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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
No, it's coming later this year - 44 (36.7%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25778133 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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October 20, 2020, 02:29:57 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)

snip
Well done 600watt! I would suggest you create a thread outside the WO. You could help a few more bitcoiners with this list. Either way, I'm quoting this as a future reference. And then a question: given the huge amount of sources, what would you personally suggest to start with?
Thank you very much


my favorite is Guy Swann since he is reading a lot of interesting and mainly essential bitcoin writings and sometimes interviews the authors later.

https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy*


*it is now called bitcoinaudible.com but the anchor link above presents it better imho. indeed, Guy started his podcast in March 2018. that is just 2.5 years ago.


most bitcoin podcasters seem to be married to Austrian economics. has anyone heard of a good btc podcast that tries to do this from a Keynesian point of view? I don't get why Keynes is hated so much by bitcoiners. I don't think he was wrong. government intervention in economic crisis is good imho. what governments worldwide did not do was the other thing that is part of keynes theory: in healthy economic periods governments should save capital in order to have dry powder for the next crisis. the governments just kept spending and printing more money.

That's a pretty easy one... I should read ahead since it may have been answered better than I will.

But I would say the reason why is Keynesian systems basically work on debt and constant monetary inflation in the hopes among other things to increase velocity.  Case in point negative interest rates... a Keynesian end game measure that makes no sense until you understand they are useful to keep people from SAVING value.  At least in the monetary system that is run that way.  The encourage spending, and the creation of more debt which increases monetary velocity, and supposedly also creates better "wealth distribution".

Bitcoin on the other hand is at it's very core kind of anti Keynesian.  Absolutely hard with a known cap.  It encourages people to store value and save.  And would arguably decrease monetary velocity.  Paul Krugman is a Keynesian.  And he hates bitcoin because it goes against all of what he believes as the right monetary policies.

I am not saying that there can't be Keynesian bitcoiners.  Some people here are Keynsian whether they know it or not... But Bitcoin is definitely a polarizing force.

If you are a leftist you will find a lot of what Keynesian systems prioritize meshing with your values... It is also why so many libertarians got into bitcoin early.

I do not disagree with anything that you say, cAPSLOCK.

I do find a bit of tension between bitcoin and some of the values that seem to underly the debt-ridden systems that seem to have gotten themselves into bigger and BIGGER messes with the passage of time. 

I don't want to claim to be any kind of philosopher either, but sometimes, it seems to me that some folks seem to equate all state actions with irresponsibility, and none of us can really deny that the level of corruptness that seems to have come from the current status of money printing causes the state to get blamed for everything - and then the solutions seem to be anti-state - and really I have difficult times believing that all societal problems are going to get resolved through voluntary-isms... so in some sense there seems to be some needs for public oriented institutions to take care of and ration public issues / resources that would not likely get resolved with pure volunary-ism systems.

So merely because states have been irresponsible in their money printing does not seems to suggest, at least for me, that their are no state roles - and hopefully bitcoin can help to bring (create incentives for) some responsibility to state actors to act in the public interest. 

I would suggest that even though bitcoin maximalist may have strong libertarian tendencies, there still are various gradations of ideas and even gradation of recognition of needs for the state - even if many folks will ongoingly get frustrated with various actions of the state and even individual players who are abusive when they are in governmental roles and they are supposed to be representing public interests rather than their own or some more narrow interests that conflict with broader public concerns/preferences.
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October 20, 2020, 02:35:31 AM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

I use BTCPay on our website. It integrates easily with Woocommerce.

Cool, just found this open source PoS project for BTCPay:  https://github.com/arcbtc/M5StackSats

We're still early days here but the new Breez wallet announcement gives me a lot of faith that Lightning is nearly ready for everyone.

Nice. But we need NFC payment so we can distribute something like these to people on board:

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be constructive or S.T.F.U


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October 20, 2020, 02:56:41 AM
Merited by Biodom (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), 600watt (1)

I wonder how long until we reach a new yearly high?



With S2F




Warning!! This is more of a wish, rather than actual analysis.
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October 20, 2020, 03:05:38 AM

Or they did.

Hopefully but if they did they should not have had a problem weathering even a few years.

True, but why pour money down the well if you can go to the BTCeach instead.    
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October 20, 2020, 03:23:13 AM

Or they did. 

Hopefully but if they did they should not have had a problem weathering even a few years.

Or with hundreds of btc to their names they said fuck this shit. I am moving to costa rica.
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October 20, 2020, 03:34:05 AM

I wonder how long until we reach a new yearly high?



With S2F




Warning!! This is more of a wish, rather than actual analysis.

Noice! your wish is mine as well, can WO altogether provide some mental push?
It would be not unlike a "divine wind", perhaps...not very divine, of course...just strong hopium, the strongest there is.
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Clueless!


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October 20, 2020, 03:40:00 AM

Or they did. 

Hopefully but if they did they should not have had a problem weathering even a few years.

Or with hundreds of btc to their names they said fuck this shit. I am moving to costa rica.

