Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The only true way I know that we've returned to a bull market is when my friends and coworkers come out of the woodwork to tell me about how they're going to start mining bitcoin with their old GPUs. I still don't actually know anyone else IRL who has ever bought bitcoin as an investment. But they'll spend hours and hours researching how to mine it, despite me telling them that they're wasting their time.

What are you doing then, besides shooting down the ideas of others?

By the way, I am not too much interested in the idea of mining bitcoin, but I can understand why some folks may want to get into mining as a medium to also learn more about the technicals behind BTC.  But, in terms of pure investing, or speculating, it is probably better to develop DCA buy strategies and to use fiat earned in regular life for that and to create a target accumulation, such as 1% to 10% of your investments or some other personally tailored investment goal.

Well it depends on what your goal is. As you say, if someone is interested in learning about the technicals, then I think that's great. But the point I'm making is that I see largely the same people spring up every couple years when there's a bull market with their mining ideas, and of course their end goal is just to make quick money. When in reality if they're interested in investing, they should straight up buy bitcoin as part of a balanced investment portfolio instead of wasting time, energy, and PC hardware to join some pool and generate a penny shaving, and probably get scammed in the process.

You seem to be just shitting on newbies for the hell of it.  Of course, you are suggesting that there is some kind of pattern with a desire to mine and to print money, but I find the desire to mine (and possibly contribute to the bitcoin space) to be a whole hell of a lot less offensive than people wanting to get into alt coins and icos and all kinds of that bullshit.  So, I have a hard time understanding what is your criticism of people merely making the wrong choice in terms of how to spend their time in the bitcoin space, because in the end, miners are needed, too.  

Furthermore, people are going to have all kinds of weird ideas about how to take their own individual approach to getting involved in bitcoin, and sometimes they just have to work through some of those ideas on their own rather than just following what others are doing or even taking advice from a more experienced bitcoiner (presumably youself).

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[JayJuanGee]

LET IT BE

That is nearly ridiculous logic that you are citing there, mic.  Get your team to help you to see the light.

Recall that in September 2017 bitcoin was in the midst - and even tail end of a bull market, and currently bitcoin seems to be in a bear market, so the price dynamics, and therefore momentum, are much different.

You're right, if we can have a similar effect right now as we had in September 2017 (despite the bull market at the time) we'll be having a much more violent bull run through 2019! Weeeeee

Disclaimer: I do not know what the fuck I am talking about. This is not investment advise Or is it.

Seems like the vast majority of HODLers would prefer for the BTC price to just go shooting up, let's say to $10k and further, but those kinds of shooting up scenarios seem way in the minority of possible outcomes, under current BTC price momentum dynamics.

I know that members, such as Majormax, remind us that we have to look at both price movements and the passage of time, and surely I had not agreed with him in terms of what I had considered prematurely calling a bear market or seeming to overly presume how much downtrend has to occur, but there are a variety of aspects of his assertions that seem to make a lot of sense, which I personally would conclude that getting above $6k and staying above $6k for a decent amount of time (including staving off a few challenges to support at that level) would give us some decent ability to conclude that the bear market may be over (meaning the bottom is in).   Of course, I will be willing to consider other possibilities, as well, but tentatively I am still presuming that BTC is in a bear market based on current dynamics (which means that the odds for down are greater than the odds for up), and of course, if BTC prices continue to defy such odds that are against it, and continues to go up, then we might be able to view the market dynamics as something other than bear.

[goldkingcoiner]

Have you ever heard of a cup in a cup in a cup?

Looks reasonable to me, although I would be very surprised if we stayed above $6k in a sustainable way before late 2019.  $6k is our ceiling in my mind for most of 2019 - and we may not even get there. 

No thats just a wild guess. But the first cup has already formed nicely. Handle in a week maybe?

[Bitcoinaire]

Let the FOMO ensue 👀



https://twitter.com/KingThies/status/1075932038031642625

Edit to add: Capitulation in the making.

[JayJuanGee]

Have you ever heard of a cup in a cup in a cup?

Looks reasonable to me, although I would be very surprised if we stayed above $6k in a sustainable way before late 2019.  $6k is our ceiling in my mind for most of 2019 - and we may not even get there. 

No thats just a wild guess. But the first cup has already formed nicely. Handle in a week maybe?

We have certainly had those cups in cups several times in the past, but surely no guarantee of such.  What seems to happen, sometimes when BTC is on a bit of a tear in one direction (up), then there will be a series of small corrections (of perhaps less than 25%), and then at some, somewhat unexpected, point, there will be like a great correction of more than 30% and sometimes even 50% before resuming up.   that is kind of assuming that our current price dynamics is reversing from bear to bull (which is a pretty BIG assumption, currently).

[HairyMaclairy]

Have you ever heard of a cup in a cup in a cup?

Looks reasonable to me, although I would be very surprised if we stayed above $6k in a sustainable way before late 2019.  $6k is our ceiling in my mind for most of 2019 - and we may not even get there.  

No thats just a wild guess. But the first cup has already formed nicely. Handle in a week maybe?

