Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

I remember 30 years ago...and I shall not forget.


#stronghands'19

[realr0ach]

Like if you see a hot female Nazi gold bug do you want to smash?

[nutildah]

I remember 30 years ago...and I shall not forget.


#stronghands'19

When I was in the Shanghai airport for a layover, the first thing I did was try to do a Google search for "Tiananmen Square." But, I couldn't connect to Google, so...


Everything Google- and Facebook-related was blocked. Also no Wikipedia.

I could access tor though. Didn't screw around too deeply for fear of being arrested for thought crimes.

[Toxic2040]

I remember 30 years ago...and I shall not forget.


#stronghands'19

When I was in the Shanghai airport for a layover, the first thing I did was try to do a Google search for "Tiananmen Square." But, I couldn't connect to Google, so...


Everything Google- and Facebook-related was blocked. Also no Wikipedia.

I could access tor though. Didn't screw around too deeply for fear of being arrested for thought crimes.

They are trying to erase it from memory. I dont think most people remember the Umbrella Movement let alone Tian'anmen Square.

[Lambie Slayer]

Like if you see a hot female Nazi gold bug do you want to smash?

Ok, just making sure, thanks for the answer.

[HairyMaclairy]

Yes it’s starting to feel like 2004 - 2006.  Record profits everywhere.  But that can run for a long time.

But what is the trigger?  It won’t be sub prime lending this time.  What is the legacy market financial WMD?

The answer is already clear from some charts.
Main example: DB
This alone makes the stock market recovery, especially financials, as fake as it can possibly be.
Combine DB chart with its known derivative exposure and the upcoming story is quite clear.

Lol.  Does DB really have a PE of 457 or am I reading the chart wrong?

Edit:  Double lol.  EPS $0.08.  Nope I am not reading the chart wrong.  

Ok, we have established that DB is a shitcoin.  What next?

[JayJuanGee]

New poll... finally something makes sense. (didn't vote bacon crap)

%20-40 is where I am right now. (north of 30)

I wish I had more but it is still better than most people i imagine.

btw that number constantly changes, it is %57 when btc hits $20k, and becomes %25 when btc is at $5k. :/

Probably makes sense to unload some when it is more than %80.

edit: aaand %80+ voters arrived. Looks like I am the nocoiner.

It is my tentative theory that most participants here who have accomplished a high percent of their networth in bitcoin have reached such high percentage status because of bitcoin's price appreciation, rather than such high percentage being from making initial contributions.

Take me, for example, I had an initial goal to achieve a status in which I invested about 10% of my quasi-investable value into bitcoin; however, once I established the 10% goal, in about late 2014, I continued to contribute most of my free cash to BTC on a kind of dollar cost averaging basis - and through 2015, since BTC prices stayed decently low (largely in the mid $200s), it seems that my allocation into BTC reached about 13% to 14%.. and yeah, I continued to invest in BTC and I continued to consider that my investment into BTC was moderate because it was merely my spare change, no more need for feelings of FOMO because I had reached my goal and had a decently reasonable stake in bitcoin.

But then BTC's prices began to go up, and like you said, the proportion became much higher than what I had initially intended.

yeah, many traditional (and smart investors) would advise that periodically, any prudent investor should redistribute back to the original authorized ratios, which would likely result in selling off a vast majority of the BTC profits - and thereafter largely taking away from profiting from additional upside BTC price performance through a kind of overconservatism.

Accordingly, I considered that whole redistribute periodically philosophy, and I decided that it was a bit stupid - because I had already established my other (non-bitcoin) investments, and I was good with those investments.. so why should I take from my bitcoin value and reinvest into various items that I already considered to have enough of those investments.

In the end, I believe that my creation of a system to incrementally sell some BTC on the way up compensates for my ongoing refusal to treat BTC as some kind of ordinary investment and to reallocate back to the original amounts.  I have no problem with that reallocation approach with my other traditional investments, which are largely index funds.

