Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

Introducing Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) and Balanced Price. New experimental models using the early metric of Bitcoin Days Destroy. Check @kenoshaking's handle very shortly for Balanced Price, I'll dig into CVDD here.


via Imgflip Meme Generator


https://woobull.com/experiments-on-cumulative-destruction/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Seems intresting.... But gotta hit the HODLtomb, leave it here so i can find it easily tomorrow “or Maybe Some of you gonna give it short”

Woobull always provide good analysis, with a fundamental “insight”. I think plotting AT stuff on those has more value than doing the same on price, where white noise and manipulation can easily trigger unwanted movements.
Studying those to put them into my next monthly analysis.

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[bakasabo]

Found the reason why we had red market yesterday

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Internet speeds are irrelevant, as they increase rapidly as data usage increases. The capacity is not even remotely near its maximum (last I checked 100~1000 GBit for consumers were possible but simply not sensible right now), even if you exclude all the satellites that are being launched over the coming years.

Data plans irrelevant as most countries don't have "data plans" for home use and offer unlimited bandwidth instead.

Storage is irrelevant as well. Even 4 TB SSDs only cost a few hundred bucks these days. By the time storage became an issue we'll have 50-100 TB hard drives for a couple hundred dollars.

RAM seems the only sensible bottleneck if your numbers are accurate. $6 per GB currently and I haven't seen RAM size increase as much as other hardware. But that seems to be mostly because of a lack of utility rather than technical implausibility.

I also fail to see how your highway analogy is supposed to hold. Highways are inherently limited by physical space. Hardware inherently works in a different way. If we had arbitrary amounts of space that we could build on economically we'd have no problem with building even a personal lane for every single human in the world. And with hardware we actually do. It takes sometime to develop and scale, but so far there's no end in sight to how much data we can get from any one point on earth to any other.


I have no idea about the implications on mining and centralization though.


As far as a "real game changer" is concerned. That's already Bitcoin. It solves one of humanity's biggest issues. Banks fucking around and screwing the entire population. For a new "real game changer" to appear we would first require a new "real problem".
And Bitcoin hasn't even been around long enough to really get rid of the issues that come with banking, privatized profits, socialized losses, as well as the fiat toilet paper printing press.

It'll probably take a few decades until we can really identify new serious problems and have people give enough of a shit about them for some to try and someone to actually succeed in solving them as well as people actually jumping ship.

yes totally agree with you on your last point....

The highway analogy was not about space to build the highway, but rather it doesn't matter how many lanes are built, it will still eventually get to the same outcome as a 1 lane highway. You will still end up with traffic congestion, nothing has been solved. I was merely trying to associate with the fact bitcoin developers was not concerned with building more lanes, ie increase block size, but focusing on alternate transport methods or alternate transport habits. ie layer 2 scaling.

There also comes to a point where you may never be able to run full node from scratch. Based on a 30sec a 1MB validation time and i have read somewhere that it may be quadratically longer the bigger the block. will try and find the whitepaper on that one, but for arguments sake i used a linear model. You will be validating previous blocks and never catching up.

Just to confirm the 30sec theory, i'd shutdown my Bitcoin Node, was 8 blocks behind, fired it back up and it took about 5mins to catch up 10 blocks, two blocks was found while validating/catching up.

Maybe in developed countries the internet is more reliable, but what about us third world internet countries, like here in Australia! Struggling to even get 100Mbit business internet grade, let alone consumer grade. Typical speeds are more like 10mbit.

BTW 100-1000Gbit Internet available right now? who the fuck is offering that? i want one right now!

Again, your highway analogy only works with restrictive limitations. More highways irl only converge towards congestion because we can't build them indefinitely in an economic manner. If we kept building highways indefinitely, then at some point there would be more lanes than humans and thus no congestion whatsoever, even long before each person gets their own lane.
And again, our bandwidth is not even remotely utilized to its full capacity even when ignoring future changes. Congestion is a non-issue, at least with the issues that you've raised so far. As soon as it became one our bandwidth and data plans would adapt and that's that.

