Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Nightowlace]

some taobao sellers started to accept bitcoin

This is no news, but I bet 99% of the forum users don't know about this and they probably don't know what is Taobao.

China's version of Ebay

[1714121119]

1714121119

[Nightowlace]

Ok if we breach 78, it will likely resume downtrend for a time, but I think we will not see 78 again.

I hate it when you say "we will not see $xx again" because when you do we ALWAYS see that number again and it usually doesn't take long after you say it.

If you really think so, what a valuable advice! Sell 33% of your bitcoins if the price is above the floor and buy them back when we see it.

If we cross 110, we could see a minirally. But bid depth above 95 is anemic, $2m. When I went to sleep not that long ago, it was $2m above 105.

Bitcoin is wonderful, because it seems that it is always about the right price. It can always go down as well as up, and you can never be sure. Of course, long term it seems to be going up. Only way to trade profitably is to buy low and sell high. It takes skill to know which number is low and which is high.

I do agree with you there. I hear a lot of people who say oh it crashed, that's that internet money that just crashed. Yes it skyrocketed, and then corrected however it has constantly been correcting to new highs. This started in the $30 range and now we are hoping for dips to $90. you tell me a stock where I can see these gains (with exception of penny pumps) in this short of time? I love bitcoin and as the CEO of paypal stated "Virtual currency is here to stay" and we are at the forefront. That makes me smile.

[favelle75]

$50 is the new $5, so bitcoin is obviously going to $500 next. I don't mind 1,000% gains even if we go to 50. And will buy more sub-100.

Ok if we breach 78, it will likely resume downtrend for a time, but I think we will not see 78 again.

I hate it when you say "we will not see $xx again" because when you do we ALWAYS see that number again and it usually doesn't take long after you say it.

Well I was sitting on the sidelines but I better sell a few so I have some cash for the $78 hit coming in the next two hours.
[/quote]

THIS.  Its gotten bloody annoying. Everytime he says "it will NEVER hit that price again", within a day it hits that price (and lower).

[rpietila]

My reasoning goes like this - it has to touch $100 before leaving this area.

But touching it induces a panic that may go low or lower. Expect a crash immediately if $102 does not hold. The depth above 102 is $400k.

Do not sell your coins, this is not my intention. Prime your buys between 50-100 when we get there.

[seleme]

So, we're going to see 95 again?

[humanitee]

So, we're going to see 95 again?

I think so. Probably further.

[mccorvic]

So, we're going to see 95 again?

As with all things bitcoin, the best answers is a resounding "maybe"

[rpietila]

So, we're going to see 95 again?

I think we will not see 95 again, but 100 is irresistible. But you can never know - after hitting 95 it can induce another rout. If 79 does not hold, more retreat. After that even I would consider that we go to 50, and perhaps we would, perhaps not. Even now people are buying because they think that I am a contrarian indicator and my sudden turn to bearishness bodes well for bitcoin.

Long term anything sub-100k is a glaring buy.

[rpietila]

Anyone interested in puts?  

As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..

Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.

[Babylon]

Anyone interested in puts?  

As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..

Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.

Can you explain what you are offering?  I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me.

[adamstgBit]

Anyone interested in puts?  

As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..

Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.

Can you explain what you are offering?  I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me.

put and call options are quite complicated...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_option

[solex]

Anyone interested in puts?  

As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..

Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.

We just saw 110 and 102 in the same candle only 2 hours ago!
If you have no useful information then best to remain silent until this changes.

[Babylon]

Anyone interested in puts?  

As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..

Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.

Can you explain what you are offering?  I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me.

put and call options are quite complicated...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_option

yeah, I read that article,  it looked like it was making it more complicated than it needed to be but i wasn't certain.  

[rpietila]

Anyone interested in puts?  

As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..

Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.

Can you explain what you are offering?  I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me.

If you believe that bitcoin might go down a lot, you sell, and buy back cheaper.

If you are not sure, it may go down or not, but that is not certain, and you don't want to sell eg. for tax reasons, you buy a put.

For example, now I would sell you a $100 put for BTC.200.

MP is selling it for BTC.330 currently so you get it cheaper from me.

Put is my obligation to buy bitcoins at the strike price, no matter how low they go in other venues such as Mt.Gox.

This put above is current until end of June, and may be exercised any time before.

BTC100 face value OK (I want to try even this one time thats why I lowered the minimum).

So you pay me BTC20, and your BTC100 will never be worth less than $10,000 until the end of June. Sleep well!  

[Babylon]

Anyone interested in puts?  

As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..

Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.

Can you explain what you are offering?  I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me.

If you believe that bitcoin might go down a lot, you sell, and buy back cheaper.

If you are not sure, it may go down or not, but that is not certain, and you don't want to sell eg. for tax reasons, you buy a put.

For example, now I would sell you a $100 put for BTC.200.

MP is selling it for BTC.330 currently so you get it cheaper from me.

Put is my obligation to buy bitcoins at the strike price, no matter how low they go in other venues such as Mt.Gox.

This put above is current until end of June, and may be exercised any time before.

BTC100 face value OK (I want to try even this one time thats why I lowered the minimum).

So you pay me BTC20, and your BTC100 will never be worth less than $10,000 until the end of June. Sleep well!  

That makes sense.  I'm fairly confident they'll be WAY above 100 by the end of June, but thank you for explaining that.

[adamstgBit]

Anyone interested in puts?  

As you might know by now, I want to buy bitcoins, and what would be a better way to buy them than giving others permission to sell at lower than current price and net the margin. Worst scenario would be to just net the margin..

Imho, we will see either 110 or 102, one before the other. Prepare accordingly.

Can you explain what you are offering?  I have read a bit about puts and they don't make a lot of sense to me.

If you believe that bitcoin might go down a lot, you sell, and buy back cheaper.

If you are not sure, it may go down or not, but that is not certain, and you don't want to sell eg. for tax reasons, you buy a put.

For example, now I would sell you a $100 put for BTC.200.

MP is selling it for BTC.330 currently so you get it cheaper from me.

Put is my obligation to buy bitcoins at the strike price, no matter how low they go in other venues such as Mt.Gox.

This put above is current until end of June, and may be exercised any time before.

BTC100 face value OK (I want to try even this one time thats why I lowered the minimum).

So you pay me BTC20, and your BTC100 will never be worth less than $10,000 until the end of June. Sleep well!  

That makes sense.  I'm fairly confident they'll be WAY above 100 by the end of June, but thank you for explaining that.

ya i'd like to buy a PUT

100$ strike price 200BTC

how much?

[rpietila]

We just saw 110 and 102 in the same candle only 2 hours ago!

That fact is instrumental in my analysis. It is called "trading range", and breaking either will be fireworks. However it is a trap nevertheless. If we break to the upside, it is a bull trap. Downside, it is a bear trap.

[rpietila]

ya i'd like to buy a PUT

100$ strike price 200BTC

how much?

BTC40, send me PM so we lock-in the price and details.

[adamstgBit]

ya i'd like to buy a PUT

100$ strike price 200BTC

how much?

BTC40, send me PM so we lock-in the price and details.

40BTC or about
so that i can sell you 200 BTC for 100$ each anytime before june.
an ok deal if you think bitcoin might go down and want to sell them if they do go down.


i'm going to have to pass i just realize i want MORE  

[crazy_rabbit]

A put sounds interesting. Now my question would be how to enforce fulfillment of contract.