Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hyperjacked]

I have a feeling we're going to see some more downside soon so as to create a triangle whch will breakout sometime in a month or two

If you and masterluc are right about this, we could be in the final run of the bulls followed by some red dragons and purgatory before we resume upward liftoff. Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry. That said, the world is changing before our eyes so anything could or could not happen according to normal market flows.

Red dragons... ? What's next Hell's Kitchen ...?

Disclaimer: I've been buying with both hands for months

[1715198772]

1715198772

[1715198772]

1715198772

[harrymmmm]

I am an IT guy but when I first heard about Bitcoin I was defensive because I thought gold was the answer.

To this day I have not gone through all of the source code. But I did read the white paper and that got me.

Maybe some IT people might be hesitant because they understand how vulnerable most computers are.

I think it's more your economic views than your views on digital tech.

Understanding by IT people is, I think, dependent on a bit of knowledge of how cryptography works. The idea that your money can be safe by just ensuring a key is safe, etc ... I'm sure the knowledge that computers are so hard to secure feeds into it, but that crypto understanding is still a rare thing.

Agree with the economic views being important.

[ssmc2]

I have a feeling we're going to see some more downside soon so as to create a triangle whch will breakout sometime in a month or two

If you and masterluc are right about this, we could be in the final run of the bulls followed by some red dragons and purgatory before we resume upward liftoff. Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry. That said, the world is changing before our eyes so anything could or could not happen according to normal market flows.

Word

[notme]

I've not met anyone who works in technology that didn't get it after reading the white paper (see sig if you haven't read it yet).  Most deniers simply haven't taken the time to learn what it is.  Unfortunately, the white paper is no longer front and center when you google bitcoin.

[becoin]

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

[JayJuanGee]

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that?  It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no?  Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.  

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop.   I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.  

[600watt]

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that?  It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no?  Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.  

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop.   I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.  

why didn´t you just buy those 35%drop coins three months earlier, when they were under $600? don´t you end up with less coins that way?

[JayJuanGee]

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that?  It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no?  Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.  

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop.   I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.  

why didn´t you just buy those 35%drop coins three months earlier, when they were under $600? don´t you end up with less coins that way?

If you are serious rather than trolling, then maybe I should attempt to respond to your question: however, I am getting the sense that you do not quite understand the concept of incrementalism, and you are just asking to be a pain in the ass while you remain in your continued gambling all or nothing mindset... and also a bit stubborn about your own risky practices... even though they seem to stress you out a bit more than you would like (as I can tell from some of your previous posts)

Let me see if I can address this proposition somewhat...

When you buy and sell incrementally, with the vast majority of your BTC allocated funds, you are not trying to prediction the price direction of the market and therefore, you mechanically apply the incrementalist principles that you have established for yourself and for your own situation.  Sure you do not make as much money as those persons who actually go all in and predict the price direction correctly, but an underlying assumption is that it is too difficult and too risky to attempt to predict the price direction, and in the long run incrementalism will pay off more than attempting to predict because when you attempt to engage in price predictions you stand to lose more overall by the times that you predict wrong as compared to the times that you predict correctly.

By the way, I don't completely exclude myself from price prediction practices, but about 90% of my ongoing trading practice is to mechanically stick with incrementalism type principles that are tailored to my situation and to apply those principles fairly strictly.. so I am only playing around with a small portion of my trading funds.. and in the end, my BTC portfolio consistently does quite well, and mostly because I stick largely with incrementalism - even though from time to time, I continue to hone my practices to better tailor to my own personal comfort levels (which likely applies slightly differently with each person who attempts such).

[600watt]

If you are serious rather than trolling, then maybe I should attempt to respond to your question: however, I am getting the sense that you do not quite understand the concept of incrementalism, and you are just asking to be a pain in the ass while you remain in your continued gambling all or nothing mindset... and also a bit stubborn about your own risky practices... even though they seem to stress you out a bit more than you would like (as I can tell from some of your previous posts)

(snip)

thanks for taking the time explaining it. if you would - on top of that - have left out your usual assholelishness i would probably not regret having asked (and beware: even quoted you)

back on ignore.

[Meuh6879]

Are you ready to fuck the GOLD price ?

