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Question: Jan. 17 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (2.7%)
<$6500 - 5 (4.5%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 6 (5.4%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 8 (7.2%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 16 (14.4%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 25 (22.5%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 10 (9%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 15 (13.5%)
>$9,500 - 23 (20.7%)
Total Voters: 111

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21497504 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (138 posts by 32 users deleted.)
El duderino_
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October 02, 2019, 03:03:14 PM

watching Newbies slowly coming in here and also in the German WO thread. this is a good sign for adoption I guess. maybe we will see a little peek above $15K (but no new ATH) before the end of 2019. just telling.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52609651#msg52609651
^
If you got something to say, do it in here!

Make a piece of BTC while doing it.

Hey Mic! Interesting, what is your own prediction?  Cool

Just the worst in guessing things I would follow Hairymaclairy with a slight of more bullishness so we could close the year +5-digit somewhere near 11,777 is the price at dec 31
Maybe a bit higher in front but some n00bs will sell for some more expensive X-mass presents as they normal would buy.....
Just some n00b people with unexpected gains and not able handling there money properly Roll Eyes
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Dabs
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October 02, 2019, 03:25:51 PM

@Dabs : Regarding adoption : I am planning to pay my kids tuition fees etc in the year 2040-45 with BTC, if that's count. Hopefully Smiley

In that year, 1 BTC (or less) per child should cover a 4 year degree, including all expenses, ... likely those still exist in some form.
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October 02, 2019, 03:34:09 PM

The real trigger is after 2 or 3 more halvings. By then we'd have more than 99% of the supply mined, 8 million lost forever, so that leaves about 12 million corns in circulation. I don't know how much adoption is by then, but whatever it is, it will have hit or exceeded all price predictions.

Unfortunately, that's still at least a decade away.


It’s very likely we reach at least $50,000 after May 2020 halving. 


I think I already said this many times, also here on the WO.
I have a feeling a lot of people, institutional investors included, are looking at PlanB models, and probably sometimes between here and the halving we'll start seeing some kind of front running. I do agree with LFC scenario of easy 50K after halving in May20.

If the halving rally fails to materialise before or after the halving, say one year after, we still are around today's level, then we will experience a very long and cold cryptowinter II.
Institutional money, who is ready to dump a LOT of money into cryptos, see Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, high volatility asset. Something that is very precious in low volatility/negative interest rate financial environment.
If bitcoins then fails to provide those investors  with a positive return, then we we'll have a serious adoption problem posing a threat to further growth.

It is good to have a Plan B (pun intended), in case things don't go the way we expect. So, I appreciate every well informed contrarian opinion even if it's bearish. It is good to play every possible scenario. The worst you are talking about - staying at the current levels long after the halving  is only theoretically possible, IMHO. With almost all bitcoins mined and millions (probably even billions) new investors, I don't think this is a realistic scenario after 3 halvings. For example, after the one year bear market we saw a strong bull run with an increase more than 4 times, while most of the traders were still asking themselves if the 3k bottom was the last! There were no good news and the halving was a year away. This is a clear sign that 3K was not a real price but way below that price. The Summer action was also a good sign, since it showed that the exchanges have a good liquidity and can sustain 10K price. The bad news of bakkt's flop was a major blow to that support, but still the price in the next days fell only 15%, not 30%+ like in some previos bad days. So, even without institutional investors, we can expect the price will continue to grow. This will mean a 10K-ish rise of the price each year, so by 2025 we definitely should be above 50K. Then only 450BTC will be mined each day and many more will be lost, as Dabs pointed out. Again, I don't think it will be the case,  this is at least for me the worst bearish practically possible scenario. And since in the high volatile markets there are always explosive bull runs, it is highly probable that 50K will be touched much earlier.
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October 02, 2019, 04:04:05 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

2012   25   10500000   75.00%
2016   12.5   15750000   87.50%
2020   6.25   18375000   93.75%
2024   3.125   19687500   96.88%
2028   1.5625   20343750   98.44%
2032   0.78125   20671875   99.22%

So... these are estimates, and the first number is the year, so that could be off by 1 (or a few months). By 2030 we'd have 20 million corns and close to 99% of all corns mined. Within the next few years after that we will see more adoption. More hash rate.

And yet, anyone who gets in at that point is still an early adopter. I would guess we might see some stability by 2040 to 2050 as there are no new (not really) new corns being mined anymore. I mean only 10k corns every year, so that's like 850 corns per month.

The price per mined corn would be higher then, simply because each corn uses up more hashing power and there are less block rewards.

