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Question: October Closing Price:
<$59,000 - 10 (18.5%)
$59,000-$60,000 - 1 (1.9%)
$60,001-$61,000 - 1 (1.9%)
$61,001-$62,000 - 2 (3.7%)
$62,001-$63,000 - 7 (13%)
$63,001-$64,000 - 6 (11.1%)
$64,001-$65,000 - 4 (7.4%)
$65,001-$66,000 - 3 (5.6%)
$66,001-$67,000 - 2 (3.7%)
$67,001-$68,000 - 1 (1.9%)
>$68,000 - 17 (31.5%)
Total Voters: 54

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25468116 times)
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LFC_Bitcoin
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December 18, 2018, 03:44:55 PM

Get ready for the January dip.


Kinda like the november pump that never came?

Statistically insignificant

There was also no January dip in 2014.

Which if you’re looking for past performance as an indicator of future price movements will tell us that we won’t have a Jan dip this time.

Jan 2014 - No dump as sellers exhausted after massive price decrease after ATH
Jan 2019 - No dump as sellers exhausted after massive price decrease after ATH?
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December 18, 2018, 03:45:59 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Lambie Slayer (1)

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts Kiss

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.
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December 18, 2018, 03:47:12 PM

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December 18, 2018, 03:53:25 PM

Get ready for the January dip.


Kinda like the november pump that never came?

Statistically insignificant

There was also no January dip in 2014.

Yes but, it was tumbling down from the ATH:

I am pretty sure that in the last three years the annual absolute low was in January. All around two weeks in.

In 2014 and this one we had a December ATH to tumble down from.

So unless Bakkt does pick things up, maybe the few weeks post-year end will be the final spike down.  The end of the year is a taxation point, so it's perhaps an oddly diptastic month for a reason. I am not a bear, but it is why I am wary of calling the bottom yet.
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December 18, 2018, 03:55:48 PM

Here is an interesting opinion of Jim Rogers (which I completely disagree with, but i always like to listen to what opponents say):

https://youtu.be/tNSXWkApxU8?t=410

He basically says that if bitcoin/crypto would be successful, government can simply abolish it like England abolished scrip in the 30ies by making trading NOT in Bank of England notes (pounds) a TREASON.
Don't simply dismiss this, hopefully, wrong notion because he is an old fogie since this is Jim Rogers, again, who happens to know about commodity markets quite a bit.
He is not short, but not long either and acknowledges that he might be wrong in his skepticism.

I think that he is wrong because bitcoin provides a standard/reference point, is apolitical and not 'owned' by a particular government plus could accelerate the commerce in due course.
Being neutral would make it resistant to the moves that he described, unless there is cooperation among G20.
What do you guys think?


I think it would be more likely that the elites are hoarding all of the bitcoin for themselves. Historically, the elites have hoarded gold while shoving their worthless paper fiat down our throats. I see no reason for that to change in the age of bitcoin. Look at Jamie Dimon, George Soros, etc. publicly denouncing bitcoin, while quietly buying.

Meanwhile, the unwashed masses:
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December 18, 2018, 04:06:38 PM

However, my own story is that I started buying at $1,200 in late 2013

You are not doing much to discredit my notion that you and Micgoossens are the dumbest money in the thread by stating that you bought at the absolute top of the last bubble, held all the way down to $200, watched the price then rise to $20k, sold zero, then watched it crater to $3k.  Yes, you are technically still in the black...by sheer luck or random coincidence.

You don't have much room to talk. You, presumably being smart money, have watched the multiple rises and falls of bitcoin from the sidelines.
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December 18, 2018, 04:14:24 PM


I would dispute his take on the fungibility of bitcoin, and certain "cryptos".
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December 18, 2018, 04:17:33 PM

We're still at accumulation prices. Nowhere close to FOMO prices yet.

This is the time when you should recommend to people you actually care about to get into Bitcoin. Not just buy but understand it. (ie...send them a link to the white paper).

