Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

hodlers should reread this every so often just because imo

~past cycles~...

great post @600

+10 WOsMerits


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https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1329073166921072646

+1 WOsMerit

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the evening wall report

#dyor

4h


D

#stronghands

[philipma1957]

Incentives are aligned.  Taproot will help increase adoption and thus, increase Bitcoin’s value.  What selfish miner running a business on razor-thin margins would not want for Bitcoin’s technology to improve, especially in ways that increase transaction capacity?  The money must flow!

I think that the reason why incentives got misaligned with Segwit v0 was that it broke Jihan’s covert ASICBOOST.  This led Bitmain and Bitmain-dominated mining pools into an unholy forking alliance with malicious parties who wanted to fork-attack Bitcoin for other reasons.  (Not that Jihan wasn’t malicious—and not that he didn’t probably have multiple motives; I simply point out here that he had a short-term, stupidly myopic economic interest in protecting his covert ASICBOOST capability.)

Many miners also may have another reason to desire Schnorr, MuSig, Taproot, etc.:  Anything that increases Bitcoin’s blockchain privacy on a mass scale decreases the potential for coercive pressure on miners to join transaction-blacklisting, “KYC”-enforcing mining pools.

Just for a gut check, @philipma1957:  Would you prefer a future in which you may be coerced to use your hashpower to attack Bitcoin’s fungibility—or a future in which such attacks are less feasible, or (beyond Taproot-based technologies) even impossible?

Wow what a hard question to answer.

BTC is still an infant.

It is quite small. Well under 400,000,000,000 cap I think it is 327 billion at the moment.

So if I keep it hidden with clever tech do I attract many governments that attempt to shut me down ?


So is the wise path to play along until it gets too big to fail?

ie a 5 trillion market cap seems hard to attack. Especially if 4 trillion is in the hands of large investors.

So I am inclined to not go hidden and paint a target on my back when it comes to BTC.

I am pro shitcoin (just a few are needed) for this reason.

XMR or some other coin can be the sneaky coin that paints a target on its back.

LTC and Doge can do small transactions.

This thread has a lot of BTC maximumist (sp)  people I am not one of them.

  1 coin makes it easier for governments of the world to control.
 As in your question we know that governments will be doing this.

I am pro shitcoin (just a few are needed) for this reason.

XMR or some other coin can be the sneaky coin that paints a target on its back.

LTC and Doge can do small transactions.

This thread has a lot of BTC maximumist (sp)  people I am not one of them.

  1 coin makes it easier for governments of the world to control.
 As in your question we know that governments will be doing this.

There is a less than zero chance, in any future scenario, that governments of the world would tell crypto brokers and exchanges to "Shut down all Bitcoin^TM buying and selling. But the other shitcoins? Yeah they're cool, they can keep trading as normal." If a worldwide shutdown were to happen, it would be all crypto or nothing being bought/sold on public exchanges. But by then CBDC would likely be a huge worldwide thing, so difficult for them to sell the public on a double standard. Also, the more major corporations, investment banks, and HNW investors take large positions in Bitcoin, the less likely it will ever be outlawed.

Torque why did you make your post the way you did?

[JayJuanGee]

Although I see some weak-hands-whiplash during the night, now we are back above $18K. I still can't believe that so soon after the mostly bearish 3 years we are here - well above the 2x line. I mean for someone with 115% savings into BTC, it was quite exhausting to check the price over and over again and see that it either can't hold $8K, or even makes endless barts around $6.4K.

And that night in 2018 when we fell to $3.1K. Geez! I couldn't sleep well thinking from where I can get more  fiat to buy the dip. Back then the banks didn't offer big loans with good interest, or at least I didn't know about it. So I'd drained my two credit cards, although the interest of the missing sum was 14% per year. I was 30% below my average investment price. I remember when I went to the supermarket I didn't buy some expensive food, because I was so depressed. I continued to DCA until I decided to take a small loan with 4.9% yearly interest in early March. I had the opportunity to take 5x bigger sum, but I decided to wait in case some crash follows. So I've bought between $9K and $7.7K. Then the most dramatic crash I've witnessed happened. But this time I was so used to crashes, that I said to myself: meh, if this price holds for several months I will go to the bank for the new loan. But now I don't want to risk getting covid infection.

