Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[lightfoot]

Tell me about it: I had to drill a small hole in my head and do a micro-lobotomy so I wouldn't remember where I left my bitcoins :-)
 
:-)

[bones261]

I never understood this idea that Bitmain was BUYING BCH. I believe they have only been accepting BCH as PAYMENT for their machines for a while now. So, if you are selling a crap ton of machines and receiving BCH for it, then the amount of BCH you OWN is going to go up significantly. YES??

Well, for quite a few months now, they are back to accepting other forms of payments. However, a good chunk of the BCH stash that they had back in March can probably be attributed to mining and proceeds from sales. Also, they likely sold most of their BTC to keep their operations going, which have included several failed attempts to get a new SHA256 chip developed. I doubt they did much buying of BCH off of the markets, like some people accuse them of. The reason that I doubt it is because they can accumulate for much cheaper by selling their equipment for BCH and mining.

[Anon136]

Tell me about it: I had to drill a small hole in my head and do a micro-lobotomy so I wouldn't remember where I left my bitcoins :-)
 
:-)

Does anyone know if anyone has ever time locked a substantial chunk of bitcoin for a decade or more? People in 2010 would be glad they had, perhaps each any every one of us would be glad if we did right now for the same reasons.

[HairyMaclairy]

I never understood this idea that Bitmain was BUYING BCH. I believe they have only been accepting BCH as PAYMENT for their machines for a while now. So, if you are selling a crap ton of machines and receiving BCH for it, then the amount of BCH you OWN is going to go up significantly. YES??

Well, for quite a few months now, they are back to accepting other forms of payments. However, a good chunk of the BCH stash that they had back in March can probably be attributed to mining and proceeds from sales. Also, they likely sold most of their BTC to keep their operations going, which have included several failed attempts to get a new SHA256 chip developed. I doubt they did much buying of BCH off of the markets, like some people accuse them of. The reason that I doubt it is because they can accumulate for much cheaper by selling their equipment for BCH and mining.

Bitmain has never sold a single BCH they have mined. This has artificially supported the price of BCH which has close to zero  organic demand. They have sold their BTC to pay the electricity bills.

[windjc]

I never understood this idea that Bitmain was BUYING BCH. I believe they have only been accepting BCH as PAYMENT for their machines for a while now. So, if you are selling a crap ton of machines and receiving BCH for it, then the amount of BCH you OWN is going to go up significantly. YES??

Well, for quite a few months now, they are back to accepting other forms of payments. However, a good chunk of the BCH stash that they had back in March can probably be attributed to mining and proceeds from sales. Also, they likely sold most of their BTC to keep their operations going, which have included several failed attempts to get a new SHA256 chip developed. I doubt they did much buying of BCH off of the markets, like some people accuse them of. The reason that I doubt it is because they can accumulate for much cheaper by selling their equipment for BCH and mining.

Bitmain has never sold a single BCH they have mined. This has artificially supported the price of BCH which has close to zero  organic demand. They have sold their BTC to pay the electricity bills.

Well if that is true, although its hard to prove, it may have something to do with the fact that its pretty easy to sell tons of BTC over-the-counter. But I bet the demand for BCH OTC is pretty low.

[bones261]

I never understood this idea that Bitmain was BUYING BCH. I believe they have only been accepting BCH as PAYMENT for their machines for a while now. So, if you are selling a crap ton of machines and receiving BCH for it, then the amount of BCH you OWN is going to go up significantly. YES??

Well, for quite a few months now, they are back to accepting other forms of payments. However, a good chunk of the BCH stash that they had back in March can probably be attributed to mining and proceeds from sales. Also, they likely sold most of their BTC to keep their operations going, which have included several failed attempts to get a new SHA256 chip developed. I doubt they did much buying of BCH off of the markets, like some people accuse them of. The reason that I doubt it is because they can accumulate for much cheaper by selling their equipment for BCH and mining.

Bitmain has never sold a single BCH they have mined. This has artificially supported the price of BCH which has close to zero  organic demand. They have sold their BTC to pay the electricity bills.

Since when is mining and HODL "artificial" support? They can do whatever the hell they want with the coins that they mine. And now they have plenty of BCH to burn for their Wormhole project.   Don't worry. If things keep going like they are going, Bitmain should be REKT pretty soon.

[HairyMaclairy]

If you are a miner and never sell the coins mined, of course that restricts supply and pushes the price up.  This is the slide from their IPO deck showing they are well on their way to a million BCH in March.  

At that rate they should have 1.2 million BCH now.  Meanwhile the Bitfinex BCH order book is only 5,000 coins deep. This is a BCH overhang that is completely illiquid and cannot be sold.  Very different from Bitcoin which is a highly liquid asset.   The IPO is basically their attempt at a giant BCH OTC sale, with some dumb retail investors to be left with a bag that cannot be sold.  



The interesting analysis is how much of the 2017 Bitcoin spike was miners holding back supply?   I would love to see Bitmains books historically and compare to a price chart.   More mining competition should cause the cartel to break down and stabilize the Bitcoin price. 