When the price shoots up and you start getting e-mails from people asking if they should get into "crypto", politely point them to some videos about the Federal Reserve, Austrian economics, etc. Then if they're still interested (knowing they get it)...then show them the white paper.



...has been on sale at Amazon for <$14. Everyone should buy a few and hand them out to nocoiners or altcoiners who show potential. It makes a good Christmas gift!
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December 18, 2018, 04:24:58 PM

We're still at accumulation prices. Nowhere close to FOMO prices yet.

This is the time when you should recommend to people you actually care about to get into Bitcoin. Not just buy but understand it. (ie...send them a link to the white paper).

When the price shoots up and you start getting e-mails from people asking if they should get into "crypto", politely point them to some videos about the Federal Reserve, Austrian economics, etc. Then if they're still interested (knowing they get it)...then show them the white paper.



...has been on sale at Amazon for <$14. Everyone should buy a few and hand them out to nocoiners or altcoiners who show potential. It makes a good Christmas gift!

Thats a good one! But whats the chance that a no-coiner is going to want to read it? Most of them are already dead set on the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme.... All I hear is tulips this, pyramid that...

I put a stop loss just below -REDACTED-. No worries boys. I got this.

Congrats. Smiley

Thank you!

EVERYONE PAY ATTENTION TO ME!

HOLY SHIT. I ACCIDENTALLY LONGED AT 80x instead of 8x AT 3237. Talk about a lucky day! Of course I noticed my mistake but by the time I could correct it, we were impaled on a fast green dildo!



 Not bad.  So the beer's on you tonight?


Maybe not tonight. I am hanging on to this long for a while like a bad gambler with an alcohol addiction. Still kind of hoping for another pumperino. Bollinger band constricting, Palms are sweaty
Knees weak, arms are heavy
Vomit on my sweater already
Mom's spaghetti

Wait, what? So you opened an 80x margin long by mistake, got the extreme luck that the price went in your favor and instead of thank the gods and close it and reopen with a more sane leverage you decide to... what? Let it go until you get rekt?
y house gone

More like: Oops, I accidentally got a house.... Well, not a house, but definitely a nice new car.
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December 18, 2018, 04:41:18 PM



Thats a good one! But whats the chance that a no-coiner is going to want to read it? Most of them are already dead set on the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme.... All I hear is tulips this, pyramid that...



Thank you!



Wait, what? So you opened an 80x margin long by mistake, got the extreme luck that the price went in your favor and instead of thank the gods and close it and reopen with a more sane leverage you decide to... what? Let it go until you get rekt?
y house gone

More like: Oops, I accidentally got a house.... Well, not a house, but definitely a nice new car.
Not if you don't close the long. Reopening with half the profits at 40x would be quite a hefty gamble, but sensible. What you're doing implies a mentality that'll lead to more losses than you're prepared to handle. I hope for you that I'm wrong and wish you all the best, but damn.
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December 18, 2018, 04:43:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

8 Bitcoin Achievements That Prove 2018 Was Not Entirely Crap

https://cryptobriefing.com/8-bitcoin-achievements-2018/
Quote
1. Segwit Adoption
Segregated Witness was a Bitcoin protocol upgrade that was activated in the summer of 2017. The upgrade enabled a greater number of transactions in Bitcoin blocks.

...

2. Institutional Adoption
We’ve seen players such as Fidelity Investments, Yale University, the New York Stock Exchange, and Square Inc. show interest in the space.

...


3. Lightning Adoption
Bitcoin now has almost $2 million in collateral on the network and the network has gone from 0 to 4400 nodes over the course of the last 12 months.

...

4. Hashrate Increase
The hashrate on the Bitcoin network has increased by almost 60% in 2018

...

5. Code Development
The development of Schnorr Signatures, as well as fixing and disclosing multiple critical bugs successfully, are two major steps in Bitcoin’s development.

...

6. More Unique Users
Bitcoin adoption is often measured as the number of unique addresses, and that has increased by 50% in 2018.

