Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

Wasnt it just a couple months ago that eth fell all the way to some 0.02btc and now were already talking about the flippening again?

I don't think its a threat to bitcoin...but its getting closer.  .113/.138 etc/bch. I can see that happening I guess..but I have to admit I am probably biased.

[User705]

People, things are not complicated, this is not some kind of natural disaster, what is happening is that scammers at Scamfinex have to produce 1 US$ for every 1 USDT they produced out of the thin air, or they will go to jail. No matter how low the price is, they have no choice but to sell BTC, there's no other way they can produce US$. Point is they can not sell your coins, they can only sell theirs. It's that simple, why would anyone care if they loose the whole sum they've acquired through scam? They can either sell enough to cover the scam, or fail and go to jail. Sooner or later they will run out of BTC and the line will be drown under, their BTC will be in someone else hands, but your BTC will remain in yours. It's that simple, as someone said 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, there's no reason to fear of their failure. Only way you can fail is to sell your coins, otherwise you can not lose because this is not your game that is happening right now.

What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?

[explorer]

People, things are not complicated, this is not some kind of natural disaster, what is happening is that scammers at Scamfinex have to produce 1 US$ for every 1 USDT they produced out of the thin air, or they will go to jail. No matter how low the price is, they have no choice but to sell BTC, there's no other way they can produce US$. Point is they can not sell your coins, they can only sell theirs. It's that simple, why would anyone care if they loose the whole sum they've acquired through scam? They can either sell enough to cover the scam, or fail and go to jail. Sooner or later they will run out of BTC and the line will be drown under, their BTC will be in someone else hands, but your BTC will remain in yours. It's that simple, as someone said 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, there's no reason to fear of their failure. Only way you can fail is to sell your coins, otherwise you can not lose because this is not your game that is happening right now.

What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?

Simple.  YOUR coins are in YOUR control.  If they are on an exchange, they are NOT YOUR COINS.  Not that User705 needs to hear this, but there are a lot of noobs that need it drummed into their heads repeatedly.

[Toxic2040]

What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?

You can not haz my keys....ever.

[User705]

People, things are not complicated, this is not some kind of natural disaster, what is happening is that scammers at Scamfinex have to produce 1 US$ for every 1 USDT they produced out of the thin air, or they will go to jail. No matter how low the price is, they have no choice but to sell BTC, there's no other way they can produce US$. Point is they can not sell your coins, they can only sell theirs. It's that simple, why would anyone care if they loose the whole sum they've acquired through scam? They can either sell enough to cover the scam, or fail and go to jail. Sooner or later they will run out of BTC and the line will be drown under, their BTC will be in someone else hands, but your BTC will remain in yours. It's that simple, as someone said 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, there's no reason to fear of their failure. Only way you can fail is to sell your coins, otherwise you can not lose because this is not your game that is happening right now.

What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?

Simple.  YOUR coins are in YOUR control.  If they are on an exchange, they are NOT YOUR COINS.  Not that User705 needs to hear this, but there are a lot of noobs that need it drummed into their heads repeatedly.

My bad I thought you were implying they can’t sell the coins you think are “yours” on their exchange. 

[RoomBot]

Merit is going to be unfairly biased towards bulls, even if the bears are posting fantastic bear charts analysis with accurate predictions and the bulls are spamming about trains and insulting bears.

Bulls HODLing through thick and thin since the beginning know a lot more than newbie bears.

so, yeah.

[bitcoinPsycho]

[toknormal]

Look folks, just put all background noise about tether, India guv, Roubini FUD and other distractions out of your minds.

Here's what's going on. The correction is technical, pure and simple.