Even if every halving from now till then just results in a mere doubling in value, we are talking about 8 halvings. That's 2.56 million before the year 2050.

The goal now is to set aside some fiat, buy some corn, stick it in cold storage, don't touch it for a decade. A better idea would be to move and upgrade wallets as needed, from time to time, even if you just consolidate your corns into new addresses when fees are low. Like, you can wait a day to pay 1 sat / byte to move them, as you continue to buy $100 or whatever amount.
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October 02, 2019, 04:06:52 PM

The real trigger is after 2 or 3 more halvings. By then we'd have more than 99% of the supply mined, 8 million lost forever, so that leaves about 12 million corns in circulation. I don't know how much adoption is by then, but whatever it is, it will have hit or exceeded all price predictions.

Unfortunately, that's still at least a decade away.


It’s very likely we reach at least $50,000 after May 2020 halving. 


I think I already said this many times, also here on the WO.
I have a feeling a lot of people, institutional investors included, are looking at PlanB models, and probably sometimes between here and the halving we'll start seeing some kind of front running. I do agree with LFC scenario of easy 50K after halving in May20.

If the halving rally fails to materialise before or after the halving, say one year after, we still are around today's level, then we will experience a very long and cold cryptowinter II.
Institutional money, who is ready to dump a LOT of money into cryptos, see Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, high volatility asset. Something that is very precious in low volatility/negative interest rate financial environment.
If bitcoins then fails to provide those investors  with a positive return, then we we'll have a serious adoption problem posing a threat to further growth.


The rallying USD is concerning in the medium term. If much of Bitcoin's appeal lies, like gold, as a hedge against inflation, the USD could be seen as a safer bet over the next couple of years as the global economy collapses.
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October 02, 2019, 04:19:00 PM
Merited by infofront (1), Icygreen (1)

Big news boyz.

Sanders is out of the Presidential race for now and most likely for good, hospitalized for heart surgery.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bernie-sanders-78-canceled-events-notice-hospitalized/story?id=66003850

This is part of the problem with modern politics. The people in power are way past their prime and too old to be the best leaders available. I bet Trump, Sanders, Hillary, and half of Congress is too old and mentally incapacitated to pass a drivers license test, yet they and others like them across the globe run the world.

Yang, the most pro crypto Presidential candidate is young and his prospects are growing stronger by the day.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

He is a strong third place in betting markets for winning the nomination. He was tied with Sanders for third a few weeks ago and now his betting odds are almost double Sanders.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/02/politics/yang-10-million-third-quarter/index.html

Yang just raised 10 million USD in the last quarter and shows no sign of stopping his rampage into the American spotlight.

"Andrew Yang is the only contender showing exponential growth in the third quarter, more than tripling his fundraising number from last quarter," said Zach Graumann, Yang's campaign manager. "This grassroots fundraising total, with $6m+ in the bank, ensures this campaign will have the funding to compete and outperform expectations through Super Tuesday and beyond."

For those too young to legally smoke Hopium please dont read the next few sentences. Thank you.

As we all know(the science is settled) Bitcoin is the most hyper-intelligent and supreme living entity in the known universe. It will continue to support Yang in ways too mysterious for higher primates to apprehend but you can trust that Yang will win and Bitcoin will soon be the official currency of the United States via executive order. Cheesy

via Imgflip Meme Generator

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October 02, 2019, 04:23:17 PM

Stock boyz seeing carnage today. They better not drag the King down with them temporarily with their shitty house of cards.  Angry
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October 02, 2019, 04:25:59 PM

The real trigger is after 2 or 3 more halvings. By then we'd have more than 99% of the supply mined, 8 million lost forever, so that leaves about 12 million corns in circulation. I don't know how much adoption is by then, but whatever it is, it will have hit or exceeded all price predictions.

Unfortunately, that's still at least a decade away.


It’s very likely we reach at least $50,000 after May 2020 halving. 


I think I already said this many times, also here on the WO.
I have a feeling a lot of people, institutional investors included, are looking at PlanB models, and probably sometimes between here and the halving we'll start seeing some kind of front running. I do agree with LFC scenario of easy 50K after halving in May20.

If the halving rally fails to materialise before or after the halving, say one year after, we still are around today's level, then we will experience a very long and cold cryptowinter II.
Institutional money, who is ready to dump a LOT of money into cryptos, see Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, high volatility asset. Something that is very precious in low volatility/negative interest rate financial environment.
If bitcoins then fails to provide those investors  with a positive return, then we we'll have a serious adoption problem posing a threat to further growth.


