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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25772076 times)
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October 28, 2020, 04:54:51 AM

The thing that really gets my goat (annoys me): being called "lucky" by the few friends of mine who know that I hold btc, the same friends who I told about btc years ago and who decided to invest.....nothing.

If they could understand (or even care to listen), they would learn that there is nothing lucky about sending most of your net worth to a random bank account in Japan (Mt. Gox) not knowing if you'll ever see it again, hodling through multi-year deep bear markets, watching your net worth collapse before your eyes, knowing that it could be years before recovery. That kind of hodling requires a strength of mind infrequently seen amongst contemporaries, coupled with an understanding of btc fundamentals and a realisation of its potential to disturb global finance.

So, if anyone calls you "lucky" for having bought bitcoin and profited, just smile, knowing inwardly that having come through the great bear markets means you're one of the most resilient of them all, and one of the most deserving. Btc rewards those who stay the course.

Congratulations fellow btc adventurers - our time is just beginning. And don't feel bad about taking a little profit here and there. You deserve it.

Fuck yeah!


Yes, agreed on all points!  I had bought BTC since about 2014 - 2015 (will have to check and remember this once and for all, LOL), and HEDL until I started trimming as BTC spiked in 2017.  Sold some here, some there.  As low as $9000, highest sales were at $15,000 (all numbers approximate).  One sale around $15,000 was after the tippy-top (which I missed), but that's OK.  Nice profit, properly declared to the IRS and CapGains tax paid.  I still have "enough" BTC to be over 1% of my net.

And I too have heard about how "lucky" I have been.  And part of that is likely true!  But your main point is that we who believed that BTC had a great future.  The 2018 - 2020 bear market was brutal, and tested our patience and resolve.

Also, I will likely trim a bit of my HODLings if we go up more, say, to $15,000 again.  Probably some more at +/-$25k.  More at $40k.  What would I do with the proceeds?  Au & Pt

But I will NEVER sell all my Bitcoin, even if over a $150,000 price...

Finally, fuck yeah!

why so bearish? not considering to sell any before $50k. will sell a tiny amount around $100k. will always keep +50% of stash in the slight chance of an early hyperbitcoinization superbullrun. and after such run, selling is not the name of the game anymore.

don't sell prematurely.  Smiley
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October 28, 2020, 05:23:36 AM

Ok, now we are talking.. New ATH since the dump from 20k..
Seriously bullish now.. The pump to 100k+ is ON!!
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October 28, 2020, 06:13:37 AM
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Yes, agreed on all points!  I had bought BTC since about 2014 - 2015 (will have to check and remember this once and for all, LOL), and HEDL until I started trimming as BTC spiked in 2017.  Sold some here, some there.  As low as $9000, highest sales were at $15,000 (all numbers approximate).  One sale around $15,000 was after the tippy-top (which I missed), but that's OK.  Nice profit, properly declared to the IRS and CapGains tax paid.  I still have "enough" BTC to be over 1% of my net.

And I too have heard about how "lucky" I have been.  And part of that is likely true!  But your main point is that we who believed that BTC had a great future.  The 2018 - 2020 bear market was brutal, and tested our patience and resolve.

Also, I will likely trim a bit of my HODLings if we go up more, say, to $15,000 again.  Probably some more at +/-$25k.  More at $40k.  What would I do with the proceeds?  Au & Pt

But I will NEVER sell all my Bitcoin, even if over a $150,000 price...

Finally, fuck yeah!

I was reading zerohedge in those days and I remember when you made your first purchase and mentioned it in the comment section (I just can't remember the date). I also remember there was someone in the comments sending free BTC to those who were interested in it. pretty much everyone bagged the shit out of him, but, I'm pretty sure you took the person up on that offer, and then later made your own purchase.

Zerohedge comment section was the first place I heard about BTC myself, that was early 2013 and then when the Cyprus thing happened zerohedge had it's first (to my memory anyway) article about BTC (in a negative light mind you).
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October 28, 2020, 06:14:21 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), strawbs (1)



edit: and people were telling me a month or so ago to sell at like $9,500 usd or some such and 'buy on the dip' ...Sad



I hope you have learned your lesson by now. Wink

Also, many, many people tell me to sell some...I know more than a few sold at like $10,500 on a buyback at $8,500 return on Bitcoin...even I! Know

that never works.... Smiley I may not 'want' to jump out in traffic...but I see a lot of FOMO and FUD like cars screaming past...but I don't play in traffic anymore. Smiley

Yeah, I sold low back in the day at $3,900 BTC ...13 BTC ..of which I recovered 5 BTC...but then again so keeping score I'm still 8 BTC down, but I was 'retired' on

crypto..at the time of this Real Life Issue sale and that got me to $50,700

and my last (about) 1.5 years till I could do 'traditional stocks/bonds' retirement...the option of going back to 'work for somebody' was just too dire...Sad

So $50,700 or thereabouts x 15% cap gains (about) and 10% State Income Taxes left me with $38,025 (about maybe a bit more after fees)

Real Life Issues suck.

