Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HI-TEC99]

I agree JJG.  I can't get away from the feeling that something big is coming, and it does look more likely that the breakout will be upwards.  I'm fuelled up  

maybe that the hacked bitfinex coins started moving?
https://www.reddit.com/user/MrChrisJ

Wo-wo-woah!  What effect is that likely to have?

The kraken has already frozen 0.4 Bitcoins sent to it. I expect Bitcoin.de, Coinbase, and CoinsBank will also freeze. That only leaves LocalBitcoins, BTC-e, Xzzx, and quadrigaCX. Even the obscure exchanges will probably freeze. They won't want to handle those coins.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitfinexs-hacked-bitcoins-move-5-recovery-bounty-offered/

Maybe the hacker shorted Bitcoin then moved the stolen coins to try to cause a crash.

Why would they freeze it? Just let them convert to fiat...then ask for KYC information to withdraw the money.

Mainly because of legal implications, plus all the publicity those coins have. Also they get a 5% reward for each Bitcoin they can return to Bitfinex. Obviously 5% of 0.4 Bitcoins isn't worth much to the Kraken. However if the hacker deposited a substantial quantity on other exchanges they could legally make a nice profit from freezing, then returning the coins.

[boyshx]

it's already chinese new year or its tonight ad american mignight? the different time zones got me confused.

[HI-TEC99]

it's already chinese new year or its tonight ad american mignight? the different time zones got me confused.

It was about an hour ago, so they will all be partying. No trading for them.

[boyshx]

so if a big sized decline on the price don't happen in the next hours we could reject the chinese new years dump hypothesis.

[gembitz]

H4PPY NEW YE4R OF THE CHICKEN!!!:-D++WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[HI-TEC99]

Happy New Year

[gembitz]

Happy New Year

PEKING FOR CORNZZZ==>HOPPY YEER OF CHIKUN BUCK BUCK :-D

[brituspol]

Chinese new year up, think bitcoin will go up a bit now.

P.S: What's up with the "Chicken new year" though?

[HI-TEC99]

Chinese new year up, think bitcoin will go up a bit now.

P.S: What's up with the "Chicken new year" though?

Today is the first day of the Chinese lunar year of the chicken. The last Chinese lunar year was the year of the monkey.

[AlexGR]

Year of the rooster, not chicken

[JayJuanGee]

Kim dotcom the cuck

He generates all the hype, and now he delayed the new megaupload... Maybe he is speculating and trying to buy more cheap bitcoin before the real announce.

No he was already hyping Bitcache and Bitcoin reaching $2000 some time ago.He was already invested in Bitcoin.
So he might have finished his speculation, ie. he cashed out and maybe was one of the guys who dumped his BTC at the peak.
And now this is lame announcement. Check his history! That dude always was and probably still is extremely shady!

Show me one person who didn't dump at peak! 
Every person here trying to get yourself a benefit....like he...and don't care to others! !!

Yeah, darkholder, you like to assert... "oh, i am just kidding," but you are not.

You are spreading nonsense, and in retrospect attempting to suggest that "everyone" knew when the peak was or that "everyone" engages in the same strategy or "everyone"  has the same bitcoin information.  Pure nonsense.

Some people were buying at the peak, selling at the peak and holding.  Sure in the end there were more coins that were sold rather than bought, but if you were watching the trading while the price was tanking, you will recognize that such selling activity is not organic and widespread, but instead it is largely caused by a few big players (whether it is 10 big players or 50 big players, it doesn't really matter - because it is not some kind of widespread organic momentum that causes such sudden price dips).  Accordingly, you have some big players that are dumping 100s and even 1000s of coins at one time for the purpose of driving the prices as far down and as fast as possible, and sure, maybe they do end up picking those coins up later at cheaper prices, but maybe not.. because at some point they are no longer successful to drive the price down.  They either run out of folks willing to follow or they run out of coins or both.

By the way, there is no real clarity either that BTC prices were going to reverse in the mid $1100s - because if you recall, there were times that the price had been driven up so fast to the mid $1100s that there were not very many coins on the order books in the upwards direction, and with a few persistent whales prices could have relatively easily had been pushed into the $1500s and beyond - maybe to cause more certainty that the support was not sustainable... People do not know, and when the price is going up, it mostly only becomes clear about the price reversal after such reversal has already happened rather than while in the midst of the uptrend.

