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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21534490 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (142 posts by 32 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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June 06, 2018, 12:50:24 AM
Last edit: June 06, 2018, 01:14:14 AM by JayJuanGee


Actually, that is a nice link infofront.  The investment and cashing out strategy looks to be fairly similar to mine - except for that strategy seems to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.  My above example uses a similar proportion of cashing out 5% for every 50% price rise.  Further, if you know that in late 2013 Rpietila had a BTCtalk thread on the topic too, and Rpietila was suggesting to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.

In about 2014/2015 I constructed a similar strategy to rpietila; however, I did not want to wait for BTC prices to double before cashing out 10%, so I played around with much smaller variations that are similar in their proportions, and I tend to play around with cashing out 1% for every 10% rise in price and I even play in smaller increments, too while keeping the cashing out proportions approximately the same or sometimes playing around a bit with the proportions if I am in more of a gambling mood.    I believe that there were periods of time that I was cashing out higher proportions of BTC because I already realized that there was a pretty damned high likelihood that I would be using all or part of the cashed out money to buy back in, so I did not mind cashing out a bit more in order to attempt to more or less maintain a 10/1 ratio by accounting for my anticipated buying back.

It is true that some peeps are going to be comfortable to wait for 100% price rises before cashing out, but I think that such expectations can become a bit difficult to put into practice because for some other peeps it is going to be difficult to wait that amount of a BTC price appreciation before cashing out.. especially when peeps are already scared that BTC prices are going to reverse back down.  

My personal approach has been to use such an incremental cashing out strategy to reinvest decent portions of what I had cashed out in order to buy back into BTC with dips.  So far, I have found that even with reinvesting part of the value that I have cashed out, my incremental cashing out and reinvesting strategy tends to generate a decent amount of cashed out fiat (and perhaps my feeling even excessive amounts of fiat) in order for me to feel personally comfortable that I have plenty of fiat to work with to buy more BTC on dips or just to walk away with that fiat in the event that I chose not to reinvest it.   On the other side of the coin, I also feel comfortable with the amount of BTC that I am retaining in my holdings because I will always have a moderate amount and I am never cashing out more than a certain proportion that I had previously established as acceptable for me (which in my full and complete discretion, I can re-think the matter and change those amounts and increments at any time too).
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June 06, 2018, 01:46:14 AM

I will concede that perhaps I am a bit resentful of profits made by others during this kind of seemingly low volatility

And you castigated me for setting my interval at 'such a low value' (i.e., less than the interval you chose). Well, you reap what you sow.
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June 06, 2018, 02:03:41 AM


Actually, that is a nice link infofront.  The investment and cashing out strategy looks to be fairly similar to mine - except for that strategy seems to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.  My above example uses a similar proportion of cashing out 5% for every 50% price rise.  Further, if you know that in late 2013 Rpietila had a BTCtalk thread on the topic too, and Rpietila was suggesting to cash out 10% for every 100% price rise.

In about 2014/2015 I constructed a similar strategy to rpietila; however, I did not want to wait for BTC prices to double before cashing out 10%, so I played around with much smaller variations that are similar in their proportions, and I tend to play around with cashing out 1% for every 10% rise in price and I even play in smaller increments, too while keeping the cashing out proportions approximately the same or sometimes playing around a bit with the proportions if I am in more of a gambling mood.    I believe that there were periods of time that I was cashing out higher proportions of BTC because I already realized that there was a pretty damned high likelihood that I would be using all or part of the cashed out money to buy back in, so I did not mind cashing out a bit more in order to attempt to more or less maintain a 10/1 ratio by accounting for my anticipated buying back.

It is true that some peeps are going to be comfortable to wait for 100% price rises before cashing out, but I think that such expectations can become a bit difficult to put into practice because for some other peeps it is going to be difficult to wait that amount of a BTC price appreciation before cashing out.. especially when peeps are already scared that BTC prices are going to reverse back down.  

