Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[whiteboy420]

She is right at what she is posting latter. But the first post you quoted is really silly. Bitcoin price is so unstable that will be way different next week not just a year from now. The point she is right about is that future trading makes bitcoin more stable. So growths and declines will be less sharp. Both ways will be more stable not just the way up. And that is good, money need to be as stable as can be.

The first serious derivative salvo arrived just at the death of the last bubble and since then it's been a steady decline into poo soup.

She's right to raise the possibility. That's unquestionably where most of the 'institutional investors' will prefer to go, but everything flies out the window if there's proper a bubble on or the sniff of one.

We need all this new guff to be present for another 2-3 complete cycles before its effects can be properly analysed. Until then it's just groping in the dark.

As posters have said, nobody can claim to know for sure, and that includes the most bullish cheerleaders....

So, there is indeed a possibility that BTC does not rise due to the next halving. There have only been 2 halvings so far, way too little for a certain judgment.  Price is always dependent on demand first and foremost... supply is important, but it is secondary.

The next bubble, if and when it happens , will have to be a function of a very large amount of fresh capital entering the market. The numbers required are much larger now than in previous bull phases.

Cost of production also plays a major part... Cutting production (per block) in half, while cost of production (per block) remains the same, could make mining unprofitable, unless the price rises.

Edit: Rephrased last sentence.

2020 lead up to halvening will be the most pathetic hopium cope by folks that cant into economics but somehow think the supply/demand discourse magic is an apodictic certainty.

Meanwhile corn will continue dooming

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[gentlemand]

The sh!ttiest line of the year just when the year was about to finish.

Less than a week to go until HE GETS THE KEYS.

I retreated into a bunker at the start of the week and am now living entirely on nutrient gel like in the Andromeda Strain. I also killed everyone I know to save them from ruin. And everyone I came across on my way to the bunker. They'll thank me later.

Maybe much later.

[HI-TEC99]

The sh!ttiest line of the year just when the year was about to finish.

Less than a week to go until HE GETS THE KEYS.

I retreated into a bunker at the start of the week and am now living entirely on nutrient gel like in the Andromeda Strain. I also killed everyone I know to save them from ruin. And everyone I came across on my way to the bunker. They'll thank me later.

Maybe much later.

There's nothing to worry about, the bullshit detector's on maximum.

[DireWolfM14]

Shitcoiner, nobody, attention-whore, segwit2x traitor and all-round ugly girl has opinions:

1/ there is a very real possibility the price of bitcoin does not go up after halving. for the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for bitcoin. most firms looking to speculate on bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying.

I don't get it, why is this a bad thing?  Aren't derivatives commonly set up for volatile assets?  If institutional investors focus on derivative markets is that bad for bitcoin?

[Icygreen]

I was watching Expanse for the first time.
There are some cultural references in that show that might apply here as well.

1. It is unlikely that bitcoin would be accepted by a majority of populace.

2. Accordingly, we need to care more about bitcoin and bitcoiner's than to actively proselytize.

3. Instead, we should try to create our own culture and facilitate this process. Others can join on their own (where and when THEY are ready).

4. Maybe, we should even try to introduce new words/language to help with culture distinction. This is already happening, slowly. Obviously, this is a spontaneous process.

Mind you, it looks like our culture is already under pressure:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6odnm_X0jI

Indeed youtube "crypto" is under attack. I've just noticed that the channel Ivan on Tech has been taken down. Over 211K followers with a daily podcast. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrYmtJBtLdtm2ov84ulV-yg
A very talented interviewer, shame.
Youtube is state owned it would seem, Guess we'll have to flush them down the same hole with FB. Censorship resistant platforms on the way!

[dragonvslinux]

[jojo69]

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

I certainly hope so.  The only thing that worries me is if the hashrate falls so precipitously that we have dangerous concentrations of hardware sitting on the sidelines.

[Searing]

...a 'black swan' event like Craig Wright being part of the Tulip Trust and actually getting keys..

I agree completely...that is why it is called a Black Swan Event.

However, I get a good shudder every time I think of such....the horror!

Funny, this likely would bother me more than a potential Asteroid hit on the planet in 100 years or such. Go figure.

