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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21451778 times)
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October 03, 2019, 05:28:16 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

I wonder what would happen to the price of Bitcoin once quantum computer technology advances. I suppose quantum miners would plummet the markets to the ground?  

Why would you think that?

I was thinking a sudden pseudo-inflation of the coin supply caused by unimaginably fast mining capabilities would dilute the price. although, by that point we would probably have only a small amount left to mine so it would not matter, maybe?

Quantum computing brings little advantage to hashing. Specifically to SHA256 - the algo used in Bitcoin mining. Accordingly, Bitcoin mining will be an uneconomical activity for relatively scarce and relatively expensive quantum computers. It won't be like flipping a switch, so it won't bear heavily on the difficulty adjustment.
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October 03, 2019, 05:29:31 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

So your reasoning is the following.
You are long 10 BTC.  You short sell 1.

1)If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you lost on the short bitcoin, but actually you gained.
2) If BTC goes down, you are sad, but at least you can buy back your bitcoin, profit from it and alleviate your suffering.

THe reality is.
a)You are long 10 BTC.
b)You decide to sell 1 bitcoin.
c)You are long 9 bitcoin and some cash.
If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you gained. on those 9 bitcoin. Cash is the same.
If BTC goes down, you are sad, because you are losing on those 9 bitcoin. Then you decide to buy another bitcoin and you are long 10 bitcoin and some (less) cash. You are in a very similar position than point c. but with less cash to spend on more bitcoin buying.

It seems that your elaboration is largely correct, yet it should be considered that BTC prices tend to go up and down a quite a bit, but largely UP in the longer run.   So in that regard, it might just be better to merely buy and hold, but if you feel more comfortable employing some downward risk strategies, then you can be better off, and even have more bitcoin when the price does finally go up.  Of course, you have more bitcoin and less cash, but the value of your bitcoin is higher, so ultimately it still seems to me that your overall portfolio is stronger if you attempt to prepare your portfolio for either price direction - while presuming that in the longer run, BTC prices are going up (even if it takes 5 years or longer to accomplish such UP based on peaks and troughs that we are used to experiencing in bitcoin).


If you are trading with linear assets there's no other other way to sum all of your positions and think about only as a SUM. the worst think yopu can think is where you bought some corn and you have to sell it above that level to gain.

Hopefully, higher is the case with bitcoin, and surely we are investing in a risky and pioneering asset, so maybe part of the contribution to the space is appreciating that BTC might not go up, and in that sense, you end up losing money on your investment, even though you had invested in something that you had believed to have a positive future price potential.

I strongly disagree with d_eddie.
Even in highly volatile environment Mark To market is the best way to think of your trading position, because MtM has to do with the current price, so it has to do with the future movements.
If you think on yor P&L, you think where you traded the corn in the Past. Very dangerous.
When you trade you have to think only where you are headed to, not where you have been: is't like driving looking into the rearview mirror to decide where the road is headed....


I don't recall talking or reading about mark to market in this thread, so it might be a conceptualization that is lacking in this thread.   Surely, I am open to whether it applies to what we are doing, or whether we might be helped by further discussing it.  I think that whatever d_eddie has been doing has been profitable for him, and will likely continue to be profitable, whether it fits with some other kind of accounting theory or not.


- I let my long live because she will get back up there eventually! This might not be 100% rational, all right  Grin

This is actually 100% rational. HODLing is the best strategy to gain from Bitcoin!

I have my doubts regarding HODLing being the "best" strategy, even though it seems to be the easiest.  One of the most inevitable dynamics of bitcoin is that it ongoingly experiences decently large sizes of volatility.  So, engaging in various trading practices could cause both volatility insurance and an ability to profit from something that is nearly inevitable.  Of course, life might be less stressful and it might take less work to merely buy BTC and HODL BTC, and even if a large number of folks are likely to lose money and time from their trading efforts, there can still be more solid systems (and perhaps d_eddie has found one) that allows for greater returns (even accounting for fees and time spent) from employing such system rather than merely buying and holding.


EDIT: I just realised I replied to JJG. I don't know if I am ready for a wall of text!

Edit also:
You better be ready for another matter that has shown to be nearly inevitable.   Wink Wink
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October 03, 2019, 05:30:23 PM

I wonder what would happen to the price of Bitcoin once quantum computer technology advances. I suppose quantum miners would plummet the markets to the ground?  

Why would you think that?

I was thinking of a sudden pseudo-inflation of the coin supply caused by unimaginably fast mining capabilities would bring down the price. although, by that point we would probably have only a small amount left to mine so it would not matter, maybe?


