Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[spooderman]

just here to see if chartbuddy is a legend yet....

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now?

Hey: 230. That's something...

 

[Fatman3001]

40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now?

Hey: 230. That's something...

 

What happened to you... this time?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now?

Hey: 230. That's something...

 

What happened to you... this time?

I done wrong, Fatman. I trolled and evaded and all sorts of ridiculous nonsense. I'm a guilty man

[Cconvert2G36]

40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now?

Hey: 230. That's something...

 

Cripplecoiners vs CIA Blacklisters

Much hand wringing.

Price like the topography of Kansas.
A portly asian man repeatedly imploring us to notice his cocktail weenie.  

[Fatman3001]

40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now?

Hey: 230. That's something...

 

What happened to you... this time?

I done wrong, Fatman. I trolled and evaded and all sorts of ridiculous nonsense. I'm a guilty man

Man! You just have got a demon baby inside you!

Don't let the demon baby fly!!!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now?

Hey: 230. That's something...

 

Cripplecoiners vs CIA Blacklisters

Much hand wringing.

Price like the topography of Kansas.
A portly asian man repeatedly imploring us to notice his cocktail weenie.  

Oh. The deep philosophical divide regarding the governance of an open source protocol. That's been months of fun, that debate.

Glad to be home

[shmadz]

40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now?

Hey: 230. That's something...

 

Welcome back! Heh, yeah, 230 ain't bad. Much closer to equilibrium than say, 1000 or 100.

Speaking of equilibrium, I think cost of mining is still around 165 from my own experiential calculations.

If the price were truly too low, we should see it reflected in a falling hashrate. When the price is too high, the hashrate will increase until the expense of securing the Blockchain roughly equals the economic benefit.

Mmmm that maybe wasn't quite so clear, let me demonstrate with pictures...



As you can see, hashrate and price are somewhat correlated. You can see the stagnation in 2012, the big run up in 2013, and now in later 2014 and 2015, the price declines to seek equilibrium with cost. I expect the hashrate should stay relatively flat until some major change in the dynamic (reward halving, block size resolution, BIS confirming that bitcoin will replace the SDR)

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Is anyone out there capable of overlaying a time-equivalent price chart on top of that hashrate chart?

I think it might look interesting.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

^How do I upvote this?

I think it will take me a while to readjust

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[suda123]

40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now?

Hey: 230. That's something...

 

Cripplecoiners vs CIA Blacklisters

Much hand wringing.

Price like the topography of Kansas.
A portly asian man repeatedly imploring us to notice his cocktail weenie.  

**Cripplecoiners vs CIA Blacklisters **


LOL

[Cconvert2G36]

Welcome back! Heh, yeah, 230 ain't bad. Much closer to equilibrium than say, 1000 or 100.

Speaking of equilibrium, I think cost of mining is still around 165 from my own experiential calculations.

If the price were truly too low, we should see it reflected in a falling hashrate. When the price is too high, the hashrate will increase until the expense of securing the Blockchain roughly equals the economic benefit.

Mmmm that maybe wasn't quite so clear, let me demonstrate with pictures...



As you can see, hashrate and price are somewhat correlated. You can see the stagnation in 2012, the big run up in 2013, and now in later 2014 and 2015, the price declines to seek equilibrium with cost. I expect the hashrate should stay relatively flat until some major change in the dynamic (reward halving, block size resolution, BIS confirming that bitcoin will replace the SDR)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is anyone out there capable of overlaying a time-equivalent price chart on top of that hashrate chart?

I think it might look interesting.

My personal impression is that hash rate is dictated by price and (more importantly?) technology, with rate reacting to price and not the inverse. The two big ramps were directly related to a paradigm shift in mining tech, CPU to GPU, and GPU to ASIC. With ASIC gear becoming increasingly efficient we will probably see a rise in hashrate even in the face of a flat or modestly declining price. The upcoming halving should be pretty interesting for those watching this relationship. 

[shmadz]

^How do I upvote this?

I think it will take me a while to readjust

Over here all we got is +1 ...

