Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

The.Book.of.Boba.Fett straight up retarded beyond description and literally stole storyiine from John Carter Warlord of Mars.

It's made by Disney, so what do people expect. Probably chock full of woke feminist bs too.

Disney has really screwed the pooch with Star Wars. I expect that they will ruin any decent IP that they get their hands on.

The only good SW movie of the Disney era was Rogue One, and Kathleen Kennedy hated both the movie and the director. So that speaks volumes.

[Torque]

@bitharington
2021 was important for Bitcoin. All the famous Bitcoin influencers, the TA accounts, the on-chain accounts: Everybody was wrong, everybody was too bullish. 2021 showed how everybody is clueless. Long term Bitcoin goes up, and that's it. We're all equal. All we need more patience.
https://twitter.com/bitharington/status/1476183257549058051?s=21


@scottmelker
Trader schizophrenia is real.

The same people in my feed who were bullish at resistance a couple of days ago are posting endless bear porn now at support.

It's a great window into the psychology of humans and the reason that almost all traders fail.
https://twitter.com/scottmelker/status/1476194013082492937?s=21

Bitcoin makes it's biggest, fastest gains when no one is paying attention any longer, when no one cares. (Look at Sept 2020 to Jan 2021.)

When they all start FOMO jumping on the bull bandwagon in unison is when the price disappoints.

That is why I said that this market likes to make "a fool of the bulls". I didn't mean long term bull HODLers, I meant the short term get-rich-quick daytarders who get made out as fools.

[cAPSLOCK]

@bitharington
2021 was important for Bitcoin. All the famous Bitcoin influencers, the TA accounts, the on-chain accounts: Everybody was wrong, everybody was too bullish. 2021 showed how everybody is clueless. Long term Bitcoin goes up, and that's it. We're all equal. All we need more patience.
https://twitter.com/bitharington/status/1476183257549058051?s=21


@scottmelker
Trader schizophrenia is real.

The same people in my feed who were bullish at resistance a couple of days ago are posting endless bear porn now at support.

It's a great window into the psychology of humans and the reason that almost all traders fail.
https://twitter.com/scottmelker/status/1476194013082492937?s=21

Bitcoin makes it's biggest, fastest gains when no one is paying attention any longer, when no one cares. (Look at Sept 2020 to Jan 2021.)

When they all start FOMO jumping on the bull bandwagon in unison is when the price disappoints.

That is why I said that this market likes to make "a fool of the bulls". I didn't mean long term bull HODLers, I meant the short term get-rich-quick daytarders who get made out as fools.

This particular moment has been extremely fascinating to me.  Because it's like a bunch of children have been waiting all year for Christmas to come, and on the day they ran into the room with the tree... and nothing.  No tree.  No presents... nothing.

This is a first for the class of '17.  All of them talking about cycles and making bullish prophecies.  But forgetting that as soon as the majority expect a thing in a market, the market typically will punish them because smarter folks are taking the other side of that trade.

The fact that this whole disconnect happens around the end of the year makes it all the more sweet/disgusting.  Because bitcoin does not give a flying fart about 2021, or 2022.  

Here is where we are currently... It will no longer be valid by the time most read this.

[tertius993]

MicroStrategy.

124,391 BTC

~

$5.9 billion

Stock market-cap of the company:
$6.251 billion

The stock price seems undervalued considering before they started to buy BTC MicroStrategy's market-cap was already $1.5billion.

For anyone not wanting to own BTC directly for whatever reason (storing keys or whatever) buying MS shares seems a safe bet at the moment.

Not sure their underlying business is in very good shape - looking at their latest quarterly results: recurring revenue (very important for a software business) is down year on year; operating losses are up year on year, losses per share has more than doubled.  Most critically they are now highly exposed to bitcoin volatility, and that will almost certainly far outweigh the contribution of their core business.  I suspect the business focus is now prioritising bitcoin acquisition above anything else.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

MicroStrategy.

124,391 BTC

~

$5.9 billion

Stock market-cap of the company:
$6.251 billion

The stock price seems undervalued considering before they started to buy BTC MicroStrategy's market-cap was already $1.5billion.

For anyone not wanting to own BTC directly for whatever reason (storing keys or whatever) buying MS shares seems a safe bet at the moment.

Not sure their underlying business is in very good shape - looking at their latest quarterly results: recurring revenue (very important for a software business) is down year on year; operating losses are up year on year, losses per share has more than doubled.  Most critically they are now highly exposed to bitcoin volatility, and that will almost certainly far outweigh the contribution of their core business.  I suspect the business focus is now prioritising bitcoin acquisition above anything else.

What you say is true, however most companies are in bad shape and moving in a more negative direction every year. The big difference is that these zombie companies just keep taking on more debt to pay operating costs and buyback shares, while their profits continue to flatline or fall. They'll keep doing this until the decide they can't keep the ruse going any longer (usually debt level climbing to around 25-30% of equity value) and sell out to a much larger company.