[JayJuanGee]

Does anyone know why the API described here https://bitcoincharts.com/about/markets-api/ doesn't work?

Examples listed on the page are:

Latest mtgoxUSD trades:
http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/trades.csv?symbol=mtgoxUSD

btcexYAD trades after 1303100000:
http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/trades.csv?symbol=btcexYAD&start=1303100000

But it just send back no data.

Does anyone have an idea or an alternative?

mtgox is not alive anymore and not listed in Bitcoinwisdom, so that must be the reason

and btcex is closed since 2012 it seems, so the reason why there is no data about them

I don't know where get so precise data about ancient dead exchanges and why would you need them

Well, http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/mtgoxUSD.csv.gz is available (but due to the sheer size hard to query) so I thought it'd be a bug or something? You are right thought that http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/trades.csv?symbol=bitstampUSD is still working.

I'm interested on precise old mtGox data because mtGox dictated the market price in early (up until 2011 at least) years and I want to analyze the data. Starting 2012 I can switch to Bitstamp I guess but a shame to not have access to the data before that.

edit:

Bitstamp starts in September of 2011 on bitcoincharts

I am not sure about what historical Mt Gox data you are having difficulty accessing or the means that you are attempting to use.

I found that just using regular browser access, you can access Gox data back to about July 2010 (traded between $.06 and $.12, which is quite the wow factor)...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig6-hourzczsg2010-7-2zeg2011-12-24ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv

[DARKHOLDER]

Kim dotcom the cuck

He generates all the hype, and now he delayed the new megaupload... Maybe he is speculating and trying to buy more cheap bitcoin before the real announce.

No he was already hyping Bitcache and Bitcoin reaching $2000 some time ago.He was already invested in Bitcoin.
So he might have finished his speculation, ie. he cashed out and maybe was one of the guys who dumped his BTC at the peak.
And now this is lame announcement. Check his history! That dude always was and probably still is extremely shady!

Show me one person who didn't dump at peak! 
Every person here trying to get yourself a benefit....like he...and don't care to others! !!

Yeah, darkholder, you like to assert... "oh, i am just kidding," but you are not.

You are spreading nonsense, and in retrospect attempting to suggest that "everyone" knew when the peak was or that "everyone" engages in the same strategy or "everyone"  has the same bitcoin information.  Pure nonsense.

Some people were buying at the peak, selling at the peak and holding.  Sure in the end there were more coins that were sold rather than bought, but if you were watching the trading while the price was tanking, you will recognize that such selling activity is not organic and widespread, but instead it is largely caused by a few big players (whether it is 10 big players or 50 big players, it doesn't really matter - because it is not some kind of widespread organic momentum that causes such sudden price dips).  Accordingly, you have some big players that are dumping 100s and even 1000s of coins at one time for the purpose of driving the prices as far down and as fast as possible, and sure, maybe they do end up picking those coins up later at cheaper prices, but maybe not.. because at some point they are no longer successful to drive the price down.  They either run out of folks willing to follow or they run out of coins or both.

By the way, there is no real clarity either that BTC prices were going to reverse in the mid $1100s - because if you recall, there were times that the price had been driven up so fast to the mid $1100s that there were not very many coins on the order books in the upwards direction, and with a few persistent whales prices could have relatively easily had been pushed into the $1500s and beyond - maybe to cause more certainty that the support was not sustainable... People do not know, and when the price is going up, it mostly only becomes clear about the price reversal after such reversal has already happened rather than while in the midst of the uptrend.

You are very optimistic. ..but that's OK. ..hope you are right

[JayJuanGee]

Kim dotcom the cuck

He generates all the hype, and now he delayed the new megaupload... Maybe he is speculating and trying to buy more cheap bitcoin before the real announce.

No he was already hyping Bitcache and Bitcoin reaching $2000 some time ago.He was already invested in Bitcoin.
So he might have finished his speculation, ie. he cashed out and maybe was one of the guys who dumped his BTC at the peak.
And now this is lame announcement. Check his history! That dude always was and probably still is extremely shady!

Show me one person who didn't dump at peak! 
Every person here trying to get yourself a benefit....like he...and don't care to others! !!

Yeah, darkholder, you like to assert... "oh, i am just kidding," but you are not.

