Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Actually it's as Lauda says. The Segregated Witness thingy basically alters the transaction format so that certain (most) cryptographic proofs (the "witness") are not on the main blockchain (they're "segregated"). That's why space can be saved: segwit transactions can be stored more efficiently because some data can be discarded. This is why fees are significantly lower.

This is also incorrect. The signatures get stored in the chain as before, they just aren't counted towards the classic block size limit due to the segregation that you have mentioned.

I stand corrected. Witness data can be removed from the Merkle tree, not from the chain.

[1714119010]

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[1714119010]

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[1714119010]

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[Krubster]

Are you long or short? What % of capital? What are your take profit and stop loss levels?

I'm long.

If you count the btc/fiat/stocks ratio I'm 99% btc, and have been so since 2016. If you take properties/land into the equation I'm still 80% btc.

I'm debt-free. I have my own house and my own land.

I sell a small portion every month to cover my bills and everyday expenses. The rest stays in btc -- always.

I quit my corporate job in 2016. Because fuck them.

For me there is no take profit level. When the time comes, I won't need fiat.

[Negotiation]

@APompliano

This week in crypto:

1. Apple says they’re watching crypto
2. Binance issue USD stablecoin
3. Caliber issues digital mortgages
4. VanEck offers limited Bitcoin ETF
5. Franklin Templeton tokenize fund
6. Bitcoin still not dead

Every corporation will eventually be in the game!

Twitter post: https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1170321952604663808

[Negotiation]

Are you long or short? What % of capital? What are your take profit and stop loss levels?

I'm long.

If you count the btc/fiat/stocks ratio I'm 99% btc, and have been so since 2016. If you take properties/land into the equation I'm still 80% btc.

I'm debt-free. I have my own house and my own land.

I sell a small portion every month to cover my bills and everyday expenses. The rest stays in btc -- always.

I quit my corporate job in 2016. Because fuck them.

For me there is no take profit level. When the time comes, I won't need fiat.

don't need disclosed personal balance or etc sure you can share personal experience trade type or your memorials history maybe when start so inspired others people.

[fillippone]

It's time (again) for a Wall Observer Meta Post!
I made this post Monthly, so it will consider the merits sent during the month of August.
So I had to wait for the last merit dum, that included the last day of the month.

Merit analysis based on LoyceV merit file: http://loyce.club/Merit/merit.all.txt

Merit updated to August,31th, 2019 23:59:59 UTC

Total merits sent on WO:     28720
Monthly Merits sent on WO: 1127 (-)
Merited Users: 599 (+16)

TOP 100 WO MERIT RECEIVERS:

Code:

1.micgoossens             1833
2.Last of the V8s         1574
3.HairyMaclairy           1225
4.xhomerx10               1138
5.Toxic2040                934
6.BobLawblaw               921
7.jojo69                   812
8.infofront                713
9.JayJuanGee               700
10.LFC_Bitcoin             671
11.VB1001                  513
12.d_eddie                 513
13.Torque                  498
14.bitserve                474
15.gentlemand              391
16.Paashaas                375
17.mindrust                352
18.Elwar                   352
19.kenzawak                342
20.Globb0                  328
21.cAPSLOCK                294
22.JimboToronto            291
23.mfort312                282
24.fillippone              275
25.jbreher                 263
26.Raja_MBZ                258
27.Lambie Slayer           255
28.ivomm                   253
29.kurious                 251
30.BTCMILLIONAIRE          247
31.goldkingcoiner          247
32.Rosewater Foundation    244
33.Biodom                  237
34.nutildah                212
35.Phil_S                  197
36.realr0ach               196
37.TERA2                   194
38.JSRAW                   192
39.bones261                184
40.600watt                 182
41.Ibian                   180
42.vroom                   177
43.kingcolex               172
44.Kylapoiss               169
45.Icygreen                162
46.marcus_of_augustus      156
47.yefi                    153
48.Hueristic               149
49.Wekkel                  138
50.Pamoldar                138
51.Arriemoller             135
52.StartupAnalyst          130
53.Cryptotourist           130
54.toknormal               129
55.Spaceman_Spiff_Original 123
56.bitcoinPsycho           122
57.Anon136                 121
58.Dabs                    114
59.vapourminer             113
60.kirreev070              107
61.BinaryReign             105
62.AlcoHoDL                102
63.lightfoot                98
64.explorer                 97
65.Bitcoinaire              95
66.Searing                  88
67.serveria.com             86
68.sirazimuth               82
69.Cryptoqueeen             81
70.STT                      77
71.somac.                   72
72.BlindMayorBitcorn        72
73.HI-TEC99                 71
74.Gyrsur                   69
75.cryptjh                  68
76.Majormax                 67
77.Totscha                  66
78.pacman7331               66
79.cannycassiopeia          64
80.DeathAngel               64
81.bitebits                 63
82.conspirosphere.tk        63
83.nanobtc                  59
84.Karartma1                59
85.crypmike                 58
86.suchmoon                 56
87.strawbs                  54
88.Samarkand                54
89.BitcoinNewsMagazine      54
90.theymos                  53
91.FractalUniverse          53
92.RoomBot                  52
93.bkbirge                  52
94.rolling                  51
95.RayX12                   50
96.fluidjax                 50
97.Ludwig Von               48
98.gembitz                  48
99.encycrypto               48
100.Speculatoross           47

