Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Aqualung89]

This year will almost end, and so far there is no positive air surge in the markets. This is how many people will know how many people will say something, but there is nothing definite.

[d_eddie]

Totally spitballing here, but this sort of resembles September 2015, right before we doubled by November.

Just spit-balling here....
What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales

And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern? And if we could conclude one of these is the actuality, does the above statement ring true?

Scarcity (long term)
News (short term)
Whales (short-medium term)

and Human psychology (always) as infofront said, since all 8 sources except scarcity can be traced back to it, ultimately.

[bitcoinPsycho]

[HairyMaclairy]

Weiss are idiots but it makes for a fun read

https://weisscryptocurrencyratings.com/news/4-bitcoin-bull-markets-big-lessons-learn-1308

In other news

[bitserve]

^^^LOL ^^^

[BonBuason]

Unpleasant reality)

[bitcoinPsycho]

Unpleasant reality)

maybe your reality . certainly not mine

[d_eddie]

Unpleasant reality)

Just a picture. How funny! Really original and subtle.
And the discussion! The supporting arguments!
What an invaluable contribution to this thread.
We have so few posts, we really needed that.
Thank you!












NOT!


You ain't gonna make many friends here, man.


(Strongly inspired by JJG for the "NOT" pattern. Credit where it's due.)

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/Cryptanzee/status/1038069103611797504

LMAO what they come up with 

[El duderino_]

not living @ a top 10 country 

[El duderino_]

price still the same looks like NOBODY was hearing my BULLhornblow.......



so just gonna try again .

serve me a weekendpump ...... mmmm saturday GF on the flight and a friend ask me to join for dinner ,there are worst things to do on a saturday
hopefully the liver can take another round

good its with a fellow coiner  (don't worry no pics this evening) however last evening i saw a tweet of a post .... friday,PROOF OF STEAK and a picture of the most delicious steak ever thought it was a funny one

hearing so many telling us that we go down and shit .... that its really looking like the reversal is coming when all expert en TA  says down it could probably go UP ......

[vapourminer]

i take it exactly as it looks, once your initial investment pays out in the tangible assets (money, physical items of worth, knowledge, whatever) its all gravy. i would think (hope) most people in this thread are in this category, ie playing with "house money." at this point even if my stack goes to zero the minute i type this i still made out.

now, one can always argue about lost profit opportunity from this point on, buts thats another animal to me.

Probably we think differently about this matter.
[...]
Therefore, I always thought that I needed a cushion, and therefore, I always considered that I had to monitor my system and approach to investing, to live within my means and to keep a certain aspect of my investment portfolio profitable. 

Part of my point in my above response is to suggest that in my own view and opinion, it is NOT enough for me to merely assert that "I got my principle back and I am 'in profits' " and I continually want to know more about my performance than those kinds of mere simplicities.  I don't necessarily expect others to carry out the same as me, but I still will question if anyone who seems to be asserting that it is enough data for them to conclude that they are "in profits" and they don't want to engage in further self-improvement. 

I am NOT referring to standards that are imposed on anyone from the outside but merely about standards that are imposed on oneself in his/her own aspirations and monitoring of his/her own progress.  I actually tend to resent when standards are imposed on me from someone else or someone suggest that I need to do x, y or z, but it does not seem unreasonable in my thinking to attempt to impose standards upon yourself and to attempt to monitor whether I am reaching my standards.. and that is part of the purpose of continued analysis rather than merely throwing up ones hands and asserting "I am in profits because I got my principle back."

im probably misunderstanding, but i read that more or less as "how is btc profit compared to my other investment goals that have the same amount of effort/capitol as far as my personal goals are concerned."

i do agree that if you have only broke even well thats better than losing but if the same amount invested in something else you knew of at the time would of done better then its less profitable than you could of done. so basically, a fail. but we can only be so knowledgeable about such things. we learn as we go.

so my investment in btc has fared unbelievably well compared to any other investments i have done. im so far past "made my initial money back" its stupid. now, i could of done better in the past (like buying early apple, microsoft, google etc stock) but the past is the past and hindsight can only serve as a lesson to learn. of my current investments, btc is king. even if it goes to zero today, as i have locked in so much profit.

so basically at this point im diversifying even at the cost of lower (but safer) returns but i am ok with that, im a belt and suspenders kind of guy. so i suppose one could say im leaving potential gains on the table but i realize that. when you are long term contingency planning, and take worse case scenarios into account, you know you have to throw money/time into things that may not have much, if any, returns. even to the point that that money/time is purely wasted if whats its guarding against never happens. but thats just like paying an insurance premium to me. i sure would feel stupid with all my eggs in one basket if that basket breaks.

so, at this point im more into making sure my wife and i have a secure future even if things go to crap than more profit. once i hit a certain level, my priorities shift. i am goal oriented, and once that goal is attained i turn to the next one. one can always go back and fortify any particular goal or position as needed later.

