Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

On an extremely volatile asset, assuming the price returns to the price at which you bought it, there is a trading strategy that makes a profit, as opposed to buying and holding (which would not profit in our example).
Here's a simple explanation https://blog.enigma.co/is-there-a-free-lunch-in-the-crypto-markets-c4aa331443f1

Imagine you start with $1,000, $500 in stock and $500 in cash. Suppose the stock halves in price the first day. This gives you a $750 portfolio with $250 in stock and $500 in cash. This is now lopsided in favor of cash. You rebalance by withdrawing $125 from the cash account to buy stock. This leaves you with a newly balanced mix of $375 in stock and $375 in cash.
Now repeat. The next day, let’s say the stock doubles in price. The $375 in stock jumps to $750. With the $375 in the cash account, you have $1,125…
… After a dramatic plunge, the stock’s price is back to where it began. A buy-and-hold investor would have no profit at all. Shannon’s investor has made $125.

If you do a little math, you'll find that transaction fees will kill this trading strategy.   If you pay transaction fees on the order of 0.2% (like crypto exchange fees), then balancing small moves like 5 or 10 percent will actually lose you money.  The asset has to be very volatile, and it's only worth rebalancing after big moves such as in the example.
Also, you're going to lose money in a bear market, unless you have the resources to hang on for years until the asset's price returns to where you bought it (if it ever does).

1) There are exchanges that charge zero for makers.
2) Bitcoin _is_ very volatile.
3) On a long enough time scale, there has never been a Bitcoin bear market. We'll hit one some day. Unlikely we have as of yet.

[Last of the V8s]

Hairy - looks like you'll get that no confidence vote you were schooling me on, but

BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg said that while the motion - if successful - could not directly cause the collapse of the government, "it would be another embarrassment for the PM if Labour ends up winning the day".

i've nfa

[cAPSLOCK]

So how many hours or days until it go down again ?

Well the current mid term trend *IS* down.  I don't really think it's stopped yet.  When will it.  That is the question.


And the current long term trend has only ever been up.

[bitserve]

So how many hours or days until it go down again ?

Well the current mid term trend *IS* down.  I don't really think it's stopped yet.  When will it.  That is the question.


And the current long term trend has only ever been up.

Unless we go under $150... That would mark a lower low and the uptrend would be definitely broken.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Hairy - looks like you'll get that no confidence vote you were schooling me on, but

BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg said that while the motion - if successful - could not directly cause the collapse of the government, "it would be another embarrassment for the PM if Labour ends up winning the day".

i've nfa

Labour can fuck off. Corbyn is the biggest cuckold the world has ever seen. I’d consider emigrating if he ever takes charge of the country. We’d be open to any kind of non working, non tax paying immigrants, we’d be helping the pooe & all sorts

[maser82]

https://bitcointicker.co/stamp/btc/usd/3hr/

[marcus_of_augustus]

If we compare it with a Smartphone it was invented in 1992, the first good Smartphone came on the market in 2005, with a number of users of 2%, 7 years later 54%, 11 years later 81%, today no one doubts that a Smartphone be a very useful gadget, Bitcoin will not take so long.

They didn't require you to take a financial risk after having a deep ponder over the nature of money itself.

That's a stretch for most of the world's population.

Correct. Luckily though 'most' of the world's population doesn't have any money, relatively speaking. In fact, less than 0.1% of humanity controls the vast majority of the wealth. For these people, pondering the nature of money and taking financial risks is what they are best at ...

bitcoin adoption has never been about numbers of souls converted but numbers of dollars, euros, yen, francs, pounds converted.

[HairyMaclairy]

Hairy - looks like you'll get that no confidence vote you were schooling me on, but

BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg said that while the motion - if successful - could not directly cause the collapse of the government, "it would be another embarrassment for the PM if Labour ends up winning the day".

i've nfa

Nah that’s not a no confidence motion it’s a name calling motion.  Chickenshit. Labour doesn’t have the numbers yet.

[jbreher]

How ironic would it be to withdraw a million plus dollars from bitcoin and to then still end up as a wage slave?

Yeah... unh... I dunno. 'Round these parts, $1M in savings is kinda wage slave money. What with the widest accepted annual drawdown on the order of 4%, that be like $40K annual before taxes.

[JayJuanGee]

Is JayJuanGee or Micgoossens considered dumbest money in the thread?  There was also that one guy who thought he was "buying the dip" at $15k, but I don't remember his name and don't feel like scrolling back.

Well, there is this one guy named roach, who sold his whole stash of BTC in the sub $600 price arena, and he bought gold and silver.  Thereafter, he has been lecturing how bitcoin is and was not a good investment.