I wish in 2-3 years, BTC pumps say 4x, 6x 18x.... so I too can make 'dubious' decisions to go elsewhere..find the Trophy Wife...get divorced....have a 'wealth' related breakdown

....you know...living the dream! Smiley (Sorry, only have T.V. soap operas to base this on ..if i was to have this kind of wealth...so just kibbitzing here) Smiley
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October 20, 2020, 04:12:31 AM

Or they did. 

Hopefully but if they did they should not have had a problem weathering even a few years.

Or with hundreds of btc to their names they said fuck this shit. I am moving to costa rica.

I wish in 2-3 years, BTC pumps say 4x, 6x 18x.... so I too can make 'dubious' decisions to go elsewhere..find the Trophy Wife...get divorced....have a 'wealth' related breakdown

....you know...living the dream! Smiley (Sorry, only have T.V. soap operas to base this on ..if i was to have this kind of wealth...so just kibbitzing here) Smiley

Well, some people pursue "girlfriend experience". No long term affects, apart from political ones... remember that guy (Spitzer or something)?
Not for me, though.

Recently I started to think about it ..and it all depends if the flow of btc liquidations from those who 'made it' in 20K-120K range would be weak enough to overcome the 'wall of money" of new buyers.
Sometimes I think that "liquidators" can keep the price below 50K for a decade until almost all hodlers of the first 50% btc (that were mined) sell out.
Other times I think that new money flow could be so strong that sellouts would be overwhelmed anyway.
JayJuanGee
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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October 20, 2020, 05:39:16 AM
Last edit: October 20, 2020, 06:11:22 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2), d_eddie (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Or they did.

Hopefully but if they did they should not have had a problem weathering even a few years.

Or with hundreds of btc to their names they said fuck this shit. I am moving to costa rica.

You are thinking that 200 BTC is enough?

or does the amount need to be a wee bit more?

Hey, if such bar/restaurant does NOT pay as much as the saved (stacked) BTC, then why work? Even if such working BTC HODLer might feel like s/he/they is doing a good thing for society or the BTC community by selling food, drinks and services for BTC?  

When s/he/they might be able to exercise an option of NOT working and sustaining him/her themselves in a similar standard of living - sans the drolling obligations of work?

Reminds me a little bit of a waiter that I met in a restaurant a few weeks back.  He was probably a few years older than me, and we knew some of the same people my age around the area that I would have gone to school with, so we had some similar child roots.  My eating companions introduced me to him as someone from the area, and told him that I had recently travelled back to the area.  The waiter asked me what I did for a living, and I said that I did not really do much of anything in recent years, except travel.  I said that I had been working a few years ago, but I was largely done with working and I was in the midst of planning another trip.. trying to decide where to go, exactly.. based on some current difficult world-wide dynamics.  

Out of familiarity, he seemed to have shown himself to be a bit bitter about my current status, and made a remark to suggest that I should still be working.  I was caught off guard by the directness of his hostility, and I did not want to say anything to make him feel worse or to cause more resentment from him because in some ways I know that I am privileged to have gotten to a status in life where I don't really do much of anything except for projects that I want to do, but it was not like I had opportunities in life that would have been greater than his opportunities.. we came from a similar place, and we were about the same age..   In essence, I started from very modest means, and he seemed to have recognized that, so it seems that I just may have made some better choices along the way... (and maybe got lucky by some of those choices, too) seems to me.

Anyhow, back to the original topic regarding whether we might want to have a J.O.B., even if we have other options.. sure.. I believe that we all might not mind contributing to society in some kinds of ways, perhaps?, but by the time we get to a certain age, there may be fewer reasons that we want to contribute in ways that are not really of our own choosing.. so maybe we would prefer to contribute, if at all, in ways that are completely of our own choosing, right?

Even the most pleasant of J.O.B.s, might start to feel a bit taxing when the quantity of BTC that we have in our wallet(s) might facilitate other seemingly better options.. meaning that we might start to have options to NOT be tied to certain J.O.B.s, that tie us down geographically or in activities at times that are NOT really of our choosing, right?

Even the boss and the owner likely has obligations that get to be too much, and surely if working as an hourly or tips based employee, the feelings of routine might feel even worse to be stuck with fewer options, no?

By the way, for my own calculations of "fuck you" status, I have recently revised my old numbers to convert away from the 200-week moving average to the 208-week moving average.  I am thinking that I prefer the 208-week moving average because it is more closely aligned to 4 years, and gives me a little bit more conservative number... but even the 208-week moving average is at nearly $6,700, currently as I type this post - and so it is only about $250 lower than the 200-week moving average (at about $6,950)... I would rather error in my own personal calculations on the side of a wee bit more conservative....

