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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21172292 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
mindrust
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August 17, 2018, 07:19:45 AM

Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  

There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.

That's me you are talking about.  Grin Then I bought shit ton of bitcoins above $5k and my average is 3k now. It is OK, past is past and there is nothing I can do for what happened already, what matters is the future. Now I am a member of Hodlgang.

Elwar said something pretty accurate a few pages back,

Throughout the last year I was told how "lucky" I was to have so many bitcoins. They wished they got in so "early" like me, that they were not so "lucky".

Think of all of the people selling right now. Think of all of the people buying right now. The people selling are doing something easy. The people buying are doing something hard.

Holding BTC right now is hard, it's not easy. When you do something that is hard and are rewarded, that is not luck. That is a reward that is earned.

I have earned every bit of what I have, and then some, having been through these tough times several times and not buckled.

I am not lucky. I am strong.

That's why early adopters are rich. They took the risk I refused to take back in the day.

If you think $5-6k isn't cheap enough, you'll never get rich.
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JayJuanGee
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August 17, 2018, 07:47:03 AM

Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  

There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.

That's me you are talking about.  Grin

I was kind of thinking about a post made by infofront a few pages back, in which he indicated that the sentiment that bitcoin prices was going to go further down had increased from a bit less than 50% in April to a bit more than 80% in recent times.    So, yeah, perhaps you could have been considered in the 80%?

Then I bought shit ton of bitcoins above $5k and my average is 3k now.

I know how any of us can get caught up about thinking about our average cost per BTC, and also considering that we could have had a lower number if x, y or z, but in the end, we have to attempt to learn from our mistakes, and don't become too extreme in our betting.

If you recall Elwar had been buying into bitcoin since before 2013, and likely he made a lot of mistakes too.  If you recall somewhere in about mid 2016 (around $650), he had made a really large purchase into bitcoin with a kind of leveraging (using proceeds from a sale), and a lot of folks accused him of being crazy.  I think he was under water for a while, and it was around the time of the bitfinex hack, so people accused him of being stupid.  Anyhow, my point is that a lot of people can invest and even be underwater for a while, yet with the right strategies (especially engaging in long term thinking), end up coming out quite well.. and even with a lot of equity built up in their bitcoin investment due to just HODLing through the ups and downs and in the long run, the average price per BTC does not look as large - meaning your level of profits become more and more considerable.


It is OK, past is past and there is nothing I can do for what happened already, what matters is the future. Now I am a member of Hodlgang.

Actually what matters is all of that including the past, but surely both the future and the present are important too.. because each of us still has to employ our individual strategy and even tweak our strategy in the present based on our own financial situation which can differ in terms of our cash flow, cash reserves, risk tolerance, timeline, view of bitcoin, etc..


Elwar said something pretty accurate a few pages back,

Throughout the last year I was told how "lucky" I was to have so many bitcoins. They wished they got in so "early" like me, that they were not so "lucky".

Think of all of the people selling right now. Think of all of the people buying right now. The people selling are doing something easy. The people buying are doing something hard.

Holding BTC right now is hard, it's not easy. When you do something that is hard and are rewarded, that is not luck. That is a reward that is earned.

I have earned every bit of what I have, and then some, having been through these tough times several times and not buckled.

I am not lucky. I am strong.

That's why early adopters are rich. They took the risk I refused to take back in the day.

Probably an important aspect is that you seemed to have learned from the whole way that this bitcoin invention is playing out, and a lot of us recognize that the adoption level of bitcoin remains so small, and even if the whole damned thing fails, there is a kind of ability to weigh the probabilities of success and the probabilities of failure, and figure out that it is quite wise to put some decent sized stake into bitcoin - even if it is less than 10% of your total financial investment assets.  Sometimes you might not want to risk too much but even with a relatively small bet, your bitcoin portion of your investment has decent probabilities of outperforming your other investments in the longer term.


If you think $5-6k isn't cheap enough, you'll never get rich.

I think that I agree with what you are saying here, because we should have some stake into bitcoin, even if we believe that the price is going lower.  So,  we do have to have some stake in the game in case the price does not go down, but instead goes up.  Accordingly, we are prepared for the BTC price to go either UP or DOWN.
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August 17, 2018, 07:48:19 AM

Buying is not really the hardest part.

Not selling when it pumps or dumps insanely is.