I am curious however on how CW is gonna justify NOT getting the keys on 1/1/20 as he claims from the Tulip Fund.

https://news.bitcoin.com/23-days-until-a-bonded-courier-supposedly-delivers-keys-to-8-billion-in-btc/

Of course just to be an ass and contrary, if you would have told me 11 years ago at BTC's birth that:

1) Donald Trump would be President.

2) Bill Cosby would be in Prison.

3) Bitcoin would be worth what it is today.

Yep, you are right I have 'frigging' WTF syndrome that is probably carrying over into watching the Craig Wright Train Wreck.

[JSRAW]

Indeed youtube "crypto" is under attack. I've just noticed that the channel Ivan on Tech has been taken down. Over 211K followers with a daily podcast. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrYmtJBtLdtm2ov84ulV-yg
A very talented interviewer, shame.
Youtube is state owned it would seem, Guess we'll have to flush them down the same hole with FB. Censorship resistant platforms on the way!

He's not alone in that list... good amount of crypto channel got flagged recently.

YouTube Allegedly Flagging Popular Cryptocurrency Related Videos

[Raja_MBZ]

TBH, most of the Crypto-Youtube channels are only used to promote sh!tcoins. I'm sure many people have lost more than 99% on some of the picks by those Youtubers with a fancy number of subscribers. It's time they all learn a lesson.

[JSRAW]

Suppoman left the chat...

[AlcoHoDL]

...Cutting production (per block) in half, while cost of production (per block) remains the same, could make mining unprofitable, unless the price rises.

..but it doesn't actually affect the price per se. Mining becomes unprofitable, hashrate falls, difficulty falls. The price drives this action, this action doesn't drive the price. Aggregate demand is always key to price changes, and it dances mainly to other tunes.

Not directly (that's the reason I rephrased my statement earlier). But I believe it does, indirectly. Maybe some miners will be forced to shut down their mining equipment, others could mine at a loss and HoDL their coins, all sorts of complex things can happen, that will be triggered by the halving event. History has shown that each halving has been followed by a huge price rise (even after you iron out the volatility). It may not happen instantly, but history shows that it will happen. Of course, we only had 2 halvings, so there's not much data to work on. Time will tell. And soon.

A relevant quote [Original Post]:

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more." -- Satoshi Nakamoto

Edit: Merry Christmas everyone!

[akhjob]

TBH, most of the Crypto-Youtube channels are only used to promote sh!tcoins. I'm sure many people have lost more than 99% on some of the picks by those Youtubers with a fancy number of subscribers. It's time they all learn a lesson.

Yeah so true. As long Andreas M. Antonopoulos is not facing any similar issues, I am ok with the banning of shitcoin Shiller channels. But that's not going to stop them, they'll be moving to D.tube

[Arriemoller]

...Cutting production (per block) in half, while cost of production (per block) remains the same, could make mining unprofitable, unless the price rises.

..but it doesn't actually affect the price per se. Mining becomes unprofitable, hashrate falls, difficulty falls. The price drives this action, this action doesn't drive the price. Aggregate demand is always key to price changes, and it dances mainly to other tunes.

Not directly (that's the reason I rephrased my statement earlier). But I believe it does, indirectly. Maybe some miners will be forced to shut down their mining equipment, others could mine at a loss and HoDL their coins, all sorts of complex things can happen, that will be triggered by the halving event. History has shown that each halving has been followed by a huge price rise (even after you iron out the volatility). It may not happen instantly, but history shows that it will happen. Of course, we only had 2 halvings, so there's not much data to work on. Time will tell. And soon.

A relevant quote:

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more." -- Satoshi Nakamoto

Edit: Merry Christmas everyone!

Yeah, right, show me any currency that "gravitate toward the production cost".

[Arriemoller]

Better get to sleep before the sun is up, have a good day everybody.