If you checkout this chart from 2015/2016/17, you can see that bitcoin grows in these 8-monthly bubbles which burst in the "propellor correction" fashion I described. The pattern's always the same:



That is:

 • market starts rising out of a bowl
 • gets to a point where it overheats
 • nosedives sharply all the way down to retest just below the previous "propellor spike"
 • retraces halfway up the initial correction and stabilises
 • drifts slowly down from there to settle from where it starts the next cycle

During 2017 these corrections got closer together as we've had both greater market depth AND unprecedented growth during the year. So instead of our 8-monthly crash and recovery we've had 3 of those consolidations (that manifest in the lowest resolution weekly chart) in the last 6 months instead of 1. The last one was in November, peaking at $7500. Together, those 3 consolidations amounted to an aggregate 77% retrace spanning 6-8 months. ($7500, November, $1825 end May).



What this means according to precedent is that we NEED to retest at least that 7500 (+or- 20%) region before progressing. It's just the bitcoin way. This is an uncapitalised asset class that's rapidly capitalising and there's so much clamour to get in that it can't do it smoothly.

The low of $8455 we saw on Bitstamp a couple of hours ago may or may not be the bottom of the wick. To complete the full depth of the needed correction we may have to revisit the $7500 level or even 6k at a pinch to really bake in the last runup but that could just as easily manifest as a momentary panic "fat finger" dump before retracing back up the decline to around the $13k level which is 50% of the consolidation we've had since the peak.


How Does this Compare to the 2013 bubble ?

In fact the 2013 rally and that nightmare 18 month recovery followed exactly the same pattern. The reason it took so long to recover is because it went straight from $126 all the way to the top in 7 straight weeks without any of these bubble-bursting corrections on the way (or even mini corrections). That meant that the last support level was the so called "Cyprus spike" way back in April 2013 when it spiked at $266. And sure enough - according to form - it went all the way back to retest that level and a bit more for good measure. Note this is very different to the situation we have now on 3 counts:

1. the rise from $1000 to $19k (16k realistically) is comparable in relative terms but has taken a whole year instead of just 7 weeks

2. we have 3 fairly hefty consolidations which more or less overlap each other and we've almost arrived at the last of those already

3. the correction is rapid and deep which is a good sign because it snaps the market quickly back into a more reasonable trend that can be sustained (see previous "propellor corrections how they've played out).

Note: the angle between the support level and the 3 retracement lines in the 2013 chart below. You can see from that that the closer the retracement occurs to the peak blow-off, the higher the bottom will be. 2014 went low because it retraced so slowly and didn't hit the fan-line for a whole year.

Conclusion is, this means the bottom will be in fairly quickly and it's likely to be in the region of the $7500 level +/- 20% in my opinion followed by a fairly rapid (21 day) retrace to the upside as shorts close and off-book demand goes back onto the order books. If not, there are still a furter two consolidation levels available below that but it'd be a brave shorter that would put a lot of money behind adverse trades at those levels given the precedents IMO.

[explorer]

People, things are not complicated, this is not some kind of natural disaster, what is happening is that scammers at Scamfinex have to produce 1 US$ for every 1 USDT they produced out of the thin air, or they will go to jail. No matter how low the price is, they have no choice but to sell BTC, there's no other way they can produce US$. Point is they can not sell your coins, they can only sell theirs. It's that simple, why would anyone care if they loose the whole sum they've acquired through scam? They can either sell enough to cover the scam, or fail and go to jail. Sooner or later they will run out of BTC and the line will be drown under, their BTC will be in someone else hands, but your BTC will remain in yours. It's that simple, as someone said 1 BTC will always be 1 BTC, there's no reason to fear of their failure. Only way you can fail is to sell your coins, otherwise you can not lose because this is not your game that is happening right now.

What makes you think they can’t sell “your” coins?

Simple.  YOUR coins are in YOUR control.  If they are on an exchange, they are NOT YOUR COINS.  Not that User705 needs to hear this, but there are a lot of noobs that need it drummed into their heads repeatedly.

My bad I thought you were implying they can’t sell the coins you think are “yours” on their exchange. 

I think you are probably correct.  My statement was more of a support to yours 

[Toxic2040]

Simple.  YOUR coins are in YOUR control.  If they are on an exchange, they are NOT YOUR COINS.  Not that User705 needs to hear this, but there are a lot of noobs that need it drummed into their heads repeatedly.