I'm saying 100-1000Gbit are easily possible, probably more by now since I've read about this quite a while ago. There's just no reason to offer those bandwidths when the most a consumer does is stream multiple 4k videos at the same time. See for example this article from 2007: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/07/12/swedish_woman_has_fastest_internet_connection/

The argument with undeveloped countries (in terms of internet speed) doesn't hold if you argue for decentralization, unless you want the majority of "normal" people to run a node. There are enough people who can easily afford to run nodes and they don't. This won't change even if it's free simply because there's no immediate incentive for anyone to do so. If people acted in the ways necessary for that to work none of us would be using fiat money.


Edit: Not trying to say that there is no problem with big blocks. I don't know enough about the protocol to pass judgement on that front. But the bandwidth and storage issues seem heavily overblown to me and suffering from the same type of linear mindset that keeps people out of Bitcoin and investing in general.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

So:

I haven't seen a single decent response to jbreher so far, so there's some merit to this claim.

Also, the market cap argument some people brought up doesn't follow. Popularity does not imply superiority by technical standards.

Now you have. Bookmark it.

Not sure if you're just being confrontational for the sake of it. But my point remains unchanged.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I’m 2.1BTC away from a round number that I set myself as my total HODL stash. I might be able to reach it if we stay in this range until maybe Xmas.

If not then whatever, I have enough. Just a bit of OCD wanting to reach a certain figure.

I'm sig campaigning my way towards the magic 21,000 BTC figure. See you in 12,500 AD or so.

With some trading this would've actually been feasible at some point in time. Pretty crazy to think about.

[HairyMaclairy]

So:

I haven't seen a single decent response to jbreher so far, so there's some merit to this claim.

Also, the market cap argument some people brought up doesn't follow. Popularity does not imply superiority by technical standards.

Now you have. Bookmark it.

Not sure if you're just being confrontational for the sake of it. But my point remains unchanged.

It’s Wednesday my man.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I am only 4.5BTC away from 10btc. It'll take a while if bitcoin keeps rising like this. 5 was my first target and I accomplished it a few weeks ago. 10 is next. 21 is after that. I'll probably cash out to lambo (by lambo i mean whatever i like) before I reach 21 but who knows.

Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.

What's the deal with 21? Confirminati illumed?

It’s Wednesday my man.

The third day in a seven day week? 21?

[JayJuanGee]

I am only 4.5BTC away from 10btc. It'll take a while if bitcoin keeps rising like this. 5 was my first target and I accomplished it a few weeks ago. 10 is next. 21 is after that. I'll probably cash out to lambo (by lambo i mean whatever i like) before I reach 21 but who knows.

Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.

What's the deal with 21? Confirminati illumed?

It’s Wednesday my man.

The third day in a seven day week? 21?

I find it quite surprising that you would not know the significance of 21.

21 = 1/1 million^th of a bitcoin.  

And, a BTC accumulation goal of some peeps.

[HairyMaclairy]

I am only 4.5BTC away from 10btc. It'll take a while if bitcoin keeps rising like this. 5 was my first target and I accomplished it a few weeks ago. 10 is next. 21 is after that. I'll probably cash out to lambo (by lambo i mean whatever i like) before I reach 21 but who knows.

Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.

What's the deal with 21? Confirminati illumed?

It’s Wednesday my man.

The third day in a seven day week? 21?

We don’t talk about big blocks or BCH on Wednesdays.  For reasons. Instead we post pictures of ladies rock climbing.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Trouble in the henhouse. A new way to multiply very large numbers together has been discovered

https://www.sciencealert.com/mathematicians-just-discovered-an-astonishing-new-way-to-multiply-numbers-together

As long as they can't unmultiply them (factor the product)...

Could potentially be used for data compression though, e.g. by just saving the factors and then computing the product on the go. Not sure how much, if anything, it would save though.

Thanks for the post, haven't heard about this in my usual circles yet.

It’s Wednesday my man.

The third day in a seven day week? 21?

We don’t talk about big blocks or BCH on Wednesdays.  For reasons. Instead we post pictures of ladies rock climbing.

Fair enough. Can't find any pictures of rocks climbing girls though so I'll pass with severe disappointment in Google. I thought the future was now, but I guess I was mistaken.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I find it quite surprising that you would not know the significance of 21.

21 = 1/1 million^th of a bitcoin.  

And, a BTC accumulation goal of some peeps.

A bit arbitrary so passed my attention, but I guess it makes sense.

[JSRAW]

We don’t talk about big blocks or BCH on Wednesdays.  For reasons. Instead we post pictures of ladies rock climbing.