 
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August 17, 2018, 08:03:44 AM

Buying is not really the hardest part.

Not selling when it pumps or dumps insanely is.


 

Yeah, I remember myself struggling not to sell my extra BTC I got from dumping BCH during the $20k+ December pump.  Grin
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August 17, 2018, 08:34:47 AM

Now that regular Joe was introduced to bitcoin over the last 8 months and there's quite a few more waiting to BTFD, I'm expecting up to have the lesser resistance over the coming months.  If we are to drop into the lower 5k ranges, I suspect its going to be violent.  

There is also a possibility that those 80% expecting further BTC price drops are going to get fucked out of their "cheap coins."

There were folks waiting in 2015 for cheap coins, and did not appreciate $200s as being cheap enough for them.

That's me you are talking about.  Grin

I was kind of thinking about a post made by infofront a few pages back, in which he indicated that the sentiment that bitcoin prices was going to go further down had increased from a bit less than 50% in April to a bit more than 80% in recent times.    So, yeah, perhaps you could have been considered in the 80%?

Then I bought shit ton of bitcoins above $5k and my average is 3k now.

I know how any of us can get caught up about thinking about our average cost per BTC, and also considering that we could have had a lower number if x, y or z, but in the end, we have to attempt to learn from our mistakes, and don't become too extreme in our betting.

If you recall Elwar had been buying into bitcoin since before 2013, and likely he made a lot of mistakes too.  If you recall somewhere in about mid 2016 (around $650), he had made a really large purchase into bitcoin with a kind of leveraging (using proceeds from a sale), and a lot of folks accused him of being crazy.  I think he was under water for a while, and it was around the time of the bitfinex hack, so people accused him of being stupid.  Anyhow, my point is that a lot of people can invest and even be underwater for a while, yet with the right strategies (especially engaging in long term thinking), end up coming out quite well.. and even with a lot of equity built up in their bitcoin investment due to just HODLing through the ups and downs and in the long run, the average price per BTC does not look as large - meaning your level of profits become more and more considerable.


It is OK, past is past and there is nothing I can do for what happened already, what matters is the future. Now I am a member of Hodlgang.

Actually what matters is all of that including the past, but surely both the future and the present are important too.. because each of us still has to employ our individual strategy and even tweak our strategy in the present based on our own financial situation which can differ in terms of our cash flow, cash reserves, risk tolerance, timeline, view of bitcoin, etc..


Elwar said something pretty accurate a few pages back,

Throughout the last year I was told how "lucky" I was to have so many bitcoins. They wished they got in so "early" like me, that they were not so "lucky".

Think of all of the people selling right now. Think of all of the people buying right now. The people selling are doing something easy. The people buying are doing something hard.

Holding BTC right now is hard, it's not easy. When you do something that is hard and are rewarded, that is not luck. That is a reward that is earned.

I have earned every bit of what I have, and then some, having been through these tough times several times and not buckled.

I am not lucky. I am strong.

That's why early adopters are rich. They took the risk I refused to take back in the day.

Probably an important aspect is that you seemed to have learned from the whole way that this bitcoin invention is playing out, and a lot of us recognize that the adoption level of bitcoin remains so small, and even if the whole damned thing fails, there is a kind of ability to weigh the probabilities of success and the probabilities of failure, and figure out that it is quite wise to put some decent sized stake into bitcoin - even if it is less than 10% of your total financial investment assets.  Sometimes you might not want to risk too much but even with a relatively small bet, your bitcoin portion of your investment has decent probabilities of outperforming your other investments in the longer term.


If you think $5-6k isn't cheap enough, you'll never get rich.

I think that I agree with what you are saying here, because we should have some stake into bitcoin, even if we believe that the price is going lower.  So,  we do have to have some stake in the game in case the price does not go down, but instead goes up.  Accordingly, we are prepared for the BTC price to go either UP or DOWN.


Many years of following the wall observer proved every strategy correct
Essential in maintaining and increasing your wealth
The years see many falls, calculated risk, scams and bad luck
Always best to follow your money and not lose sight
If anyone ever steals your money, never stop looking
One day you might get your opportunity

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August 17, 2018, 08:58:12 AM



maybe there is a declining trend in % dropped.
From about 90% (real number was 93-94%)
to about 80% (about 86% to be exact)
to?

94-86-78?

78% from 19783 is about $4350 (not predicting it because it could be 72-80).