[bones261]

If you are a miner and never sell the coins mined, of course that restricts supply and pushes the price up.  This is the slide from their IPO deck showing they are well on their way to a million BCH in March.  

At that rate they should have 1.2 million BCH now.  Meanwhile the Bitfinex BCH order book is only 5,000 coins deep. This is a BCH overhang that is completely illiquid and cannot be sold.  Very different from Bitcoin which is a highly liquid asset.   The IPO is basically their attempt at a giant OTC sale.

Only ~280k BCH have been mined since the end of March. Plus, they have stopped only accepting BCH for their equipment. Also, they now have competitors that are putting out better equipment then they are putting out. I doubt that they have accumulated 1.2 million BCH. They are strapped for cash and it does not appear their IPO is going to go over very well. I really doubt that they are in any position to attempt to buy more BCH. However, BCH has a few more billionaires who probably do have the resources to bolster the price of BCH. I'm afraid antminer's days are numbered unless they can get something going their way ASAP.

[Last of the V8s]

but muh 'bitmex: shitty platform, xclnt research though'

https://blog.bitmex.com/unboxing-bitmain/
We conclude that the IPO itself may go well, however going forwards the allocation of investor capital will be key and management may need to improve in this area.

[HairyMaclairy]

Only ~280k BCH have been mined since the end of March. Plus, they have stopped only accepting BCH for their equipment. Also, they now have competitors that are putting out better equipment then they are putting out. I doubt that they have accumulated 1.2 million BCH. They are strapped for cash and it does not appear their IPO is going to go over very well. I really doubt that they are in any position to attempt to buy more BCH. However, BCH has a few more billionaires who probably do have the resources to bolster the price of BCH. I'm afraid antminer's days are numbered unless they can get something going their way ASAP.

Ok your math checks out.  So the increase in BCH from Dec 31 to March 31 is ~162,00 for mining.  214,000 - 162,000 leaves 52,000 acquired by other means.  Hardware sales of 52,000 x $1500 average price = $78 million in sales in first quarter?  I don’t know if that is realistic or not.

[bones261]

Only ~280k BCH have been mined since the end of March. Plus, they have stopped only accepting BCH for their equipment. Also, they now have competitors that are putting out better equipment then they are putting out. I doubt that they have accumulated 1.2 million BCH. They are strapped for cash and it does not appear their IPO is going to go over very well. I really doubt that they are in any position to attempt to buy more BCH. However, BCH has a few more billionaires who probably do have the resources to bolster the price of BCH. I'm afraid antminer's days are numbered unless they can get something going their way ASAP.

Ok your math checks out.  So the increase in BCH from Dec 31 to March 31 is ~162,00 for mining.  214,000 - 162,000 leaves 52,000 acquired by other means.  Hardware sales of 52,000 x $1500 average price = $78 million in sales in first quarter?  I don’t know if that is realistic or not.

this is a good article on the topic. they made a good deal of BCH from sales of ASICs. https://medium.com/@btcWolves/a-bch-update-bitmain-bch-the-ipo-what-it-all-actually-means-354220b86ac3

[windjc]

Only ~280k BCH have been mined since the end of March. Plus, they have stopped only accepting BCH for their equipment. Also, they now have competitors that are putting out better equipment then they are putting out. I doubt that they have accumulated 1.2 million BCH. They are strapped for cash and it does not appear their IPO is going to go over very well. I really doubt that they are in any position to attempt to buy more BCH. However, BCH has a few more billionaires who probably do have the resources to bolster the price of BCH. I'm afraid antminer's days are numbered unless they can get something going their way ASAP.

Ok your math checks out.  So the increase in BCH from Dec 31 to March 31 is ~162,00 for mining.  214,000 - 162,000 leaves 52,000 acquired by other means.  Hardware sales of 52,000 x $1500 average price = $78 million in sales in first quarter?  I don’t know if that is realistic or not.

78 million is low. they sold a lot more than that.

[elrippos friend]

"-99.99%"... hmmm...

 

[Last of the V8s]

4am >yip >yap
dogs ever more convinced the French are invading
woof woof
geese and horses are quiet though
mrs: 'they must be in the house'
wander round with torch and crutches
a Springer thinks they're holed up in my study
open door, dogs rush in
wagging their tails?
grandson and girl fucking on my desk
emotions and laughter
rapid retreat back to bedroom
me: 'nothing, darling, just J and girl having midnight feast, forgot they were staying tbh'
mrs: 'disgusting man come here'
new hip still too painful
4:15 dogs are up now: 'let's go out'
yard starts waking up
crashing noises, giggling from study
fml not a good start to the day
shout at them to clear out
coffee and btc price: same old shit = good
logs, teamspeak, wall obs, twitter: same old shit = good
5:15 three hours ahead of self, what do?
wait, what? same old shit = good?
in a rut, can't rut, shoutyman
devil: buy a shiny to cheer self, watch tonevays live
angel: do something different
upshot: logging off for a bit

[becoin]

More mining competition should cause the cartel to break down and stabilize the Bitcoin price. 

On the contrary! Cartel break down will remove the ceiling to current bitcoin price as they sell all mined bitcoins to prevent bitmain cash price from complete collapse.