...

7. Shaking Competition
after the ICO craze of 2017, Bitcoin has seen its market dominance increase 16% over the course of 2018.

...

8. Lower Fees
the average fee per transaction has still fallen approximately 97%, which makes participation more user friendly for new entrants.
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December 18, 2018, 04:54:27 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Lambie Slayer (1)

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts Kiss

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

I don't see a long, lull in the market either. Prices are very low already and why should we be so lucky to accumulate cheap coins for 12+ months? Call me crazy, but I see the possibility for a double bubble still occurring in 2019.
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December 18, 2018, 05:21:07 PM

Who Is Buying Crypto Right Now?



https://coinninja.com/news/who-is-buying-crypto-right-now/

I think everyone is filling the bags.
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December 18, 2018, 05:31:29 PM


Here's some light "Bitcoin contrarian" relief from the sweat of the current "rally" Wink

https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2018/10/05/answers-from-the-author-for-winifred-posters-virtual-currency-course/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/9we6ws/bitcoin_criticism_attack_of_the_50_foot/

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December 18, 2018, 05:53:18 PM

... a double bubble ... occurring in 2019.

Perhaps ‘The Bubble’.....

Greatest wealth transfer ever.
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December 18, 2018, 06:02:45 PM

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts Kiss

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

I don't see a long, lull in the market either. Prices are very low already and why should we be so lucky to accumulate cheap coins for 12+ months? Call me crazy, but I see the possibility for a double bubble still occurring in 2019.

You mean first bubble is 6k$ and second 40k$?
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December 18, 2018, 06:04:48 PM

Who Is Buying Crypto Right Now?



https://coinninja.com/news/who-is-buying-crypto-right-now/

I think everyone is filling the bags.

I hate graphs that cut most of the bars to make the increase look much more impressive than it really is.

Still good increase (15-20% since January)....
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December 18, 2018, 06:14:47 PM

I am thinking one of the differences during the next bull market is that there won't be no ICO craze as in this last one. That's surely a positive thing that will make everything much more sane. Not so good for ethereum though.

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything barely useful or profitable already?
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December 18, 2018, 06:18:12 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I am thinking one of the differences during the next bull market is that there won't be no ICO craze as in this last one. That's surely a positive thing that will make everything much more sane. Not so good for ethereum though.

Btw, have ANY of the ICO's actually delivered anything useful or profitable already?
I wouldn't be so sure about that. It would probably at least be much more cut throat though, as most people should've realized that buzzword filled toilet whitepaper doesn't mean shit. That could also imply more absurd gains for those that do make the cut, with even steeper losses for full blown trash.
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December 18, 2018, 06:20:08 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If correct we should keep rising, slowly at first, but gaining speed and volume on the way out and see 6k  around Jan 12 2019. The cautious bull herd seems to be taking for granted they will get a nice long year to accumulate cheap coins like 2015 and then they can all be millionaires since they neglected to do this 4 years ago during the last great crypto winter, I dont think this will happen at all. Only 21 million(ok like 17 million) coins and its pretty pie in the sky for everyone to think they are gonna get 12 months of bargain basement prices where they can just casually collect coins for peanuts while fundamentals grow stronger by the day.

Ideal scenario (gently and slowly light up your hopium pipes for this one and take a big inhale)........

after regaining 6k in mid January, Bakt would then usher in another mini bubble to 40k followed by a quick and mild bear season testing 10k again, all before the next halving where the march to 250k starts Kiss

Ive been as bearish as the next guy. However, we should be given pause by the fact that everyone and his shoeshine boy are 100% certain that we're heading to $1,500-$2,500 and will endure 12+ months of crypto winter.

Yeah, I also call it a "reverse shoe-shine boy".
Bear market is probably finished when least likely participant is calling for it's continuation.
Case in point: marketwatch inverviewing a 13-year old "bear cub".
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-pretty-much-dead-says-teenage-crypto-phenom-2018-12-14
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