Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dakustaking76]

Im too lazy rn to post HM's fractal charts but Im sure you all remember the 2 pumps past 300 in spring and summer of 2015. What if we are going through the same kind of thing, but this time instead of 2 spaced out pumps its just one bigger pump right smack in the middle. In that case we would go back and revisit the 3000's one last time before the march to 100k starts for real for real later this year.

I think 4800-5500 would be more likely but just food for thought. Would like to be wrong and hit 100k next month but you guys gotta pamp it a lot harder for that to happen.

On mobile so apologies for the low resolution but chart for comparison here. From this height not a lot has changed in the past few days, although appreciate it feels different for you guys on the front lines and in the foxholes.  There are no atheists in foxholes.

One important technical difference between now and 2015 is that the 200 Weekly MA is curving upwards in 2019. It was flat at this time in 2015. 

So yes we are living in the future.

Something different is happening and the solution is not going to be found looking at past metrics. Perhaps good for broad strokes and a rough shape...no more.

About the only comparison I would accept between 2015 and 2019 is both will have a top and a bottom.

I respect you Hairy but you have to admit we are seeing a new pattern forming and I would say it has to due with broader adoption and a more savvy market.

Bro i love your charts (cheers)
What does your charts say!

[HairyMaclairy]

Something different is happening and the solution is not going to be found looking at past metrics. Perhaps good for broad strokes and a rough shape...no more.

About the only comparison I would accept between 2015 and 2019 is both will have a top and a bottom.

I respect you Hairy but you have to admit we are seeing a new pattern forming and I would say it has to due with broader adoption and a more savvy market.

All I am really interested in is buying multi-year lows and selling part of my stack on multi-year highs. So yes the top and the bottom are the important bits.  This is also tax effective in terms of not getting classified as a trader for tax purposes.  I am less fussed about the bits in between.  

Yes we are front running the 2015 fractal and yes it will be different this time. But I don’t think it will be different enough at a macro - multi year level to change anything that I do.  Also I don’t show all my cards in this thread as there is analysis that I hold back.  Everything I show here is honest and directly reflects my views, it just isn’t 100% of the data set because I need to maintain my edge.

History doesn’t repeat itself but it sure as hell rhymes

On that basis I would say we are in heated agreement

[fabiorem]

Toxic2040 is right.

Forget the overlay.

[Toxic2040]

All I am really interested in is buying multi-year lows and selling part of my stack on multi-year highs. So yes the top and the bottom are the important bits.  This is also tax effective in terms of not getting classified as a trader for tax purposes.  I am less fussed about the bits in between.  

Yes we are front running the 2015 fractal and yes it will be different this time. But I don’t think it will be different enough at a macro - multi year level to change anything that I do.  Also I don’t show all my cards in this thread as there is analysis that I hold back.  Everything I show here is honest and directly reflects my views, it just isn’t 100% of the data set because I need to maintain my edge.

History doesn’t repeat itself but it sure as hell rhymes

On that basis I would say we are in heated agreement

*gasp*

he is a bull hater

[HairyMaclairy]

Toxic2040 is right.

Forget the overlay.

Ok lads give us a road map for the next 3 years. Here is mine.  Give us something better to work from.  

[romani245]

I thought yesterday's dump was a major local top but bulls are showing some resilience. I guess this might just stay sideways for a couple days and keep pushing higher.

I'm still skeptical about these bubble projections though. I think the next year will look more like 2015-2016 than 2017. Too early....

[Toxic2040]

fine..more heated agreement.

W

[HairyMaclairy]

Fabulous. 

Are we married?

[jojo69]

is...is that a "new hats issued" column??

[WinslowIII]

I thought yesterday's dump was a major local top but bulls are showing some resilience. I guess this might just stay sideways for a couple days and keep pushing higher.

I'm still skeptical about these bubble projections though. I think the next year will look more like 2015-2016 than 2017. Too early....