[HairyMaclairy]

V8 you are supposed to start with “be me”

[DaRude]

Only ~280k BCH have been mined since the end of March. Plus, they have stopped only accepting BCH for their equipment. Also, they now have competitors that are putting out better equipment then they are putting out. I doubt that they have accumulated 1.2 million BCH. They are strapped for cash and it does not appear their IPO is going to go over very well. I really doubt that they are in any position to attempt to buy more BCH. However, BCH has a few more billionaires who probably do have the resources to bolster the price of BCH. I'm afraid antminer's days are numbered unless they can get something going their way ASAP.

Ok your math checks out.  So the increase in BCH from Dec 31 to March 31 is ~162,00 for mining.  214,000 - 162,000 leaves 52,000 acquired by other means.  Hardware sales of 52,000 x $1500 average price = $78 million in sales in first quarter?  I don’t know if that is realistic or not.

this is a good article on the topic. they made a good deal of BCH from sales of ASICs. https://medium.com/@btcWolves/a-bch-update-bitmain-bch-the-ipo-what-it-all-actually-means-354220b86ac3

Bottom line the trend is clear, their BTC reserves are going down and bcash reserves are going up. Only one of those two is sustainable. And trends point to their BTC piggy bank already being exhausted. I'd love to short that turd on day one if they actually find enough idiots to carry them into IPO with those books. (How about we dump $10MM into illiquid market that we control thus bringing up our pre-ipo market cap by few billions! genius! Now who wants to buy these?)

Can't wait for the news, first blockchain IPO flaps on the opening day and "bitcoin" will die one more time

[bitserve]

Only ~280k BCH have been mined since the end of March. Plus, they have stopped only accepting BCH for their equipment. Also, they now have competitors that are putting out better equipment then they are putting out. I doubt that they have accumulated 1.2 million BCH. They are strapped for cash and it does not appear their IPO is going to go over very well. I really doubt that they are in any position to attempt to buy more BCH. However, BCH has a few more billionaires who probably do have the resources to bolster the price of BCH. I'm afraid antminer's days are numbered unless they can get something going their way ASAP.

Ok your math checks out.  So the increase in BCH from Dec 31 to March 31 is ~162,00 for mining.  214,000 - 162,000 leaves 52,000 acquired by other means.  Hardware sales of 52,000 x $1500 average price = $78 million in sales in first quarter?  I don’t know if that is realistic or not.

this is a good article on the topic. they made a good deal of BCH from sales of ASICs. https://medium.com/@btcWolves/a-bch-update-bitmain-bch-the-ipo-what-it-all-actually-means-354220b86ac3

Bottom line the trend is clear, their BTC reserves are going down and bcash reserves are going up. Only one of those two is sustainable. And trends point to their BTC piggy bank already being exhausted. I'd love to short that turd on day one if they actually find enough idiots to carry them into IPO with those books. (How about we dump $10MM into illiquid market that we control thus bringing up our pre-ipo market cap by few billions! genius! Now who wants to buy these?)

Can't wait for the news, first blockchain IPO flaps on the opening day and "bitcoin" will die one more time

I have mixed feelings on this one. For once I have always been very critic with some (not all to be honest) of Bitmain tactics and, mainly, I think they are a menace due to their almost monopolistic control of the mining hardware (something that seems to be lowering though)... but, OTOH, I don't think a complete instant failure would be good.

I would very much prefer they just go slowly down into irrelevancy over the years. The problem here is that they seem to be working hard to go belly up as fast as they can and that could have a negative short term impact on the ecosystem. Good thing their BTC reserves doesn't seem to be a huge threat right now as it would have been the case in 2017.

Anyway... let's see what turns out of this....

[d_eddie]

Bottom line the trend is clear, their BTC reserves are going down and bcash reserves are going up. Only one of those two is sustainable. And trends point to their BTC piggy bank already being exhausted. I'd love to short that turd on day one if they actually find enough idiots to carry them into IPO with those books. (How about we dump $10MM into illiquid market that we control thus bringing up our pre-ipo market cap by few billions! genius! Now who wants to buy these?)

Can't wait for the news, first blockchain IPO flaps on the opening day and "bitcoin" will die one more time

I have mixed feelings on this one. For once I have always been very critic with some (not all to be honest) of Bitmain tactics and, mainly, I think they are a menace due to their almost monopolistic control of the mining hardware (something that seems to be lowering though)... but, OTOH, I don't think a complete instant failure would be good.

I would very much prefer they just go slowly down into irrelevancy over the years. The problem here is that they seem to be working hard to go belly up as fast as they can and that could have a negative short term impact on the ecosystem. Good thing their BTC reserves doesn't seem to be a huge threat right now as it would have been the case in 2017.

I am with bitserve on this one. To quote the greats, we need another shitstorm like we need a hole in our heads. And as long as it's impossible to produce an accurate estimate of their BTC reserves, we can't possibly know how many waves, and how big, their death throes can create.

[HairyMaclairy]

Golden cross on 90 day MA



Golden cross on 30 week MA creeping closer