Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[blunderer]

Intel: Chips To Get Slower
http://qntra.net/2016/02/intel-chips-to-get-slower/

sry gavin

ZOMG, stocking up on current procs because scarce & valuable!! In the future, my boxen'll be worth millions!!11!

[billyjoeallen]

No crash the price is swinging right now hope by tomorrow reach 410 $
good luck

uh, no. after every Four Punch Raid, there is a gradual dissipation of all upward momentum before the next crash. This has happened at least five times now.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Karartma1]

Intel: Chips To Get Slower
http://qntra.net/2016/02/intel-chips-to-get-slower/

sry gavin

Good to know, we all knew this was coming sooner or later.

In the near future not regressing in performance will be the hope.

So, welcome to the future everyone

[conspirosphere.tk]

Of course. Central planning has proven to be the superior economic method. The free (not fee) market is so overrated.

Free market is not free shit.

[Fatman3001]

Of course. Central planning has proven to be the superior economic method. The free (not fee) market is so overrated.

Free market is not free shit.

That's not for you to decide.

It can be.

Nodes offer their services for free, so you've got free shit right there.

[blunderer]

Of course. Central planning has proven to be the superior economic method. The free (not fee) market is so overrated.

Free market is not free shit.

Lol, he was being sarcastic.

"A nigger don't know when he has a friend."--Flannery O'conner

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[MatTheCat]

No crash the price is swinging right now hope by tomorrow reach 410 $
good luck

uh, no. after every Four Punch Raid, there is a gradual dissipation of all upward momentum before the next crash. This has happened at least five times now.

Indeed...doubt there are many traders chomping at the bit to go long Bitcoin right at this point in time. Market machinations like we have seen only seek to undermine trader/investor confidence in the market. Bulls n bears alike will have been left flabbergasted (not to mention out of pocket) by recent inexplicable market manoeuvres. 

I cant be the only trader who has come to the conclusion that enough is enough, and who is  picking up his ball and leaving the game. Enough people like me, and you would have to think that the recent market machinations are producing plenty more like me, and what you have is a steady liquidity leak from the market, which means that BTC must go down....

[Andre#]

Here are some more FACTS for you:

After I made my last post I sent transaction to myself, confirmed no problems AS ALWAYS. About 4 min in-fact, you beauty. https://blockchain.info/tx-index/b907009f9ef1e20d9d8d983e2c72186230be91ccfaf742e68caa1b95eb675af8


Hearn, Gavin et al also confirmed as FUD spreading propagandists.


Block size increase is not needed now, when it will be needed it will be increased, the core roadmap is the best plan going forward.

Everything else is based on a FUD manufactured crisis.

In the last month, I've sent around 15 transactions of varying sizes from between about .045 BTC and 10 BTC, and each time i paid around .0002BTC in transaction fees.  Each of my transaction received at least 3 confirmations within about 15 minutes.  I cannot recall any delay in receiving the transaction longer than 15 minutes in that set of transactions in the past month.

so yes, I agree, there currently does not seem to be any meaningful problem, and there seem to be several possibly consensus based solutions in the works...

Accordingly, I still have troubles understanding when the blocksize and/or scaling issues are presented as "an emergency."

When the avg. blocktime is 10 minutes how does each of your transactions receive at least 3 confirmations within 15 minutes?

I use the recommended fee in my electrum wallet yet I have had bad luck getting my transactions included in the first block.  It oft times takes 3 blocks to get included, I seem to run into those empty blocks on a regular basis.

Perhaps JJG has been extremely lucky.

To get 3 confirmations, you need at least 2 blocks in 15 minutes after sending the transaction, as the first block will only give you one confirmation. Normally, there are 6 blocks an hour on average, but since hash power has been exploding recently, lets assume you got 8 blocks per hour in the past month.

So two blocks came in 15 minutes on average, on a Poisson distribution (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution ).  The chance of 2 blocks or more in 15 minutes is 1 -  chance of no blocks - chance of 1 block.