The rallying USD is concerning in the medium term. If much of Bitcoin's appeal lies, like gold, as a hedge against inflation, the USD could be seen as a safer bet over the next couple of years as the global economy collapses.
USD surely is the "best of the bad bunch" when you come to FIAT.
But an hedge against inflation and market collapse must be found outside the FIAT realm. so Gold or his digital equivalent. There's no way to to avoid this, and institutional investors know that. That's why they're scratch the front door of BTC investments.

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October 02, 2019, 04:29:04 PM
Merited by Lambie Slayer (1)

My friend Shelby, who many of you may know, just pointed out that we're still following masterluc's Dec. 2018 predictions:

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October 02, 2019, 04:56:07 PM

Masterluc's projected future doesn't sound too bad. I could live with that. He's been falsified several times, but only on short-mid term predictions. His original long term prediction, still in the neighborhood of "valid", has been uncannily accurate in the past.

Live and see, I guess. As usual. Hodl.
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October 02, 2019, 05:03:30 PM
Merited by UNOE (2), Harkorede (1)

South korea is third in the world for cryptocurrency adoption? Just behind japan and the states in this race to be numero uno.
These are some interesting video clips of cointelegraph who explain what is going on in a hotbed for the lunar age people of the orient. Age of moon maybe? Smiley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E--wTNbbxZs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtcU34rcn50

The company #hashed is an interesting one to follow and wouldnt have known about these big players in the crypto world without stumbling upon these recent videos published in the past week by them. Even if you dont like them it is informative if your not familiar with this side of the world in your travels.
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October 02, 2019, 05:04:31 PM

My friend Shelby, who many of you may know
<snip>

Yeah,
Carrol Shelby: Matt Damon is filming a movie on this incredible BTC predicting abilities.

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yes


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October 02, 2019, 05:07:00 PM

Thing are slow atm.

But Bitcoin @8,xxx is still good. Very good.

The longer the lull persists, the bigger the ensuing pump. Monetary craziness will ensure the outcome. Just think in years instead of months.
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October 02, 2019, 05:12:25 PM

Bitcoin Optech newsletter #66 is here:

Quote
- notes a proposed Erlay BIP
- announces vulnerability disclosure in previous LN software 
- links to an Optech schnorr/taproot workshop transcript
- includes a BTSE field report on exchange use of Bitcoin tech

https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2019/10/02/
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October 02, 2019, 05:15:34 PM


Hi VB

Is it possible to show % change in price vs % change in replies?  It is hard to compare price moves against changes in replies without a like for like comparison

Thank you !

Sure, give me some time, I'm not with my machine now, I'm working elsewhere.
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October 02, 2019, 05:36:27 PM
Merited by Globb0 (5), El duderino_ (2)

WO sign gets everywhere, good evening gentlemen!

Location - Anfield Stadium, Liverpool, UK.

I’m in early, let’s fucking go!



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October 02, 2019, 05:47:41 PM

My friend Shelby, who many of you may know
<snip>

Yeah,
Carrol Shelby: Matt Damon is filming a movie on this incredible BTC predicting abilities.



Shocked Shocked

what does he has inside the pants? a wrench? #nohomo
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October 02, 2019, 06:00:41 PM

WO sign gets everywhere, good evening gentlemen!

Location - Anfield Stadium, Liverpool, UK.

I’m in early, let’s fucking go!





Against RB Austria Salzburg today, isn't it?
Have fun, they seem to play the season of their lifetime.
El duderino_
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October 02, 2019, 06:23:47 PM

https://twitter.com/coolstuffcheap/status/1179118354537353221?s=20
^Made me laugh Cheesy
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October 02, 2019, 06:37:57 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), infofront (1)

My friend Shelby, who many of you may know, just pointed out that we're still following masterluc's Dec. 2018 predictions:


Considering this was posted in december 2018, that's pretty spot on.

If we evaluate each of his predictions, we get as follows (I'm taking these numbers out of my memory, so please excuse me if I got anything wrong)

  • End of 2018: Find local bottom between ~1500 and 3000
    - Pretty close on, we hit the bottom at ~$3100 in December
  • Mid 2019: Retest the straight trend between 10k and 20k
    - Again, pretty damn close. We reached a local high of 13k in August.
  • End of 2019: Fall back to the verified support at ~6000
    - Still a few months left, but not far off if we look at the current price
  • 2021: Go to new highs and historical V, according to his charts at 70k+
    - Yet to be verified

I've been following Masterluc since 2012. Him predicting the top in 2013, following by a multi-year bear market (if I recall correctly) was pretty damn impressive. After that he made a few less accurate predictions and after that I haven't pay as much attention to him as I originally did. But damn, these predictions of him deserve some credits.
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