A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.
Yes. The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.
So far so good:
Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable. You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess. Do you find that valuable in how you live your life? I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.
What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG?
Holy fuck. Are you trolling me, Raja? I largely already responded to that issue, and a lot of things change with each leg of our journey. I am certainly no soothsayer, but merely because something happens, like you predict does not suggest that you are anything but lucky when it happens, especially if it remains a kind of 50/50 event or even 70/30... or something like that.
I largely outlined my current thinking
in my post two posts above this one, which describes some thinking that we are going up before we go down... so one seemingly decent scenario would be to go to the $6k arena first and then have a 30% plus correction, which would bring us to $4,340 (that is if we presume something like $6,200 x 70%), but then there could be a further spike down, or the BTC price might not make it to $6,200 before experiencing a 30% plus correction... So in such a scenario, bringing BTC prices down to $4,340 could cause additional downwards spiking, and we have seen that many times in bitcoinlandia...
And even a scenario of a $5,500 local top in this particular cycle and then a 30% plus correction would bring BTC prices below $3,900.... in the $3,850 arena... which are not unreasonable price wave scenarios...
What are the odds of not going below $3,900 ever again... maybe we are getting close to the 50/50 arena.. perhaps?
50% would still seem charitable based on current BTC price dynamics, in my thinking... but again, I am never claiming to be any kind of soothsayer, that is for sure. I just assign what I believe to be conservative probabilities to various events, invest into bitcoin, accumulate bitcoin, prepare for worser scenarios, and then profit the fuck out of my BTC portfolio tending to outperform what I believe to be my largely conservative expectations... life is good.
NO matter what we should be preparing for both up and down, if you don't want to end up being disappointed, even if your "never below $3,900 again" dart-throwing sorcery-wannabe pronouncement ends up coming true.
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