So yeah, mindrust, the overall value of the btc portion becomes outrageously imbalanced, and sure there could be some justification to pull out some value and to re-align such value with the remainder of my assets, to some degree... nonetheless the extent to which each of us is going to take extreme gambling measures is going to vary - and maybe some folks, who are not like me, in terms of already having a decently large non-bitcoin investment back, are going to want to establish some of their diversification through some traditional investment vehicles (and I am not talking about investing in shitcoins for the sake of diversifying).

[JayJuanGee]

This year looks way different from 2015, he could be right.

Pish posh

Let's face it, the market is way bigger and way smarter than in 2015. And we all know what the halving does to the price long term. Think about it.
Doesn't mean it won't continue going upwards after the halving, but $30-$40k next May makes sense to me.

I think that you are trying to disagree with the wrong person.... don't you know you are communicating with Hairy the mac "daddy"?

Anyhow, you are asserting the obvious.

Of course, 2019 is different from 2015 for all the reasons that you said and more... yet there is similarity too... current btc prices are already moving in a fractal that accounts for a lot of what you refer, which is more than a 10x stepped up fractal.   

Yeah, there could be a decent amount of frontrunning of BTC's price this time around, but there are also likely going to be decently large resistance points along the way that includes taking several runs at various price points, such as $9k or $10k and likely some other higher price  points too, such as $16k-ish.

[infofront]

This chart has held up pretty well, and is one of the better logarithmic regression charts I've seen:



Even though it was created in March, 2018 the lower boundary was prescient in providing support at the ~$3,150 bottom.

There's an interesting pattern here, or I could be reading too much into it.
It appears there may be a fractal pattern in the bubbles. We got 3 bubbles in 2010-11 of magnitudes 1,1,3. Then 2 bubbles in 2013 of magnitudes 2,3. Then 1 bubble of magnitude 2 in 2017.
What comes next? Triple bubbles again?

An alternative answer might be that it's just decreasing volatility. If you think so, the recent price action would like a word with you.

[realr0ach]

The answer is already clear from some charts.
Main example: DB
This alone makes the stock market recovery, especially financials, as fake as it can possibly be.
Combine DB chart with its known derivative exposure and the upcoming story is quite clear.

And this forum is filled with complete fools who think situations like that somehow benefit Bitcoin.  If DB, derivatives, and all the other shit goes bust, the world is obviously going back to metals as the base of the financial system. Trying to claim it will be Bitcoin instead is so asinine it defies belief.  Bitcoin currently functions as nothing more than a speculative gambling instrument, not currency, money, or anything else.  It's only able to attract fools to it because the majority of things on earth are in a bubble, so a few people toss money at the Bitcoin pump and dump instead.  

After a new Bretton Woods with gold being set to $10k and silver something like $500 or whatever, much of these other assets like real estate, shares, and everything else will be much lower priced and actually be viable to invest in again.  Bitcoin's competition for speculative money then goes up a thousand fold.  People will invest in land, businesses, and everything else instead of this imaginary, digital token garbage.

[HairyMaclairy]

If DB, derivatives, and all the other shit goes bust, the world is obviously going back to metals as the base of the financial system.

That's a fairly huge leap in logic.  Why would any Central Bank voluntarily remove its ability to print fiat?

[infofront]

^Agreed. r0ach, I am disappoint.

[realr0ach]

If DB, derivatives, and all the other shit goes bust, the world is obviously going back to metals as the base of the financial system.

That's a fairly huge leap in logic.  Why would any Central Bank voluntarily remove its ability to print fiat?

Because debt based fiat requires infinite growth or permanent interest rates of zero.  Demographics have peaked in every nation that matters as well as energy production and use, signifying the end of growth.  If interest rates are zero, dollars are not an asset because...they do not generate interest for who holds them whether it's a banker or an actual human.  

