Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8

We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy. 

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[gentlemand]

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8

It's rather easy to go from sod all to less sod all. It's a bit more of an ask beyond that.

All the same I'm very interested to see what alts get up to if BTC goes to sleep.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8

We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy. 

Sure, but markets without obvious fundamentals trade the same. The absolute numbers are irrelevant here.

[goldkingcoiner]

Dumperino to ~3771 now official. We have broken past the 3923 support. Man am I glad I got out at 4052. If this stretches out we got a cup and handle situation. I am in at ~3771



Really hope my cup^3 hypothesis actually comes true. But I wouldn't bet on it. I say we bump into the ~4410 resistance and down again from there.

You got out of your 80x at $4,052?  

I am thinking that you must have made a killing on that one, and surely the kind of "accidental" trade that could fund a whole fucking hell of a lot of losses, depending on how much you are "gambling" each time that you hedge.

To some extent you are striking me as a bit of a high risk taker, yet if you pull some of your profits out of your trading fund (such as what you made in the "accidental" 80x long play), then you could still be considerably profitable (beating the averages) on a lot of short-term plays.  One of the problems with shorter-term players seems to be that they tend to get greedy, and don't strategically pull enough off of the table and keep it off the table, so they end up losing their previous profits in some subsequent play because they erroneously presume that they can beat the market with their presumptively superior wits.

I would agree with you 100%. And I would not really call myself risky. I don't usually fomo like this. But big amounts change a person. And I can call myself lucky that it did not burn me on my ass.

Do you have a practice of pulling some of your profits out of your "trading" funds? 

So, for example, let's say that you have a trading portfolio of about 5 BTC, and you bet about 20% of your trading portfolio on one bet, which ended up being the "accidental" 80x that would amount to 1 bitcoin at $3,400 and then you pulled closed such bet at $4,050. That would be almost  $52,000 ($650X80)  in profits, minus fees - which could also be considered to be about 13.44 bitcoins ($52,000/$3,870), at current prices.

Under the scenario that I outline, you could take more than half of your profits off of the table and still be doubling your trading stash.  You can still be prudent with your trading stash and make a lot of money from it because it has more than doubled.

Of course, your circumstances could be somewhat different, depending on the amount of your initial trading stash that you bet, and the smaller the amount, let's say for example that you only bet 5% of your trading stash (which would be only .25 BTC), then your profits would be only 1/4 of the amounts that I already outlined, yet I still think that you could take a decent amount of those profits off of the table (let's say 50%-ish based on the extraordinary amounts of profits) and still be in a real decent place, trading stash wise, without engaging in too much gambling with your profits, while preserving your principle and adding to it in various ways.

That is what I mean by "prudent" versus "risky" and I am kind of questioning the extent to which you may be leaning towards the risky side with your current perspective (which is a personality trait that can be refined with practice and thought).

Yes I have several portfolios. Trading, hodling, tether (when bear market, I may secure a part or everything, depending on how bad the market is crashing. But usually its hodl). Anything beyond a certain amount goes from trading into my hodl stash.

[JayJuanGee]

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8

We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy.  

Sure, but markets without obvious fundamentals trade the same. The absolute numbers are irrelevant here.

Do you believe that fundamentals of BTC and market dynamics are similar to early 2015?  Do you believe that charts match up, and so we are going to experience similar dynamics in early 2019 as we saw in early 2015?  

Sure, it is possible, but how much weight are you going to give to such a scenario?  How much you going to bet on such a scenario to play out?  Personally, I would not bet much on that, and even betting anywhere close to 50% on such a scenario playing out seems quite imprudent to me, but hey, to each their own.

By the way, I am not suggesting that Bitcoin does not have a fairly heavy burden to get back above $6k and to stay above $6k, I am just questioning the likelihood of painting either doom and gloom scenarios or flat price scenarios for BTC that drag out a long time based on prior charts and attempting to place a lot of credence in previous patterns.

[HairyMaclairy]

Hey fuck you Brave

https://twitter.com/tomscott/status/1076160882873380870

[HairyMaclairy]

It sure looks the same to me Jay.