Chance of 0 blocks in 15 minutes P(0) = 2^0 * e^(-2) / 0! = e^(-2)

Chance of 1 block in 15 minutes P(1) = 2^1 * e^(-2) / 1! = 2*e^(-2)

So the chance of 2 blocks or more in 15 minutes is 1 - P(0) - P(1) = 1 - 3*e^(-2) = 1- 3*0.135 = 1-0.406 = 0.594

So far, so good. This is for one tx. To have this for 15 tx in a row, this means the chance is 0.594^15 = 0.000404 .

In other words, JJG has been extremely lucky, indeed. 


EDIT: I didn't take into account the presence of empty blocks, which will further lower the actual chance (since you will never be included in an empty block, no matter how high a fee you pay).

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

  WTF 370 

this is weekend and every weekend price down some point
wait and see we will comeback to $380 then $390 then stable at $400
keep holding your bitcoin 

Yeah, but the quantity of volume in the past dump makes me wonder if we may drop into the mid to upper $360s before returning upwards?

We have all weekend, no?

Is it true that there is always a drop point in weekends? Never looked at that...

Gonna investigate

I believe that it's not true (especially if you say "always" dump on weekends; however, there can be a considerable correlation to low volume and a correlation with possibilities for price drops over the weekend. Also a concern that it's easier to move bitcoins over the weekend rather than fiat so there is a possibility (and probability)  that some people will run out of fiat on the exchanges on the weekends. 

[busybee7]

the price is down again, cant wait for the times when  the price will grow again and bring me money

[barbs]

"Own a Bitcoin," they said

"See the moon," they said

 

[Fatman3001]

where's dev

[JayJuanGee]

Here are some more FACTS for you:

After I made my last post I sent transaction to myself, confirmed no problems AS ALWAYS. About 4 min in-fact, you beauty. https://blockchain.info/tx-index/b907009f9ef1e20d9d8d983e2c72186230be91ccfaf742e68caa1b95eb675af8


Hearn, Gavin et al also confirmed as FUD spreading propagandists.


Block size increase is not needed now, when it will be needed it will be increased, the core roadmap is the best plan going forward.

Everything else is based on a FUD manufactured crisis.

In the last month, I've sent around 15 transactions of varying sizes from between about .045 BTC and 10 BTC, and each time i paid around .0002BTC in transaction fees.  Each of my transaction received at least 3 confirmations within about 15 minutes.  I cannot recall any delay in receiving the transaction longer than 15 minutes in that set of transactions in the past month.

so yes, I agree, there currently does not seem to be any meaningful problem, and there seem to be several possibly consensus based solutions in the works...

Accordingly, I still have troubles understanding when the blocksize and/or scaling issues are presented as "an emergency."

When the avg. blocktime is 10 minutes how does each of your transactions receive at least 3 confirmations within 15 minutes?

I use the recommended fee in my electrum wallet yet I have had bad luck getting my transactions included in the first block.  It oft times takes 3 blocks to get included, I seem to run into those empty blocks on a regular basis.

Well it could be that it take a little less in some instances or a little longer in other instances and I'm not really timing it or measuring precisely (even though I asserted less than 15 minutes in my earlier post).

Even if it takes an hour to finalize before I can use my coins (because I I think these days I need three confirmations to be able to use them), I haven't felt any significant delay because usually the transaction will show up with zero confirmations within 5 minutes or so then I can rest assured that it is coming to me.

 I find the overall transaction to be very quick even if it may take 5 minutes before it shows up and an hour or even less than a day to be able to use.  Surely there may be situations in which it's more urgent to get the coins, and no one would want to suffer currency volatility during the time of waiting to receive.

 Anyhow Banks tend to take a lot longer (usually at least a day and sometimes over a week - depending on the nature of the transaction).

[JayJuanGee]

Here are some more FACTS for you:

After I made my last post I sent transaction to myself, confirmed no problems AS ALWAYS. About 4 min in-fact, you beauty. https://blockchain.info/tx-index/b907009f9ef1e20d9d8d983e2c72186230be91ccfaf742e68caa1b95eb675af8


Hearn, Gavin et al also confirmed as FUD spreading propagandists.