The spike in the inflation rate couldn't last beyond the next difficulty adjustment.
It would "just" be the end for all the old (non quantum) miners thrown out of the market overnight.

I imagine the first group to target mining with QC would only need an hour to mine enough coins to drastically dilute the price. Remember the Russian physicists who got caught trying to mine with military tech?
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October 03, 2019, 05:32:02 PM

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

So your reasoning is the following.
You are long 10 BTC.  You short sell 1.

1)If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you lost on the short bitcoin, but actually you gained.
2) If BTC goes down, you are sad, but at least you can buy back your bitcoin, profit from it and alleviate your suffering.

THe reality is.
a)You are long 10 BTC.
b)You decide to sell 1 bitcoin.
c)You are long 9 bitcoin and some cash.
If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you gained. on those 9 bitcoin. Cash is the same.
If BTC goes down, you are sad, because you are losing on those 9 bitcoin. Then you decide to buy another bitcoin and you are long 10 bitcoin and some (less) cash. You are in a very similar position than point c. but with less cash to spend on more bitcoin buying.

Try to look at it another way:

You are long 10 BTC. You short sell 1.

BTC goes down. You close the short and 10% of your virtual losses on the long are recovered.

Then, EITHER

- BTC goes back up. When it gets back where you started, you still have the (real) profit made on the short.

OR

- BTC goes down some more. You're losing, but you're losing somewhat less. You have more margin - whether you want to risk some more, or you're just glad your liquidation is that little bit further away.

That's how I have used my contrarian positions until today, and I am glad I did.

The only think that is important is that you are long 9 BTC.
That's it, you can look as 10-1 11-2 100-91 or whatever.
 
All the profits and all the losses are real, it doesn't matter if they are realised or unrealised, they are real.
If you bought ATH in Dec 2018, your losses are real, even if you are still hodling.

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October 03, 2019, 05:33:01 PM

Right, in about two weeks (how long is the average difficulty change interval?) they could break havoc.
IF they manage to pull it off while coins are still being mined  Tongue
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October 03, 2019, 05:34:14 PM

I made a joke in Dutch.  I am excessively proud of this accomplishment.  

<preface: 6 beers before noon>

If I haven't low-key doxed myself already, my best friend passed early in life, from colon cancer. He was Dutch, and leaves behind a wife and child that we consider close-distant family - Spending American Thanksgiving with his wife and his son, who, for all intents and purposes, will be inheriting a nontrivial fortune upon my passing.

I don't know why I posted this just now.

I think I just really miss my Dutch friend.

No homo.


so sad! give you a huge hug! #nohomo
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October 03, 2019, 05:34:40 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

So your reasoning is the following.
You are long 10 BTC.  You short sell 1.

1)If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you lost on the short bitcoin, but actually you gained.
2) If BTC goes down, you are sad, but at least you can buy back your bitcoin, profit from it and alleviate your suffering.

THe reality is.
a)You are long 10 BTC.
b)You decide to sell 1 bitcoin.
c)You are long 9 bitcoin and some cash.
If BTC goes up, you are happy, because you gained. on those 9 bitcoin. Cash is the same.
If BTC goes down, you are sad, because you are losing on those 9 bitcoin. Then you decide to buy another bitcoin and you are long 10 bitcoin and some (less) cash. You are in a very similar position than point c. but with less cash to spend on more bitcoin buying.

Try to look at it another way:

You are long 10 BTC. You short sell 1.

BTC goes down. You close the short and 10% of your virtual losses on the long are recovered.

Then, EITHER

- BTC goes back up. When it gets back where you started, you still have the (real) profit made on the short.

OR

- BTC goes down some more. You're losing, but you're losing somewhat less. You have more margin - whether you want to risk some more, or you're just glad your liquidation is that little bit further away.

That's how I have used my contrarian positions until today, and I am glad I did.

The only think that is important is that you are long 9 BTC.
That's it, you can look as 10-1 11-2 100-91 or whatever.
 
All the profits and all the losses are real, it doesn't matter if they are realised or unrealised, they are real.
If you bought ATH in Dec 2018, your losses are real, even if you are still hodling.



I see now. If you count unrealized P&L as real, then it's just as you say. I still think it's called UNreal - ized for a reason.
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October 03, 2019, 05:35:18 PM

So... Quantum computer FUD has now entered WO thread? Roll Eyes
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October 03, 2019, 05:37:07 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)

I made a joke in Dutch.  I am excessively proud of this accomplishment. 

