Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

I'm not a huge fan of the system but then I'm no expert.

I'm no expert either, but the system does pay off with a little caution.

really? may you care to explain, please?

This system can and does pay off. A couple ways it can:

- No need to close both positions at the same time! You could taper the losing one or close it abruptly if you're sure of the trend.

- Different size/different leverage for the two positions.

EDIT As an actual example, I have a long position still suffering. Alive, but not kicking. I opened a short and scalped it down, cashing out little bits and refreshing the short when the price bounced up. So my losses on the long are mitigated. In this case the short is smaller than the long, but it hasn't been like this every time.

EDIT: this WO thread is a time eater for sure! Damn!  

EDIT2: is rehab possible?

You could sell all your coins, so you'd stop wasting your time here.

Hm, on second though what if you become like r0ach and end up wasting even more time? As as added insult, you'd probably feel very very bad as a noob nocoiner.

Summing up, I have to admit I have no useful rehab suggestions. Sorry.

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[jackbauercsgo]

Hey guys, have you ever done some trading on both sides? That is, if you enter Long, do you protect your position in Short with some leverage? This Spanish-speaking Trader did it, the video is from 2018, but it seems to me that the adrenaline he feels is a lot! more when you do it with 100k!

https://i.imgur.com/Xv1Vx5v.png
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7p5UTPNPIs&t=14s


As Jesse Livermore did, it is a way to always be in the market, no matter which direction you are going.

Do you think it is convenient to do it right now in the market? Since the price is expected to increase, but if it falls, protect your position.

Obviously, to do this you have to have a lot of experience and try to suppress emotions to the fullest.

it do not make sense to me. if I buy I expect the price to increase and if I short with leverage I expect the price to decrease.

if I buy one BTC and the same time I short BTC with leverage then if the price will increase my short will get liquidated soon depending on my leverage. if the price decreases my short will get in profit but then it was useless to buy BTC because better buy after the short was closed in profit.

Indeed that strategy has no meaning.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short a bitcoin I am flat.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short 2 bitcoin I am short 1 bitcoin (so why getting long a bitcoin in the first place?)
If I buy a bitcoin and then I shott  10 bitcoin I am short 9 bitcoin.... (again..)

This reasoning could be very different if there were options available to trade. But this is not the case.
I dismiss that video as bullshit.

It's just a way to manage consolidation areas and then play the breakout.  Most of these guys trade with leverage.  So a break out can result in a 10X return for a little risk.  Again, I don't do it but I understand how it works and what the draw is. 

[lightfoot]

Is "Negotiation" a bot learning?

Seems to be a non-native english speaker, doing a word-by-word translation from his/her native language.

One day he will achieve to have a team.... helping out....

I can see the nuances of the English language being a problem. Will keep that in mind as I fuck around on this forum.

[fillippone]

I'm not a huge fan of the system but then I'm no expert.

I'm no expert either, but the system does pay off with a little caution.

really? may you care to explain, please?

This system can and does pay off. A couple ways it can:

- No need to close both positions at the same time! You could taper the losing one or close it abruptly if you're sure of the trend.

- Different size/different leverage for the two positions.

Only way to decide to keep open a position is current Mark to Market, not inception or initial trade level.
 So I humbly disagree on this specific approach.

[fillippone]

Again, I don't do it but I understand how it works and what the draw is. 

Believe me I know how it works and having long and short positions doesn't help you with this, as the only way at looking it is doing all the sums and think like you have only one position.

[jbreher]

is this scenario, what most of you guys think?

What do I think? Delete the Ripple.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I'm not a huge fan of the system but then I'm no expert.

I'm no expert either, but the system does pay off with a little caution.

really? may you care to explain, please?

This system can and does pay off. A couple ways it can:

- No need to close both positions at the same time! You could taper the losing one or close it abruptly if you're sure of the trend.

- Different size/different leverage for the two positions.

EDIT: this WO thread is a time eater for sure! Damn!  

EDIT2: is rehab possible?

You could sell all your coins, so you'd stop wasting your time here.

Hm, on second though what if you become like r0ach and end up wasting even more time? As as added insult, you'd probably feel very very bad as a noob nocoiner.

