Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

You have vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.

(personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion) f.a.c.t.

[fonzie]

SUB 200$ Goxcoins - SOOOON ™

[BTC5OOO]

Ok... so stock markets look healthy atm,  all must be well then in the market place then?

Gold and Silver, little rally last few days, but been quite low for quite some time, so they must not be worth much...

Sorry to bore you, but no gun to your head old chap, so if you do not want to read hit ignore, with all respect.

Happy to discuss otherwise, without asking you not to post

I don't think that the stock market looks very healthy at the moment. There are also many uncertainties, and that's not considered healthy. Healthy is the market where there is little chance of bad surprises.
It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC. It's hard to imagine how someone could be this stupid, so I bet they are just manipulating the market and motivating the sheep to buy, so they can sell themselves.

the stock market has been kicking ass lately whachutalkinboutyo? =)

[JorgeStolfi]

OK, so here is the new hot Chinese (True) Slumber Method prediction for tomorrow:

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-02-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price:  3860 -- 3920 CNY (3890 plus or minus 30)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 625 -- 645 USD (635 plus or minus 10)

The prediction for Huobi above was obtained by fitting a least squares straight line to the True Slumber Points, namely the mean prices at February 10, 12, 14, 15, and 17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (yellow dots in the previously posted chart), and extrapolating that trend line for one more day.  The prices are ~4080, ~4006, ~4004, ~3961, and ~3905, respectively; which extrapolate to ~3890 CNY. 

The prediction for Bitstamp, as usual, is that for Huobi divided by the normal currency factor R = 6.12.

NOTE 1: Those predictions are conditional to Huobi's clients and their robots being all in bed by Feb/18 19:00 UTC.  Otherwise the Method offers no prediction.

NOTE 2: Beware that extemporaneous epiphanies may unexpectedly open wormholes in ontological space and send the market's collective weltanschauung to another galaxy.

[kkaspar]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

You have vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.

(personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion) f.a.c.t.

I bought at 200$, when bitcoin was actually covered by an famous news program in China that is known for representing the Chinese government stance. I sold at around the start of December, when there were no volume to support the price going up and it got clear that China won't have any legal potential with bitcoin. I only bought back once around 800, for couple of hours after I sold again. The last reason was only because I was intoxicated and bored.
So, you religious/lying sack of excrement, don't tell me about having no vision. Pricks like you have been telling me 2 month, that NOW it seems like the price is picking up again, making up childish reasons like "China doesn't even matter!". And for all those two months I held my own decision with only winning by doing this. The slow downfall just continues and continues and it's not difficult to see why.
Delusional pricks like you make me feel shame of my interest in bitcoin, because you do make this place look like a cult or a gang of crooks.

[fonzie]

Billy is angry

[empowering]

[podyx]

shame we cant get $250 coins on stamp

shit, id transfer my whole life savings  

[BitThink]

Why people keep trying to persuade others here? How about just bull longs, bear shorts, and others hold?

[kkaspar]

the stock market has been kicking ass lately whachutalkinboutyo? =)

For the whole 10 days?

[windjc]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

You have vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.

(personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion) f.a.c.t.

I bought at 200$, when bitcoin was actually covered by an famous news program in China that is known for representing the Chinese government stance. I sold at around the start of December, when there were no volume to support the price going up and it got clear that China won't have any legal potential with bitcoin. I only bought back once around 800, for couple of hours after I sold again. The last reason was only because I was intoxicated and bored.
So, you religious/lying sack of excrement, don't tell me about having no vision. Pricks like you have been telling me 2 month now, that NOW it seems like the price is picking up again, making up childish reasons like "China doesn't even matter!". And for all those two months I held my own decision with only winning by doing this. The slow downfall just continues and continues and it's not difficult to see why.
Delusional pricks like you make me feel shame of my interest in bitcoin, because you do make this place look like a cult or a gang of crooks.

Would you like a nice Cheddar to go with that whine?

To my point. You bought in October/November. You are new to bitcoin. No one is trying to convince you that we are going to the moon tomorrow. Read my posts. Over and over and over again I state we are in a bear market and we might hit the 200 sma average on Stamp before reversing. That average is at $450+ today and in about 4-5 weeks it will be at around $550.  So we are well on our way to full correction, in my opinion.

There. You happy now?

Btw, China doesn't matter. You think that was Chinese money going into Bistamp and Gox? It was money from all over the world.

[BitThink]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

You have vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.

(personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion) f.a.c.t.

I bought at 200$, when bitcoin was actually covered by an famous news program in China that is known for representing the Chinese government stance. I sold at around the start of December, when there were no volume to support the price going up and it got clear that China won't have any legal potential with bitcoin. I only bought back once around 800, for couple of hours after I sold again. The last reason was only because I was intoxicated and bored.
So, you religious/lying sack of excrement, don't tell me about having no vision. Pricks like you have been telling me 2 month, that NOW it seems like the price is picking up again, making up childish reasons like "China doesn't even matter!". And for all those two months I held my own decision with only winning by doing this. The slow downfall just continues and continues and it's not difficult to see why.
Delusional pricks like you make me feel shame of my interest in bitcoin, because you do make this place look like a cult or a gang of crooks.