Since then however I can still have my 'fabulous' $30-$35K 'working' lifestyle, in say lifetime 'real no inflation buying power $$$" (about in real $$$ since I was 18 years

old) in my

retirement and NO LONGER have such a 'devil's choice' to make.

Of course, barring health issues or some such, in which BTC/Crypto 'would' be a lifeline....regardless..knock wood!

Currently I have enough Altcoins/Forked Coins/etc (of dubious values and numbers) if I sold now to get 'close' to my original HODL HOARD and recover the 8 Bitcoin sale

of dubiousness.

But you do what you have to do to stay 'free' (ie not employed ...retired 3 years early...this above sale covered the last about 1.5 years till traditional investments kicked

in)

So, that is even, after taxes (again) at 15% cap gains and 10% state tax. I however...am HOPING that somehow...Bitcoin will 'stablize' at some point

for a month or more and then the various dubious altcoins and forked coins etc...will be ripe to dump. (crosses fingers/does the sign of the cross at the cat/generally

going with HOPEM on this)

But we get around 18K Bitcoin, hell even 16k Bitcoin and I will 'crack like an egg' and dump the last of my altcoins..if not before to get them 8 Bitcoin back. Smiley

So, like all HODL and Bitcoin/Crypto 'plans' it is likely to fail, due to the 'fool' thinking he has an angle..(me) but hey, its a hobby....blundering along in confusion

and cluelessness has its own adventurious charm, don't ya know...always drama BTC/Crypto...always FOMO/FUD excitement. Smiley

Brad
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October 28, 2020, 06:30:16 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Click below link for charts denominated in bitcoin:

Gold, the Nasdaq, banks, bonds, commodities, G4 central banks balance sheet, silver, Amazon, Apple

Quote
Bitcoin is eating the world...

It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.

You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC
https://twitter.com/raoulgmi/status/1321176880477884422
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October 28, 2020, 07:17:02 AM
Last edit: October 28, 2020, 08:02:22 AM by JayJuanGee

[edited out]


So i see we still have few masochists supporting coinbase


Is that a clip of Bob?  Or some cheap imitator?

[edited out]

Yes, agreed on all points!  I had bought BTC since about 2014 - 2015 (will have to check and remember this once and for all, LOL), and HEDL until I started trimming as BTC spiked in 2017.  Sold some here, some there.  As low as $9000, highest sales were at $15,000 (all numbers approximate).  One sale around $15,000 was after the tippy-top (which I missed), but that's OK.  Nice profit, properly declared to the IRS and CapGains tax paid.  I still have "enough" BTC to be over 1% of my net.

Holy whoaza!!!!!

That surely does not seem to be a very profitable approach.

It seems to be NOT very aggressive in terms of "investing in" BTC, and it seems way too eager to take profits in dollars.  Maybe there are ways to make it work, but surely it seems to be a conservative approach, and one that I largely rejected to employ - because it plays too much into the idea of reallocating on a regular basis and failing/refusing the concept of letting your winners ride.

After some internal hemming and hawing about what I was going to do exactly, and even trying to figure out my goals in respect to BTC, I ended up settling on an initial allocation target into BTC  that was aimed at 10%, and maybe I have some lack of discipline because I did not stick specifically with keeping my allocation into BTC at 10%.  I largely reached such target in late 2014 - and at that point, my average buy in price into BTC was a bit over $550 per BTC - but the then BTC price continued to drop throughout the end of 2014 and into 2015 and largely stayed in the mid $200s for the vast majority of 2015.

Admittedly, I had some cashflow issues in early 2015 until about May 2015, yet I did continue to buy BTC during 2015, and before the BTC price got out of the $200s, my portfolio allocation in BTC had largely reached around 13% or 14%, so I had exceeded my own original authorization and target of 10%.