[JayJuanGee]

If you are serious rather than trolling, then maybe I should attempt to respond to your question: however, I am getting the sense that you do not quite understand the concept of incrementalism, and you are just asking to be a pain in the ass while you remain in your continued gambling all or nothing mindset... and also a bit stubborn about your own risky practices... even though they seem to stress you out a bit more than you would like (as I can tell from some of your previous posts)

(snip)

thanks for taking the time explaining it. if you would - on top of that - have left out your usual assholelishness i would probably not regret having asked (and beware: even quoted you)

back on ignore.

It is not called "assholelisheness" based on the tone that you created (and therefore asked for) in your several posts, and your seeming attempts to chide.

But, otherwise, I have no problem sharing information and strategies, even if we might have differing approaches and thoughts regarding some of these  kinds of matters.

[becoin]

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that?  It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no?  Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.  

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop.   I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.  

why didn´t you just buy those 35%drop coins three months earlier, when they were under $600? don´t you end up with less coins that way?

He did end up with less coins, of course. But that is the price he paid for his daily doze of adrenaline by "trading" bitcoins...

[PoolMinor]

It is not called "assholelisheness" based on the tone that you created (and therefore asked for) in your several posts, and your seeming attempts to chide.

But, otherwise, I have no problem sharing information and strategies, even if we might have differing approaches and thoughts regarding some of these  kinds of matters.

See, that's the thing, we have all heard your strategy over and over and over, mind you without wanting to hear about it. Mostly you used percentages to mask the fact that you own less than 10BTC. Which if the readers knew would likely hit the ignore button also.

back on ignore.

Me too, I unfortunately have to log in now to NOT see his bs arguments that are unfounded and illegible because he goes on rants that clearly show he never read the post even though he quoted it.

[Ibian]

Now that we are past 1k it's almost boring already. But good to see my sig finally becoming vindicated, at least. Been saying since '13 that anything below 1k is cheap.

[HI-TEC99]

Now that we are past 1k it's almost boring already. But good to see my sig finally becoming vindicated, at least. Been saying since '13 that anything below 1k is cheap.

Boring is good, if it gets too exciting it's going up too fast, which will inevitably lead to a correction.

[PoolMinor]

PoolMinor still waiting for $800...

Sooner than you think

[JayJuanGee]

Fiat at the ready, keeping powder dry.

If you want to keep your powder dry keep your wealth in bitcoins, not in fiat!

Yeah, but we gotta snap into reality that the world still remains dominated by fiat, no?

It could be possible that you do not understand the concept of "keeping some dry powder", no?

It seems to be a bit too lopsided to have 100% invested in bitcoin, and maybe you do not mean that?  It also would seem to be a bit imprudent to not have any fiat-related investments, no?  Maybe that depends on age, but I would argue that even if you feel that you are really young and have not really had time to build diversification in your investments, it still may be prudent to hedge a little bit - because we know that bitcoin prices have been volatile and bitcoin prices are likely to continue to be volatile.  

It surely seems that bitcoin will become a bit less volatile as the market cap goes up, but the fact of the matter remains that the price of this asset class (aka bitcoin) can be manipulated with a relatively small amount of capital - give us another 100x in price appreciation (and increase in market cap), then it will become a lot harder (relatively) to manipulate - and volatility will decrease.

In my case, I currently have a fund dedicated to bitcoin investment, and sure I would like to be at 100% in that fund, especially when the prices are going up, but I would get a bit stressed out if I were 100% in that fund because when the price starts going down, the roller coaster can be a bit much to bear, because you can never really be sure about how long and how far the price is going to go down, and therefore within my bitcoin investment fund, I am currently about 93% in bitcoin and 7% in fiat.....

I also have to tweak my bitcoin investment fund from time to time here and there to continue to feel comfortable.. while attempting to keep some "dry powder," as they say, just in case we get a decent price drop.   I even buy with price drops as small as 3%, but then if the price drops 35%, which it recently did - remember mid January?, then it is much more comfortable to have some ability to buy some BTC back with already allocated bitcoin funds and not having to scramble to come up with funds at the last minute.  

why didn´t you just buy those 35%drop coins three months earlier, when they were under $600? don´t you end up with less coins that way?

He did end up with less coins, of course. But that is the price he paid for his daily doze of adrenaline by "trading" bitcoins...

When I got into bitcoin, I was not expecting to be a "trader," and I did not even want to engage in such trading activities, and maybe it was a bit naive of me?   because I did consider myself someone who buys on the way down and sells on the way up - even though I did not expect to engage in such conduct in such small intervals of price change (or maybe bitcoin's price changes more than I had erroneously expected).

Nonetheless, @Becoin... you seem to be assuming a quite a bit more than what really happens and how matters really play out.