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If everyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

[windjc]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

You have vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.

(personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion) f.a.c.t.

I bought at 200$, when bitcoin was actually covered by an famous news program in China that is known for representing the Chinese government stance. I sold at around the start of December, when there were no volume to support the price going up and it got clear that China won't have any legal potential with bitcoin. I only bought back once around 800, for couple of hours after I sold again. The last reason was only because I was intoxicated and bored.
So, you religious/lying sack of excrement, don't tell me about having no vision. Pricks like you have been telling me 2 month, that NOW it seems like the price is picking up again, making up childish reasons like "China doesn't even matter!". And for all those two months I held my own decision with only winning by doing this. The slow downfall just continues and continues and it's not difficult to see why.
Delusional pricks like you make me feel shame of my interest in bitcoin, because you do make this place look like a cult or a gang of crooks.

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

+1

[BTC5OOO]

Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk.

I lost some money hopping on Carboceramics too late in the game.  (They make sand, for fracking.)  I found the whole rock-sand trade to be too much risk for me.  Now I hold bitcoin instead.

ot# ~ Crack rocks no doubt lollllzzz! =)

[fonzie]

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

So why do you buy Bitcoin, and not just donate to Bitcoin related start ups, if it´s not about making profit?

[JorgeStolfi]

PS. I should add that the slope of the current "slumber trend" in Huobi's price (yellow line in the previously posted chart) seems consistent with my theory for the cause of such trends: namely, a gradual decrease  in the CNY/BTC ratio circulating in the Chinese bitcoin markets.

The money supply may be decreasing due to  unlucky traders leaving in frustration after losing money, while new investors are kept away by bad press and/or the general downward trend of the price over the last month. 

The coin supply may be increasing due to mining and/or inflow of bitcoins from  non-Chinese markets through arbitrage trading.

But, while the trend now seems real, these explanations are just guesses.

[traderCJ]

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

Well then pretty much everything traded under the sun is doomed ..  

The hodlers have no more high ground than the sodlers.  Each is speculating on a particular outcome.  One group is flexible in their opinions, and one group isn't.  You're treating this more like a religion than an investment.

[fonzie]

Bad news:

According to my TA, bear market will be infinite.

[Erdogan]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

You have vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.

(personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion) f.a.c.t.

I bought at 200$, when bitcoin was actually covered by an famous news program in China that is known for representing the Chinese government stance. I sold at around the start of December, when there were no volume to support the price going up and it got clear that China won't have any legal potential with bitcoin. I only bought back once around 800, for couple of hours after I sold again. The last reason was only because I was intoxicated and bored.
So, you religious/lying sack of excrement, don't tell me about having no vision. Pricks like you have been telling me 2 month, that NOW it seems like the price is picking up again, making up childish reasons like "China doesn't even matter!". And for all those two months I held my own decision with only winning by doing this. The slow downfall just continues and continues and it's not difficult to see why.
Delusional pricks like you make me feel shame of my interest in bitcoin, because you do make this place look like a cult or a gang of crooks.

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

+1

Wait a minute... a speculator that is wrong all the time, amplifies the ups and downs. A speculator that correctly foresees the highs and the lows and take corresponding action, will dampen the swings. If all speculators were really good, the swings would be wiped out. You could also say that a bad speculator is good for the good speculator. A buyer and holder (or a holder and buyer...) dampens the grand shock of implementing the whole thing.

[kkaspar]

Would you like a nice Cheddar to go with that whine?

To my point. You bought in October/November. You are new to bitcoin. No one is trying to convince you that we are going to the moon tomorrow. Read my posts. Over and over and over again I state we are in a bear market and we might hit the 200 sma average on Stamp before reversing. That average is at $450+ today and in about 4-5 weeks it will be at around $550.  So we are well on our way to full correction, in my opinion.

There. You happy now?

Btw, China doesn't matter. You think that was Chinese money going into Bistamp and Gox? It was money from all over the world.

It doesn't mater how new I am. Before 2013 bitcoin was just play money for buying drugs and the entire market system revolved around that utility. Right now bitcoin is at the doorstep in becoming a legal financial tool. This moment is crucial, if it succeeds it will rise much higher, but if it fails, then it won't get another chance. So, I don't really care about your bitcoin experience pre-2013. I just care if bitcoin will get past that doorstep or not. And currently it seems like it is slowly falling back.
And based on what, do you see that the price is actually rising not just preparing another deeper drop?
All I can see is relatively strong bottom resistance and very little lift. But without lift the bottom resistance is weakening and we can see this through most of January. There won't be a rise just because there is strong support at the bottom, there also has to be strong support for lift, but it aint there. Without lift the bottom will only weaken and weaken until it breaks.