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Question: Will the Bitcoin Futures ETF be approved in the U.S. on Oct. 18?
Yes - 49 (57.6%)
No - 20 (23.5%)
Maybe - 16 (18.8%)
Total Voters: 85

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25460936 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
bitserve
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December 17, 2018, 07:34:20 PM

47 people got the poll wrong so far.

The answer is "you don't know."

You don't get it, you intentionally vote no because you are always wrong.

I intentionally voted no because I am hedging. Either I am right, or I am rich. Well, not quite... but you get the point.
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December 17, 2018, 07:36:23 PM

3500 didn't hold for too long - rally continues to 3600? Wee!

Protip: Using anything other than Bitstamp price is not going to win you any merits Wink

I'm not here to "win merits" dude  Grin

Give them to me. I was like you once... Now I am a merit whore.
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December 17, 2018, 07:36:47 PM

2 of the brightest sparks saying they're stupid Tongue
hmmm
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December 17, 2018, 07:40:12 PM

A late good morning Bitcoinland.

Nice to see a pleasant little rise... currently $3618USD/$4845CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Go Bitcoin go (continuing upward).

OMFG 3600 and no signs of stopping! Weee!  Wink

I'll try again. As futile as that may be...

Bitstamp BTC/USD pair is the 'official' price we use on this thread Wink

If you need to use any single exchange, indeed it is Bitstamp.

I prefer using an index based on multiple exchanges.

For this, I prefer Bitcoinaverage because it includes the most exchanges worldwide weighted to volume, excluding zero-fee exchanges. It's also the one that is used as a reference price by most ATM operators in Toronto and in every OTC transaction I've done in the last few years.
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December 17, 2018, 07:47:40 PM

2 of the brightest sparks saying they're stupid Tongue
hmmm

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December 17, 2018, 07:48:24 PM

OMFG 3600 and no signs of stopping! Weee!  Wink

3585.7

what are you on?
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December 17, 2018, 07:49:06 PM

I call upon:



Cheap word ..... but let it happen Wink
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December 17, 2018, 07:50:39 PM

adoption is not a thing
bitcoin is not for the poor
or the stupid

 Dammit I'm out on both counts... okay I'll sell now.


If one thing is certain.... Then its that your everything but not stupid
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December 17, 2018, 07:52:06 PM
Merited by bitserve (1)

I have decided to write about what have been my errors during the past bull run and subsequent downtrend till now.
...<good stuff>...
I am writing this as advice for my future self, but hope it gets useful to someone else. Will continue.

What I learned this blowoff top cycle:

When selling enough to cover Your Personal Lambo[tm], make the increment to cover the taxes part of the same tx. Lest you be required to part with more Corn for such necessity that you otherwise would. Worst case, you've got a bigger pile of stinky fiat than you need.
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December 17, 2018, 07:57:34 PM

Had a great laugh when i saw this head-line in Dutch media  Cheesy

''Bitcoin is good as dead''.




Haha read it as well

And about the Dutch BTC famillie etc
Lot of dumb news
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December 17, 2018, 08:01:25 PM

As soon as the bankers decide they have shaken the tree for all it's worth we will be seeing a pump with corresponding reports on all the regular news channels about how there is only 21 million ever. That word will get out when they want it dished out to the unwashed masses and then the sheeple will FOMO and if your not in by then then you have missed the last next chance to get multi times profit.

ftfy
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December 17, 2018, 08:20:33 PM

I never touch alts because I don’t believe in them. And I can make bad decisions if I don’t believe in what I am trading.

I’ve got a stash of XRP, nowhere near as much as my bitcoin HODLINGS but would be nice to see it moon in the future.

I don't see any considerable ecosystem benefits of various shitcoins pumpening, even if my personal holdings might go up because of such pumpenings.

I understand that it is likely inevitable that several shitcoins are going to pump in the coming years, and that is why we cannot have nice things, and at minimum it will take 20 years for a decent portion of the population to recognize the differentiating value in bitcoin, and more realistically it will take longer than 20 years, perhaps approaching 50 years (I will either be dead or close to dead by then, so if I am posting in this thread, then there is some kind of AI going on or my account has been hacked).   
I don't get why you see the differentiating value and the potential value proposition of altcoins as mutually exclusive.

Your characterization of my position seems a bit off.

I consider that there is a strong pull in BTC's value proposition in terms of the creation of sound money.  No other coin comes even close to that even though with the passage of time, there could be some coins that come close to that, yet a vast majority of my problem with various other coins is that they attempt to suggest that either there are defects in bitcoin that they resolve or that they are superior than bitcoin in various ways that suggest superior sound money as compared with bitcoin.

Sure, some of the coins talk about technical improvements and other likely less significant mumbo jumbo that could, in the longer term play out to be useful to humanity, and may also be absorbed into bitcoin at the primary layer or  some other layer... Yet, for me, the sound money aspect remains the distinction of bitcoin, not the other various quasi-centralized distractions of other coins.  

So, yeah other coins are likely providing various  values, but other coins is not the topic of this thread, so it is totally appropriate to completely and cursorily dismiss them all as shit coins, even if they may be providing some various alleged kinds of values.  Who gives a shit?  

The topic of the thread is bitcoin, and as I mentioned one of the differentiating values that bitcoin provides is sound money, and frequently, I see that either on purpose or accidentally, people get caught up in various other value narratives, and whether those other value narratives works out or not, again, who gives a shit, except that a vast majority of other coins try to proclaim themselves as superior to bitcoin or replacing some kind of meaningful bitcoin function, when they do not in terms of soundness of money analysis.

Bitcoin will be the future currency, where equity 2.0 will be given in the form of altcoins that are traded against Bitcoin.

Seems likely, yes.