Block size increase is not needed now, when it will be needed it will be increased, the core roadmap is the best plan going forward.

Everything else is based on a FUD manufactured crisis.

In the last month, I've sent around 15 transactions of varying sizes from between about .045 BTC and 10 BTC, and each time i paid around .0002BTC in transaction fees.  Each of my transaction received at least 3 confirmations within about 15 minutes.  I cannot recall any delay in receiving the transaction longer than 15 minutes in that set of transactions in the past month.

so yes, I agree, there currently does not seem to be any meaningful problem, and there seem to be several possibly consensus based solutions in the works...

Accordingly, I still have troubles understanding when the blocksize and/or scaling issues are presented as "an emergency."

When the avg. blocktime is 10 minutes how does each of your transactions receive at least 3 confirmations within 15 minutes?

I use the recommended fee in my electrum wallet yet I have had bad luck getting my transactions included in the first block.  It oft times takes 3 blocks to get included, I seem to run into those empty blocks on a regular basis.

Perhaps JJG has been extremely lucky.

To get 3 confirmations, you need at least 2 blocks in 15 minutes after sending the transaction, as the first block will only give you one confirmation. Normally, there are 6 blocks an hour on average, but since hash power has been exploding recently, lets assume you got 8 blocks per hour in the past month.

So two blocks came in 15 minutes on average, on a Poisson distribution (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution ).  The chance of 2 blocks or more in 15 minutes is 1 -  chance of no blocks - chance of 1 block.

Chance of 0 blocks in 15 minutes P(0) = 2^0 * e^(-2) / 0! = e^(-2)

Chance of 1 block in 15 minutes P(1) = 2^1 * e^(-2) / 1! = 2*e^(-2)

So the chance of 2 blocks or more in 15 minutes is 1 - P(0) - P(1) = 1 - 3*e^(-2) = 1- 3*0.135 = 1-0.406 = 0.594

So far, so good. This is for one tx. To have this for 15 tx in a row, this means the chance is 0.594^15 = 0.000404 .

In other words, JJG has been extremely lucky, indeed. 


EDIT: I didn't take into account the presence of empty blocks, which will further lower the actual chance (since you will never be included in an empty block, no matter how high a fee you pay).

Maybe I will have to measure more preciselyin the future to see how long it is taking in actuality- rather than a ruff estimate because surely I see the coins within a few minutes ( usually less than 5).

Thereafter the amount of time precisely hasn't been an issue for me because I'm not trying to move the coins a second time, but I will concede that I can imagine some possible transactions in which a person may want to move a second time within a short period and then timing would be more critical.

[ahpku]

where's dev

Are we on fork?

Maybe I will have to measure more preciselyin the future to see how long it is taking in actuality- [...]

Or stop making shit up. That works too

[JayJuanGee]

where's dev

Are we on fork?

Maybe I will have to measure more preciselyin the future to see how long it is taking in actuality- [...]

Or stop making shit up. That works too

Yeah right. A rough estimate can be different from precise timing, and yep I agree that no one likes anyone who exaggerates.

I think that I tend to not worry whether it takes 15 minutes or an hour or perhaps a day in some instances for the bitcoins to actually be available because I tend to maintain a sufficient balance in Bitcoin and dollars to provide a bit of a cushion for possible volatility.   Therefore if I'm really worried about having some bitcoins locked up in one place for an extended period of time (more than 15 minutes, for example), I could sell an equal or proportionate amount of bitcoins in another place.

And, yep I can imagine instance in which the cushion of bitcoins would not  be there for me for one reason or another, or possible the amount of bitcoins in the pending transaction is really high, so it's more difficult to maintain a cushion or to sell somewhere else .

I suppose if I were dealing in some hypothetical situations in which I needed access to the bitcoins more quickly then I would need to measure more the amount of time more precisely for actual availability versus the bitcoins just showing up as "pending."


I also recognize that other people may experience other kinds of use cases that make it better to have actual access to the coins more quickly, and there are some people who do not operate their lives with various cushions in their finances, so they get a bit more anxious through either inadvertence or lack of preparations.