[Last of the V8s]

Hey fuck you Brave

https://twitter.com/tomscott/status/1076160882873380870

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8

We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy.  

Sure, but markets without obvious fundamentals trade the same. The absolute numbers are irrelevant here.

Do you believe that fundamentals of BTC and market dynamics are similar to early 2015?  Do you believe that charts match up, and so we are going to experience similar dynamics in early 2019 as we saw in early 2015?  

Sure, it is possible, but how much weight are you going to give to such a scenario?  How much you going to bet on such a scenario to play out?  Personally, I would not bet much on that, and even betting anywhere close to 50% on such a scenario playing out seems quite imprudent to me, but hey, to each their own.

By the way, I am not suggesting that Bitcoin does not have a fairly heavy burden to get back above $6k and to stay above $6k, I am just questioning the likelihood of painting either doom and gloom scenarios or flat price scenarios for BTC that drag out a long time based on prior charts and attempting to place a lot of credence in previous patterns.

Fundamentals of BTC can not be properly quantified right now, hence a market without "obvious" fundamentals.

In stocks you can calculate (or just read) almost all the data you need to project revenue and profits and thus a band for your ROI.
With crypto this is completely and utterly impossible right now. Which is also why the market is doing its usual technicals driven ups and downs with no obvious walls given by fundamental analysis.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Hey fuck you Brave

https://twitter.com/tomscott/status/1076160882873380870

Been wondering how they could donate to any and every site. Guess that's how.

[jojo69]

Hey fuck you Brave

https://twitter.com/tomscott/status/1076160882873380870

jesus

what a shit show

[Last of the V8s]

Hey fuck you Brave

https://twitter.com/tomscott/status/1076160882873380870

jesus

what a shit show

https://twitter.com/J9Roem/status/942857701662609409
this journo's been on about it for a year now

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

#SMARTkids ??

[marcus_of_augustus]

... micg ... don't be this guy on xmas spirits ... prbly nocoiner ofcourse

[marcus_of_augustus]

why do they close the toilets before the trains  ??

[El duderino_]

... micg ... don't be this guy on xmas spirits ... prbly nocoiner ofcourse

*meh

@x-mass i’m surrounded by NOCOINERS, already know the topic@ the table, but i don’t care.... i Will stand my ground

I know i’ll Be good drunk on x-mass but not as that picture your posting there....

[El duderino_]

why do they close the toilets before the trains  ??

Only thing i see there really is a HATless nocoiner that can’t bear a drink

[El duderino_]

And now you posting that..... i feel like going to the toilet as well, and dump my preHODLsleep load for the night
“Maybe to much info”
LoL

[JayJuanGee]

It sure looks the same to me Jay.

Of course, might look the same, in terms of the history, and that is fine, yet my question remains how much value you going to place in the future playing out the same way?  And, are you going to put your money on that?  Description is one thing, prediction is another thing, so my main point remains that there is danger to put too much weight on predictive value and even making dumb-ass assertion that you know how the future is going to play out, even if there are high odds of such.  Maybe you will assign 80% to such occurrence, and maybe someone else like me, might assign 45% to such occurrence.  In the end, I am not going to stop criticizing folks who make proclamations that seem to be assigning (or even implying such) too high probabilities to such scenarios, even if such scenarios actually play out or even if I also believe that such scenarios are the most likely of outcomes.

[yefi]

The good thing about the long gone exchanges is that you can use them to fill the blanks without no way for the HMRC to prove otherwise. Of course the "filling" must be reasonable and coherent with all the rest of data available.

If you don't have the records, I believe the wisest and most conservative approach is to use zero-cost basis for any missing bitcoin acquisitions. If you're fabricating trade data instead, that could land you in hot water in the future. HMRC have up to 20 years to raise a tax assessment if they believe there's a deliberate attempt to evade tax, and in 20 years the tools available to them may be rather sophisticated (unless the world is a crisp according to Roach).

I can imagine any number of scenarios where a hostile lawyer being able to enter one's historical receipts for beer might be unwelcome.

Note to self: Jojo's grocery list consists entirely of beer.