So I continued to DCA and in the summer an unexpectedly big profit in gpu mining allowed me to get even more BTC's. I know it is best not to sell anything untill 200K, but... because of my belief in Bitcoin, I took a bigger risk with these loans. So, I've decided to sell these coins, they weren't mine after all. Thus the bank will get from me several hundred bucks, while I get from it several tens of thousands   It is time for me to close the loans, replace the damaged hardware and to learn how to hodl in exponential growths. Man, this is harder than I thought! 30K, 50K, 100K, ... how I will resist the temptation to sell too much too early, I don't know. The problem is that I have only one dream - a big luxury house or a villa at some paradise beach/island. No more greasy streets, dull life and stupid bosses and people around me! I just need to summon all my mental powers so that this change will cost me like 1/5th of my stash one day, when we are well above 100K.

Your gambling sounds much worse than the impression that I previously had gathered about how you were employing your leveraging into BTC.  

I hope that you can get your gambling under control, even though this time around did seem to pay off (and work out) quite handsomely for you... at least, so far.  Gambling with such amounts is NOT always going to work out so well.. so hopefully you can figure out some ways to approach your BTC investing matter with a lot less leverage... even though you have high aspirations for yourself... and shitcoiners have high aspirations for themselves, too and that is part of the reason that they end up betting on shitcoins hoping to outperform bitcoin.

Part of the asymmetric bet with bitcoin remains that you should not have to engage in high leverage in order for bitcoin to still pay off, and one of the ways to actually end up losing in bitcoin is to employ leverage and have the BTC price move against you for lower and longer than your budget is able to tolerate.

everyone dreaming of yaay 20k per coin yaay ATH next week, while i here sit broke and laugh at the sheer idiocracy that i have to witness . Well, give brains to some and money to me is my Quote.Damn i miss the folks from 2010-13 that i met on this Forum, true Legendarys unlike.. This... whatever it is

Dammn you Mt. Gox you suck balls really hard ! All we got left now is trash


P.S They got Electrolytes


R.I.P 2010-2013 You will be missed !

You only have yourself to blame, if you failed and refused to continue to invest in BTC after you got your money taken in MTGOX...

 

Even if you may have only been able to afford $10 per week, you could have had a decent amount of coins by now.. even with a modest budget...

According to DCA website, you would have more than 4.5 bitcoins... which is surely not nothing.. and only would have invested $3,660.


In other words, stop your whining, and look in the mirror..

Are you fcking kidding me?

Why would I be kidding?

You made some assertions about not having bitcoins, currently, something like because you got goxed 7 years ago.. whine whine whine...

So, I felt that I needed to clarify the actual situation in bitcoinlandia, we have options.. as long as we have some kind of cashflow. such as an extra $10 per week or something like that... I recommend investing more, but people do what they are able to do.

[Toxic2040]

1h addendum




#stronghands

[xhomerx10]

Thousands of cars lined up to collect food in Dallas, Texas, over the weekend, stretching as far as the eye can see.

Poor Americans are forced using their cars (on credit) to stand in a food line for hours and the crazy thing is they actually believe they live in the best country in the world.


https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1328370997125410817

 In which other country can poor people line up at a food bank while sitting in an air-conditioned, luxury vehicle, listening to music on a factory-installed, 200+ W, 6 speaker, sound system surfing the internet on their iPhone 11 max pro??  It doesnt get any better than this; not even close.  This makes 'Best country in the world' seem like a gross understatement.

What I would like to know is if that is also part of the stupidity of society (the same that think credit is for spending, when it is the other way around). I mean, food for "surviving" is cheap as fuck. As in probably cheaper than the gas used to go collect it. So, unless they are also giving "luxury food" in those food banks I really don't understand it. How does it work? How much food and what "quality" do they give? I was thinking that maybe they give a few months worth of food for one trip... but that wouldn't probably fit into the trunk of a single vehicle.