Although I guess the current market makes it extremely hard to see this future, I don't think that altcoins are generally speaking shitcoins. Even if some 99% of them in fact are right now.

Maybe, but again, who cares?

If there are some reasons to buy a little alt coin here and there, then anyone can make those kinds of choices to invest into the various other projects, and there could be some value there, of course.

Companies won't really be able to tie their equity to Bitcoin due to its volatility, but they could very well fix a shitcoin to their annual, or at some point even real-time revenue, operating costs, profits, inventory, etc., which will vastly improve the tools available to value investors who now have to rely on quarterly reports that may or may not be cooked. Just to name one tiny future niche that will be fulfilled by blockchain eventually.

Yes there are more than 7 billion people, so a lot of various use cases that may or may not connect to bitcoin, of course.

The amount of shitcoins right now is no different from the amount of shitsites during the dotcom bubble (probably much less since we're nowhere near peak). Doesn't mean that everything was shit.

I doubt that I am saying that every other coin is shit, and of course, we are stuck with some necessity to discuss the dynamics of various alt coins because there is some connection in terms of money movement in the BTC space, and likely some symbiotic relationship with the back and forth of the alt coin price movements and even pumps, dumbs, and scams.  Yet, I don't see any reason to get into long discussions of the various value propositions of shitcoins.  Take it to some other thread except to the extent that it either relates to BTC or BTC price dynamics, no?

Same story with every bubble, keep an open mind or you'll miss the bigger picture due to the hordes of incompetence, money grabs and outright scams.

Are you suggesting that I am not keeping an open mind, merely because I don't want to clutter my mind with distractions into the investigation of possible value propositions of more than 2,000 other crypto projects, aka shit coins, or maybe I am supposed to focus on the top 10 or top 20 or look at some kind of criteria to assess the extent to which these various shit coins might be offering some kind of value?  

Let's say for example there are 5-10 good alt coin projects that end up either playing a very significant role in the crypto space or supplanting various BTC use cases because of their superiority.  Why does it matter that I start to pay attention now (and study them) or wait 5-10 years when such supplantation becomes more obvious?  Am I missing out on something?  Knowledge?  Investment opportunity?  What am I missing, exactly?  Don't I get enough exposure to learning about them, just through osmosis with my already ongoing involvement in paying attention to bitcoin?
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December 17, 2018, 08:26:52 PM

Ok, from the poll it seems that most people thinks we have not yet reached the bottom. So... maybe we have?

I would say all the weak hands are already gone. I would be more worried about weak whales now.

Talking about whales... it has been some time since Bitcoin doesn't have any new whale, has it?

I mean, people like Tim Draper during the past bear market, etc....

Any new one this year?


I thought that we have been saying that all the weak hands had been shook since about $10k, but for some reason, it seems that there are more weak hands that are shakeable.
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December 17, 2018, 08:27:40 PM

So how many hours or days until it go down again ?
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December 17, 2018, 08:28:53 PM

Had a great laugh when i saw this head-line in Dutch media  Cheesy

''Bitcoin is good as dead''.




That headline makes it sound like there will somehow be less bitcoins if large miners quid.
I think it's good to have more smaller independent miners.
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December 17, 2018, 08:30:07 PM

So how many hours or days until it go down again ?

Nowbody care’s and coiners don’t give a f***
#honeybadgerHODL
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December 17, 2018, 08:30:42 PM

So how many hours or days until it go down again ?

we'll see
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December 17, 2018, 08:31:32 PM

Ok, from the poll it seems that most people thinks we have not yet reached the bottom. So... maybe we have?

I would say all the weak hands are already gone. I would be more worried about weak whales now.

Talking about whales... it has been some time since Bitcoin doesn't have any new whale, has it?

I mean, people like Tim Draper during the past bear market, etc....

Any new one this year?


I thought that we have been saying that all the weak hands had been shook since about $10k, but for some reason, it seems that there are more weak hands that are shakeable.

I think the real weak hands are already left the market....
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December 17, 2018, 08:33:18 PM

BTW

F*** = BTC still this cheap??

@r0ach, you have all the time of the world, anytime you sell silver for BTC = a good trade like always!!
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December 17, 2018, 08:34:02 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

On an extremely volatile asset, assuming the price returns to the price at which you bought it, there is a trading strategy that makes a profit, as opposed to buying and holding (which would not profit in our example).
Here's a simple explanation https://blog.enigma.co/is-there-a-free-lunch-in-the-crypto-markets-c4aa331443f1

Imagine you start with $1,000, $500 in stock and $500 in cash. Suppose the stock halves in price the first day. This gives you a $750 portfolio with $250 in stock and $500 in cash. This is now lopsided in favor of cash. You rebalance by withdrawing $125 from the cash account to buy stock. This leaves you with a newly balanced mix of $375 in stock and $375 in cash.
Now repeat. The next day, let’s say the stock doubles in price. The $375 in stock jumps to $750. With the $375 in the cash account, you have $1,125…
… After a dramatic plunge, the stock’s price is back to where it began. A buy-and-hold investor would have no profit at all. Shannon’s investor has made $125.


If you do a little math, you'll find that transaction fees will kill this trading strategy.   If you pay transaction fees on the order of 0.2% (like crypto exchange fees), then balancing small moves like 5 or 10 percent will actually lose you money.  The asset has to be very volatile, and it's only worth rebalancing after big moves such as in the example.
Also, you're going to lose money in a bear market, unless you have the resources to hang on for years until the asset's price returns to where you bought it (if it ever does).

1) There are exchanges that charge zero for makers.
2) Bitcoin _is_ very volatile.
3) On a long enough time scale, there has never been a Bitcoin bear market. We'll hit one some day. Unlikely we have as of yet.
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