Summing up, I have to admit I have no useful rehab suggestions. Sorry.

You are right, well, it is a system that can be safe if it is perfected with the experience, every time it is successful in trade it is because another lost the trade that he did, it is like trading with the money of others, since Everything is valid from the point of view of market speculation.

[HairyMaclairy]

One needs a good deal of darmklachten to put up with this verlakkerij.

Haha if someone knows what  V8 is meaning in here, would be impressive ......... Be quiet Hairy.

It takes a lot of stomach to put up with this cheater

Haha nice try, but couldn't be more wrong as that

Actually it was just something Hairy said to me and I google translate with ... Not everyone has your intestinal fortitude ---  Niet iedereen heeft je darmkracht

actually darmklachten = intestinal complaints....

I made a joke in Dutch.  I am excessively proud of this accomplishment.  

[JayJuanGee]

Hey guys, have you ever done some trading on both sides? That is, if you enter Long, do you protect your position in Short with some leverage? This Spanish-speaking Trader did it, the video is from 2018, but it seems to me that the adrenaline he feels is a lot! more when you do it with 100k!

https://i.imgur.com/Xv1Vx5v.png
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7p5UTPNPIs&t=14s


As Jesse Livermore did, it is a way to always be in the market, no matter which direction you are going.

Do you think it is convenient to do it right now in the market? Since the price is expected to increase, but if it falls, protect your position.

Obviously, to do this you have to have a lot of experience and try to suppress emotions to the fullest.

it do not make sense to me. if I buy I expect the price to increase and if I short with leverage I expect the price to decrease.

if I buy one BTC and the same time I short BTC with leverage then if the price will increase my short will get liquidated soon depending on my leverage. if the price decreases my short will get in profit but then it was useless to buy BTC because better buy after the short was closed in profit.

Indeed that strategy has no meaning.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short a bitcoin I am flat.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short 2 bitcoin I am short 1 bitcoin (so why getting long a bitcoin in the first place?)
If I buy a bitcoin and then I shott  10 bitcoin I am short 9 bitcoin.... (again..)

This reasoning could be very different if there were options available to trade. But this is not the case.
I dismiss that video as bullshit.

Of course, I don't short bitcoin, but I do sell small amounts of BTC on the way up.   It seems to me that shorting can be employed merely to amplify the system that I already employ; however, such amplification is not so great as to overwhelm the longs including either not using stops, or putting the stops out so far as to have less chances of being manipulated out of the position.

Accordingly, the longs might be something like 10 bitcoin, but the shorts would be less than 2 bitcoins and perhaps even frequently less than 1 bitcoin.  In other words, the shorts are just a small fraction of the longs, and end up providing a kind of insurance against the longs, even while, overall, it would be more profitable for the BTC price to go up, rather than down.   

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

[d_eddie]

I'm not a huge fan of the system but then I'm no expert.

I'm no expert either, but the system does pay off with a little caution.

really? may you care to explain, please?

This system can and does pay off. A couple ways it can:

- No need to close both positions at the same time! You could taper the losing one or close it abruptly if you're sure of the trend.

- Different size/different leverage for the two positions.

Only way to decide to keep open a position is current Mark to Market, not inception or initial trade level.
 So I humbly disagree on this specific approach.

No need to be humble, since you probably know better than I.

In support of my stance:

- Mark to Market is a worse metric when the asset has strong volatility or is subject to the whim of sentiment. Which is the case for bitcoin.

- I let my long live because she will get back up there eventually! This might not be 100% rational, all right  

[jackbauercsgo]

Again, I don't do it but I understand how it works and what the draw is. 

Believe me I know how it works and having long and short positions doesn't help you with this, as the only way at looking it is doing all the sums and think like you have only one position.

No, this is incorrect.  You have to remember a lot of these traders only care about growing their $USD position for their company or shareholders or whatever.  So if you hedge a range and lose 10% while gaining 50%, then you had a significant increase to your USD position.  In their mind, better to be mostly right & a little wrong rather than completely right or wrong.