<preface: 6 beers before noon>

If I haven't low-key doxed myself already, my best friend passed early in life, from colon cancer. He was Dutch, and leaves behind a wife and child that we consider close-distant family - Spending American Thanksgiving with his wife and his son, who, for all intents and purposes, will be inheriting a nontrivial fortune upon my passing.

I don't know why I posted this just now.

I think I just really miss my Dutch friend.

No homo.


I always feel for people who have to life with good people/friends etc passing to early in life.....  Cry

I know leaving them won’t make the happy or whatever but the gesture you will make is very kind....
I know there will not be anything that could bring joy in these hard times, but I hope you find some good companion friendship IRL....

You have my best possible thoughts with you and I know many others feel the same way in this place!
Enjoy a small drink @these times and think of the best moments you had with your friend and his family!!!
I hope you will keep having good times and you will keep being a good friend to that family as I’m sure you will be!!

Be good my fried, it’s maybe a small thing, but this Dutch members you can consider to be a friend!

(Also nothing wrong with sharing a thing in here, as I met a few IRL, I know one of the members did shared a thing in here as well and when I met him IRL... I know he had a good feeling we caring about this matters)
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October 03, 2019, 05:41:14 PM

Right, in about two weeks (how long is the average difficulty change interval?) they could break havoc.
IF they manage to pull it off while coins are still being mined

No. Difficulty reset period is 2016 blocks. Which works out to two weeks when the average block interval is exactly 10 minutes.

If some New Technology bursts on the scene that can mine faster then the existing network, those 2016 blocks will be mined much faster than two weeks, at which point the new difficulty will be reset to take this new hash power into account, resetting back to ten-minute block intervals.

That assumes that such New Technology would be applied to Bitcoin mining in a step function -- machines at scale, as opposed to ramping up warehouses of machines one warehouse at a time.

However, quantum computing is not that New Technology to begin with.



So... Quantum computer FUD has now entered WO thread? Roll Eyes

again.

::le sigh::
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October 03, 2019, 05:41:20 PM

Sh*t as always

I would give u some merit but i have none.


Luckily.... your merit has been proven to have bad re-send value Roll Eyes


maybe i should post pics of my GF and mindless food to get some ?

And copy-past of shitmoon tweets.
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October 03, 2019, 05:54:45 PM

Sorry to hear that Bob. I have a good friend who was diagnosed yesterday. Terminal.  Valar morghulis  
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October 03, 2019, 05:56:34 PM



I see now. If you count unrealized P&L as real, then it's just as you say. I still think it's called UNreal - ized for a reason.

Very funny.
Merited.

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October 03, 2019, 05:58:58 PM

Hey guys, have you ever done some trading on both sides? That is, if you enter Long, do you protect your position in Short with some leverage? This Spanish-speaking Trader did it, the video is from 2018, but it seems to me that the adrenaline he feels is a lot! more when you do it with 100k!

https://i.imgur.com/Xv1Vx5v.png
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7p5UTPNPIs&t=14s


As Jesse Livermore did, it is a way to always be in the market, no matter which direction you are going.

Do you think it is convenient to do it right now in the market? Since the price is expected to increase, but if it falls, protect your position.

Obviously, to do this you have to have a lot of experience and try to suppress emotions to the fullest.

it do not make sense to me. if I buy I expect the price to increase and if I short with leverage I expect the price to decrease.

if I buy one BTC and the same time I short BTC with leverage then if the price will increase my short will get liquidated soon depending on my leverage. if the price decreases my short will get in profit but then it was useless to buy BTC because better buy after the short was closed in profit.

Indeed that strategy has no meaning.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short a bitcoin I am flat.
If I buy a bitcoin and then I short 2 bitcoin I am short 1 bitcoin (so why getting long a bitcoin in the first place?)
If I buy a bitcoin and then I shott  10 bitcoin I am short 9 bitcoin.... (again..)

This reasoning could be very different if there were options available to trade. But this is not the case.
I dismiss that video as bullshit.

Of course, I don't short bitcoin, but I do sell small amounts of BTC on the way up.   It seems to me that shorting can be employed merely to amplify the system that I already employ; however, such amplification is not so great as to overwhelm the longs including either not using stops, or putting the stops out so far as to have less chances of being manipulated out of the position.

Accordingly, the longs might be something like 10 bitcoin, but the shorts would be less than 2 bitcoins and perhaps even frequently less than 1 bitcoin.  In other words, the shorts are just a small fraction of the longs, and end up providing a kind of insurance against the longs, even while, overall, it would be more profitable for the BTC price to go up, rather than down.   