My personal approach has been to use such an incremental cashing out strategy to reinvest decent portions of what I had cashed out in order to buy back into BTC with dips.  So far, I have found that even with reinvesting part of the value that I have cashed out, my incremental cashing out and reinvesting strategy tends to generate a decent amount of cashed out fiat (and perhaps my feeling even excessive amounts of fiat) in order for me to feel personally comfortable that I have plenty of fiat to work with to buy more BTC on dips or just to walk away with that fiat in the event that I chose not to reinvest it.   On the other side of the coin, I also feel comfortable with the amount of BTC that I am retaining in my holdings because I will always have a moderate amount and I am never cashing out more than a certain proportion that I had previously established as acceptable for me (which in my full and complete discretion, I can re-think the matter and change those amounts and increments at any time too).

Yeah that website was based on Rpietila's strategy. He came up with that when we nearly hit $1,200, if memory serves me right. He was having a manic episode and was likely too aggressive with his pricing predictions.

Your plan actually makes more sense.
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June 06, 2018, 02:18:45 AM

I will concede that perhaps I am a bit resentful of profits made by others during this kind of seemingly low volatility

And you castigated me for setting my interval at 'such a low value' (i.e., less than the interval you chose). Well, you reap what you sow.

Thanks for making me laugh jbreher dee bear.

It seems to me that both of us recognize a certain level of balance that comes with choosing our increments, choosing our amounts and choosing whether to leverage.   I am recognizing that some folks are going to make a lot more money when they gamble and they get the direction right, but my concession does not result in me changing my strategy.

Perhaps, there is a bit of a feeling that the grass is greener on the other side, but really, I am not going to change my strategy.... because I already know that I cannot both have my cake and eat it too... I have to chose something that works for me, and it does work for me.. even though I might be a little jealous when I see that others are making profits from risky strategies.

Jbreher.. dee bear... you and I have already pretty much battled out this topic, so I am a bit confused (to the extent that I am not humored) that you want to beat up on this topic some more?

I will concede that trading $250 increments in the $6k to $10k price arena makes more sense than it would in the $14k to $17k price range, so even I brought down my trading increments based upon where the price is currently... Adaptation to new conditions, right?  Neither of us is stagnant, or at least I hope not.  We have to adjust with the changing conditions of the market, even though we might be tweaking here and there rather than making large changes... We are on a similar page in regards to ongoing tweaking strategies and attempting to learn from mistakes, no?
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June 06, 2018, 03:11:15 AM

I will concede that perhaps I am a bit resentful of profits made by others during this kind of seemingly low volatility

And you castigated me for setting my interval at 'such a low value' (i.e., less than the interval you chose). Well, you reap what you sow.
I will concede that trading $250 increments in the $6k to $10k price arena makes more sense than it would in the $14k to $17k price range, so even I brought down my trading increments based upon where the price is currently... Adaptation to new conditions, right?  Neither of us is stagnant, or at least I hope not.  We have to adjust with the changing conditions of the market, even though we might be tweaking here and there rather than making large changes... We are on a similar page in regards to ongoing tweaking strategies and attempting to learn from mistakes, no?

Adjusting to the reality on the ground can make sense.

Note that 'castigated' seems an accurate depiction of your past pronouncements on my strategy. (this viewed in ponderation of other peoples' presently pointing out your posting proclivities may provide probability to give your person pause)

We're currently in a $125 range for me. After we go up for a fair bit, we'll be in what is currently my $250 interval range. Which presently continues well past previous ATH. I consider any above previous ATH to be subject to interval change. These standing sell orders above previous ATH are all built from coin-side profits built on earlier transactions. When a trade unit sized profit is made, it gets entered as a sell on the top of the ladder.

If I were a more diligent sort, I'd build my interval upon a sliding percentage scale. But such would be more labor intensive to manage.

There is also a fair bit to be said for sticking with the parameters once chosen, as that makes the trading automatic. C'est la guerre.
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June 06, 2018, 03:27:40 AM

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again. Roll Eyes


Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk


JayJuanGee
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June 06, 2018, 03:37:38 AM

I will concede that perhaps I am a bit resentful of profits made by others during this kind of seemingly low volatility

And you castigated me for setting my interval at 'such a low value' (i.e., less than the interval you chose). Well, you reap what you sow.
I will concede that trading $250 increments in the $6k to $10k price arena makes more sense than it would in the $14k to $17k price range, so even I brought down my trading increments based upon where the price is currently... Adaptation to new conditions, right?  Neither of us is stagnant, or at least I hope not.  We have to adjust with the changing conditions of the market, even though we might be tweaking here and there rather than making large changes... We are on a similar page in regards to ongoing tweaking strategies and attempting to learn from mistakes, no?