I really feel like I am missing something here.

 You are missing something.

 Those people are not in need of survival rations yet; just a little help.  In fact, 40% of the people in that line of cars were looking for help for the first-time.  Many people lost their jobs due to the lock-downs and other restrictions implemented due to Covid-19 have run out of unemployment benefits, likely much of the savings they may have had.  Since the second stimulus bill has been stalled for months, Americans are not getting the second promised $1200 relief check either.   One thing that you don't see by looking at the picture is that many people in that line of cars also received a turkey - which is essential for a proper "Thanksgiving" dinner.  This particular image isn't about survival food, this is food that has been donated by people (and companies) who 'have' trying to make sure that people who are a little low on funds will still be able to have a proper Thanksgiving dinner with family - which is a luxury.   Americans are generous people - in fact, they are likely among the most generous people you will find.

 There is a program in the USA called SNAP which stands for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program that provides food (or a food-purchasing card) for individuals and families in need.  It varies by state but generally a family of 4 can still have an income of >$3000 per month and still qualify for the benefit.  Americans are far from destitute.

[bitserve]

 You are missing something.

 Those people are not in need of survival rations yet; just a little help.  In fact, 40% of the people in that line of cars were looking for help for the first-time.  Many people lost their jobs due to the lock-downs and other restrictions implemented due to Covid-19 have run out of unemployment benefits, likely much of the savings they may have had.  Since the second stimulus bill has been stalled for months, Americans are not getting the second promised $1200 relief check either.   One thing that you don't see by looking at the picture is that many people in that line of cars also received a turkey - which is essential for a proper "Thanksgiving" dinner.  This particular image isn't about survival food, this is food that has been donated by people (and companies) who 'have' trying to make sure that people who are a little low on funds will still be able to have a proper Thanksgiving dinner with family - which is a luxury.   Americans are generous people - in fact, they are likely among the most generous people you will find.

 There is a program in the USA called SNAP which stands for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program that provides food (or a food-purchasing card) for individuals and families in need.  It varies by state but generally a family of 4 can still have an income of >$3000 per month and still qualify for the benefit.  Americans are far from destitute.

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Makes more sense but still donno what to make of it. First I took for granted that it is too soon for people that lost their jobs due to covid to be already out of unemployment benefits. Also I thought it was some sort of government food bank not a private initiative fueled by other people's generosity. Didn't know either that $1200 relief check was the only government help till date.

Not that much surprised that $3000/month there is considered on the verge of poverty, considering how high the average salaries are there.

Well I guess it is all about the weird contrast of those nice new cars and the concept of "food bank"... and maybe something about the determination to live above their means (or on credit) at the cost of not having any safety net other than charity.

[BayAreaCoins]

I get "free" health insurance in America... In fact it's better than free, it pays me, I got a $30 check because I had their free health insurance last year. lol  (No copay doctor visits + free medicine etc... it's amazing)

Then I get $190 for "groceries".  It's basically a debt card and you can spend it on anything that isn't cooked.

I could buy $190 in King Crab and live oysters if I wanted OR $190 in straight candy bars.  lol... it's pathetic.

Poor people don't deserve choices... they deserve help.

It's amazing that people pay big bucks for Blue Apron meal plans, but we think meal plans for the poor are somehow inhumane... fuck me.

[xhomerx10]

 You are missing something.

 Those people are not in need of survival rations yet; just a little help.  In fact, 40% of the people in that line of cars were looking for help for the first-time.  Many people lost their jobs due to the lock-downs and other restrictions implemented due to Covid-19 have run out of unemployment benefits, likely much of the savings they may have had.  Since the second stimulus bill has been stalled for months, Americans are not getting the second promised $1200 relief check either.   One thing that you don't see by looking at the picture is that many people in that line of cars also received a turkey - which is essential for a proper "Thanksgiving" dinner.  This particular image isn't about survival food, this is food that has been donated by people (and companies) who 'have' trying to make sure that people who are a little low on funds will still be able to have a proper Thanksgiving dinner with family - which is a luxury.   Americans are generous people - in fact, they are likely among the most generous people you will find.