So, because of dickering around with shorts, there is NOT as much profits from when BTC's price finally does go up, but at the same time, profits are made when BTC's price goes down in a much greater way than merely selling a few BTC on the way up and buying back at lower prices.

whats the hell?Huh?
such a confidence. I thought you are a bot.
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October 03, 2019, 06:03:20 PM

Sorry to hear that Bob. I have a good friend who was diagnosed yesterday. Terminal.  Valar morghulis  

Sorry HM, really terrible. I hate cancer Sad
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October 03, 2019, 06:03:30 PM
Last edit: October 03, 2019, 06:42:23 PM by Gyrsur

Hey guys, have you ever done some trading on both sides? That is, if you enter Long, do you protect your position in Short with some leverage? This Spanish-speaking Trader did it, the video is from 2018, but it seems to me that the adrenaline he feels is a lot! more when you do it with 100k!

https://i.imgur.com/Xv1Vx5v.png
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7p5UTPNPIs&t=14s


As Jesse Livermore did, it is a way to always be in the market, no matter which direction you are going.

Do you think it is convenient to do it right now in the market? Since the price is expected to increase, but if it falls, protect your position.

Obviously, to do this you have to have a lot of experience and try to suppress emotions to the fullest.

Hedge at the start - Trading System

let's play it simple without leverage just 1 BTC positions in USD.

bid price is 8200
ask price is 8250
spread is 50

you sell (sl -250) at 8250 - from start it equals to -50 in profit
you buy (sl -250) at 8200 - from start it equals to -50 in profit

price goes to 8400 - sell liquidated with -250 profit - buy with +150 in profit
price must go to 8500 to be break-even (w/o fees for both positions)

or

price goes to 8000 - buy liquidated with -250 profit - sell with +150 in profit
price must go to 7900 to be break-even (w/o fees for both positions)

it's kind of break-out system with a range of 500 600 (w/o fees for both positions). there MUST be a range break-out > 300 to be profitable and ranging withing the range will increase the losses every time a sl is hit.

*correct me please if I did a calculation error

EDIT: in my eyes it's a poor system. better you have a range defined and buy above the range and sell below the range because then you will not add several losses if there is no break-out of the range for a specific time.
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October 03, 2019, 06:03:36 PM

We should see some BTC highs around the $8400 range,  That is where I would sell. We should then see a correction again to around the $8000 range but it is very possible that we reach lows around the $7800 range. If I was to sell I would put a buy in around the $7800 range. Then I would watch the market. If it seems like a sharp decrease in price I would possibly even wait for the $7500 range.. We will see BTC around the $7500 range atleast 1 more time this week!


My October 5th closing price will be $8642!
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October 03, 2019, 06:09:55 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

Sorry to hear that Bob. I have a good friend who was diagnosed yesterday. Terminal.  Valar morghulis  

Sorry HM, really terrible. I hate cancer Sad

Yeah TBH it’s his wife I feel for the most
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October 03, 2019, 06:10:20 PM

I have been posting the 4h chart for a day or two. So here is my daily chart analysis regarding the direction.


Tonight's close is really crucial if you see the RSI. we sort of just edged out of the oversold zone but couldn't hold it and went right down into it again. If until the close of the candle we can get back into 20-80 RSI range then definitely there is a change in trend. Also you can see the MACD histogram going down which means MACD crossover can take place in a day or two but for that RSI needs to close above the 20 mark. We currently aren't exactly bearish but not even bullish. If the close is below 20 & we break the 8000 support then get ready for a shakedown until the edge of this parallel downward channel. which may be somewhere around 6k. All on All currently you can stay out of the market even the 4h chart is somewhat not giving anything the double bottom miserably failed as we break below the neckline. Here is that analysis:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188889.msg52607399#msg52607399
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October 03, 2019, 06:32:27 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Sorry to hear that Bob. I have a good friend who was diagnosed yesterday. Terminal.  Valar morghulis  

Sorry HM, really terrible. I hate cancer Sad

Yeah TBH it’s his wife I feel for the most

My moms on Hospice, she has stage 4 COPD and Emphazema, I have a 9 year old daughter. I hate it for her the most. She has no life. We cannot ever just take a trip somewhere as she requires 24 hour care.. I agree I hate it for the wife. It is hard on the family that and bills begin to pile up. It gets really stressful.  

My definition of a vacation is camping or renting a cabin 20 min away from my house. I have to stay close enough in case of an emergency (She falls or something) i can go get her up. I have not been to see my dad 2000 miles away in almost 4 years. I have noone to help me. But I promised I would never put her in a home. So now my daughter and I have to suffer because of it.  I wish him  and his family the best of luck!
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