Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

The number of short positions as well as the volume has increased in the last days. Their thinking is that whatever caused the short squeeze the other day, it won't repeat now. Their only hope is the wall at Bitstamp. It may be put by a shorter or not. It doesn't matter. Bitstamp has a lot more volume recently, so it can be eaten in minutes. This will cause another short squeeze even more painful than the previous! Especially, since there is not a historically recognized resistance line until 5.8-6K(which also is dubious if it can be a resistance at all). I think the next solid resistance is somewhere about 7K$.

[ivomm]

You know, I often wonder why 95% of exchange trades are like 0.05 or 0.001BTC. The answer is - there are thousands of n00bs (probably can't even calculate percentages and addicted to drugs) who believe that by trading such pathetic amounts, they will become millionaires. I got flash news for you - Not gonna happen! If you are lucky, you may get 10% in a year, so congrats with your 0.0001BTC profit. Go buy an island with that.

nah

it's bots

Even if they are bots, the sums of the simultaneous trades is way below 0.1BTC, which means their owners are really poor. The volume is made by a 5% of trades which are above 1BTC.

[cryptjh]

According to Peter Brandt @PeterLBrandt, a well know trader with 265k followers on twitter, Bitcoins are about to be ready for a new parabolic phase.

Either from Dec '18 low or from retest of same (circa analog dbl bottom in 2015) it would not surprise me if $BTC enters a new parabolic phase. $btcusd

https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1114150288007421952

[jojo69]

Work is a lot less stressful when you know you don't need it to pay for the next months (or years) bills and fully own the house you are living in.

word!

[jojo69]

... I accidentally deleted my whole response...

there is a god

[Toxic2040]

word!

cookie?

[gentlemand]

Totally agree, going to see tons of people dumping their coins around $10k+ in fear of another crash down.

They said the same about the return to $1000. Had you done that you would've been sad.

It's just the same as back then in that if you're still here by now you're not going to get rid when the first proper green shoots arrive. If you arrived after the bottom why get rid when it's just warming up? All the same I reckon 10 grand will be a bigger barrier than 20.

[jojo69]

[ssmc2]

https://hackernoon.com/rick-and-morty-and-the-meaning-of-life-6640df17e263
Good Sunday reading

[Toxic2040]

temporal analysis of a cookie monster

#dyor

[JayJuanGee]

It sure feels like we're gaining ground at settling over $5,000 for the longterm.

For me it feels like we are going to some big changes in the market either huge bump or dump on the upcoming days.

The "up"coming days are critical.^tm

They always are aren't they? Honestly I feel a small bump to 5,300 or a bit higher and a settle down to 5050 ish or low 5100

I think that it is too early for $5k to hold, even if we gt a pump into the $6,200 to $6,500 arena, I am still thinking that we get around a 30% or more correction.. and then at that point we se how long it takes to rebound. 

If we get a more wimpy pump, like you are suggesting, then our correction might be more whimpy too.. but I cannot foresee $5k holding under any realistic scenario in the short term.

Of course, there are scenarios, like you suggest, in which $5k never gets breached again.. .but I am thinking that those kinds of scenarios are both less likely but also would become more realistic only if BTC could breach $6,500 and go at least to $7,140 or greater... which seems less likely but surely anything is possible in bitcoin... I just am averted from counting on in any kind of meaningful way (psychologically or financially) in the playing out of scenarios that are in the less likely arena.

.... and, yes,  "the next XXXXX time frame 'is critical' blah blah blah.." remains a common understanding way to to bring attention a point with a bit of flare & fun.   

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMaximal2/status/1114910975155634181

 

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin (BTC) Likely To Experience Maximum Pain Before QE4

Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies are still highly speculative assets. It would be unreasonable to compare Bitcoin (BTC) to digital gold at this point when it has a market cap of less than $100 billion and has been seen massive pumps and dumps. The weekly chart for BTC/USD shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily overbought and is due for a sharp decline if it closes the week below the 50 week exponential moving average. Bitcoin (BTC) also has a strong correlation with the S&P (500) as we have noted many a time in some of our analyses. The last time the S&P 500 (SPX) started to decline was in September, 2018. If we look at the BTC/USD chart around that time, it was also preparing for a decline. When the S&P 500 (SPX) crashed after that, so did BTC/USD until the price declined to its 200 Week EMA and closed above it.

https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2019/04/bitcoin-likely-to-experience-maximum-pain-before-qe4

Until the end of the year, up and down.
Some see it this way.

I understand that we should account for market sentiment but that article should be pointed out for what it is.. either highly uninformed or more likely attempting to  cause a market sentiment of hesitation to buy bitcoin or to get HODLers to sell or all of their stash... seeming less and less likely without some real major negative thing happening... and I am nearly to convert from bear to bull.. except I just am waiting to see how hard our next correction comes which might really determine if the $3,122 bottom is unequivocally in.

[JayJuanGee]

It sure feels like we're gaining ground at settling over $5,000 for the longterm.

Bitcoin is not ready to say goodbye to sub 5000. We will most likely even see sub 4000 in the summer. After that $5000+ Bitcoin will be sure things.