 There is a program in the USA called SNAP which stands for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program that provides food (or a food-purchasing card) for individuals and families in need.  It varies by state but generally a family of 4 can still have an income of >$3000 per month and still qualify for the benefit.  Americans are far from destitute.

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

Makes more sense but still donno what to make of it. First I took for granted that it is too soon for people that lost their jobs due to covid to be already out of unemployment benefits. Also I thought it was some sort of government food bank not a private initiative fueled by other people's generosity. Didn't know either that $1200 relief check was the only government help till date.

Not that much surprised that $3000/month there is considered on the verge of poverty, considering how high the average salaries are there.

Well I guess it is all about the weird contrast of those nice new cars and the concept of "food bank"... and maybe something about the determination to live above their means (or on credit) at the cost of not having any safety net other than charity.

  I don't think they see it as 'above their means' though.  If I can borrow a bunch of money to buy a home at today's price, write the loan interest amount off against my income tax and have a (typically) more valuable home in the future then it's an investment.  As long as I can make the payments each month, I'm not really living beyond my means.  I just need to make sure I don't have to pay more in loan payments than I can bring in through my work.  How can it be considered wiser to rent from an individual owner as opposed to 'renting' from the bank - you'd be obliged to either one and both could theoretically kick you out for non-payment.  Covid-19 was a once (maybe twice) in a lifetime event that likely couldn't have been factored into your investment decisions (at least not easily).  
 
 Also, consumer spending accounts for 70% of the US GDP - it's a powerful engine that requires a lot of fuel

[xhomerx10]

I get "free" health insurance in America... In fact it's better than free, it pays me, I got a $30 check because I had their free health insurance last year. lol  (No copay doctor visits + free medicine etc... it's amazing)

Then I get $190 for "groceries".  It's basically a debt card and you can spend it on anything that isn't cooked.

I could buy $190 in King Crab and live oysters if I wanted OR $190 in straight candy bars.  lol... it's pathetic.

Poor people don't deserve choices... they deserve help.

It's amazing that people pay big bucks for Blue Apron meal plans, but we think meal plans for the poor are somehow inhumane... fuck me.

 Do you get the money for groceries weekly or monthly?

[bitserve]

  I don't think they see it as 'above their means' though.  If I can borrow a bunch of money to buy a home at today's price, write the loan interest amount off against my income tax and have a (typically) more valuable home in the future then it's an investment.  As long as I can make the payments each month, I'm not really living beyond my means.  I just need to make sure I don't have to pay more in loan payments than I can bring in through my work.  How can it be considered wiser to rent from an individual owner as opposed to 'renting' from the bank - you'd be obliged to either one and both could theoretically kick you out for non-payment.  Covid-19 was a once (maybe twice) in a lifetime event that likely couldn't have been factored into your investment decisions (at least not easily).  
 
 Also, consumer spending accounts for 70% of the US GDP - it's a powerful engine that requires a lot of fuel

Don't get me wrong, I am absolutely pro buying home with mortgage instead of renting. In fact, US is one of the countries with the lower ratio of owners vs renters. And yes, THAT is investing. On the other hand, those new cars, the iphones and many other things are NOT, that is spending... And they shouldn't be spending in that BEFORE they had managed to have some good savings. Priorities.

Yeah I can understand that it is the government itself who push the people into that uncontrolled consumerism but the people should know better. Because, well, shit happens.

[philipma1957]

  I don't think they see it as 'above their means' though.  If I can borrow a bunch of money to buy a home at today's price, write the loan interest amount off against my income tax and have a (typically) more valuable home in the future then it's an investment.  As long as I can make the payments each month, I'm not really living beyond my means.  I just need to make sure I don't have to pay more in loan payments than I can bring in through my work.  How can it be considered wiser to rent from an individual owner as opposed to 'renting' from the bank - you'd be obliged to either one and both could theoretically kick you out for non-payment.  Covid-19 was a once (maybe twice) in a lifetime event that likely couldn't have been factored into your investment decisions (at least not easily).  
 