Adjusting to the reality on the ground can make sense.

Note that 'castigated' seems an accurate depiction of your past pronouncements on my strategy. (this viewed in ponderation of other peoples' presently pointing out your posting proclivities may provide probability to give your person pause)

No. It is not going to give me "personal pause."  I was asking you about your strategy, and I suggested that your $250 price increments were too small when BTC prices were moving around so much and they were about in the $14k arena.  $250 increments is not bad at this price range and with our current lack of price movement.

We're currently in a $125 range for me.

Yes, you like to play your increments more tightly than me.  We established that.

After we go up for a fair bit, we'll be in what is currently my $250 interval range. Which presently continues well past previous ATH.

Yes.. my increments are greater, and it seems that if prices get close to $20k, then my increments become over $1k.. so yeah, as the price goes up, I am hoping to trade less and less... which causes more of a retirement from smaller swing trades, perhaps?  Will see how it works out.

I consider any above previous ATH to be subject to interval change. These standing sell orders above previous ATH are all built from coin-side profits built on earlier transactions. When a trade unit sized profit is made, it gets entered as a sell on the top of the ladder.

If I were a more diligent sort, I'd build my interval upon a sliding percentage scale. But such would be more labor intensive to manage.

There is also a fair bit to be said for sticking with the parameters once chosen, as that makes the trading automatic. C'est la guerre.

Fair enough... but I also give a certain extra slippage to certain price points, that will cause my increments to become greater in areas of anticipated low resistance, but I learned my lesson when I did not sell enough when the price jumped from $280 to $505 to continue to sell on the way up therefore, if I anticipate possible extra slippage, then I just make my increments greater in order to account for that and to take advantage of that likelihood.....
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June 06, 2018, 03:56:10 AM
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Just Hodl, the next 2 halvings will be epic.


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June 06, 2018, 03:59:31 AM

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again. Roll Eyes


Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk



Well then ok.
But is hijacking a tank sane behaviour?
https://youtu.be/jFnmTgi0tOw

He heard bitcoin price is on the move. Cheesy
mymenace
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June 06, 2018, 04:37:28 AM

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again. Roll Eyes


Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk



Well then ok.
But is hijacking a tank sane behaviour?
https://youtu.be/jFnmTgi0tOw

He heard bitcoin price is on the move. Cheesy


Yes

Who would not want to hijack a tank, you gonna get a floggin when you get caught though

If you have the money for the police violations

Happy days




Running people over with it and acting in a dangerous manner thats insane




By the way any chance this person was under FBI or CIA surveillance for years on end

This being the point I was making.
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June 06, 2018, 04:39:53 AM

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again. Roll Eyes
Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk



Well then ok.
But is hijacking a tank sane behaviour?
https://youtu.be/jFnmTgi0tOw

He heard bitcoin price is on the move. Cheesy


Yes

Who would not want to hijack a tank

If you have the money for the police violations

Happy days


Running people over with it and acting in a dangerous manner thats insane

By the way any chance this person was under FBI or CIA surveillance for years on end

This being the point I was making.

So Mcafee is?
Why would a person being under fbi or cia surveillance be acting this way? Undecided
https://imgur.com/a/xCkks6i
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June 06, 2018, 04:43:59 AM
Last edit: June 06, 2018, 05:32:39 AM by mymenace

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again. Roll Eyes


Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk



Well then ok.
But is hijacking a tank sane behaviour?
https://youtu.be/jFnmTgi0tOw

He heard bitcoin price is on the move. Cheesy


Yes

Who would not want to hijack a tank

If you have the money for the police violations

Happy days


Running people over with it and acting in a dangerous manner thats insane


By the way any chance this person was under FBI or CIA surveillance for years on end

This being the point I was making.

So Mcafee is?
Why would a person being under fbi or cia surveillance be acting this way? Undecided



Something wrong, are you ok?