[JayJuanGee]

I read your post as being exceedingly cautious, Majormax, and you already likely recognize that I continue to believe that there is a bit more underlying buying pressures than the amount that you seem to be willing to accept present.  Furthermore, supply is a pretty damned underlying force, whether you want to categorize it as "secondary" or not...  supply is a kind of hard pressure that inevitably ends up biting the bears in the ass.. especially any of them who under estimate its power, after they are manipulating down for much longer and much lower than can be contained and ends up resulting in a lot of irrational and uncontainable upwards FOMO buying... which is likely going to be another history that repeats itself... surely not guaranteed in any kind of way, but a seeming likely outcome... time and degree to be determined.  

You are quite right. I think it wise to be cautious.

I wouldn't categorise supply as a 'force', but demand acts more like the pressure. If you had to say which was more active and which more passive, how would you label them ?

Supply is more a variable which is acted upon by demand, and I suppose that is my point in saying that the effect of halving is not a given. Only when demand is absolutely assured and permanent does supply become the active variable.

I cannot disagree with anything you say there, and yeah, supply is more passive, but it get's manipulated to fuck, and that is just part of the dynamics of something like this and we are also learning as we go along regarding how far and how long it can be manipulated.

Let's take the stock to flow, for example.  We do not know if it is a very accurate predictive force, even though we can see that historically there can be a kind of description and there can be a kind of prediction that gets put in place based on the description and the formula and suggests that the future is going to follow a kind of similar path as the path.  At the same, time there is a kind of predictable mean in which the price is likely to gravitate within that model, while at the same time, there are likely going to continue to be powers that be that try their damnest to try to either create conditions to make the model become untrue or make it appear that it is not true.

So, sure, it is possible that they could become successful and make the predictive model NOT be true on a kind of permanent basis (which seems highly unlikely that they could be successful in such an endeavor), or they may end up trying their damnest for a long time to manipulate the BTC price below the predictive location, but sooner or later it comes to bite them in the ass and either just merely reverts back to the predictive line or ends up shooting past the predictive line in the opposite direction.

We will see.  We will see.

By the way, there is also the four year fractal comparison model  and the s-curve exponential adoption model that kind of ongoingly builds upon the ongoing network effects that keep building in a kind of Lindy Effect kind of way that seems to be a bit towards the upside and also towards the front running potentiality... Who knows what is going to happen exactly, but I would be a bit worried if I was NOT sufficiently and adequately prepared for up while worrying to damned much about the downside as being anything negative beyond just a period to either HODL or to buy some more bitcoin in the spirit of ACCUMULATL.

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens.

edit : Merry Christmas !!

Edit merry christmas, to you too... and merry christmas to all of the WO bros... and gal..


Of course, we cannot be strict about the halvening because we know that almost nothing is likely to happen on that actual day or even within months around the actual halvening date because 1) there can be manipulation that goes on around that even (either up or down) and 2) it takes a while for the lessening of the supply to actually be felt in a kind of "HARD" way.  Yeah, many of us know that the supply shock is happening, but still, that does not stop manipulation attempts in the opposite direction (meaning down)..... ... and it also does not discount that if "everyone" or damned near everyone starts to attempt to consider that the pumpening is going to happen later that the pumpenining might still end up happening sooner in a kind of front running kind of a way.

We cannot be attempting to put too much exactness in where the hell BTC prices are going, and yeah, I understand that even you was anticipating BTC prices to drag on downwardly for a lot longer than they’d  did and the April to June 3.5x pumpening surprised a lot of use, but it does not mean that we necessarily revert to that earlier theory of BTC prices going down low and long and more pain having to be felt.  Such pain might happen, and it might not.... and, yeah, you Majormax, just love yourself some ongoing and onward down cautioning talk... it's your favorite past-time, even during christmas... you BIG party poop....


 

[JSRAW]

Edit merry christmas, to you too... and merry christmas to all of the WO bros... and gal..sisters

FTFY 

Merry Christmas everyone.

[JayJuanGee]

Edit merry christmas, to you too... and merry christmas to all of the WO bros... and gal..sisters

FTFY 

Merry Christmas everyone.

O.k.  Fair enough.

Merry Christmas all WO bros and sis.   

[Cryptotourist]

We would help you all to Counter such an Effort, ofcourse now for 7,6Million €

The LOL of the day.
You have been a very - very - bad boy this year, so no presents for you.

Merry Xmas everyone!

[serveria.com]

I can feel the upwards momentum