As BTC prices largely gravitated UPpity in 2016 and into 2017, somewhere along the line, I reconsidered the amount of BTC that I would sell on the way UP.  Originally, I had projected BTC selling plans that skimmed off pretty large chunks of BTC that would have caused me to sell 20% to 30% of my stash if the BTC price went up to something like $20k or greater (which were like longer term projections that were not really anticipated to happen in the shorter term), but as the BTC price continued to go up, I rejiggered my plans in such a way that caused me to sell way less of my BTC, so by the time we got up to $19,666-ish, I had ended up selling around 12% - or at least that is what my cash to BTC ratio had shown... but anyhow, my networth became quite lopsided in terms of BTC in the supra 90% levels - yet I decided to just let the matter ride - and I don't have any regrets about that.

But, hey each of us is going to come to differing assessments regarding these kinds of matters, and currently as I type, my BTC proportion is around 75% - and for some strange reason, I feel little to no inclination to bring it down to 10%-ish in terms of where I had originally authorized myself to allocate and to invest in that proportion.

Furthermore, I still recommend newbies to target anywhere between 1% to 10% of their investment portfolio to be allocated to BTC.. and I don't find any conflict or contradiction in that kind of a starting off recommendation - either, and of course, individuals may well come to their own conclusions regarding how they would adapt such recommendation to their own situation, including considering whether they would go outside of such range - either lower or higher or some amount that is based upon their own assessment of their own personal situation.

And I too have heard about how "lucky" I have been.  And part of that is likely true!  But your main point is that we who believed that BTC had a great future.  The 2018 - 2020 bear market was brutal, and tested our patience and resolve.

Personally, I feel kind of lucky to have both recognized BTC as a decent investment and also to have acted upon my assessment of the situation.. and also lucky that the BTC price has largely cooperated - even if there had been a few seemingly long slumps along the way.

Edit:  Looks like Jimbo said it first.  Go figure.

Someone (Mark Twain?) once said "Sure I'm lucky and the harder I work the luckier I get".

Hodling sure is hard work.


Also, I will likely trim a bit of my HODLings if we go up more, say, to $15,000 again.  Probably some more at +/-$25k.  More at $40k.  What would I do with the proceeds?  Au & Pt

But I will NEVER sell all my Bitcoin, even if over a $150,000 price...

Finally, fuck yeah!

Your allocation to bitcoin seems a bit whimpy for someone who has studied the space, and sure could be a bit of a problem to be so distracted by shiny metals, even if you are not so negative on bitcoin as peter schiff...    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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October 28, 2020, 07:19:37 AM

Click below link for charts denominated in bitcoin:

Gold, the Nasdaq, banks, bonds, commodities, G4 central banks balance sheet, silver, Amazon, Apple

Quote
Bitcoin is eating the world...

It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.

You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC
https://twitter.com/raoulgmi/status/1321176880477884422

https://youtu.be/Xsp3_a-PMTw
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October 28, 2020, 08:18:48 AM
Last edit: October 28, 2020, 09:13:09 AM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by vapourminer (1), Paashaas (1), JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1), somac. (1), friends1980 (1), BlackHatCoiner (1), rolling (1), gappie (1)

HoDLing Bitcoin and getting rich because of it is not luck.

Luck is when you buy a lottery ticket for $2 and win millions.
Luck is when your father is Jeff Bezos.
Luck is when you inherit some lost uncle's fortune.
Luck is when you happen to be outside when the building collapses.

When you are a normal person, with a normal job, and you risk investing your savings (which took years of hard work to accumulate) in Bitcoin, and slowly build up your stash by adding to it whenever you can, and HoDLing strong through years-long bear periods, all because you believe in what Bitcoin stands for, and see how disruptive and revolutionary this thing is, and then it goes to the moon and you become "fuck you" rich, then, no, it's not luck! It's using your brain and your ability to see the future, not because of some supernatural ability, but by believing (or, even better, understanding) the tech and the mathematics & science involved.

This is who you are, HoDLers:



Edit: Corrected typos.
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October 28, 2020, 08:23:32 AM

Amen, brother!

It seems like there's a shared feeling in the room: even if we are miles away, don't even know each other, there's something to it that can't be said with words.

Go BTC go!
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October 28, 2020, 09:29:25 AM

Hey, I'm receiving some bitcoin on electrum but I'm not getting any confirmations. Are the blocks full or something?
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October 28, 2020, 09:48:43 AM

Hey, I'm receiving some bitcoin on electrum but I'm not getting any confirmations. Are the blocks full or something?