[savetherainforest]

Jew servant/grade-Z actor Obama gave a speech lying for an entire hour straight then proceeded to complain about "Nazis" and the fact nobody trusts the Jewish media.  The vampiric Yids are a paper tiger that's powerless without media monopolies and debt based monetary scams to prop them up.  Remove those tools and the light causes vampires discomfort:

R0ach... ... both ideologies are wrong! Even if I understand the hive mind that one person can drive to the system is much more efficient. But a hive mind society is mostly always doomed to fail and some kind of counter measures need to be made even if it wasn't a "hive mind society". As for now, when thinking of concepts, for us, for the future... the best outcome would be if we have equal chances for mostly everything (except single handed ruling the whole species) if a machine / computer program would manage everything on Earth.  ... or some kind of Syfy feudalism with walls, gates and bridges.

[d_eddie]

No one is poking her with any stick, it seems.
A sideways weekend for a change?
Wait and see.

[El duderino_]

https://i.imgur.com/9fK2712m.png
not living @ a top 10 country 

I live in the USA, and legally concealed-carry a firearm.

I create safe-spaces wherever I go.

Haha lol i only have firearms @the homeplace ....

[JayJuanGee]

Unpleasant reality)

maybe your reality . certainly not mine

There is like a hope, hope, hope...

Some folks are feeling hope that they can buy back lower and not happy about buying at current prices, feel like they did not buy enough at $5,774-ish and hoping for lower.. hoping, hoping, hoping.

[vapourminer]

hard to tell. back when i started and btc was so cheap i didnt really pay attention. i got in it for the experimental aspect more than any profit. all i know is, aside from the first few years, every year i have less btc, but the real world value of that lessor amount of coins is more. usually much more.

as a miner you can look at it as dollar cost averaging, more or less. like i "buy" coin every week, non stop as long as i mine. then sell as needed.

ive mainly used btc as a kind of a "level up" thing. as in i mainly used them to "upgrade" stuff like vacations, toys, gifts etc to a higher level than i would of without btc. occasionally i would lock a chunk of profit up and put it into efts or other non crypto assets that (hopefully) earn returns in a more conventional, less risky way but of course with much less potential profit.

So it seems to appear that you are regularly taking profits in fiat and consumable goods, and you are not stacking aside bitcoin in a kind of fundamental view that bitcoin could potentially have more value some day. 

I understand that you have been in bitcoin longer than me, but largely I have considered bitcoin as something to attempt to stack up, so if I spend BTC, then I attempt to replace the ones that I spent.  I have been looser with myself regarding this in recent times, because I have established some ways to monitory my fiat versus BTC level, and created my own reasoned considerations regarding how many BTC that I want to maintain at certain price points, and if I have at least enough BTC to continue to reach that stacking BTC goal, then I don't mind shaving off a bit extra fiat for consumable goods.

im guessing you are younger than i. im on the wrong side of fifty. at my age i take less risk as im too old to start over. if i were younger i certainly would be increasing my stack as finances allow. i hope to get back to that too once certain new goals are met. but as of right now, other priorities are more important.

not depleting your stack and especially increasing your stack is always a good thing. for instance i have recently taken advantage of btcs currently lower price to replace some that i sold ~100% higher earlier in the year. but im still down btc from last year. i see btc as a tool. a new, experimental tool to manage value. and its still experimental really. there is still the risk it will fail. or, through personal error, my wallets could get compromised and coins stolen. so im using part of my stack to diversify into different non crypto holding in case it all goes south.

maybe because i got into it fairly early, i still see it as a tool to be used, not as a "get rich" thing. although i hope we all do. but currently im using it now to secure our (wife and i) future with as little risk as possible.
 
so on average for the last few years i have generally spent more btc than i replace. at this stage in my life  i have changed some priorities and used btc profit to try and ensure a more than comfortable retirement (if all goes even close to well). we were at the point that retirement should go well for us anyway but its time to revisit that position and nail down a few potential lose ends. once im happy with that i will go back to accumulation. at least i hope to.

 

[El duderino_]

^
Is like perfectlytaking care of your business ..... and When oppertunity is there than take as much as you can of iT .... 

[El duderino_]

Unpleasant reality)

maybe your reality . certainly not mine

There is like a hope, hope, hope...

Some folks are feeling hope that they can buy back lower and not happy about buying at current prices, feel like they did not buy enough at $5,774-ish and hoping for lower.. hoping, hoping, hoping.

Let us hope that they that are to greedy.... and sitting on the side-lines Will be sitting there forever , watching the Rockets and traint but don’t be sitting on them

[Biodom]

so im using part of my stack to diversify into different non crypto holding in case it all goes south.

maybe because i got into it fairly early, i still see it as a tool to be used, not as a "get rich" thing. although i hope we all do. but currently im using it now to secure our (wife and i) future with as little risk as possible.
 
so on average for the last few years i have generally spent more btc than i replace. at this stage in my life  i have changed some priorities and used btc profit to try and ensure a more than comfortable retirement (if all goes even close to well). we were at the point that retirement should go well for us anyway but its time to revisit that position and nail down a few potential lose ends. once im happy with that i will go back to accumulation. at least i hope to.

 

What about a situation if/when fiat goes 'south'. All calculations would be out of the window, then.
IMHO, we are within 5 years of , perhaps, a low double digit inflation episode.
What then?