At that point it's inevitable dollars are ditched for metals instead because the metals are a real asset and dollars are not.  Staying on paper dollars with interest rates of zero - which is the paradigm we already have - just creates more malvinvestment to cataclysmically implode the system even harder.  A real asset has to be used to temper the malinvestment and to square international trade balances.  The longer you stay on paper notes with 0% interest rates, the bigger the implosion and likely higher required revaluation number for metals.  Metals win no matter what in the end.

[WinslowIII]

I remember back in dec 2013 when btc hit $1200 for a brief time and it was a big deal that it finally was the same price as an ounce of gold. Now look at the price difference, so sad. You are lucky if your gold and silver even keep pace with inflation over the last 10 years. What a tragic thing to have sat on while all these cryptos have done what they have.

[HairyMaclairy]

You haven’t answered the question.  You have just restated your assumption.  

Why would a Central Bank move onto the gold standard?  Spell it out.

[realr0ach]

I remember back in dec 2013 when btc hit $1200 for a brief time and it was a big deal that it finally was the same price as an ounce of gold. Now look at the price difference, so sad. You are lucky if your gold and silver even keep pace with inflation over the last 10 years.

You speak from a paradigm of Jew banks artificially rigging metals down with derivatives while allowing Bitcoin to rise (and probably even facilitating that rise) in order to try and distract the goyim slaves from metals.  You don't get to make a comparison between the two until the metals rigging implodes.  Until then, metals are an inverse bubble and digital shitcoins are an actual bubble.

[WinslowIII]

I remember back in dec 2013 when btc hit $1200 for a brief time and it was a big deal that it finally was the same price as an ounce of gold. Now look at the price difference, so sad. You are lucky if your gold and silver even keep pace with inflation over the last 10 years.

You speak from a paradigm of Jew banks artificially rigging metals down with derivatives while allowing Bitcoin to rise (and probably even facilitating that rise) in order to try and distract the goyim slaves from metals.  You don't get to make a comparison between the two until the metals rigging implodes.  Until then, metals are an inverse bubble and digital shitcoins are an actual bubble.

I suppose that's possible, but more likely is that crypto is just way more relevant to the modern age and this gap will just continue to widen.

[realr0ach]

You haven’t answered the question.  You have just restated your assumption.  

Why would a Central Bank move onto the gold standard?

The answer was already posted.  Fiat dollars are only an asset with interest rates higher than zero, or in reality, higher than inflation rate.  If rates are negative or even neutral, there is no reason to touch paper over metals and the invisible hand of the market causes the shift back to the real asset of metals.  Bankers and high net worth individuals are always trying to either increase their wealth or lower risk to their wealth.  This is the base of Exter's Pyramid. People will not set their money on fire on purpose, or stay in a risky asset with no benefit instead of switching to the lower risk one.  

You cannot stop the shift back to metals while having zero or negative interest rates, and you cannot have normal or high interest rates due to infinite growth no longer being sustainable and not being able to service 'the' debt or the debts.  Reset back to metals was always guaranteed.  A Jew bastard like Greenspan himself wouldn't have called for it if he didn't know it was inevitable anyway.

[HairyMaclairy]

Fiat dollars are only an asset with interest rates higher than zero, or in reality, higher than inflation rate.  If rates are negative or even neutral, there is no reason to touch paper over metals and the invisible hand of the market causes the shift back to the real asset of metals.

Haven’t interest rates been lower than inflation in the US since the GFC?  And nothing has changed?

[Toxic2040]

Fine.  I will make a half hearted attempt.

Toxic why do you close your box before December 2021?  Hard to tell on mobile but you are closing in October or November?

Does the centre represent a target?

whoops..missed this in the mayhem.


It was an apple to apple temporal box. Nothing special, just showing 18 bars and structural comparisons of the previous cycle. Interestingly enough that 'mid-point' in the box happens to coincide with previous bottoms...go figure.

M



p.s. Hairy..the bull run didnt start until June in 2015..at least that how I boxed it out. This years boxes started in April..thats why the large end box ends October 2021.