You are spreading nonsense, and in retrospect attempting to suggest that "everyone" knew when the peak was or that "everyone" engages in the same strategy or "everyone"  has the same bitcoin information.  Pure nonsense.

Some people were buying at the peak, selling at the peak and holding.  Sure in the end there were more coins that were sold rather than bought, but if you were watching the trading while the price was tanking, you will recognize that such selling activity is not organic and widespread, but instead it is largely caused by a few big players (whether it is 10 big players or 50 big players, it doesn't really matter - because it is not some kind of widespread organic momentum that causes such sudden price dips).  Accordingly, you have some big players that are dumping 100s and even 1000s of coins at one time for the purpose of driving the prices as far down and as fast as possible, and sure, maybe they do end up picking those coins up later at cheaper prices, but maybe not.. because at some point they are no longer successful to drive the price down.  They either run out of folks willing to follow or they run out of coins or both.

By the way, there is no real clarity either that BTC prices were going to reverse in the mid $1100s - because if you recall, there were times that the price had been driven up so fast to the mid $1100s that there were not very many coins on the order books in the upwards direction, and with a few persistent whales prices could have relatively easily had been pushed into the $1500s and beyond - maybe to cause more certainty that the support was not sustainable... People do not know, and when the price is going up, it mostly only becomes clear about the price reversal after such reversal has already happened rather than while in the midst of the uptrend.

You are very optimistic. ..but that's OK. ..hope you are right

I don't think so.

I am not overly optimistic.  i am just looking at where we are at, and how we got here.

Do you understand the context of how we got here or BTC fundamentals?

Sure, BTC prices could go in either direction, but the fact of the matter remains that we were in a bear market for most of 2014 (a long correction based on a variety of factors, including several uncertainties that came with the MTGOX collapse), and then throughout most of 2015, we had a prolonged bottomming out, attempts to keep the price down and several additional unsuccessful attempts to get prices to go and stay below $220, which by the end of 2015, we found out just wasn't happening (even though we may not have realized until about early 2016 that we were out of the bear market), and we have been in a bull market ever since.

O.k.  sure, there had been a bit of exuberance up to mid $1,100s (but that is likely mostly due to the fact that we had no meaningful correction from about mid-$500s, after the August 2016 Bitfinex "hack"), and therefore our current correction status was a bit of a necessity, but there is no real evidence that we are out of the uptrend and that buying pressure is or has been dissipating. 

Therefore, your wishing and hoping for $700s and your mischaracterization of our current place, how we got here and bitcoin price dynamics comes off more as an attempt to spread FUD rather than having any kind of basis in realities... does not mean that you may not end up being correct about the outcome of additional correction or downward price movement, but seems as if you are discussing a long shot as if it were normal and more probable rather than grappling with proper context.. and giving your hopes for $700s etc proper weight which currently seems to be in the less than 30% territory.

[yefi]

Well, http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/mtgoxUSD.csv.gz is available (but due to the sheer size hard to query) so I thought it'd be a bug or something? You are right thought that http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/trades.csv?symbol=bitstampUSD is still working.

I'm interested on precise old mtGox data because mtGox dictated the market price in early (up until 2011 at least) years and I want to analyze the data. Starting 2012 I can switch to Bitstamp I guess but a shame to not have access to the data before that.

Does seem like a bug. Working directly with the csv shouldn't be so bad though? I would've thought pulling data from that would be faster than http get requests.

[Killerpotleaf]

low volume low movement weekend so far.

i guess everyone is busy celebrating the year of the chicken 

[soullyG]

I'm happy for more sideways till mid feb, then moon pls  

Looks like we could still drop a bit more before any big moves up though (roughly, $850 or so)

[harrymmmm]

low volume low movement weekend so far.

i guess everyone is busy celebrating the year of the chicken 

It's good to see the unsubsidized btccny volume now:
https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/btc/analysis/USD

btccny = btcjpy = btcusd = 30% of all (24 hour) volume approximately

[Globb0]

all the people who were scamming it must be furiously thinking up ways they can get back control.

[Karartma1]

I'm happy for more sideways till mid feb, then moon pls  

Looks like we could still drop a bit more before any big moves up though (roughly, $850 or so)

Current price is not bad at all : It's good to consolidate our positions and holdings. We have to wait a bit more for the moon and as you say some price drops/corrections could still happen hopefully not below that level.