TOP 100 WO MERIT SENDERS:

Code:

1.JayJuanGee              2478
2.BobLawblaw              1965
3.micgoossens             1462
4.LFC_Bitcoin             1129
5.bones261                1057
6.infofront                994
7.Last of the V8s          786
8.Globb0                   758
9.jbreher                  728
10.xhomerx10               691
11.vapourminer             662
12.mindrust                628
13.HairyMaclairy           602
14.cAPSLOCK                554
15.600watt                 539
16.marcus_of_augustus      502
17.Toxic2040               429
18.jojo69                  393
19.Torque                  345
20.Paashaas                329
21.QuestionAuthority       311
22.Hueristic               284
23.d_eddie                 273
24.yefi                    256
25.Dabs                    254
26.VB1001                  248
27.bitserve                245
28.kurious                 229
29.BlindMayorBitcorn       209
30.gentlemand              208
31.Ibian                   207
32.Wekkel                  205
33.ErisDiscordia           202
34.kenzawak                191
35.bitebits                188
36.suchmoon                186
37.RoomBot                 180
38.Karartma1               179
39.JimboToronto            157
40.explorer                155
41.Raja_MBZ                154
42.nutildah                152
43.fillippone              151
44.Dunkelheit667           146
45.mfort312                145
46.Gyrsur                  144
47.Lambie Slayer           128
48.Pamoldar                126
49.ivomm                   124
50.kingcolex               123
51.ssmc2                   120
52.BTCMILLIONAIRE          118
53.Rosewater Foundation    116
54.edgar                   115
55.Searing                 113
56.goldkingcoiner          110
57.Majormax                108
58.Arriemoller             105
59.PoolMinor               101
60.xyzzy099                 99
61.Biodom                   97
62.lightfoot                95
63.P_Shep                   91
64.tonyq                    87
65.julian071                86
66.Phil_S                   85
67.sirazimuth               84
68.Icygreen                 83
69.conspirosphere.tk        82
70.JSRAW                    82
71.Kylapoiss                81
72.vroom                    76
73.RayX12                   73
74.criptix                  73
75.Elwar                    72
76.DeathAngel               71
77.bitcoinPsycho            65
78.Cryptotourist            65
79.StartupAnalyst           60
80.Anon136                  56
81.empowering               55
82.rolling                  52
83.AlcoHoDL                 51
84.Jayjay04                 50
85.sammy007                 50
86.soullyG                  49
87.STT                      48
88.FractalUniverse          48
89.mymenace                 46
90.MrFreeRoMan              45
91.Bitcoinaire              44
92.AlexGR                   43
93.Totscha                  42
94.serveria.com             42
95.afbitcoins               40
96.nanobtc                  38
97.flynn                    37
98.somac.                   37
99.fabiorem                 37
100.MirkoIta                36

                        
                            
TOP 100 MONTHLY WO RECEIVERS:

Code:

        
1.micgoossens              100
2.VB1001                    82
3.fillippone                68
4.HairyMaclairy             58
5.LFC_Bitcoin               52
6.SuperTA                   45
7.mindrust                  41
8.nutildah                  40
9.bkbirge                   38
10.JSRAW                    31
11.ivomm                    26
12.JayJuanGee               25
13.Toxic2040                24
14.Lambie Slayer            24
15.jojo69                   23
16.jbreher                  22
17.makrospex                18
18.Cryptotourist            17
19.kurious                  16
20.bitcoinPsycho            16
21.xhomerx10                13
22.Globb0                   13
23.JimboToronto             13
24.600watt                  13
25.AlcoHoDL                 13
26.Wilhelm                  13
27.Paashaas                 12
28.BobLawblaw               10
29.gentlemand               10
30.vroom                    10
31.Pamoldar                 10
32.lightfoot                10
33.sirazimuth               10
34.Elwar                     9
35.Biodom                    8
36.Hueristic                 8
37.Krubster                  8
38.Raja_MBZ                  7
39.vapourminer               7
40.GeoRW                     7
41.cAPSLOCK                  6
42.slocker                   6
43.d_eddie                   5
44.Searing                   5
45.STT                       5
46.somac.                    5
47.Majormax                  5
48.GreatArkansas             5
49._javi_                    5
50.jupiter9                  5
51.Last of the V8s           4
52.Spaceman_Spiff_Original   4
53.Dunkelheit667             4
54.Saint-loup                4
55.Negotiation               4
56.hd49728                   4
57.Torque                    3
58.Phil_S                    3
59.Icygreen                  3
60.Karartma1                 3
61.BitcoinNewsMagazine       3
62.hodl_2015                 3
63.Millionero                3
64.infofront                 2
65.realr0ach                 2
66.serveria.com              2
67.DeathAngel                2
68.nanobtc                   2
69.gembitz                   2
70.DaRude                    2
71.windjc                    2
72.soxxx                     2
73.gallianooo                2
74.btcbeliever               2
75.degxtra1                  2
76.aesma                     2
77.Bossian                   2
78.bitserve                  1
79.bones261                  1
80.Wekkel                    1
81.Arriemoller               1
82.Dabs                      1
83.Totscha                   1
84.RoomBot                   1
85.Ludwig Von                1
86.fabiorem                  1
87.criptix                   1
88.Syke                      1
89.P_Shep                    1
90.erre                      1
91.smartcomet                1
92.GrosWesh                  1
93.rdbase                    1
94.Febo                      1
95.dyask                     1
96.g-uid                     1
97.kronos123                 1
98.Lucius                    1
99.NeuroticFish              1        

TOP 100 MONTHLY WO SENDERS    

Code:

                                  
1.JayJuanGee               155
2.micgoossens              151
3.LFC_Bitcoin               60
4.fillippone                46
5.vapourminer               44
6.mindrust                  41
7.VB1001                    37
8.Globb0                    35
9.600watt                   35
10.jbreher                  30
11.Dabs                     30
12.BobLawblaw               26
13.bones261                 24
14.SuperTA                  24
15.Wilhelm                  20
16.infofront                19
17.HairyMaclairy            19
18.Lambie Slayer            19
19.Toxic2040                18
20.nutildah                 16
21.ssmc2                    14
22.bkbirge                  14
23.Hueristic                13
24.ivomm                    13
25.Paashaas                 11
26.jojo69                   10
27.JSRAW                     9
28.xhomerx10                 8
29.Pamoldar                  8
30.kingcolex                 8
31.bitcoinPsycho             8
32.Negotiation               8
33.Cryptotourist             7
34.makrospex                 7
35.cAPSLOCK                  6
36.Raja_MBZ                  6
37.lightfoot                 6
38.Torque                    5
39.JimboToronto              5
40.Phil_S                    5
41.AlcoHoDL                  5
42.GreatArkansas             5
43.kurious                   4
44.Biodom                    4
45.sirazimuth                4
46.Icygreen                  4
47.vroom                     4
48.DeathAngel                4
49.d_eddie                   3
50.Dunkelheit667             3
51.mfort312                  3
52.Ludwig Von                3
53._javi_                    3
54.Krubster                  3
55.Ibian                     2
56.ErisDiscordia             2
57.Majormax                  2
58.somac.                    2
59.BinaryReign               2
60.Syke                      2
61.rdbase                    2
62.BitcoinNewsMagazine       2
63.GrosWesh                  2
64.o_e_l_e_o                 2
65.NeuroticFish              2
66.Woodie                    2
67.WastedLTC                 2
68.Dux2K                     2
69.g-uid                     2
70.wildduck                  2
71.gentlemand                1
72.bitebits                  1
73.STT                       1
74.serveria.com              1
75.ChinkyEyes                1
76.HI-TEC99                  1
77.fluidjax                  1
78.Saint-loup                1
79.tmfp                      1
80.actmyname                 1
81.degxtra1                  1
82.rebal15                   1
83.BayAreaCoins              1
84.blink                     1
85.Daniel91                  1
86.Dotto                     1
87.dkbit98                   1
88.chimk                     1
89.tranthidung               1
90.hd49728                   1
91.Rikafip                   1
92.bakasabo                  1
93.mr_random                 1

