Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Outside of bitcoin, the explanation about repo-gate from already familiar C. Long:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2019/09/25/the-real-story-of-the-repo-market-meltdown-and-what-it-means-for-bitcoin/

For every US Treasury security outstanding, roughly three parties believe they own it. That’s right. Multiple parties report that they own the very same asset, when only one of them truly does.

Caitlin has always been good on this; the same rehypothecation exists in share markets, as she has properly ranted about before.  Basically Wall Street only makes money by selling what it has many times over.  Selling stuff it actually does not have is its business model.

This is part of the big financial institutions' problem with Bitcoin - that they can't own one BTC and sell it, or rent it out for interest 20 times over.  If they can work out how to rehypothecate Bitcoin you can bet your shirt they will, but so far there hasn't been a way because of Bitcoin's transparent ledger and regulatory issues.

Exchanges already do rehypothecate - so of course it is possible, but only where the institution holds the keys of other third parties, and people who pay for or rent Bitcoin trust that third party to hold it rather than deliver.  In this respect Bitcoin is like physical gold - rather than issued gold certificates.

Satoshi's design was all about this issue and the criminal recklessness of the world's financial instututions.  If you doubt this at all - I refer you, Ladies and Gentlemn to Bitcoin's Genesis Block.

They have, it's called options on non-settled future contracts.

[1714203270]

1714203270

[royalfestus]

Massive buy order at even a lower price than we are seeing, staggered for those not sure of how dip it could go. It is now about the Benjamin

[El duderino_]

In here its always about tha BTC bro

Goodnight, crawling into my HODLnest............ time for e well earned HODLsleep

[JimboToronto]

your mom is ugly

Hey. Leave Schlitzie alone.

I met her back in the early 1960s when she was still working the freak shows.

She was actually quite the charmer (for a microcephalic).

Probably smarter than some of the trolls here too.

[El duderino_]

Or better said



On its way...... Lets hope the weekend-bull appears to kick off October as it should be kicked off

[LUCKMCFLY]

Many times you can understand the market in the opposite way ...



And if we see another approach:
Positive News = Price Drop = Sales
Negative News = Price Increase: Purchases

Price drop with "Open Shorts" = Smart Purchases by Investors.

As Jesse Livermore said: "The best way to Accumulate is by buying cheap, when people panic" 

Perhaps the best opportunity is being presented right now and represents purchase ..

[sirazimuth]

your mom is ugly

Hey. Leave Schlitzie alone.

I met her back in the early 1960s when she was still working the freak shows.

She was actually quite the charmer (for a microcephalic).

Probably smarter than some of the trolls here too.

I wish I was that happy....

[rdbase]

Next hours are critical

Where have I heard this before?
I think bitcoin is a game of the minds.
Those who blink first are the losers of the game.
The winners are the ones who hold the most leverage in their portfolios.

[Biodom]

A few points:

1. Mayer multiple is at 0.97 (close enough to 1 which might still indicates a bull market). In bear it could go as low as 0.5
https://mayermultiple.info/

2. S/F model current predicted value is $9016/8276
https://digitalik.net/btc/

All and all 8000 is kind of important for short-mid term direction.

Undecided on whether I should buy more here or not.

EDIT: let's play a game...what if 2019-2020 will have a similar config to two-humped 2013.
2013 (heavy metal rhythm): 12 to 250, down to 65, up to 1160 (within a year)
2019-2020 (something slower): 3100 to 13800, down to, say, 7.2K, up to 54-64K (in two years with half a volatility up and down)

[Majormax]

I think one huge red dildo down to high 6ks with mega volume and a lot of beautiful bottom memes could end this and restart the bull run into the halving. I like how fast this is happening. Much better than a slow drip.

Whales know because of the halving they dont have much time to cause max pain to newbs, weak hands, and get rich quick pumpers so whatever the bottom is (Id guess 6800 rn if I had to) I expect it to materialize quickly(30 days max).

TLDR: if you need to move fiat to exchanges to take advantage of rock bottom prices, do it pronto.

Agree with most of that.

The support at 6-7k needs a proper test.

No outcome is certain, of course, but this dip has a much better feel to it. I was really uncomfortable with the move up to 14k in July.  Without that, I think BTC could have been steadily rising through 10k right now.

[btcbeliever]

https://beincrypto.com/five-reasons-why-bitcoin-investors-shouldnt-be-worried/

According to Hans HODL, Bitcoin’s fundamentals don’t match the panic surrounding its future right now. The suggestion is for traders and holders to step outside of the noise for a bit and look at Bitcoin objectively. Using these metrics, we can see that major indicators for Bitcoin remain positive — and are even getting better.

[jojo69]

Anyone has any wild guess at which price the real support might be at?

I think there is some pretty solid support around 5700, then the low 3Ks

[JayJuanGee]

I know it sounds impossible. But any chance to see 1-2k?? I have cash lying around and I seriously would go all in on these levels.

That would be dumb to wait for that price level.

[infofront]

Venezuela Has Bitcoin Stash and Doesn’t Know What to Do With It

I could think of a few things to do with it.

[jojo69]

Hey Jimbo, if you're on

Felix Hernandez is about to pitch his last game if you are interested.

[Arriemoller]

Anyone has any wild guess at which price the real support might be at?

I think there is some pretty solid support around 5700, then the low 3Ks

Et tu, Brute?

[HairyMaclairy]

Daily RSI is at 20.

The only time we have been this low in the last couple of years was when we bottomed at $3.1k.



This is strongly suggestive of bottoming.

And we have a bullish divergence on the 4 hour




Time to bounce

[smartcomet]

https://twitter.com/yassineARK/status/1175155663128944641

It never ceases to amaze me just how prescient The Sovereign Individual was for its time.

20 years later, applying its ideas to Bitcoin is more relevant than ever.

A thread on the implications of Bitcoin: The Sovereign Individual edition

[dern]

я дyмaю тaк и бyдeт

[cabalism13]

I know it sounds impossible. But any chance to see 1-2k?? I have cash lying around and I seriously would go all in on these levels.

That would be dumb to wait for that price level.

Not even after 30 years, I guess.
I think by this time, it will hit again below $5,000... If it strikes the $7,000 during 1st week of October then the possibility of having a Pump will be a slight crucial. The much possibility is it will go down deeper. So, gonna stick with $5,000 and expect nothing more.

Lets hope the weekend-bull appears to kick off October as it should be kicked off

Yeah, you wish 😂