When Twerk day for a pussy cat.

[VB1001]

^
The cat is being lifted by the tail, people are crazy.

[mOgliE]

I find it quite surprising that you would not know the significance of 21.

21 = 1/1 million^th of a bitcoin.  

And, a BTC accumulation goal of some peeps.

A bit arbitrary so passed my attention, but I guess it makes sense.

Completely arbitrary and doesn't make any sense.

Just by taking into account all the lost, burnt and destroyed BTC you can reduce this number by at least 20%

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1115730399479644160

Woo Analysis

Introducing Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) and Balanced Price.
New experimental models using the early metric of Bitcoin Days Destroy. Check @kenoshaking's handle very shortly for Balanced Price, I'll dig into CVDD here.

Experiments on Cumulative Destruction
David Puell, Willy Woo

https://woobull.com/experiments-on-cumulative-destruction/



The bottom could be inside, purple line of the graph.  

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I find it quite surprising that you would not know the significance of 21.

21 = 1/1 million^th of a bitcoin.  

And, a BTC accumulation goal of some peeps.

A bit arbitrary so passed my attention, but I guess it makes sense.

Completely arbitrary and doesn't make any sense.

Just by taking into account all the lost, burnt and destroyed BTC you can reduce this number by at least 20%

You can reduce the maximum of potentially circulating BTC, but not the maximum of potentially existing BTC.

[Elwar]

I'm setting up my own BTCPay server for payments from people buying seasteads.

It's actually not too difficult if you go the LunaNode route (An ISP has integrated all of the packages for you with an easy to use configuration page).

So that took me a few hours this morning (Originally I was setting everything up on my computer but decided, screw it...I'll take the easy route).

As a special tribute to the dollar, we're doing our Initial Seastead Offering (ISeaO) on April 15th.

Protest the income tax by putting your 1% downpayment on buying a seastead.

https://ocean.builders/april-15th-initial-seastead-offering/

[lightfoot]

Meantime it looks like we're snug in the 5200-5300 range. Not a bad improvement from the 2800-3000 range a few weeks ago.

Progress. But does it mean BC is worth more, or fiat is simply worth less?

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I'm setting up my own BTCPay server for payments from people buying seasteads.

It's actually not too difficult if you go the LunaNode route (An ISP has integrated all of the packages for you with an easy to use configuration page).

So that took me a few hours this morning (Originally I was setting everything up on my computer but decided, screw it...I'll take the easy route).

On the other side...accepting dollars is a pain in the ass. To do this we had to incorporate. This involved finding a country that won't tax us to death for not doing anything in their country. We had to meet in person and show proof to the lawyers. Pay them thousands of dollars (my LunaNode cost $20). Air fare, hotel, etc.

Now we will be setting up our Singapore bank account which will likely require another flight and hotels. Then the huge hassle of accepting credit cards or PayPal (for the earnest money downpayment) which we get to pay them for the convenience.

At some point, in the likely not too distant future, we will probably just say screw it...if you want a seastead you convert to bitcoins and join the sane people who use a sane money.

As a special tribute to the dollar, we're doing our Initial Seastead Offering (ISeaO) on April 15th.

Protest the income tax by putting your 1% downpayment on buying a seastead.

https://ocean.builders/april-15th-initial-seastead-offering/

Since you're already active in that area, would you mind answering a few questions regarding seasteading for me? The responses can be however brief since this won't be immediately relevant for quite a number of years to me, but I'd like to sketch out some future options regardless.


Is it plausible to create a small seasteading property on which you could have some sort of outdoor space, or at least indoor garden or small park?

Perhaps an inner courtyard type setup with or without a roof that may or may not be opened and closed?

Is it possible to get a per square meter cost estimate (excluding inventory)?

How do you go about acquiring "sea" (land/property) for something like this? Surely you can't just set up whatever arbitrarily?

Is this possible in areas where you don't have to worry about pirates or rely on guns? (I don't have a problem with guns, but I'd prefer it being an option as opposed to a necessity if that makes sense.)

Meantime it looks like we're snug in the 5200-5300 range. Not a bad improvement from the 2800-3000 range a few weeks ago.

Progress. But does it mean BC is worth more, or fiat is simply worth less?

Did you get lost somehow and originally come from another timeline? Please share details.

[El duderino_]

long time since i have read the name BAKKT