I expected $9k end of year going by what happened in 2015, and we almost hit that in May. We are probably looking at a much more gradual incline over the next 2 years rather than relatively flat for a couple years then vertical like 2017. If that's the case, the top may not be as high but the following crash won't be nearly as severe. This is what needs to happen before mainstream gets in anyway, these monster rallies followed by monster dumps are a huge turnoff for most people.

[Last of the V8s]

I'd like a refund. I paid for a full half hour argument, and that was only five minutes.

[HairyMaclairy]

Fine.  I will make a half hearted attempt.

Toxic why do you close your box before December 2021?  Hard to tell on mobile but you are closing in October or November?

Does the centre represent a target?

[Toxic2040]

Fabulous. 

Are we married?

No...at least not without a pre-nup and a blood screening.

I'd like a refund. I paid for a full half hour argument, and that was only five minutes.

this is merely foreplay...abide


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..then I keep thinking..what if it does this?  Goes up to say $20k-$25k this year...lets all those baghodlers exit...signals bearishness mid to end of 2020...OG's panic sell like little girls...and then does an about face in 2021 and rockets upwards towards $80k-$100k before the next cycle?

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Monthly first looks



#stronghands'19

[HairyMaclairy]

Seems like a perfectly reasonable pattern.  We ought to bubble around the halvening and crash after.  

We are currently high, hot and fast heading toward the halvening.  What would really put the wind up the skirts would be a big crash just before the halvening.  Like a pre-fork crash.

Maybe that’s the scenario to aim for.  Bubble builds through 2019, then big crash in March or April 2020.  Slow recovery through second half of 2020 turning superexpoparabolic in late 2021.  

[cryptjh]

Another bullish signal.

BTC difficulty is an at all time high. Miners' margins have increased with the BTC price and it looks like they're reinvesting those increased margins in more hardware.

https://twitter.com/coinmetrics/status/1134486545107472385

[WinslowIII]

Seems like a perfectly reasonable pattern.  We ought to bubble around the halvening and crash after.  

We are currently high, hot and fast heading toward the halvening.  What would really put the wind up the skirts would be a big crash just before the halvening.  Like a pre-fork crash.

Maybe that’s the scenario to aim for.  Bubble builds through 2019, then big crash in March or April 2020.  Slow recovery through second half of 2020 turning superexpoparabolic in late 2021.  

Well, that would be true if bitcoin were a shitcoin. But you ignore the very real adoption curve that is happening and the very real effect less new coins has on this adoption curve.
The real effect of the halving comes well after the actual event.

[Toxic2040]

Seems like a perfectly reasonable pattern.  We ought to bubble around the halvening and crash after.  

We are currently high, hot and fast heading toward the halvening.  What would really put the wind up the skirts would be a big crash just before the halvening.  Like a pre-fork crash.

Maybe that’s the scenario to aim for.  Bubble builds through 2019, then big crash in March or April 2020.  Slow recovery through second half of 2020 turning superexpoparabolic in late 2021.  

I have some concern its coming even faster than that..what if we just keep going up until say Oct. or Nov.   Big crash there abouts aided by Tulip Trust FUD or some similar dick move. Deep dive until mid Spring of 2020 and then all hell breaking loose in a para-rex towards $100k+


Its not just Bitcoin going through this compression...its global. I feel it.

[HairyMaclairy]

Yes it’s starting to feel like 2004 - 2006.  Record profits everywhere.  But that can run for a long time.

But what is the trigger?  It won’t be sub prime lending this time.  What is the legacy market financial WMD?

[Toxic2040]

New MasterLuc comments.

telegram and tradingview
https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/48
https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/

+1 WOsMerit birr

Daily MA200. My forecast changed to bearish when we were under it. Now the opposite situation. Net breakdown confirmed by prominent volumes. Here you can also note the fact of breaking up the weekly week. Long-term prognosis: bullish. New heights worth waiting in 12-18 months.

[Toxic2040]

Yes it’s starting to feel like 2004 - 2006.  Record profits everywhere.  But that can run for a long time.

But what is the trigger?  It won’t be sub prime lending this time.  What is the legacy market financial WMD?

ABS and CDO's?  Derivatives of some sort as always.