Hash rate has dropped a lot.  So confirms slow up. And fees go up.


https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/0000000000000000000106ead68688daea3e9c75ae627b578fa45173a74b1463
fees were 2.2


https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/0000000000000000000207ab3c4920f2bbafd335578dc346b094277b1872c844
fees were 2.4


https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/0000000000000000000b939aa23faa4c322454ba74444faa95c5723feea4055d
fees were 2.5

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/0000000000000000000889b28b07d0098fa6db2ff3f85d02123ccd90854cd485
fees were 2.2

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/0000000000000000000af7cad2ecb9c73bbe135c2b619c0a673c9025eccf333e
fees were 2.4

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/000000000000000000064d8fe12c72b949e046c292fa746b54dc57c2194358ef
fees were 2.1

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October 28, 2020, 10:34:40 AM

Don't know if you were tracking the BTC/SXP correlation, it was really high for a while.

In the last few days it detached, BTC flew higher while SPX is crashing. Good for hopium while we're waiting for the highest BTC monthly close in its existence.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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October 28, 2020, 10:37:47 AM

So i see we still have few masochists supporting coinbase

It's fine. It's like living with an abusive husband who beats you up when drunk and reports you to the IRS regularly.

well it is a step up from mtgox, sorta
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October 28, 2020, 10:51:40 AM

Hey, I'm receiving some bitcoin on electrum but I'm not getting any confirmations. Are the blocks full or something?

Hit us with the txid, one of us can put it through Via Bitcoin Transaction Accelerator for you.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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October 28, 2020, 11:01:16 AM

Yeah, I sold low back in the day at $3,900 BTC ...13 BTC ..of which I recovered 5 BTC...but then again so keeping score I'm still 8 BTC down, but I was 'retired' on crypto..at the time of this Real Life Issue sale and that got me to $50,700

[...]

and cluelessness has its own adventurious charm, don't ya know...always drama BTC/Crypto...always FOMO/FUD excitement. Smiley

the clueless adventure was and still is the fun part for me.

the last bunch i sold was to officially retire early. i got a bit over 10k(ish) a coin iirc. the price was what it was. there was a fiat number i had in mind, i sold till i hit it. had a plan and did it.. as long as your goal is achieved (and you hopefully still have reserve corn after), well thats the kinda plan that has has worked for me as always, your mileage may very

being retired as covid wandered in was a bonus; no worries about getting sick from work anyway.
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October 28, 2020, 11:03:33 AM

You guys... we are about to take out the lower high that was set after the last parabola.

Let that roll around for a moment... which is about all the time we have, I think.

From a technical perspective, what do you think happens when we close at a higher high than the "dead cat bounce" after Bitcoin died back in 2017?  Not even thinking about the overwhelming fundamentals currently.

Just stop and try to think about the number of bank execs, fund managers, and other financial illuminati who are meeting RIGHT now somewhere in the world as they notice there is a powder keg with a fuse almost burnt all the way down...

I do not know where Proudhon went, but I feel certain he could confirm, scientifically, that we are about to see a very large "Inverse Bearish Spike Indicator".



Bah, he is just showing of, it's just a fancy way of saying "bullish drop indicator".
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October 28, 2020, 11:15:15 AM
Last edit: October 28, 2020, 04:24:31 PM by fillippone
Merited by bitebits (1)

Grayscale published a report on bitcoin adoption.

One table stood out in my opinion:




The only true division between bitcoiner or nocoiner is age.
The future is ours!

Read more on it and download it here



Grayscale is not the only one benefiting from this massive green dildo.
Microstrategy is already thinking about buying even more!



But Micheal Saylor is a real Bitcoin Bull.... I would say he must be a WO regular!


https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921?s=20

While reading this tweet just remember he also hodl the 90% voting rights in MSTRG. So he informed the other managers, but in the end he self-voted his decision.

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October 28, 2020, 11:21:54 AM

Grayscale published a report on bitcoin adoption.

One table stood out in my opinion:




The only true division between bitcoiner or nocoiner is age.
The future is ours!

Read more on it and dowload it here

I don't find it so surprising. Male between 25-50 years old, employed, living in the city and with a tolerance for risk would be the most typical profile of a bitcoin investor.

It is quite similar to the one who buys shares in the stock market or who does all the banking from his mobile.
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October 28, 2020, 11:23:28 AM

Coinbase Pro trading paused for the last 5 minutes...

looked like it was out for an hour or so?

much professional, very uptime

It's technically back up but it's still all fucked up. Balances aren't correct. Orders are going through but the balances are not showing up.


Thought you already was a TROLL



LOL true, who am I kidding. I don't need an excuse to troll.

looked like it was out for an hour or so?

much professional, very uptime

Yeah there are at least three 15min candles missing:

Loading...

Still not enough for me to KYC somewhere else, I'll stick with the shit I know.


So i see we still have few masochists supporting coinbase


Bob is Asian?
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October 28, 2020, 12:23:26 PM

Bull re-group

Thx
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