever reason, there is decent evidence to conclude that 13.3months has the highest score, but even with that "high score" might only add up to 35% or something like that, right? 

I don't know exactly how the points on the graph plot out, but I know that factors in the world could change the shape of the "bell" curve and the peaks of such curves (and even whether it is a bell curve or a skewed curve or double hump curve) to change at time 1, time 2 and time 3, etc etc.

The most practical way of betting such curves would be to attempt to reflect the probability assignments that you give to each one, and maybe playing some probabilities a little bit higher than others, but never really betting BIG on any one scenario or narrow set of scenarios, merely because on one day or over time, it appears that that narrow set of outcome possibilities is viewed to be largely more likely.

[edited out]

Jay can do 18 months standing on his head. As for me, price action has become secondary to meme action and ignoring people.

Actually, you are correct to suggest that my investment into bitcoin has been planned for the long-term, so the plan plays out for the long-term too.

Actually, when I got into bitcoin, I was thinking that my investment timeline would be for several years, such as a supplemental retirement fund, so I did not develop any exit strategy, beyond just planning long term.  None of the fundamentals of bitcoin have changed or caused any reason to change the plan, and surely it helps to be in sufficient profits that even a dip to $1k would still be profitable (even though concededly, it would not be a good thing to drop 1/8th of today's price or anything even approaching that kind of low price range). 

[Rosewater Foundation]

even a dip to $1k would still be profitable (even though concededly, it would not be a good thing to drop 1/8th of today's price or anything even approaching that kind of low price range). 

I'm in it to win it. If this happens I will shit myself sideways and you will all have to watch.

[realr0ach]

Maybe When i go to the US need to plan a trip through Kansas ;-) ?? Maybe iT can surprise me

Kansas has one thing going for it - Jews have not managed to destroy it yet by using brown people as expendable, biological weapons against whites:



This one weird trick of expelling the evil cult known as Jews from your country before they can enact the Kalergi plan can prevent you from being killed by grenades.

[buyandhold]

16 such attacks in 2017
3 in 2018
fuck your racist stats

[realr0ach]

16 such attacks in 2017
3 in 2018
fuck your racist stats

If you don't allow black people to kill you or Jews to steal from you then you're racist.

[mudbone]

I have an illness called Celiac Disease and have to follow a strict gluten free diet.

I pity people with real Celiac Disease.

I may therefore become very ill if I eat food containing flours or grains of wheat, rye, barley and oats. Does this food contain flour or grains of wheat, rye, barley or oats? If you are at all uncertain about what the food contains, please tell me.

Terrible. Well, what can you eat?

I can eat food containing rice, maize, potatoes, all kinds of vegetables and fruit, eggs, cheese, milk, meat and fish - as long as they are not cooked with wheat flour, batter, breadcrumbs or sauce.

Calamari?

[infofront]

I implore you all to have a long term plan for dealing with the calamari plan.

[Elwar]

I have no TA on this or anything but I will officially declare that weekend pumps indicate a bull market while weekend dumps indicate a bear market.

Let it be known.

[nikauforest]

One more push up coming. I still think we need to test that phase 2 trend line, currently around 5k rising to 6k in December. Maybe we did bottom, but I am skeptical. Still happy either way.

[sirazimuth]

I swear ,lurking bitcoiners who occasionally stop in to peruse the famous WO thread these days must be like "wtf?!?"  Lol

[sirazimuth]

I have an illness called Celiac Disease and have to follow a strict gluten free diet.

I pity people with real Celiac Disease.

I may therefore become very ill if I eat food containing flours or grains of wheat, rye, barley and oats. Does this food contain flour or grains of wheat, rye, barley or oats? If you are at all uncertain about what the food contains, please tell me.

Terrible. Well, what can you eat?

I can eat food containing rice, maize, potatoes, all kinds of vegetables and fruit, eggs, cheese, milk, meat and fish - as long as they are not cooked with wheat flour, batter, breadcrumbs or sauce.

Calamari?

Well not sure about the calamari but I hear his matzah ball recipe is to die for....

[Rosewater Foundation]

another day another dollar

Goodnight Bitcoinland

[HairyMaclairy]

Wait. Who is the dude next to the coyote?

[hv_]

Haha, digged old stuff out - still good and correct.

Small blocks was dictated by the 'best' software devs and a fiat based blockstream, blocking on chain stream.

Bitcoin business devs moved on, since on-chain scaling is provenly possible in the global money world.

Sure, not with Raspis, censure and social engineering, but with decent tech and investment like minres already achieved over last years.

Do you have a BIP?  Or are you merely suggesting that folks here migrate over to bcash, since bcash is surely superior to bitcoin with its segwit and lightning network and other second layer scaling, right?

KISS is king.

Complexity will die or never take off.

[RoomBot]

I swear ,lurking bitcoiners who occasionally stop in to peruse the famous WO thread these days must be like "wtf?!?"  Lol

especially during the major dips!

Or days that end in "y"

Yup. pretty much whenever.

[JayJuanGee]

even a dip to $1k would still be profitable (even though concededly, it would not be a good thing to drop 1/8th of today's price or anything even approaching that kind of low price range).  

I'm in it to win it. If this happens I will shit myself sideways and you will all have to watch.

I just don't think that scenario is too likely.  It is like the dip from came from late 2013 rather than the dip that come from early 2013.... so I just continue to think that we are more likely in a dip from early 2013.   You gotta admit that anything approaching $1k and even below $2500 would shake a lot of weak hands, yet I am not sure that the bears have such ammunition in them, even if they are simultaneously shaking the froth from the alt coin space.

To me, it just seems that a later dip from supra $100,000 to sub $15,000 would be the more likely weak hand shaking scenario..

Tentative thinking.

Regarding your likelihood to drag us down with you in your suffering, if such a $1k dip were to play out, seems like you would have such prerogative.

[jonoiv]

So, when Franco started the Spanish Civil War, he was a left-winger?

Did some quick and dirty google-fu. Looks like it was a right wing rebellion against a leftie government. That's the best that can be hoped for when the state and the people have become polarized. See also: Let them eat cake!

I think a 'fascist military coup' against a democratically elected government is what many would say, but no matter.  The end result was a fascist state that lasted until 1976. Franco didn't kill 'outsiders' unless 'anyone who opposes us' counts as an outsider.  They were his own countrymen and he borrowed Stuka bombers from his buddy Hitler to bomb towns and slaughter non-combatants.

All I wanted to point out was that murder of your own people was the pursuit of the left, but not the right (which was what you stated) was wrong.  I can't see how what Franco's nationalists did in starting the Spanish Civil War doesn't prove that point.

Edited: for clarity

I think the Catalans, Galicians, and Basque people would disagree.  

When it comes to Spain, countrymen is a loose term.  Some Spanish, i've met don't see why Portugal should be independent, their reasoning, is that if it's on the Iberian peninsula it's part of Spain.

In general the socialists and the national socialists (nazi) are as the name suggests very similar ideologies, with small but fundimental diffences in who they target as an enemy.  I agree with you both are evil.