           
  
MONTHLY sMERITS BALANCE

Code:

SMerits Balance=Received Merits/2-Sent Merits

Positive Balance means an user has been increasing sMerits on the WO thread, while negative numbers means the users has sent more merits on WO than received.
Negative numbers are possible or because he has been generous this week because he has been greedy past weeks (so only temporary imbalance), or because he has hoarded sMerits on other threads spending them on WO thread, or because he's a merit source.

TOP 20 MONTHLY NET RECEIVERS

Code:

1.HairyMaclairy             10
2.JSRAW                    6.5
3.bkbirge                    5
4.Elwar                    4.5
5.gentlemand                 4
6.kurious                    4
7.nutildah                   4
8.VB1001                     4
9.Searing                  2.5
10.Last of the V8s           2
11.makrospex                 2
12.Spaceman_Spiff_Original   2
13.AlcoHoDL                1.5
14.Cryptotourist           1.5
15.hodl_2015               1.5
16.JimboToronto            1.5
17.jojo69                  1.5
18.Karartma1               1.5
19.STT                     1.5
20.aesma                     1

TOP 20 MONTHLY WO NET SENDERS

Code:

1.JayJuanGee            -142.5
2.micgoossens             -101
3.vapourminer            -40.5
4.LFC_Bitcoin              -34
5.Dabs                   -29.5
6.600watt                -28.5
7.Globb0                 -28.5
8.bones261               -23.5
9.BobLawblaw               -21
10.mindrust              -20.5
11.jbreher                 -19
12.infofront               -18
13.ssmc2                   -14
14.Wilhelm               -13.5
15.fillippone              -12
16.Hueristic                -9
17.kingcolex                -8
18.Lambie Slayer            -7
19.Negotiation              -6
20.Toxic2040                -6

                 
Nice update, I think monthly cadence is more insightful, as less prone to weekly imbalances due to MS drought (mic, I do hear you).
Sadly, It a little bit delayed update, but I commit doing those as soon as sir LoyceV releases data dumps.


Still fixing glitches here and there, I am using this to getting better at data management (errors are mine).

[Toxic2040]

Good morning

Beating into a short choppy sea with more squalls on the horizon. The storm jib is out and we have 3 reefs in the main. Steady as she goes.

4h


D

[jojo69]

oh noes

mah trust

 

[El duderino_]

Have given my last 2 to @fillippone and @Toxic2040

Have a good evening brothers.....
Mic has to run, f00d and b00z are calling me out of my seat

[JayJuanGee]

I expect/hope 12K to be broken next week.

No.

11k is too hard to break.

We got too close and look what happened.

Ohh no again bought at the wrong time it seems.Hopefully there won't be too much dump from 10K region.

God no more four digit figures.

Surely we are getting within striking distance of 4 digits, but is this merely a fake out?     I would not proclaim to know, even though the BAKKT seems to be bullish in terms of what would seem to need to be extra demands on actual BTC supply - plus of course, another route for institutional money to more easily and justifiably get a bit of BTC stake.

Thank God the price seems to be stable at $10300 after that sudden dump.Where we are heading now?

Further price fall in this weekend or this is going to be bullish again?

We are stuck in a band between 9,300 and 11,300. It’s a bit irrelevant where it goes in that band it’ll bounce all over the place. What’s important is whether it breaks up or down.

80% chance we will eventually break upwards.

It feels so good to hear that 80% of chances to increase.

Anyway I am not selling anything in the near future but I am worried that whenever I invest on the bitcoin there is sudden dump immediately.