Of course, if the price goes straight up, then I will have fewer coins than what I started with, but the reality of the matter and the reality of bitcoin seems to be that the price goes up and down and up and down, and in the end, over time, I tend to have more coins than what I started with and more or less the same amount of investment. 

Let me describe a little bit of specifics in order that maybe you (and other can attempt to relate)... I started buying in late 2013, and I continued to buy through the end of 2014 before I started to feel as if I had accumulated a decent enough stake in bitcoin.. but further since the price did not really go up, I did not feel comfortable or engage in any selling of bitcoin.  Further throughout 2015, the price largely floated in the $200s, so by the middle of 2015, I started to devise a plan to divide my bitcoin holdings into 3 portions and to authorize myself to sell within the third that would have had an average cost below my selling cost.  So the fact of the matter is that I began to sell bitcoin's at around $250, but overall, in the long term, prices continued to go up and are more or less 4x that price... and I still have about more than 10% more coins than I had with the same amount of investment.. I also have fiat stacked up, too.... so my holdings are considerably more protected than if I only engaged in HODL... So it seems that the price goes up and down and up and down, and my plan tends to accumulate coins...

On the other hand, you are correct that if the price were to go straight up (in a hypothetical world that does not exist and is not very probable to exist - low probability in other words), then I would have fewer coins than what I had started with.

[JayJuanGee]

It is not called "assholelisheness" based on the tone that you created (and therefore asked for) in your several posts, and your seeming attempts to chide.

But, otherwise, I have no problem sharing information and strategies, even if we might have differing approaches and thoughts regarding some of these  kinds of matters.

See, that's the thing, we have all heard your strategy over and over and over, mind you without wanting to hear about it.

Look... the royal "we"        

From one angle, my perspective is that if one or two people are able to benefit from my sharing experiences, then that is good enough for me, and I could give a ratt's ass if 95% of posters chimed in to say that they don't appreciate my experiences and/or perspective, in regards to my post contents.

From another angle, I post in order to clarify my own thoughts and get feed back from other folks, including you.  So sometimes, even quasi-nonsensical and exaggerated renditions like yours can help me to get a better perspective regarding how other people think about the current situation and even to possibly modify my own thinking and/or strategies based on a certain amount of weight to give to those thoughts (even if some of them are quasi-nonsensical and even seem to be exaggerations - I understand (or at least try to) that actual people have those kinds of thoughts that motivate their behaviors).

Mostly you used percentages to mask the fact that you own less than 10BTC. Which if the readers knew would likely hit the ignore button also.

If you do not understand something, then you deride it?  What craziness.

I frequently use percentages in order to describe what I am doing, and sometimes, I might use 10BTC as an example of a number of BTC, in order to illustrate points about proportionality.  10BTC is a nice round number, and someone who is reading can use something like that in order to apply the same principles to his portfolio or trading practices.  

Part of my point in using such a number, as well, is to assert that you can use the same principles no matter the quantity of BTC that you own.. We could even use 1BTC as a starting point, but sometimes something like 10BTC can give more meat and concreteness to the quantities.

back on ignore.

Me too, I unfortunately have to log in now to NOT see his bs arguments that are unfounded and illegible because he goes on rants that clearly show he never read the post even though he quoted it.

Yeah, you already made that point, when you did you cute little "ignore of JJG" earlier.. how cute and convenient for you to attempt to live in a bubble while accusing others of such.

The fact of the matter is that I raised a lot of points with you, but instead of attempting to engage and to clarify and to explain, you stay in your bubble and just write what you feel like  and do not respond to others.

How is your short at $980 coming, by the way?  

PoolMinor still waiting for $800...

Sooner than you think

Yeah, if you keep saying that price is going to fall, then sooner or later you will be correct - but that does not really address the fact that you are placing too much certainty on one direction or another.. and misleading in the way that you are describing matters, even though you are claiming to be "technical."  Bitcoin and it's price performance is quite a bit more than just pure math (and certainty).. when talking about the future...  helrow?  Even though after the fact, we can assert and even argue that some specific and certain thing actually happened.

[alexout]

JayJuanGee winning this thread.

Im sure the others arguing vs him have some points, but you usually can tell whos lost the debate once they start going into 'ignore button' territory.

[European Central Bank]

I've never had an argument with him. I have had him on ignore for a few years.

I ain't got the time for the sheer volume he writes but I'm sure he's a great guy with valid points.