Also, there are options vessels with call/put premiums that can further mitigate the risk of a particular position.  Not everyone just buys and hodl's. 

Funny enough though, I'm one that has gone from "day trading" all this to large multi month swings / simply hodling (due to time constraints).  So I only recommend these strategies for people who have a lot of time to manage the entries and exits.

[fillippone]

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

So your reasoning is the following.
You are long 10 BTC.  You short sell 1.

1)If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you lost on the short bitcoin, but actually you gained.
2) If BTC goes down, you are sad, but at least you can buy back your bitcoin, profit from it and alleviate your suffering.

THe reality is.
a)You are long 10 BTC.
b)You decide to sell 1 bitcoin.
c)You are long 9 bitcoin and some cash.
If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you gained. on those 9 bitcoin. Cash is the same.
If BTC goes down, you are sad, because you are losing on those 9 bitcoin. Then you decide to buy another bitcoin and you are long 10 bitcoin and some (less) cash. You are in a very similar position than point c. but with less cash to spend on more bitcoin buying.

If you are trading with linear assets there's no other other way to sum all of your positions and think about only as a SUM. the worst think yopu can think is where you bought some corn and you have to sell it above that level to gain.

I strongly disagree with d_eddie.
Even in highly volatile environment Mark To market is the best way to think of your trading position, because MtM has to do with the current price, so it has to do with the future movements.
If you think on yor P&L, you think where you traded the corn in the Past. Very dangerous.
When you trade you have to think only where you are headed to, not where you have been: is't like driving looking into the rearview mirror to decide where the road is headed....

- I let my long live because she will get back up there eventually! This might not be 100% rational, all right  

This is actually 100% rational. HODLing is the best strategy to gain from Bitcoin!

EDIT: I just realised I replied to JJG. I don't know if I am ready for a wall of text!

[d_eddie]

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

So your reasoning is the following.
You are long 10 BTC.  You short sell 1.

1)If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you lost on the short bitcoin, but actually you gained.
2) If BTC goes down, you are sad, but at least you can buy back your bitcoin, profit from it and alleviate your suffering.

THe reality is.
a)You are long 10 BTC.
b)You decide to sell 1 bitcoin.
c)You are long 9 bitcoin and some cash.
If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you gained. on those 9 bitcoin. Cash is the same.
If BTC goes down, you are sad, because you are losing on those 9 bitcoin. Then you decide to buy another bitcoin and you are long 10 bitcoin and some (less) cash. You are in a very similar position than point c. but with less cash to spend on more bitcoin buying.

Try to look at it another way:

You are long 10 BTC. You short sell 1.

BTC goes down. You close the short and 10% of your virtual losses on the long are recovered.

Then, EITHER

- BTC goes back up. When it gets back where you started, you still have the (real) profit made on the short.

OR

- BTC goes down some more. You're losing, but you're losing somewhat less. You have more margin - whether you want to risk some more, or you're just glad your liquidation is that little bit further away.

That's how I have used my contrarian positions until today, and I am glad I did.

[goldkingcoiner]

I wonder what would happen to the price of Bitcoin once quantum computer technology advances. I suppose quantum miners would plummet the markets to the ground?  

Why would you think that?

I was thinking a sudden pseudo-inflation of the coin supply caused by unimaginably fast mining capabilities would dilute the price. although, by that point we would probably have only a small amount left to mine so it would not matter, maybe?

[LUCKMCFLY]

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

So your reasoning is the following.
You are long 10 BTC.  You short sell 1.

1)If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you lost on the short bitcoin, but actually you gained.
2) If BTC goes down, you are sad, but at least you can buy back your bitcoin, profit from it and alleviate your suffering.

THe reality is.
a)You are long 10 BTC.
b)You decide to sell 1 bitcoin.
c)You are long 9 bitcoin and some cash.
If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you gained. on those 9 bitcoin. Cash is the same.
If BTC goes down, you are sad, because you are losing on those 9 bitcoin. Then you decide to buy another bitcoin and you are long 10 bitcoin and some (less) cash. You are in a very similar position than point c. but with less cash to spend on more bitcoin buying.