Am I the most unluckiest man in this world?

You are here, so you are very lucky (as are we).

You just need to shift your mindset to a minimum of five years.

Yes.  Exactly.   Even if I don't really agree with assigning an 80% probability of an upside breakout, in the short term, in the end, it might not matter too much. 

If anyone is worried about whether the break out is going to be up or down or the assignment of probabilities should be 58% or 80% to the upside, then you have not spent enough time accumulating and dollar cost averaging which in any 5 year time frame has very decent chances to being up rather than down or flat... which seems to be one of the reasons that bitcoin remains one of the best investments currently in terms of both hedging and having a decent asymmetric bet (to the upside, of course).

The vast majority of us should realize that there are no guarantees, and also that we don't want to become over-reliant or over-invested in one direction, such as up, even though such upward direction continues to have very decent probabilities of happening... but even with "very decent probabilities of up," that still is far from a guarantee.

[Biodom]

Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.

You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.      The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.

...This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..

So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are.  I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.  

In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.

Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.  

Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.  

Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.

The strategy of constantly selling and buying has one weakness: it produces LOTS of tax obligations during periods of fast btc growth.
Theoretically, if someone was selling extensively, then re-buying in 2017, then watching btc declining to 3k while having serious tax obligations resulting in a need to a selling of the additional chunk at a suboptimal (low) price.
Of course, this would not be the case when ample cash is available to pay the tax.
In other words, in high taxing environment, this strategy might backfire.

On the other hand, trying to sell at the top could be a difficult undertaking as well. The local top is currently projected (by various authors) to be anywhere between 30K and 400K. Tough choice.
HM here favors 180K (don't know where the number came from, maybe just personal preference).
My current feel is to allocate certain % for a sale, then sell once a personal preference is set in 1/10 fractions of the final number of btc sells. I intend to sell only up to 20% of my btc at the next ATH, knowing fully well that the rest would probably correct to 20% of the value. Why? Because I don't want to lose my position due to unforeseen price trajectory changes (like a double peak of 2013)..

[jbreher]

saying that segwit is not bitcoin is the same like saying TCP is not IP. it's the same, but it's another layer. TCP can't exist without IP and segwit can't exist without bitcoin.

Not sure you realize what you are saying here. IP certainly does exist independent of any TCP layer. By (your egregiously flawed) analogy, bitcoin certainly does exists independent of any SegWit. Indeed, without recourse to any analogy, bitcoin doth exist independent of SegWit. Remember -- "soft" fork? "Not" mandatory?

[fillippone]

<snip>

There mate,
Here you got my last Merit.
Put that half sMerit at good use!

[jbreher]

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

The same evidence that CSW is satoshi?

WTF are you on about? How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

[Globb0]

Do you see evidence of the computer in the printing press?

[Toxic2040]

oh noes

mah trust

 

I am sure it is all going to be fine...

We have to work on this trust issue...just saying.

[Dabs]

Not everyone here loves Andreas Antonopoulos, but he likes Segregated Witness in his wallets. (except for the vanity one I guess, but there's an update for vanity generated segwit addresses too.)

Sent merits to everyone on this page.

[Biodom]

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

The same evidence that CSW is satoshi?

WTF are you on about? How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

...and why that protocol could not be changed?

[Last of the V8s]

silly cunt that Lauda

[vroom]

is it just me or is it feeling pumpy?

[SuperTA]

It's time (again) for a Wall Observer Meta Post!
I made this post Monthly, so it will consider the merits sent during the month of August.
So I had to wait for the last merit dum, that included the last day of the month.

Merit analysis based on LoyceV merit file: http://loyce.club/Merit/merit.all.txt

Merit updated to August,31th, 2019 23:59:59 UTC

Total merits sent on WO:     28720
Monthly Merits sent on WO: 1127 (-)
Merited Users: 599 (+16)
                  
Nice update, I think montly cadence is more insightful, as less prone to weekly imbalances due to MS drought (mic, I do hear you).
Sadly, It a little bit delayed update, but I committ doing those as soon as sir LoyceV releases data dumps.


Still fixing glitches here and there, I am using this to getting better at data management (errors are mine).

Thank you for your statistics. I also made a monthly statistic for your local bitcointalk board. There are 625 posts published in August, or 20.16 posts per day.