If I was going to do a M&A, I'd much rather buy a company with bitcoin asset on its balance sheet, than one with a whopping pile of debt. I'd also rather own the stock of a company that had bitcoin assets, than one that had a huge pile of debt.

[tertius993]

MicroStrategy.

124,391 BTC

~

$5.9 billion

Stock market-cap of the company:
$6.251 billion

The stock price seems undervalued considering before they started to buy BTC MicroStrategy's market-cap was already $1.5billion.

For anyone not wanting to own BTC directly for whatever reason (storing keys or whatever) buying MS shares seems a safe bet at the moment.

Not sure their underlying business is in very good shape - looking at their latest quarterly results: recurring revenue (very important for a software business) is down year on year; operating losses are up year on year, losses per share has more than doubled.  Most critically they are now highly exposed to bitcoin volatility, and that will almost certainly far outweigh the contribution of their core business.  I suspect the business focus is now prioritising bitcoin acquisition above anything else.

What you say is true, however most companies are in bad shape and moving in a more negative direction every year. The big difference is that these zombie companies just keep taking on more debt to pay operating costs and buyback shares, while their profits continue to flatline or fall. They'll keep doing this until the decide they can't keep the ruse going any longer (usually debt level climbing to around 25-30% of equity value) and sell out to a much larger company.

If I was going to do a M&A, I'd much rather buy a company with bitcoin asset on its balance sheet, than one with a whopping pile of debt. I'd also rather own the stock of a company that had bitcoin assets, than one that had a huge pile of debt.

That would depend entirely on what they were doing with that debt, the terms it was on and the fundamentals of the underlying business.  I personally would rather buy a strong company with good prospects for future growth and profits irrespective of any particular assets it might hold. 

Regarding debt: Microstrategy has $2.5Bn of debt against $0.5Bn in shareholder equity ... see here: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSTR/microstrategy/debt-equity-ratio

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

...i suggest to post where EVERYBODY agreed to post about this topic.

EVERYBODY? Really?

When it comes to Biodom, what else is new?  a wee bit of hyperbole seems to just roll off his tongue.

[Biodom]

@jjg-well, you can have ALL wishful thinking if you want it..peak in october..no, peak in november...no..peak in december...no, it is now Feb or March or September of 2022.
Scientific method suggests that you don't move the goalposts, but analyze the available data.
The data suggests that S2F is off the rails. Nothing personal.

Regarding the "other" thing-if you (or anybody else), personally, want this board to be overran with endless virus or political musing, so be it, but you WONT LIKE it.
I, personally, don't care about seeing the opposing opinions as i have a rather thick skin, but it seems that some people here are easily triggered when they see something political that they don't like. Namecalling ensues.

But, shit, let's go ahead and ruin this place for everybody with endless politicos and virus.
Let's make it another twitter or facebook /s

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cygan]

which of you did this yesterday?


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1476559109541576705

[Biodom]

which of you did this yesterday?


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1476559109541576705

likely moved by mostly dormant BTCtalk account.

[serveria.com]

which of you did this yesterday?


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1476559109541576705

Oh sorry guys, my bad, moving some bitcoin dust...  

[shahzadafzal]

which of you did this yesterday?


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1476559109541576705

Oh sorry guys, my bad, moving some bitcoin dust...   

[JayJuanGee]

Likewise if the year closes below $48K support, price might be in trouble.

Should probably have extended this to end of week, but without price bouncing back by tomorrow, sounds about right now.

To the extent that any of this matters, it's a nail biter.. coming down to the final wires... very scary.....















NOT






 

Ultimately I think Covid itself is going to take care of it disappearing / possibly already has done that: mutating into a less deadly strain and that's that.
I can believe the vaccination helped many people from dying, certainly those with a compromised immune system.

I totally agree.

Were all the lockdowns / mask wearing / vaccinating healthy people necessary? I have my doubts.
I can take part in all that as that is what is required in many places by law but still have those doubts.

We will never find out what it would be like without the restrictions. But I know that if it helped to save even a single person from death or severe illness it can be justified.

I would not proclaim myself as any kind of virus denier, so maybe in the beginning there would have been some kind of justification for travel restrictions just to attempt to figure out some of the impact aspects of the virus, but the shifting narratives and the various ways to attempt to describe the vaccines as the solution, but then to later assert that the virus is getting worse even though a lot of people complied with the vaccines, then it seems to have become a way to pit vaccinated against unvaccinated and to turn the whole thing into a bunch of contradictions that largely seem to be aimed at merely getting citizen compliance rather than really having scientific justifications.

Accordingly seems to be a kind of preparation for the cyber virus pandemic, that will cause us to have to disconnect from the internet for various periods of time and even to suffer from internet outages.. blah blah blah.  This was mentioned around minute 35 on today's BitcoinMagazine interview with Alex McShane.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

For people wondering when we see first Webb images.

It takes ~6 months when Webb telescoop moved into position, deployment and calibrating his instruments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8Skc-JqWLE

[vapourminer]

For people wondering when we see first Webb images.

[Biodom]

For people wondering when we see first Webb images.

that's funny.