If you are trading with linear assets there's no other other way to sum all of your positions and think about only as a SUM. the worst think yopu can think is where you bought some corn and you have to sell it above that level to gain.

I strongly disagree with d_eddie.
Even in highly volatile environment Mark To market is the best way to think of your trading position, because MtM has to do with the current price, so it has to do with the future movements.
If you think on yor P&L, you think where you traded the corn in the Past. Very dangerous.
When you trade you have to think only where you are headed to, not where you have been: is't like driving looking into the rearview mirror to decide where the road is headed....

- I let my long live because she will get back up there eventually! This might not be 100% rational, all right  

This is actually 100% rational. HODLing is the best strategy to gain from Bitcoin!

EDIT: I just realised I replied to JJG. I don't know if I am ready for a wall of text!

It is a great point of view, in fact I placed that analysis because I see that it is a way to protect a LONG, in fact, the best is Hold, but if the market moves against our Long, we could not lose, and even get some gain with a Short ... in fact, that technique is from a speculator from the 1800-1900s, Jesse Livermore.

[d_eddie]

I wonder what would happen to the price of Bitcoin once quantum computer technology advances. I suppose quantum miners would plummet the markets to the ground?  

Why would you think that?

I was thinking of a sudden pseudo-inflation of the coin supply caused by unimaginably fast mining capabilities would bring down the price. although, by that point we would probably have only a small amount left to mine so it would not matter, maybe?

The spike in the inflation rate couldn't last beyond the next difficulty adjustment.
It would "just" be the end for all the old (non quantum) miners thrown out of the market overnight.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I made a joke in Dutch.  I am excessively proud of this accomplishment.  

<preface: 6 beers before noon>

If I haven't low-key doxed myself already, my best friend passed early in life, from colon cancer. He was Dutch, and leaves behind a wife and child that we consider close-distant family - Spending American Thanksgiving with his wife and his son, who, for all intents and purposes, will be inheriting a nontrivial fortune upon my passing.

I don't know why I posted this just now.

I think I just really miss my Dutch friend.

No homo.

Bob, I’m really sorry for your loss. I only fear one thing in life & it’s cancer. I’ve had a drink myself so I don’t mind about being honest myself. I’ve had two scares this year -

1.) Went for a routine eye test & the optician told me something wasn’t right & I should go to A&E. I had to see a consultant & it turned out I have a fucking lazy eye. Bitch made me think I had something awful for weeks.

2.) More recently I had bad abdominal pains & saw blood in my shit. I thought I had colon cancer, went for tests & again - Nothing.

All this crap has turned me into a bit of a hypochondriac. There needs to be a cure for all types of cancer, it tears families apart. You can have all the money in the world but you can’t stop it. My advice is to take regular screening tests etc once you get to 35. I’m 34 & I’m probably going to have a colonoscopy once every couple of years now, get my moles checked etc & have regular private doctors assessments annually.

I swear it’s the only thing in life I fear.

God bless your friend & the family he leaves behind

[HairyMaclairy]

Again, I don't do it but I understand how it works and what the draw is. 

Believe me I know how it works and having long and short positions doesn't help you with this, as the only way at looking it is doing all the sums and think like you have only one position.

Agreed it sounds like overtrading to me. 

[Lambie Slayer]

Sh*t as always

I would give u some merit but i have none.

Luckily.... your merit has been proven to have bad re-send value

maybe i should post pics of my GF and mindless food to get some ?

Sorry Fatty alt account, this isnt a tranny porn site.

[jbreher]

I wonder what would happen to the price of Bitcoin once quantum computer technology advances. I suppose quantum miners would plummet the markets to the ground?  

Why would you think that?

I was thinking a sudden pseudo-inflation of the coin supply caused by unimaginably fast mining capabilities would dilute the price. although, by that point we would probably have only a small amount left to mine so it would not matter, maybe?

Quantum computing brings little advantage to hashing. Specifically to SHA256 - the algo used in Bitcoin mining. Accordingly, Bitcoin mining will be an uneconomical activity for relatively scarce and relatively expensive quantum computers. It won't be like flipping a switch, so it won't bear heavily on the difficulty adjustment.