Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

It is starting to look like the market might need some fresh air here if you're looking at a far enough away chart.  I think it's likely in the short term we see a drop and a serious retest of how low the market is willing to go.  Then maybe we'll be able to break free of this resistance and head up to $30,000 in a flash.  Until that happens, I think $10K is still on the table, as far fetched as it might feel at the moment.  A rejection here back down to the $16K range would look pretty devastating on a chart, so I'm crossing my fingers we don't correct very far.

[OutOfMemory]

OT:

Gotcha, C-2022-3 (ZTF) 
In the first clear night, to be precise, eight clear hours at night, with the moon about 3/4 full.
Did four sessions at 1-2 hours exposure each. With moonshine from behind, from the side, finally without moonshine too, when high fog came up and the telescope began to look more at the roof of the house than the comet. Though, i was lucky on the first two tries. I have to process a lot of data manually over the course of the next few days, being curious about the final results.

Here's a single 60 second frame, with quick and dirty optimisation done in Photoshop:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

So + 25 points as expected


https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rate-hike-february-2023




"Today's Developments
Watch Live: Federal Reserve News Conference
Watch Live: Federal Reserve News Conference
Watch Live: Federal Reserve News Conference
Play video: Watch Live: Federal Reserve News Conference
Stocks pared declines—with the Nasdaq recently flipping to a slight gain—after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.5%-4.75%, slowing increases for the second consecutive meeting.

That gives officials more time to study the effects of its tightening as they debate how long to continue raising rates and how long to hold them at that higher level. ..."


And btc is back around 23.1k

we peaked near 23.9k on the 29th

with the expected +25 points I am think we drift upwards a bit soon.

We get a CPI on Feb 14th for the month of January
Then a CPI on March 14th for February

if they drift under 6% maybe we go flat for March fed rate

15% shot predicted for that. see below

https://twitter.com/StackerSatoshi/status/1620864600265658370?

[estenity]

BTC longs vs shorts ratio: longs presently dominant,
but it changes all the time..

https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio

too many CEX remaining...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Still ranging, wondering if the recent pump has legs? We’re up over 30% in the last month which is pretty significant. What kind of price confirms the start of a new bull market, maybe $30,000?

I’d like to see us break & hold $25,000. Maybe we need a retest of $20,000 to confirm that $15,500 was indeed the bottom.

So many questions but only answered with time. Whatever, HODLERS not affected.

[AlcoHoDL]

It certainly looks like $24,000 will be broken tonight. 

[...]

Whatever, HODLERS not affected.

Exactly!

[bitserve]

[Lainta]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $1.8 billion Burling Bank to become the first FDIC-insured chartered retail bank to offer #Bitcoin    buying, custody and rewards 🙌

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1620833041622142976?t=7jFgqgTNYgL21TnsZnpCrA&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

Error
Sorry, the requested media could not be found. It may have expired or been deleted.

Uh, bummer? I guess?

[xhomerx10]

Error
Sorry, the requested media could not be found. It may have expired or been deleted.

Uh, bummer? I guess?

 That brought back some bad memories.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

@jjg..well, $19,798 is pretty much 20K in my book (according to rounding rules), but it is a minor point....that you seem to be awfully sensitive about.

BTW, the average price of btc between Dec 2017 and today is also quite surprising (not!) $20.3K...how does this reflect on DCA vs bulk purchase debate?
Basically, you could have DCAed weekly since 5 years ago (or 260 weeks) and your average would have been more than btc price just a month ago (only 4wk or 1.5% of the putative DCA time).
This shows, in my opinion, that better strategy in bitcoin is to have a large stash of cash and to wait for more than 60-70% decline from the recent ATH, then pounce at once or in a few big "gulps".

Rounding rules? that is not how it works in economics. Either something has hit $20000 or it has not. You cannot round up values rounding up is only done to estimate something but is not used for speculation because it would skew the numbers to much and any speculation or prediction based on rounding up will be greatly wrong even if they have a good argument. Do not round up unless you are estimating small numbers when it is big numbers like 20000 you will be greatly out of any prediction or analysis.

economics? 19798 vs 20000 is about 1.1% difference, so, if you don't perform many additional calculations, approximation is fine.
For example, my thesis was that "If in about 5 years (early 2028) bitcoin is 25.5k (now it is 23k vs 20K in Dec 2017, so a similar small rise with lots of down and up volatility in between), would you be content?"

if you replace 20K by 19798, then the appreciation since Dec 2017 until 23K (which was the price at the time of original post) would be 16.17% vs 15% in my calculation.
Perhaps, i should have wrote $26.7K instead of 25.5K in 2028, but it is still within 5%.
The main point was not the exact number , but how we would perceive the situation if it repeats itself in the next 5 years.
BTW, bitcoin price is not an absolute and it did hit 20K and slightly above on some major exchanges.
@jjg thinks that we somehow made an explicit promise to only quote bitstamp, but I don't acknowledge it (no promise on my part).

[Biodom]

@jjg..sorry, I am too "beat up" at work this week to post numbers, will try to sum it up sometime during the weekend and/or on Fri...

[philipma1957]

@jjg..sorry, I am too "beat up" at work this week to post numbers, will try to sum it up sometime during the weekend and/or on Fri...

Yeah well I am prepped for 10 years of sideways motion.

Check what gold did from 1992 to 2001

no reason btc can't do exactly that.

20k-35k for 10 years in a row is certainly one possibility.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

20k-35k for 10 years in a row is certainly one possibility.

thanks for killing my buzz man