So, the 208-week moving average gives "fuck you" status at about 298.5 BTC (presuming a $2 million dollar entry level, yet understandable that different WO peeps are going to find their "fuck you" entry level target amount to be in differing places - even though I consider $2 million to be largely workable and reasonable overall as a hypothetical entry level for "fuck you" status... maybe 10 years ago $1 million would have been reasonable.. and maybe 10 years from now, $4 million will be reasonable, as a "fuck you" status entry level.. .overall, it probably depends upon how inflation continues.. but surely based on the practice of debt economies (Keynesian, money printer go Bbbbbrrrrrr, style) we would expect ongoing inflation of around doubling or so in the next 10 years-ish?)...
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October 20, 2020, 05:47:54 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (10), JayJuanGee (1)

Concerning today's price and accumulation efforts:



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Welcome to Costco. I love you.


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October 20, 2020, 07:00:16 AM

Observing $11,800 USD/BTC
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Flippin' burgers since 1163.


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October 20, 2020, 07:27:13 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)

https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1318181034169683968

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Bitcoin's cyclical behaviour is difficult to escape from.
Same week 4 years ago, Bitcoin was trying to finally break the 50% bear market fib retracement.
It never looked back after that & tested ATH by January.
This time it's different?

[...]

From this point in the last cycle, Bitcoin did a 30x in a little over a year.
Going from $700 to $20k in 12 months was pretty much unthinkable.
Happened though!
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Observing No-Coiners.


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October 20, 2020, 07:35:12 AM

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Observing No-Coiners.


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October 20, 2020, 07:38:23 AM

Jeff Bridges diagnosed with lymphoma  Sad

Read it too ..... I’m getting depressed by sh*t like that
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October 20, 2020, 07:46:34 AM

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/10/19/bitcoin-is-braced-for-a-bombshell-from-fed-chairman-jerome-powell/
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Be a bank


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October 20, 2020, 08:02:56 AM
Last edit: October 20, 2020, 08:41:33 AM by Last of the V8s
Merited by El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)


yep here's the speech, dull though it is

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-jegM5q-yo&feature=youtu.be&t=535

LIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks to the IMF on digital currencies [CBDC's]

Brr man speaks

and here's our pal Pal's pre-emptive shill/response, dull but outlines the cbdc thing pretty well
https://youtu.be/qL2LfVRl3J0 The Bitcoin Life Raft: The End of Monetary & Fiscal Policy As We Know It (w/ Raoul Pal)

Quote
Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, breaks down the events leading to the recent tidal wave of interest in Central Bank Digital Currencies. He touches on the various crises that have encouraged the rampant printing by central banks and the destructive consequences this has left in its wake. Touting Bitcoin as the unkillable “cockroach of finance” and the life raft for this transitional period in history, Raoul sees CBDCs as the killer of stable coins and the start of a new era in the world of monetary and fiscal policy - the first major steps of technology eating the traditional finance world. Pal says that all of the macro signals are pointing towards a major shift in how the system is run. He cites the allowance of banking custody for crypto assets by regulators, major corporate treasuries investing in Bitcoin, and new types of banks, such as Kraken, all as pivotal events in the coming shift to a digital asset world. Filmed on October 18, 2020.
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October 20, 2020, 08:29:30 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1), 600watt (1), Karartma1 (1), aesma (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

me - bitcoin

them - omg omg omg bitcoin? but that uses up all the planet's scarce resources, i literally can't breathe because of your funny internet game tokens

me - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/introducing-cbpi-a-new-way-to-measure-bitcoin-network-electrical-consumption

them - that's a lot of words, I have sandalwood chopping boards to craft and you want to literally starve me to death

me - tl;dr:


them - yeah i don't know much about science, but i know what i like

me - (barely resisting the urge to literally stop them breathing) have fun staying poor

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October 20, 2020, 08:33:35 AM
Merited by fillippone (2)



from https://twitter.com/propelforward/status/1318340321701396481

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a #thread on the #FinCEN $60mm civil money penalty assesed against #harmon related to #Helix #crypto tumbler as a service that was used to launder #bitcoin for much of the dark web. Buckle up. Allegations is ugly. 1/x
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October 20, 2020, 08:38:49 AM

WHAT IS THIS ?!

A PUMP FOR ANTS ?!???


Not so much a green dildo, as a mint butt plug.

But hey... us ants appreciate it.

I'm feeling a tingling down there... must be the mint.
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October 20, 2020, 08:48:11 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

10000€ yesterday.

I decided to stop my experiment "trading" BTC, after 6 months. It worked about as intended, if the price goes back to what it was in April, I will have grown the starting capital both in BTC and EUR, but my hodler self is taking over so I don't want to sell anymore BTC. I have cancelled all my sell orders and only kept my buy orders. I have a decent EUR stash to buy BTC when/if it goes down again. Next time I do some trading I will probably start with EUR only, with the goal to only grow the EUR stash (and spend the gains buying BTC, for example).

Overall I think I sold less BTC than I would have otherwise, because pumps always made my heart pump, while with this strategy ups and downs led to excitement, but I've had enough excitement for a while. And I believe more and more, with what's happening with central banks, that BTC is destined to go to 6 digits in a few years at most.
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