Missed this as the pages whirled by.
Yep..should be a sticky somewhere..should be a required opsec course to get a forum account instead of these dumb ass sMerits. 

[Biodom]

Not sure where we bottom, but PTB are surely playing with fire here, possibly.

In 2000, PTB started to opine about a "biotech bubble" (extreme bubble within the large nasdaq), which properly collapsed in Feb 2000, then all of Nasdaq followed in April, then ALL stocks followed in September.

One should be careful trying to puncture one "bubble", yet wanting to preserve the others (stock and bond market).

[TERA2]

I have to admit theres a lot of big orders being thrown down at these levels.

[Enjel]

Torknormal - your post is very convincing, but you did also say "$1k" due to the Tether FUD.

I still haven't heard an explanation from anyone as to how USDT drives the whole market such that BTC would crash more than 30% if it turned out, say, that USDT has 0 reserves.

The latest one I heard was that Bitfinex and other USDT markets (which make up a fraction of the whole volume for BTC) impact everything else through arbitrage, and so if Bitfinex goes to $2000 BTC, then everything else will follow, all because of USDT with a puny 2 billion USD market cap.

Anything else?

Otherwise, I'm inclined to believe that the correction is fine, unless we hit 7.7k.

[toknormal]

Another merit seeking post I am sure......what about the one quoted below?....I cannot wait for your next post that contradicts this one.

Yes, sorry about that.

Unfortunately the cynical, jokular side of my brain that takes 2 seconds to write posts does not often talk to the contemplative, analytical and research-orinted side which takes 2 hours to write them which is why I had to go away and check which one to believe in this case.

The ghost of the 2014 consolidation likes to haunt my sense of reality on a regular basis. Scarred for life after spending 18 months thinking "ok, this is the bottom". However, it would appear there is at least some logic to it after all that says things are indeed "the same but different this time"

[becoin]

I have to admit theres a lot of big orders being thrown down at these levels.

Whoever is selling, thank you for the cheap coins. Appreciated as always!

[El duderino_]

Selling Goes slower and slower the three has been shaking hard enough by now however price is still high When we look to 1 year back , but iT would be Nice to start from here and finally Going to the high prices we all thought 2018 was Going to bring us
And Just turn This bloody red into greeeeen and especially me is not selling even not possible to sell BTC as they are all the way in belgium standing on ledgers as i am @thailand for holiday ..... maybe a few on Exchanges but offcourse not touching the eather @this times
I can handle This dips, BUT offcourse When in holiday like to see UPWARD pressure much more than This f****** downward movements  
So for the other 11days give me a break to and let us all MOON together

[toknormal]

Torknormal - your post is very convincing, but you did also say "$1k" due to the Tether FUD.

Enjel = see above post.

[fabiorem]

The correction is technical, pure and simple.

I was thinking no TA works anymore, but your analysis seems very reasonable. I hope it works.

[El duderino_]

I have to admit theres a lot of big orders being thrown down at these levels.

Whoever is selling, thank you for the cheap coins. Appreciated as always!

Hear This Many times and Many of us thinking the same , but what When fiat runs out and theres No more fiat to buy any?? At that circumstances those can Just hope to go back up ?  

[PoolMinor]

Another merit seeking post I am sure......what about the one quoted below?....I cannot wait for your next post that contradicts this one.

Yes, sorry about that.

Unfortunately the cynical, jokular side of my brain that takes 2 seconds to write posts does not often talk to the contemplative, analytical and research-orinted side which takes 2 hours to write them which is why I had to go away and check which one to believe in this case.

The ghost of the 2014 consolidation likes to haunt my sense of reality on a regular basis. Scarred for life after spending 18 months thinking "ok, this is the bottom". However, it would appear there is at least some logic to it after all that says things are indeed "the same but different this time"

It's ok, I could go and edit the part I quoted if you do the same, just annex the last line with "/s" for clearly a sarcastic theory.

Or I will delete mine, and you can edit yours.

Edit:
I do appreciate your input and time that you take in showing your TA and opinions. Thank you.