"Why would a person being under fbi or cia surveillance be acting this way? "





Can anyone else give just a feeble explanation?


Are you omitting something, different agenda maybe

please explain



You have been weighed, you have been measured, you have been found wanting

Let the games begin
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June 06, 2018, 06:34:57 AM

Ok guys. DO YOU HAVE YOUR ROCKET PICTURES READY???
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June 06, 2018, 06:43:29 AM

Is John Mcafee insane?
https://imgur.com/a/hX1LnA8

You check his twitter feed lately?
All his tweets are about crypto coins/morphing his head on other people and running for the POTUS.. again. Roll Eyes


Quite the opposite actually

If you knew what he knew, you would think you are crazy.

These behaviors are consistent with people under Constant Intelligence Attacks by national spy agencies

John Lennon
Julian Assange
Kim Dotcom
John McAffee
Elon Musk



Well then ok.
But is hijacking a tank sane behaviour?
https://youtu.be/jFnmTgi0tOw

He heard bitcoin price is on the move. Cheesy


Yes

Who would not want to hijack a tank

If you have the money for the police violations

Happy days


Running people over with it and acting in a dangerous manner thats insane


By the way any chance this person was under FBI or CIA surveillance for years on end

This being the point I was making.

So Mcafee is?
Why would a person being under fbi or cia surveillance be acting this way? Undecided



Something wrong, are you ok?

"Why would a person being under fbi or cia surveillance be acting this way? "





Can anyone else give just a feeble explanation?


Are you omitting something, different agenda maybe

please explain



You have been weighed, you have been measured, you have been found wanting

Let the games begin


I think the reason why he is running for president is his promise last year that he will eat his dick. He must pump btc fast if he does not want to eat his junk.

And what better way to pump it than through national campaign that is world-watched
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June 06, 2018, 06:44:21 AM

I prefer trains pics before 10K but after that please, rockets only  Wink

Where's Jimbo when you need him  Sad
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June 06, 2018, 06:51:12 AM

This is not going down to 5K, is it, bears.

The correct number is stabilizing around $4200-4400 after ScamFinex owners first try to fake out a move lower to kill longs, then attempt to pump it after the fakeout with tether money that does not exist, finds no buyers because there is no way in hell you are closing that gap to $20k, then it implodes to the $4.2-4.4k level.
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June 06, 2018, 07:03:28 AM


I think the reason why he is running for president is his promise last year that he will eat his dick. He must pump btc fast if he does not want to eat his junk.

And what better way to pump it than through national campaign that is world-watched


Sounds very plausible

I would do the same faced with such dilemma

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June 06, 2018, 07:12:01 AM

Has anyone else noticed the distinct rise in communism (or whatever the current name is for it, progressive, democratic socialist, etc.) on the Internet lately?

Even on reddit crypto forums where they're supporting something that will take away power from the state...it is like a virus.

Perhaps it is just the reaction to the crumbling economies and everyone is looking for a safety net. Blaming capitalism for the mess the governments have created.

I can only hope to make it to the last refuge on a seastead using crypto before it engulfs the rest of the world.
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June 06, 2018, 07:18:19 AM

I can only hope to make it to the last refuge on a seastead using crypto before it engulfs the rest of the world.

Since the Jews are running a 100% identical plan against the US as they already used against Russia in the past, there is no element of surprise or confusion as to what's going on and they'll just be hunted down and exterminated like the evil cult they are.
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June 06, 2018, 07:26:38 AM
Merited by Torque (1)


BS about Juice

Out of curiosity, what would you do with your life if the joos are no longer the boogyman?

Seriously? It is something I contemplated myself with my hatred for the state and the amount of time I spent of my life fighting for liberty. Only to realize that so much of my life was wasted fighting for something nobody else really wants.

What's on the other side of victory? For me I am discovering that. What is it I am fighting for? What, in my own life, is being restricted by the evil government?

The reality is I can find freedom in my own life and not worry about them. I can move forward in my own life and have that future on my own. I can focus on the things I'd wanted to do before getting caught up in the whole political game. Sure, the knowledge of how things work has helped in my decision making, but I don't have to be a warrior for "the cause". I can be a warrior for my self.
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