I can't do an overlay on my phone (actually I probably could, but I don't know how)

Anyways, here is rough abstraction of how I expect price and hashrate to correlate.



Something like that I guess?

[shmadz]

My personal impression is that hash rate is dictated by price and (more importantly?) technology, with rate reacting to price and not the inverse. The two big ramps were directly related to a paradigm shift in mining tech, CPU to GPU, and GPU to ASIC. With ASIC gear becoming increasingly efficient we will probably see a rise in hashrate even in the face of a flat or modestly declining price. The upcoming halving should be pretty interesting for those watching this relationship.  

Agreed. Hashrate should follow price, but it seems like during those two massive increases it was the price chasing the hashrate.... Someone better suited to scientific analysis of data sets would do a better job of analyzing this relationship ( hint, hint, Professor Stolfi )  

Anyways, I don't expect any further large expansions in mining technology or efficiency, certainly nothing on the scale of cpu>gpu>asic.  

Many people mocked me many pages ago for my concern that the block size could not simply scale exponentially for the next 20 years, but I still believe we are reaching the limits of physics and any further significant exponential type gains in computing power beyond asic will likely take us beyond the singularity. I just hope our new synthetic overlords accept bitcoin. (Ok, yes, I've been watching too much humans (tv show))

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Cconvert2G36]

My personal impression is that hash rate is dictated by price and (more importantly?) technology, with rate reacting to price and not the inverse. The two big ramps were directly related to a paradigm shift in mining tech, CPU to GPU, and GPU to ASIC. With ASIC gear becoming increasingly efficient we will probably see a rise in hashrate even in the face of a flat or modestly declining price. The upcoming halving should be pretty interesting for those watching this relationship.  

Agreed. Hashrate should follow price, but it seems like during those two massive increases it was the price chasing the hashrate.... Someone better suited to scientific analysis of data sets would do a better job of analyzing this relationship ( hint, hint, Professor Stolfi )  

Anyways, I don't expect any further large expansions in mining technology or efficiency, certainly nothing on the scale of cpu>gpu>asic.  

Many people mocked me many pages ago for my concern that the block size could not simply scale exponentially for the next 20 years, but I still believe we are reaching the limits of physics and any further significant exponential type gains in computing power beyond asic will likely take us beyond the singularity. I just hope our new synthetic overlords accept bitcoin. (Ok, yes, I've been watching too much humans (tv show))

The big difference this time around... We have our own little OPEC (OCDM organization of chip designing miners), with apparently only bitmain selling next gen hardware to the small fish. Small fish are more likely to mine and hoard, using it almost as a form of indirect purchase. The current dynamic makes me think that as a percentage, more coins are being mined and sold than in days of yore. The days of mining at a loss with your gaming rig in 2012 are surely over.

[BitThink]

My personal impression is that hash rate is dictated by price and (more importantly?) technology, with rate reacting to price and not the inverse. The two big ramps were directly related to a paradigm shift in mining tech, CPU to GPU, and GPU to ASIC. With ASIC gear becoming increasingly efficient we will probably see a rise in hashrate even in the face of a flat or modestly declining price. The upcoming halving should be pretty interesting for those watching this relationship.  

Agreed. Hashrate should follow price, but it seems like during those two massive increases it was the price chasing the hashrate.... Someone better suited to scientific analysis of data sets would do a better job of analyzing this relationship ( hint, hint, Professor Stolfi )  

Anyways, I don't expect any further large expansions in mining technology or efficiency, certainly nothing on the scale of cpu>gpu>asic.  

Many people mocked me many pages ago for my concern that the block size could not simply scale exponentially for the next 20 years, but I still believe we are reaching the limits of physics and any further significant exponential type gains in computing power beyond asic will likely take us beyond the singularity. I just hope our new synthetic overlords accept bitcoin. (Ok, yes, I've been watching too much humans (tv show))

Block size has almost nothing to do with the hashing. The concern is the bandwidth and storage space, not the CPU. Validation of transactions is much faster than mining, and even today's PC can handle validating all transactions in 20M block. So the main question is whether the network bandwidth and storage space will increase exponentially for next 20 years, not the CPU.