Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

So for the first time, tax planning needs to be taken into consideration in my trading strategy.  It makes things much more complicated but it is a nice problem to have.

How about this plan, consisting of two stages:

Stage 1: Accumulation (buy for fiat, buy through alt appreciation, mining, earning, etc.)
Stage 2: Distribution. Allocate a % you want to potentially spend vs how much you want to leave to descendants. Maybe 50:50 or 70:30, whatever. Then divide your stash (that you want to consume) into equal yearly buckets considering maximum life expectancy.
Enjoy life, travel, whatever. Maybe start the distribution phase at retirement of few years beforehand, say, 60. this way you would enjoy the potential spoils a bit longer or while in relatively better health situation.

Example: you have N btc, then 0.5N (or 0.7N) is what you want to spend.
If you start at 60, maximum lifespan is probably 30 years, give or take, therefore, starting at 61st birthday, and each year afterwards spend/cash out 0.017 of your stash (1.7%). This number would go to 3.4%/year if you don't want to leave 50% to descendants.

Hi that’s great advice.  I am still in accumulation phase.  I triggered some capital gains when I sold coins bought in 2013.  I have started buying back lower with profits but the price has continued to fall.  I think that if I liquidate my new position on the last day of the tax year in my country, then I can offset trading losses against capital gains tax, and use the funds I have set aside to pay taxes to rebuy the following tax year (a few hours later). Obviously timing is critical.

[RejectedBanana]

Who's selling at these prices and why?

More importantly, who's not buying at these prices and why?

[HairyMaclairy]

going to have to eat a beloved chicken soon

fiat exhausted

please...capitulation...?

uncle

Jojo.   Don’t get bull trapped.  This has not played out yet.

We could go much much lower.  Try to put yourself in a position where you have options whichever direction the price goes in.

too late for all that

Imma have to go back to work...and I fear for that australorp

back to carrying water and chopping wood...

It will bounce.  Consider partial exit on the bounce while still leaving enough to hedge against a sudden upside move. Try to put yourself in a position where you win no matter what the price does, even if those wins are not as great as If you went all in.

[El duderino_]

Who's selling at these prices and why?

I was allready thinking that When we Where @10-11k ..... but never a problem for you right ...? How did you say it, panic buying all the way down ...... Yeah Thats right Thats what you did the other time not?
But for sure i think all clever minds are not selling @ This point specialy not @ current prices , iT So unlogical / unreal
So for the remaining let us stay on the flying train

[Nosk]

BUYING WALL OF 500 BTC AT 7845USD OF KRAKEN. WE ARE SAVED.


.... I wish

[Rosewater Foundation]

This is the dead land
This is cactus land
Here the stone images
Are raised, here they receive
The supplication of a dead man's hand
Under the twinkle of a fading star.

[Rosewater Foundation]

In this last of meeting places
We grope together
And avoid speech

[Rosewater Foundation]

This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang

but a whimper.

[jojo69]

really bitcoin?  you want this on your conscience?

[Rosewater Foundation]

Ritual sacrifice couldn't hurt. The gods are restless.

[Nosk]

Who's selling at these prices and why?

I sold short term at 8500 and bought at 8000, but I am gambling with money I can afford to lose.

Now just waiting for the recovery of market.

Well I can't stop wondering who the hell is selling at 40% of ATH.
Everybody who bought during the bull run would sell at lost. Those who bought earlier came before btc went full hype, so I think those guys should have more the hodler profile or similar.

So my best guess is, weak hands afraid to lose more than they already have money are actually selling at lost + whales dumping + guys speculating on the decreasing price as you do.

But all of that for one whole month of practically straight decreasing ?
Come on I need to breathe.

One magically new ATH right would please me so freaking much  

[Rosewater Foundation]

So my best guess is, weak hands afraid to lose more than they already have

Also Wall St. is crashing us on purpose,

[jojo69]

So my best guess is, weak hands afraid to lose more than they already have

Also Wall St. is crashing us on purpose,

in their spare time from crashing themselves

[JayJuanGee]

going to have to eat a beloved chicken soon

fiat exhausted

please...capitulation...?

uncle

Whoaza!!!!!!!!


It's too soon.

Don't go down enter into the Rosewater panic avenue Circus!  [Edited for accuracy in collaboration with Rosewater himself]


Maybe easier said than done?    

Surely, these are stressful times, so I will completely understand if people get pissed off at some of us (including me) that still have a decent amount of money for buying.

Fuck, it is like I have over-prepared for down while I have been hoping for up because I still have about 40% of the amount that I started out with at $19k, and about 25% of the fiat that I have in reserves is kind of off of the table - except I suppose for some extreme situation like under $1,000, but maybe any of us would become scared as shit to buy BTC if the price were to go below $1k?.. I am thinking that worse of the worse is below $5k with a possible spike to $3k - and I would even put that at a long shot of like less than 15%.. but fuck... we know that bitcoin has a long history of overshooting in extreme ways....

I just don't think that we are quite ready for a bear market which would be argued if BTC prices were sustained under $5k.. .. something like that?  We are not there, right?  Right?

[Nosk]

So my best guess is, weak hands afraid to lose more than they already have

Also Wall St. is crashing us on purpose,

Sounds kinda weird to me. The fire power needed for such a crash... Plus, they would be selling at lost on purpose. That would be purely burning XX% of your money just to keep the other %. Unless they bought before the bull run but I doubt it. More like they caused the bullrun.

[JayJuanGee]

going to have to eat a beloved chicken soon

fiat exhausted

please...capitulation...?

uncle

Jojo.   Don’t get bull trapped.  This has not played out yet.

We could go much much lower.  Try to put yourself in a position where you have options whichever direction the price goes in.

I like the idea of putting yourself in a position where you have options no matter the price direction, but I hate the idea of selling, even on a bounce... yet I understand that sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do... so difficult decisions, especially if your plan has not accounted for our current possibility.. even if we happen to currently at the bottom.. we don't know...   I know sometimes when I start getting too bearish in my talk, then at that point the market reverses.. but still remains difficult to know for sure.. ..

I am surely buying a lot of BTC every $1k drop, but fuck, I am (was) much more rich (in total terms) when BTC prices were higher.

[TERA2]

You can hold bitcoin and trade the alt/btc ratios that are moving with btc on margin. This also takes care of the tax problem on having to pay taxes on your original bitcoin gains if you sold them.

[thrax]

So my best guess is, weak hands afraid to lose more than they already have

Also Wall St. is crashing us on purpose,

Sounds kinda weird to me. The fire power needed for such a crash... Plus, they would be selling at lost on purpose. That would be purely burning XX% of your money just to keep the other %. Unless they bought before the bull run but I doubt it. More like they caused the bullrun.

Maybe they bet long on the futures and bought, then put shorts on after the futures closed and stated dumping. They might be putting very low buy orders in and trying to crash the price enough to fill them. After they reload they can close their shorts at a profit, put longs on again and start pumping the price.

For every coin they dump there's probably ten more sold due to stop loss triggers and panic selling.

[JayJuanGee]

Who's selling at these prices and why?

More importantly, who's not buying at these prices and why?

Shaking the tree some more.


Shake


Shake


Shake






Anything there?











Shake


Shake


Shake

[RoomBot]

Weird how $1000 sounds aweful and awesome at the same time.

It's all a matter of perspective.

My best friend & I each bought one BTC in 2013 for $110 each.

He lost the whole thing to a ponzi scam.

I HEDL.

He's been dying to get back in and was only able to in December, poor guy!

So $1000 is OK* with me...but for my friend, not so much!

*NOT REALLY