That is one way of putting it. Seems reasonable and hopeful.

On that basis the bottom for this bear market should come in around $4k.
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August 17, 2018, 09:03:05 AM
Last edit: August 17, 2018, 09:42:29 AM by HairyMaclairy

What do you call a deer with no eyes?

No eye.deer
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August 17, 2018, 09:20:18 AM

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(18)30135-X/fulltext
Dietary carbohydrate intake and mortality: a prospective cohort study and meta-analysis
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-45195474
Low-carb diets could shorten life, study suggests

Unpopular study getting little love from bitcoin carnivore types.
(The research is pretty shoddy)

eg https://twitter.com/shillycrypto/status/1029707201726828546
Also the FDA recommended diet / food pyramid are already proven by nutritionists to be terrible. Too much carbs, not enough fat / protein. There's science behind carnivory, it's not just a contrarian thing.

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August 17, 2018, 09:23:41 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMQX3l7OYYo&feature=youtu.be
Losing Money Without Losing Your Edge | Peter Brandt Mental Game of Trading
Quote
Peter explains some of the common mental pitfalls that can commonly affect traders. He explains how to deal with painful drawdowns, opens up about his own worst losing period, and reveals what it took for him to get back into the black.

Hes had drawdowns as much as 37%. AHAHAHA amateur Cheesy. I draw down 37% on a good day!

Yep. 37% is a joke. BTC'ers hodled thru -90% , twice.   Some alt holders hodled thru -98% and one or two even came good after that!
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August 17, 2018, 09:34:52 AM



it would be a nice time to blow the BULLS horn Grin
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August 17, 2018, 10:08:48 AM

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August 17, 2018, 10:26:06 AM

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(18)30135-X/fulltext
Dietary carbohydrate intake and mortality: a prospective cohort study and meta-analysis
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-45195474
Low-carb diets could shorten life, study suggests

Unpopular study getting little love from bitcoin carnivore types.
(The research is pretty shoddy)

eg https://twitter.com/shillycrypto/status/1029707201726828546
Also the FDA recommended diet / food pyramid are already proven by nutritionists to be terrible. Too much carbs, not enough fat / protein. There's science behind carnivory, it's not just a contrarian thing.

Incomplete if they're not categorizing keto diets separate from low-carb. Keto is way different.
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August 17, 2018, 10:35:55 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)



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August 17, 2018, 10:39:08 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

Well well well... what do we have here.



Gentlemen, start your engines!
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August 17, 2018, 10:45:19 AM

Well well well... what do we have here.

[imghttps://i.imgur.com/5zjzA0I.png[/img]http://Gentlemen, start your engines!

The pattern of a head and shoulders?


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August 17, 2018, 11:57:46 AM
Last edit: August 17, 2018, 12:25:09 PM by Torque

OT : "Let's get rid of quarterly earnings reports"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/trump-pushes-for-an-end-to-quarterly-earnings-reports.html

What a great idea! In fact, let's get rid of all profit reporting all together! I mean, it's not like they're hiding shit with 'creative accounting' and stock buybacks every quarter, every year. And the stock prices are so overblown and out of whack with P/E anyway... so who cares. The traders certainly don't give a shit. Amiright??

/s  Roll Eyes  Tongue
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August 17, 2018, 12:32:23 PM

Torque:

I'm fine with that, as it's bullish for both bitcoin and any company that releases their info on a blockchain so all can see it. Companies that don't will become havens of fraud, and will eventually implode the old fashioned way.

At which time slavery will be brought back to prop them up. Funny how every political decision seems to come back to good ole slavery.
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August 17, 2018, 12:34:47 PM
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What do you call a deer with no eyes?

No eye.deer



 Grin


weeeeee
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August 17, 2018, 12:36:25 PM

OT : "Let's get rid of quarterly earnings reports"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/trump-pushes-for-an-end-to-quarterly-earnings-reports.html

What a great idea! In fact, let's get rid of all profit reporting all together! I mean, it's not like they're hiding shit with 'creative accounting' and stock buybacks every quarter, every year. And the stock prices are so overblown and out of whack with P/E anyway... so who cares. The traders certainly don't give a shit. Amiright??

/s  Roll Eyes  Tongue


replaced by debt clock on top of the white house .. Smiley  chee chee chee
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August 17, 2018, 01:22:10 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), Anon136 (1)

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