Lot's off opportunity costs have been lost upon this roach fella, and even worse case scenario, at today's prices, he would still be up more than 5x if he had just hung onto his bitcoin.

Probably roach would be considered pretty close to the dumbest money who is actively participating in this particular thread.

I cannot really speak for Micteam because I am not sure if his back patting story really plays out because in some sense he is suggesting that he gets his BTC through gambling, which seems way too good to be true.

However, my own story is that I started buying at $1,200 in late 2013 and bought down to about $200 in late 2014 and throughout 2015, and had an average of about $500 per BTC before my phone got force ported and some other hacks that caused losses in my BTC in early 2017 and raised my BTC price average to around $750-ish.  I am not sure exactly my BTC average at the moment, but it is likely in around the $750-ish arena.

Surely I have made a few mistakes along the way in my BTC investment, strategies and practices (and even though I know that you are a trolling bafoon on this particular naming names point), yet I am not sure why I would be considered within any kind of close approximation of "dumb money" when I have an incrementalism system of selling BTC on the way up and buying BTC on the way down that seems to be quite profitable - even if only in a kind of insurance creation sense - even at today's prices and even with some mistakes that I have made along the way that have increased some of my costs. 

By the way, even though I type a lot, I don't reveal all of my finances and all of my strategies, even though I give broad general ideas about what I do as a kind of brainstorming exercise rather than any kind of attempt to induce anyone to emulate my practices.  Ultimately, I welcome guys and gal, here to engage with me about my various disclosures of strategies, and sometimes, I can be critical about the stated strategies of others, but to get back to the initial point, Roach, your purported strategy to sell BTC in the sub $600 range, not to buy back BTC, to invest in PMs and to participate in this thread that is about BTC price dynamics with your frequently off-topic nonsense seems quite high in level of dumbness of person and dumness of money.

[JayJuanGee]

2% up. Almost 3400
Fasten your seat belts guys.

If we get through 3500 our Target is about 5k

To me, it seems that there are several resistance points getting back to $5k, so $5k is not likely to be a cake walk, even though I certainly would like some bears to be rekt in the short-term.

[jojo69]

Correct. Luckily though 'most' of the world's population doesn't have any money, relatively speaking. ...

you, sir, have an odd definition of "luck"

[LFC_Bitcoin]

2% up. Almost 3400
Fasten your seat belts guys.

If we get through 3500 our Target is about 5k

I hope so, that’d feel & look a lot better. I’d be happy to go sideways at about 5k for 18 or so months. Lots of time for more accumulation but not too low that you worry we’re going to go to something ridiculous like 1k.

[julian071]

I think the final red dildo of doom is still just around the corner.

_{After which we will go up again. A lot.}

[Biodom]

Darned it.
I was hoping that the prolonged downturn would 'kill' stuff like eos, forks, etc. for good.

Tech advances usually bring only a few old players again for the ride in new bulls:
examples: AAPL, MSFT, who survived many cycles (PC/MAC, early Internet, late Internet/smartphone).
AMZN and EBAY are the survivors of the first internet bull that strived in the second one.

BTC: survived two boom-bust cycles already and is in tail end of the third, hopefully, ready to go into the fourth.
So, this is candidate #1.
However, who would be new dominants (like FB, GOOG)?
Maybe none?

Any candidates?
If there will be, then right now or soon would be the most profitable moment to invest.

I don't really like EOS, and hope it would not become one.
What about tezos, polkadot, blockstack and TON (telegram token)? Will chinese gov-sponsor NEO and/or TRX?

I am not going to sell any btc for those, but i can see myself possibly spending fiat on some of the aforementioned.

[Searing]

Correct. Luckily though 'most' of the world's population doesn't have any money, relatively speaking. ...

you, sir, have an odd definition of "luck"

Well, sold some Obelisk Miners and etc, etc for about 4 BTC...thus my panic sell of 13 BTC (panic' like a 9-year-old girl...includining screaming like one)

that was at the $3,965.20 price more or less. Thus 'lucky' and now down to a 9 BTC hoard loss. (The horror!) but a guy has to eat. (retired early)

never know what the f*ck is gonna happen in the BTC and cryptoverse!

[JayJuanGee]

"major news"

Care to elaborate or trolling?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg48726375#msg48726375

should I have added the rolleyes?

You could have tried typing "major newses" and even shown the reference as "alevlaslo" which would have had an eye rolling effect built into it.

 

[gentlemand]

I wonder if days like this drive r0ach to drink.

No.

It drives it to sit on its (tungsten but it doesn't know that) golden dildo and rotate at up to 75 rpm while crying its eyes out.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I wonder if days like this drive r0ach to drink.

Sewage? In the spirit of Jenkem.

[cAPSLOCK]

I wonder if days like this drive r0ach to drink.