Wishful thinking. Your bags are clearly not full yet so you'd like to see sub $5k prices. Not gonna happen. Feels very much the same as trolls predicting $1700-2500 bottom few months (weeks?) ago. Where are they now?  

I think that odds are quite against you in a bet that there will be no more sub-$5k... even though I am not sure how it is going to play out... and of course, my bags are way the fuck stacked towards up rather than down, so I don't give too many shits if you were to happen to get lucky that seemingly unlikely bet.

Of course, you have greater odds with a sub $4k bet or a "bottom is in" bet, but even those two bets are far from certain odds.. even if they would be a bit better odds than any kind of proclamation that we will never see sub $5k again..

[VB1001]

Bitcoin (BTC) Likely To Experience Maximum Pain Before QE4

Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies are still highly speculative assets. It would be unreasonable to compare Bitcoin (BTC) to digital gold at this point when it has a market cap of less than $100 billion and has been seen massive pumps and dumps. The weekly chart for BTC/USD shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily overbought and is due for a sharp decline if it closes the week below the 50 week exponential moving average. Bitcoin (BTC) also has a strong correlation with the S&P (500) as we have noted many a time in some of our analyses. The last time the S&P 500 (SPX) started to decline was in September, 2018. If we look at the BTC/USD chart around that time, it was also preparing for a decline. When the S&P 500 (SPX) crashed after that, so did BTC/USD until the price declined to its 200 Week EMA and closed above it.

https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2019/04/bitcoin-likely-to-experience-maximum-pain-before-qe4

Until the end of the year, up and down.
Some see it this way.

I understand that we should account for market sentiment but that article should be pointed out for what it is.. either highly uninformed or more likely attempting to  cause a market sentiment of hesitation to buy bitcoin or to get HODLers to sell or all of their stash... seeming less and less likely without some real major negative thing happening... and I am nearly to convert from bear to bull.. except I just am waiting to see how hard our next correction comes which might really determine if the $3,122 bottom is unequivocally in.

I would like to answer yes or no, but until we reach +/-6000 and keep it, we will not be out of danger.

I like to publish the contrary opinions (FUD) you have to know what they think.

[jojo69]

lol, awesome

pic snipped from earlier link

[rdbase]

lol, awesome

pic snipped from earlier link

I knew craig wright is a clown but this is ridiculous.

[Toxic2040]

I will be honest..we have a tough road out in front of us. Bears want more cheap coins despite ample opportunity to accumulate. I think it could go either way at this point with the back of my mind saying odds favor a retrace beginning after next week slightly more than a continuation of exponential gains. Its literally a coin flip however with strong market sentiment firmly entrenched at the Bullish camp.

There are 3 more likely outcomes in my opinion.

A)  Price continues to climb after breaking resistance at $5.5k  Moving upwards to challenge the cloud and $7k+
B)  Price meets resistance at $5k to $5.5k and turns sideways into accumulation mode again, attacking the cloud from the $4ks
C)  Price meets resistance and collapses from Bull trap and plummets back under $4k

We would need a huge last quarter on the day to take us up to levels needed for a TKx on the weekly chart so odds of that are diminishing rapidly. I guess we get another week or so of "the next 24 hours are critical" or so before we find out where the market wants to be. Stay tuned and buy the dips is my advice.

#dyor
D


W

#stronghands'19

[Searing]

It sure feels like we're gaining ground at settling over $5,000 for the longterm.

For me it feels like we are going to some big changes in the market either huge bump or dump on the upcoming days.

The "up"coming days are critical.^tm

They always are aren't they? Honestly I feel a small bump to 5,300 or a bit higher and a settle down to 5050 ish or low 5100

I think that it is too early for $5k to hold, even if we gt a pump into the $6,200 to $6,500 arena, I am still thinking that we get around a 30% or more correction.. and then at that point we se how long it takes to rebound.  

If we get a more wimpy pump, like you are suggesting, then our correction might be more whimpy too.. but I cannot foresee $5k holding under any realistic scenario in the short term.

Of course, there are scenarios, like you suggest, in which $5k never gets breached again.. .but I am thinking that those kinds of scenarios are both less likely but also would become more realistic only if BTC could breach $6,500 and go at least to $7,140 or greater... which seems less likely but surely anything is possible in bitcoin... I just am averted from counting on in any kind of meaningful way (psychologically or financially) in the playing out of scenarios that are in the less likely arena.

.... and, yes,  "the next XXXXX time frame 'is critical' blah blah blah.." remains a common understanding way to to bring attention a point with a bit of flare & fun.    

I agree mainly due to mt. gox giving out btc in the next few weeks..however, that assumes that the persons that be 'dump' BTC...if not and they fell for FOMO...I could be wrong

depends on just before the mt. gox hits what some major whales speculate on and dump first or not I guess

BTC is now 5x what it was Jan 2017...so....suck it up I guess on the future

brad

[wachtwoord]

Mt Gox giving out coins in the next few weeks? What gave you that idea?