Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hv_]

For those that want to go to an exciting conference:

https://www.anarchapulco.com/

You may know one of the speakers that will be announced soon.

 

That's Jeff Berwick's (The dollar vigilante) event iirc.  I used to watch his content a couple years ago before he started reminding me of that coked out friend who lost his mind. Made some good calls in Bitcoin, at least I'll give him that.
Should be a good party for sure with a lot of familiar faces.  

What will you be speaking on?  

I liked Jeff Berwick too, until he got too close to Roger Ver and became an all-out bcasher.

Annos anarchos and / or criminals never have changed the world for good - so fine to ignore both

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[dragonvslinux]

Current Weekly outlook: TD Sequential 9 currently up for grabs this week, haven't seen one of these since April 2019 and July 2018.
Full moon didn't do sh*t to decide, hoping this week can define a direction for the following weeks/months.
Looking at three potential scenarios long-term, as shown by A (bullish TD 9), B (wedge breakdown) and C ("bullish TD 9).

Part 9: TD Sequential 9 Next Week To Decide Direction?
..


Source: TradingView, October 20th 2019

Own work: dragononcrypto

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $8,243a
It seems we are recovering the price?

[realr0ach]

I liked Jeff Berwick too, until he got too close to Roger Ver and became an all-out bcasher.

I'm not sure how he hasn't figured out anarchy isn't a real 'thing', although Elwar hasn't either.  If you advocate for the complete abolition of government, all you get is some Liberian cannibal warlord strongman stepping in and taking over, then you have another new government you didn't want that's even worse than the one before.  Anarchy is nothing but an extremely brief, transitory state.  People don't adopt it due to the saying "the devil you know is better than the one you don't."

As for libertardianism, it's not really possible to practice libertardianism in a closed ecosystem, which is what the earth is.  You would need an ever expanding frontier to homestead on to do that.  Without an ever expanding frontier, you have a closed ecosystem, caged deathmatch where people constantly band together to avoid being exploited by the local psychopaths or the ones down the street, then you have government.  An ever expanding frontier does exist - it's called space, which may or may not be accessible by humans.  

[jackbauercsgo]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

And what should we expect from this?

[realr0ach]

He's claiming the price should go up, but all that's really happened over the last several months is the jackass Chinese Bitcoin mining monopoly attempting to rig the price where it will still be profitable for them post-halving so they don't have to simultaneously shut down every miner they have right when the halving ticks.  In other words, the Bitcoin market is entirely fake.  More manipulated and fake than even the paper metals market.  If only there was a hero to bring the pain to the Chinese market fraud:

[jojo69]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

[jackbauercsgo]

Back to price analysis....

3.5 month parabolic run at the initial stages of breaking down  

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PtdtsMU7/

And what should we expect from this?

Parabolic breaks almost always lead to

1) Strong retracements back (~85% - 60% if I recall, don't have the stats in front of me atm)

2) Macro trend reversals (think of bitcoin run ups and what happens, like after btc hit $20k)

[Dabs]

We still have a lot of oceans to be our ever expanding frontier. We don't need to go to space for a long time yet.

[jackbauercsgo]

My personal expectation:

1) price retraces to ~$16k to $20k as we approach halving  <--  this implies like 6 month for a ~2x from here

2) parabolic price explosion upward won't occur until *after* halving, where price is strongly impacted by both regular users & speculators. 

3) For what it's worth, I think just about all alt/btc ratios will dump *until* we hit a new btc/usd ATH.  At that point, as BTC climbs to brand new highs, we'll see our first decent alt season in a while.  BTC will be the only long term coin worth holding, but alt seasons can help grow your stack.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

We still have a lot of oceans to be our ever expanding frontier. We don't need to go to space for a long time yet.

Good luck with the salty waters and may be with filtering them. We are getting ready to leave the earth soon.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

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1
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All sounds good to me!

[Icygreen]

Breaking up again 8.3k observed

shit, back to 8.2 before I could post

[Dabs]

We still have a lot of oceans to be our ever expanding frontier. We don't need to go to space for a long time yet.

Good luck with the salty waters and may be with filtering them. We are getting ready to leave the earth soon.

Granted, its not easy, but it's a lot easier than trying to do it in space. At least in the oceans you have some resources and you're still close enough to go back to land to do a little trading or whatever. You eventually have to deal with other people and society.

The consequences for something going wrong in space is bigger than if something goes wrong in the ocean.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

The consequences for something going wrong in space is bigger than if something goes wrong in the ocean.

I got it earth people but do not forget we are the pioneers who are going to take the risk for better future of the people in Earth. I am sure some day we will conquer mars too.

Bitcoin force 🤪

[Elwar]

We still have a lot of oceans to be our ever expanding frontier. We don't need to go to space for a long time yet.

Good luck with the salty waters and may be with filtering them. We are getting ready to leave the earth soon.

We had a water maker on the seastead. It put out 60 liters per day of fresh water. All run on solar.

[Elwar]

Is there anything being done with Colored Coin development anymore? Or did all of the people developing those jump to shitcoins thinking that everyone would rush to their new off chain "solution".

Looking to use the Bitcoin blockchain to record property ownership for the new seasteads.

[kellrobinson]

I don't know why, but I now feel the urge to post another one:



Source: Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth

This is an uberbullish log-log graph (log axis on values, log axis on time):

It predicts that the price will not reach $100 000 before 2021, but it also predicts that the price will not be lower than $100 000 by 2028. It predicts that the price will not reach $1 000 000 before 2028, but also that the price will not be lower than that after 2037. The model predicts ever increasing prices, although at a slower and slower rate.

Hope you like, Mic

Looking at the graph the maximum price before 2021 is well under 100k (90k).

Other than that: cool graph. Seems to be a bit more on the conservative side when compared to the past.

The concept of putting time on a log scale is... interesting.
Generally, you would use a log scale for something that accumulates, grows or shrinks.  Such things as stock and commodity prices, the mass of a pile of rocks, and absolute temperatures Kelvin don't exhibit negative values; they have a well defined zero point, and positive values are the only values to consider.  It makes sense to use logarithms on scales where zero is fixed, accounting for changes in proportion.
Time doesn't have this proportional quality.  One doesn't say there was twice as much time in the year 2000 as there was in the year 1000.  And to use a log scale at all, you have to set a point for time zero.
Coinmonks didn't state what point he uses as time zero for his log axis, which led me to do a little mathematical forensics on his chart to find out.
You'll notice that the distance from 2011 to 2012 is the same as the distance from 2013 to 2015.  so:
(2012-t_z)/(2011-t_z) = (2015-t_z)/(2013-t_z)
and
time zero = 2009

edit:  InTheLoop made a comment on Coinmonk's Medium post that bears directly on the matter of defining bitcoin's time zero for the price model

Thanks Harold. You are using time in days since 2009, likely based on bitcoin’s genesis block on 3 Jan 2009. However, in the beginning there wasn’t a great deal of trading and thus price discovery,
so it’s natural to introduce the starting day as an additional parameter in the model. Together with slope and intercept this leads to a three-parameter power-law model, exactly what I have described in my article.
That shift parameter then turns out to be 312 days before 17 July 2010 (the origin of your and my price data), so based on current full historic data, bitcoin’s starting date of the power-law is estimated at 8 September 2009.
Using such 3-parameter fit will increase the quality of the fit even further. See: https://medium.com/@intheloop/when-moon-rational-growth-ranges-for-bitcoin-ffaa94c9d484

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

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What's up!
Good to see you brother. Hope everything is going well?