 Also, consumer spending accounts for 70% of the US GDP - it's a powerful engine that requires a lot of fuel

Don't get me wrong, I am absolutely pro buying home with mortgage instead of renting. In fact, US is one of the countries with the lower ratio of owners vs renters. And yes, THAT is investing. On the other hand, those new cars, the iphones and many other things are NOT, that is spending... And they shouldn't be spending in that BEFORE they had managed to have some good savings. Priorities.

Yeah I can understand that it is the government itself who push the people into that uncontrolled consumerism but the people should know better. Because, well, shit happens.

Coffee five dollars at Starbucks two times a day every day of the year. 

That is 3650 A year for 50 years. Or over 180000 a life time.

In my case maybe 5000 spent over my last 50 years

Plus 6000 spent making my own coffee. so I am out 11000

so 180000-11 = 169000 In my pocket.

smoking.

I quit feb 29 1996

25 years soon.  so 25 x 365 =  9125 days. x 1.5 = 13600 packs of smokes. round it to 14000

2+10= 12/2 = 6 bucks a pack 6 x 14000= 84000

so on coffee and smokes I saved over 250,000 bucks.

Just 2 items. 1 person.

As for my wife she does  not smoke 💨 ever so make that 100,000

add 150,000 saved for coffee she saved 250,000

500000 two people.

[nutildah]

It's amazing that people pay big bucks for Blue Apron meal plans, but we think meal plans for the poor are somehow inhumane... fuck me.

Did your account get hacked or something?

so on coffee and smokes I saved over 250,000 bucks.

Just buy Folgers and rolling tobacco, problem solved.

[nullius]

How can it be considered wiser to rent from an individual owner as opposed to 'renting' from the bank - you'd be obliged to either one and both could theoretically kick you out for non-payment.

How about, um, owning your own home?  As in:  Free and clear.

What a nice society you have:  The “American dream” of home ownership is truly dead, out of reach and unthinkable to the overwhelming majority of Americans.  It has been replaced by an illusion based on a false dichotomy between renting from the bank via an intermediary “landlord” who rents from a bank, and renting directly from the bank.

The banks own everything!  You are so immersed in debt culture based on debt-“backed” money and total submission to the banks, you cannot even see what is wrong with your proposition.

Bitcoin, and home ownership:  Be your own bank.  Be the king of your castle.

"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"
😼 Bitcoin Core (onion)

Don’t get me started on the rents known as “property taxes”.  Are you even aware of how recent a development that is in the United States?
See also:

Historically, besides heritable class status, the single most effective guarantor of voter quality was a real property ownership requirement.  [...]

Naturally, I think that such a requirement must logically exclude mortgaged properties, which (especially in today’s society) are effectively rented from the bank.

[Heater]

2+10= 12/2 = 6 bucks a pack 6 x 14000= 84000

Smokes are about $50 / pack in Australia right now. I shit you not.

[Globb0]

The food bank gave about 5 bags of shopping, mostly tins and dry stuff pasta cereals some chocolate for the kids.

[OutOfMemory]

2+10= 12/2 = 6 bucks a pack 6 x 14000= 84000

Smokes are about $50 / pack in Australia right now. I shit you not.

Still the most lethal drug (also neuro-toxic), besides alcohol (cell-toxic, neuro-toxic), both for the cheapest price.
What does that tell us?

EDIT: nicotine as addictive as opiates, followed by alcohol.

[El duderino_]

2+10= 12/2 = 6 bucks a pack 6 x 14000= 84000

Smokes are about $50 / pack in Australia right now. I shit you not.

Should be 100$ 

[OutOfMemory]

2+10= 12/2 = 6 bucks a pack 6 x 14000= 84000

Smokes are about $50 / pack in Australia right now. I shit you not.