Public holidays are generally down periods for Bitcoin so Christmas should in theory be a crash.  But we are coming off a 200 MA Weekly bounce with momentum.  So we have a strong bear signal and a strong bull signal, meaning that Bitcoin will probably spike all over the place on heavy volume.  NFI where it all ends up.  I'm hodling and sitting this shit out and just enjoying the ride. 

[goldkingcoiner]

Still, if this cup pans out, and I am guessing from the fibonnaci lines that the handle breakout might be at around ~$3771-$3780 which bring in a ~$650 spike, judging from the cup bottom and the estimated breakout point to 4400+( which is also incidentally the  second top fibonnaci line, calculated from the high on nov. 29th.)

[jbreher]

Are we starting to see people FOMO'ing?

Have no fucking idea. I am with my date tonight  and I am confused where should I concentrate more my btc or naked girl laying beside me.

Go all in

She said no.   

There's a lesson in there somewhere.

[Paashaas]

Merge-mining hashrate of RSK increased from 5% to >40% = ~14EHs.

Impressive development.

https://stats.rsk.co/

[Paashaas]

WSJ Hints the Bakkt Bitcoin trading platform is likely to get the regulatory approval.

https://blockchainreporter.net/2018/12/20/bakkt-update-wsj-hints-the-bitcoin-trading-platform-is-likely-to-get-the-regulatory-approval/

[Paashaas]

I like sub-satoshi payments with LN

The winning price was the first of several 1 millisatoshi bids (one hundred billionth of one bitcoin). At the time of writing, the US-dollar denominated value of the bid is approximately $0.000000037.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/sold-lightning-network-art-auction-goes-lowest-bidder/

Millisatoshis? So Bitcorn can easily go to over $1m now without running into the problem that 1 Sat = 1 Cent. Weeeeeeeee?

Bitcoin will blow away every payment system on Earth by orders of magnitudes.

 

[jbreher]

Heres a good question for the WO: Who uses automated trading tools and which ones?

I wouldn't trust any bought automated trading tools (not just because of potential backdoors or keyloggers). Selling them implies that whoever made them doesn't know what the fuck they're doing. If the bot was any good it'd only be a matter of time until they'd be filthy rich, so giving others access to it would eat into their profits.

Hmm. Don't know if I buy that.

The type of trading I have been doing is strictly mechanical. The algorithm is simplicity instantiated. Described somewhere upthread in a few paragraphs. It would be pretty simple to code such a thing up and let it loose, giving the exact same results as my manual management.

Of course, the bot will not respond appropriately to any anomalous exchange events, which seem to happen once or twice a year.

[NJB18]

It seems to me that bitcoin will only rise when most people believe it's going down and shorts are more than longs. This way market makers earn more.

[Phil_S]

stamp, what the... ?

[HI-TEC99]

stamp, what the... ?

They don't call it bearstamp for nothing.

[HairyMaclairy]

stamp, what the... ?

488 looks like a wash trade or bear whale eating a wall in a single bite.

[realr0ach]

Dec 31, 2018 release date:

https://www.moddb.com/mods/h3sw

[bitcoinminer42]

Think we might see a nice cup and handle formation by mid january?

yes... a big fat reverse one 

[realr0ach]

Short Micgoossen's bitcoin funded relationship:

https://www.reddit.com/r/MGTOW/comments/a8525m/almost_10000_retweets_and_over_22000_likes_this/

[bitserve]

CoinATM end of year stats update: 4061 crypto ATMs installed worldwide


I don't think much will change in the days remaining till end of year, so here is my review of the stats of installed Bitcoin ATMs.

The rate of new installation kept stable for the past months and while it has not reached the exact number required for a full doubling from 1 Jan (2076) to 31 Dec (4061+) it is almost there. It can be considered a doubling. Same happened in both 2016 and 2017.

2019 will probably NOT complete a doubling but more of a linear increase unless something exceptional (ie: a clear bull market or a new major player in the sector) happen that triples current rate of new installations. Nevertheless, the current density of ATMs worldwide is somewhat acceptable/good considering the level of Bitcoin adoption we are at. The presence in major capitals is quite good.

The fees are still quite high for the hardcore bitcoiner to consider a frequent usage though. The convenience might be ok for new users or in the case of a real "need" such as obtaining local FIAT in the destination country when you travel. Fees of around 10% are quite common while there are others with much lower or even higher fees.

I have not seen any case of progressive fee, which would be the way to to incentivise increased usage. Current fees are a deterrent for high amount users, making the online exchange's lower fees much more attractive. As I say, I would consider current fees ok for up to $50 or $100 but some sort of increasing discount the more the amount transacted is would be needed. It would benefit both the users and the operators.

It is possible to envision that IF Bitcoin adoption grows enough (more than one order of magnitude) during the following years some innovator conventional ATM manufacturers would even include crypto functionality into their products. That would be critical adoption milestone that could make the crypto ATM stats skyrocket. I don't see that happening in less than 3-5 years.

The future looks bright also in this field of Bitcoin industry. Infrastructure in general has never been so good with tens of exchanges, thousands of crypto ATM's, variety of hardware wallets and third party custodial offerings, etc.

Fundamentals are there and improving day by day. Let's see what new major milestones gets achieved during next year. Sooner or later price will follow too.

Cheers!