Should be 100$  

At least!
I'd even adjust the price to "marijuana levels", so about $10 per gram of tobacco  
A cig, including filter weighs roughly 1.2g *iirc


EDIT: Plus the effect of freeing poor tobacco workers from wage slavery 

[JayJuanGee]

What I like about this month's big pump is that the few dumps that attempted to destroy it were quickly eaten out. This shows a strong upward momentum, which I hope will soon take us to ATH and beyond.

It's dumping again as I type this... Let's see... Will the above hold true?

In any case, I would still HoDL and wait.

Sure, this month's pump has been a continuation of a pump that largely started in the beginning of September, and the upward curve of such pump has gotten steeper with the passage of the last couple of months including steeper in November than what it was in October.

Ultimately, the challenge began in the beginning of September with the battle over the $10k support (which had previously been resistance), which largely took the whole month of September to resolve before we entered into the battles for resistance at $12,500-ish and $13,880-ish, which largely those two battles were resolved without much passage of time (by passing right through them when we approached them)... not exactly like a knife through hot butter, but without any real meaningful corrections (and a kind of upward movement right at those price points)... bringing us to the pre-deadman's zone resistance in the $16.5k to $17,250 arena.. which again such resistance was passed through, once we reached it, without too much efforts and a kind of pump in that area rather than a real battle...

So largely we have entered into our already knowns deadman's zone (of $17,250 to $23,500) without really hitting much if any resistance all the way up from $10k in early September nor at points in which some of us had considered "technically" to be potential battle zones at $12,500, $13,880 and $17,250.

We also have nearly closed 7 weekly candles in a row in the green, so long as this week's candle closes above $15,875 - and surely currently, the odds look pretty decent for that.  

Perhaps it would be better to close this week's candle closer to the $15,875 (yet still green) than to close towards the top of the candle's range (which is currently, from just over 24 hours ago, is at $18,483, as I type).  I don't know.  There seems to be some desire, currently, to stay in the deadman's zone.

Seems to me that we usually do not get more than 7 weekly green candles in a row, and my looking back at the charts from the past several years, I only saw 8 weekly green candles in a row on one occasion in early 2017.. and I only saw 7 weekly green candles in a row on four occasions back to late 2016, so it is NOT a common happening to either get 7 weekly green candles in a row and even more rare to get 8 weekly green candles in a row... and not saying that it could not happen again or that having one or two red candles in there along the way might be o.k., too (king daddy is not exactly or necessarily restricted by some of those technical limitations), especially if we were to close towards the top of this week's candle then it becomes easier to have a subsequent red candle or two and not really getting too bearish in the whole price dynamics.

So the way that we ended up entering into this deadman's zone which is about $17,250 to $23,500 causes the deadman's zone to become a lot more vulnerable to potential meaningful corrections of 25% or greater and a place to possibly engage in a BTC price battle - even though it seems to me that just the mere nature of the deadman's zone causes the terms of such potential battles to be favorable for bulls... at least until we either get to the top of the range of the deadman's zone or until we break through the range of the deadman's zone.. which could then cause the terms of any subsequent battle to become more favorable to bears (at least in the short term) and does not really mean that the bears are going to transition this bullmarket into a bearmaket until at minimum $50k to $75k-ish... then they might have a chance to transition us into a bearmarket that might well come out looking like the mid 2013 bear market (of two blow off tops) rather than looking like the 2018 bearmarket that was more drawn out as one BIG down slope and not meaningful rallys of new ATHs... that "we" did not realize that "we" (when I say "we" in these last two instances, I am largely referring to the royal we, and fuck how others in traditional financial analysis circles define as either a bearmarket or knowing when you are in one.. we are talking bitcoin here.. not some fucking mature or regular asset class) were in it until the end of the year (2018 that is).

The next few days to close this week's candle, and then the following week are critical.^tm

You heard it here, first.  

[OutOfMemory]

^ considering the long wick of the currently developing weekly candle, bears seem to be in control at the moment. Buying interest is needed, but who wants to buy in an accelerating uptrend? (EDIT: FOMO-ers excluded)

EDIT: ATH in 2020 would still surprise me, but by no means in an unpleasant way. I will easily accept that  

Gotta support the kids in home-schooling now. cu l8erz